Interesting that NDSU dropped from 32% to 31% by winning.
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Interesting that NDSU dropped from 32% to 31% by winning.
UNI also won. That could be it. Bisonaudit?Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUBowler
Yes, Sagarin thinks they're significantly better than PSU, but gave PSU a substantial chance of getting by them on home field and bye week.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Pep Band
Ahh obviously.
Thanks
I'd laugh if Colgate wins it all
Team.................... Semi.. Final
Jacksonville State.. 70.6% 25.9%
Sam Houston State 29.4%.. 7.4%
North Dakota State 86.5% 61.7%
Richmond............. 13.5%.. 5.0%
Team.................... Final
Jacksonville State.. 36.5%
North Dakota State 63.5%
Is that with us getting the home field kicker? Because...you know...Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Does Sagarin take into account a team being from the Southeast? If not, invalid.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
How accurate has this predictor been this year on the outcomes?
I'm 6/6 using his predictor in bowl games so far. Tied for first in a Texas group.Quote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
Almost bit it on the app st game but I don't think it counts for the 2 defensive tds, safety, 2 missed fgs that app gave to Ohio.
I'm sticking with it
FiFY. Apparently, it really matters that NDSU is finally playing a SE team in the championship rather than the second round, quarters or semis.Quote:
Originally Posted by EPBison
a 2:1 odds to win a nuetral site game is uh, pretty good. Like, may as well sneak champagne into the stadium good.
Guess I forgot about this for a couple weeks.
Sagarin's 2015 Playoff Championship Prediction
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
51 North Dakota State 74.79
111 Montana 58.09 +14.01 -3.00 -17.01
165 Weber State 47.61 +29.87 +27.00 -2.87
142 North Dakota 50.39 +27.09 +25.00 -2.09
90 South Dakota State 63.91 +8.19 +21.00 +12.81
78 Northern Iowa 67.03 +10.45 +3.00 -7.45
146 South Dakota 50.07 +27.41 -3.00 -30.41
134 Indiana State 51.82 +20.28 +14.00 -6.28
122 Southern Illinois 54.81 +17.29 +6.00 -11.29
114 Western Illinois 57.35 +20.13 +52.00 +31.87
110 Youngstown State 58.19 +13.91 +3.00 -10.91
223 Missouri State 31.39 +46.09 +55.00 +8.91
111 Montana 58.09 +19.39 +31.00 +11.61
78 Northern Iowa 67.03 +10.45 +10.00 -0.45
100 Richmond 60.76 +16.72 +26.00 +9.28
64 Jacksonville State 70.13 +4.66
Total Diff: -14.28
Home Field 2.69
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 51 74.79 North Dakota State
2 64 70.13 Jacksonville State
3 77 67.25 Illinois State
4 78 67.03 Northern Iowa
5 90 63.91 South Dakota State
6 95 62.31 Chattanooga
7 100 60.76 Richmond
8 101 60.39 Sam Houston State
9 104 59.77 Southern Utah
10 105 59.66 Harvard
11 108 58.42 McNeese State
12 109 58.31 Portland State
13 110 58.19 Youngstown State
14 111 58.09 Montana
15 112 57.81 Dartmouth
16 113 57.75 James Madison
17 114 57.35 Western Illinois
18 116 57.06 The Citadel
19 117 56.69 Coastal Carolina
20 120 56.32 William & Mary
21 121 56.25 Charleston Southern
22 122 54.81 Southern Illinois
23 126 52.81 Villanova
24 127 52.69 Samford
25 128 52.56 Western Carolina
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 79.14 7
2 SEC 77.54 11
3 PAC-12 75.74 10
4 BIG TEN 75.47 9
5 ACC 75.34 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.19 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.61 5
8 MWC 61.14 1
9 MAC 59.83 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.33 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.45 2
12 SUN BELT 54.34 1
13 BIG SKY 48.36 1
14 SOUTHERN 46.82 1
15 COLONIAL 45.90 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 45.26 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 44.48 1
18 BIG SOUTH 42.48 1
19 SOUTHLAND 40.41 1
20 PATRIOT 36.09 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.30 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.59 1
23 SWAC 26.88 1
24 PIONEER 25.01 1
Ok all of you math wizards................
Not that it matters but, how could the computer say that NDSU would be the 3rd team in the MAC but 1st in the Mountain West if the MW is a point and a half higher than the MAC?
Again.........don't really care about ranking, just curious how the math works there.
As you (whomever) answer.........please keep in mind who is asking dat der queschun.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped.../dd/Cletus.gif
I think that would be a case where the MAC has 3 good teams and the rest well.... stink, where as the MW is top to bottom more even, but the best team is not ranked as high as NDSU.Quote:
Originally Posted by IzzyFlexion
I haven't looked at all the numbers to confirm that it is actually correct, but I'll assume that it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by IzzyFlexion
The simplest way to explain it might be that all of the teams in the Mountain West are a bit better than the teams in the MAC overall. Enough that the average for the MWC is a bit higher. However, the MAC has a couple teams that are standing out above the others in the conference, which happen to be rated higher than NDSU. The MWC, on the other hand, doesn't have any teams rated higher than NDSU, but they also don't have as many teams rated as poorly as the MAC.
