Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by Strategery

A little off topic here but did anyone else notice that N. Illinois dropped from 3 to 46? How in the world does that happen when they beat Ball St. by 3 TDs?

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This man needs some rep for his sig line. Just sayin'.

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Originally Posted by Strategery

A little off topic here but did anyone else notice that N. Illinois dropped from 3 to 46? How in the world does that happen when they beat Ball St. by 3 TDs? (I'm assuming the number in green on the far right is their previous rank. Am I wrong about this?)

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green is their rating in the BCS component. I have no idea how they are that high, it boggles the mind.

DIMIN_CURVE and PREDICTOR are two alternate methodologies of calculating a predictive value, which are averaged into RATING

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Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan

green is their rating in the BCS component. I have no idea how they are that high, it boggles the mind.

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Yeah... Even though the "PURE_ELO" rating doesn't take the score margins into account, you would think that it still considers the overall strength of schedule somehow. If you recall, when he first introduced this new rating metric, several of the FCS teams were coming in very high. He tweaked something to drop them out. I never heard if it was truly an error or if it was just a tweak in the formula to prevent teams playing lower level competition to be rated that high.

Assuming this is not an error, and NIU wins the final games on the schedule, they could throw a monkey wrench into everything.

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Originally Posted by MankatoBison

Yes. Idk why people would even get a little mad about asking?

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In a round about way it was a personal attack on me as I attempted to start the campaign. Probably shouldnt have taken it that way and I was more upset at myself for even reading his post as I have that poster blocked. others said my point more poetically than I did, just baffled someone cant realize how much it would mean for a FCS team to actually be ranked on a bunch of different levels.

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Going back to 1998(the earliest date I can find from USA Today), it looks like Villanova has the record so far for highest final Sagarin rating(30 in 2009). NDSU should be able to top that this season if they win out.


98 64 Richmond
99 46 Georgia Southern
00 52 Georgia Southern
01 57 Montana
02 61 Western Kentucky
03 40 Delaware
04 36 James Madison
05 69 Appalachian State
06 84 Montana
07 44 Appalachian State
08 41 Richmond
09 30 Villanova
10 52 Delaware
11 37 North Dakota State
12 35 North Dakota State
13 24 North Dakota State (so far)

(all numbers are the regular rating)

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Someone posted on AGS going back a few more years and Marshall ended one season ('96?) at 21. So we've got to keep winning and hope that our season's opponents keep winning too in order to crack that nut.

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

Someone posted on AGS going back a few more years and Marshall ended one season ('96?) at 21. So we've got to keep winning and hope that our season's opponents keep winning too in order to crack that nut.

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Randy Moss and Chad Pennington in 96. Wow! Best FCS combo ever. The NFL couldn't stop them!

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Originally Posted by gabe

Randy Moss and Chad Pennington in 96. Wow! Best FCS combo ever. The NFL couldn't stop them!

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Actually, Pennington was red-shirted that year in favor of Eric Kresser, an FBS transfer from Florida.

The way to stop them would be to keep the QB scrambling and on his back. ;-)

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Originally Posted by EndZoneQB

We can't have both? The polls have NOTHING to do with bowl games. What did it matter that we had GameDay? Same reason why it matters that we are in the top 25. If we can walk into a kids living room and tell them sure, we play FCS, but you can play for a "top 25 program". That's HUGE. Mini-Bama huge....we need to keep this snowball rolling downhill...we have something special.

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FIFY
10 char

Interestingly, per Sagarin's Predictor score, only one team would be within two touchdowns of NDSU at the FargoDome right now. Eastern Illinois is closest and would still be an 8.5 point dog. Next is Southeast Louisiana at 14.3 points. Sure... it's an imperfect computer model, but it still predicts the correct winner approx 75-80% of the time for all Division I games.

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

Interestingly, per Sagarin's Predictor score, only one team would be within two touchdowns of NDSU at the FargoDome right now. Eastern Illinois is closest and would still be an 8.5 point dog. Next is Southeast Louisiana at 14.3 points. Sure... it's an imperfect computer model, but it still predicts the correct winner approx 75-80% of the time for all Division I games.

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http://nationalsportsrankings.com/in...n=com_oneonone says about the same thing when I do a 100 game scenario (just for the sake of conversation)