Does that make sense? The actual formula for calculating the conference rating is just slightly more complex (something like dropping the highest and lowest scores before calculating the average), but ultimately it is a measure of the average team strength in the conference.
Beat me to it. And probably said it more in Izzy's terms anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by RasterImage
Keep in mind that there is a pretty wide standard deviation in these figures. I won't bet against the Bison, but you might not want to be sneaking the champagne into the stadium quite yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by mnriverbison
With a roughly 14 point standard deviation, a <5 point difference in Sagarin ratings means there's still a pretty good shot at Jacksonville State having more points at the end of the game. I won't be surprised at all to see a game like last year against Ill State. Though, I also wouldn't be surprised if we keep Jax St <20 and we score >30.
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Originally Posted by RasterImage
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Originally Posted by thebootfitter
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Originally Posted by thebootfitter
dooly noted......thanky
http://starsmedia.ign.com/stars/imag...ns_picture.jpg
And NDSU would be #1 in the MWC by a hair.Quote:
Originally Posted by RasterImage
51. NDSU
52. Boise State
56. San Diego State
I don't know if this visual helps at all, but you can see the MWC(red) is grouped a little north of center. While the MAC(blue) has more outliers. And the MAC has more bottom outliers than top.
41 MAC
44 MAC
51 NDSU
52 MWC
56 MWC
67 MAC
71 MWC
75 MWC
76 MAC
82 MAC
91 MWC
94 MAC
96 MWC middle MVC team
99 MAC middle MAC team
102 MWC middle MVC team
107 MWC
119 MAC
123 MWC
124 MWC
131 MAC
138 MAC
156 MWC
158 MAC
160 MAC
166 MWC
186 MAC
Sagarin update: NDSU = #51, JSU = #64Quote:
Originally Posted by BisManBison
NDSU lost 2 games. NDSU lost to Montana # 111 and NDSU lost to S. Dakota # 146
JSU lost 1 game (in OT) to Auburn #36
Did I read that right? Help me understand this, please.
JSU's wins are against teams that suck. That counts too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
It doesn't care about counting Ws and Ls. It cares about three things and three things only. Location, quality of opponent, and scoring margin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
Northwest Missouri didn't lose any games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
If you want to overvalue W-L records, then you probably should stick to Massey. Massey has Jacksonville State rated higher than NDSU... of course, they have the Northwest Missouri State rated higher than Jacksonville State.
So it does matter they are from the southeast!!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
We. Are. Screwed.
Because JSU is not NDSU. The Bison have a secret weight factor in there just for being the Bison. It sucks if you aren't NDSU, but now you get to see if it matters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
Maybe JSU got points deducted for fat lineman. And its OK for me to say this because I am a fat guy and us fat guys always get points deducted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
*Unless we are in the cannonball contest at the pool.
Average Sagarin rating of a JSU opponent 151Quote:
Originally Posted by gumby013
Avaerage Sagarin of an NDSU opponent 121
NDSU only played 2 teams with a lower Sagarin than JSU's average. USD and Weber.
Good thing I didn't wear sweat pants to work today or my Bison boner would be a major distraction. Seriously, having seen this and watched Apply state in their bowl game last weekend, I'm ready to go Mountain West. Even if we don't beat JSU, we are primed for nothing but FCS runs. It eventually goes from fun to beating up on people just because we can. That bowl game looked fun BTW no matter what anyone says.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
See Sagarin ratings for the two teams which beat the Bison. How can this be explained?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bison 4 Life
What needs to be explained? NDSU has 2 losses far worse than JSU's and are still ranked higher. Thats what we're trying to tell you. Your wins suck, your conference sucked, every week hurts you while ever week helps NDSU gain distance from JSU despite having 1 more crappy loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
I mean, if JSU played NDSU's schedule...do you think theyd have the same amount of losses as NDSU?
NDSU has a special factor no one else gets. Until the Bison see three or four losses, they will always be ranked ahead of everyone in FCS in Sagarin. That's how it goes. I am not sure even if JSU wins they can score enough to overcome the Bison in the Sagarin ratings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
You really cant figure this out??Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
Dynamism. Since we are talking about really young people for whom the course of three months and what, eleven or fourteen games, is quite a pile of experience then it might be more useful to compare recent history. Say just the playoffs for example. Not sure what it will tell us but I think it might be a more accurate reflection of the local trend than looking at the muddle of the entire season. Just my $0.02.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
Massey lost all credibility for me when it rated Harvard as the #1 FCS team at one point this past Fall.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony
There are extra factors added in for each of our four FCS championships---that is what keeps us ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie
Sagarin has this at us by 4. What's the line currently at?
5Dimes has us at -3.5Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Team.................... Final
Jacksonville State.. 36.8%
North Dakota State 63.2%
NDSU -4.5
Tightened up a fraction on bowl results thru Jan 2.
'Tis likely to be a jim-dandy of a game!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit