Sagarin says

Let the number crunching begin anew.

2012 Week 3

Code:

---

                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 53        North Dakota State        73.73                       
236        Robert Morris                30.03    +46.70    +52.00    +5.30
134        Colorado State                55.13          +15.60    +15.00    +0.60
240        Prairie View A&M        25.46          +51.27               
 77        Northern Iowa                68.36          +2.37               
 86        Youngstown State        66.65          +10.08               
136        Indiana State                54.39          +22.34               
160        South Dakota                50.64          +23.09               
192        Southern Illinois        43.31          +33.42               
141        Missouri State                53.77          +16.96               
142        South Dakota State        53.70          +23.03               
 91        Illinois State                64.23          +6.50               
                                       
178        Western Illinois        46.00

---

Conferences

Code:

---

1. MVFC      57.01
2. Southern  53.78
3. Big Sky    53.30
4. CAA        52.14

---

This is where we belong...in the top 40. There's a very visible different between us and the rest of the FCS field.

Same with the core of the FBS field. Just the very elite are above us. For sure, we can be upset.

The depth of athletes and the system have really made an impact.

Our defense would keep us in the game with anyone...and we know the game plan when we have the lead and the ball.

Sagarin's predictions for week 4:

Code:

---

                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 59        North Dakota State        72.33                       
228        Robert Morris                32.38    +43.36    +52.00    +8.64
131        Colorado State                55.76          +13.16    +15.00    +1.84
239        Prairie View A&M        27.50          +48.24               
 83        Northern Iowa                66.96          + 1.96               
 90        Youngstown State        64.72          +11.02               
144        Indiana State                53.26          +22.48               
145        South Dakota                52.92          +19.41               
158        Southern Illinois        50.54          +25.20               
181        Missouri State                46.91          +22.01               
136        South Dakota State        55.08          +20.66               
114        Illinois State                60.32          + 8.60               
                                       
184        Western Illinois        45.26                       

        Home                        3.41

---

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

Code:

---

59  North Dakota State
 70  Georgia Southern
 83  Northern Iowa
 85  Eastern Washington
 90  Youngstown State
 91  James Madison
 98  Cal Poly
100  Wofford
101  Old Dominion
102  Montana

---

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

Code:

---

1.  MVFC        56.19
2.  Colonial        55.19
3.  Southern        54.42
4.  Big Sky        53.40

---

Sagarin confuses me. Why is GSU so high?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HandoEX

Sagarin confuses me. Why is GSU so high?

---

Where is The Citadel after their smoking of App State and the GSU win?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HandoEX

Sagarin confuses me. Why is GSU so high?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by EndZoneQB

Where is The Citadel after their smoking of App State and the GSU win?

---

I was thinking th same, Massey is worse in this weeks rankings

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by EndZoneQB

Where is The Citadel after their smoking of App State and the GSU win?

---

The Citadel is setting at 111 in the Predictor ranking. That puts them around 15th in FCS.

The problem with all computer rankings is data. This early in the season, there isn't enough data from the current season to do anything close to an accurate prediction. So Sagarin uses data from last season. Each week, the data from last season is used less and less until there's enough collected data from the current season to get rid of it altogether. That will come in another week or three. Until then, GSU is getting a significant bump from their solid performance last year. And The Citadel started in a bit of a hole for the opposite reason. It will all work out in time.

The Bison kick ass in both time periods, of course.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

The Citadel is setting at 111 in the Predictor ranking. That puts them around 15th in FCS.

The problem with all computer rankings is data. This early in the season, there isn't enough data from the current season to do anything close to an accurate prediction. So Sagarin uses data from last season. Each week, the data from last season is used less and less until there's enough collected data from the current season to get rid of it altogether. That will come in another week or three. Until then, GSU is getting a significant bump from their solid performance last year. And The Citadel started in a bit of a hole for the opposite reason. It will all work out in time.

The Bison kick ass in both time periods, of course.

---

another hole in the sagarins is the omission of lower-division teams in the ratings. Since the ratings only take into account division I games, those teams playing, say, 1-10 transitioning Naia schools enjoy an artificially inflated ranking and strength of schedule since those lower tier opponents don't pull down the ranking like playing a lower tier d I does.

UNI is sitting there at #3 in FCS yet they have no DI wins. Not sure I would want to be in their shoes having to take 7 of 8 MVFC wins to make the post-season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BisonNeil

UNI is sitting there at #3 in FCS yet they have no DI wins yet. Not sure I would want to be in their shoes having to take 7 of 8 MVFC wins to make the post-season.

---

Especially when they go to YSU next week missing two Starting LB's, then we go there the following week, no rest between big games

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tjbison

Especially when they go to YSU next week missing two Starting LB's, then we go there the following week, no rest between big games

---

We could potentially knock UNI out of the playoffs in week 5 of the season, just think how sweet that would be.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

We could potentially knock UNI out of the playoffs in week 5 of the season, just think how sweet that would be.

---

That would be awesome

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

We could potentially knock UNI out of the playoffs in week 5 of the season, just think how sweet that would be.

---

If NDSU wins that game, and UNI then misses playoffs and has a largely great year outside of this, I think the AD and the President at UNI should have their heads on the chopping block for what they did to that team. Better to resign with honor, than be responsible for crapping on your own athletes due to money woes.

How can UNI even keep their coach with such terrible support?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

If NDSU wins that game, and UNI then misses playoffs and has a largely great year outside of this, I think the AD and the President at UNI should have their heads on the chopping block for what they did to that team. Better to resign with honor, than be responsible for crapping on your own athletes due to money woes.

How can UNI even keep their coach with such terrible support?

---

If they only miss by one victory, it's a little more difficult to crap on the AD and coach, as Savanah State backed out very late to play FSU, which left UNI with limited possibilities and a DII game. But I will agree both Wisco and Iowa wasn't the best move.

UNI is in a much different situation than we are. They have Iowa and Iowa State to contend with for their fan base.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CaBisonFan

UNI is in a much different situation than we are. They have Iowa and Iowa State to contend with for their fan base.

---

Hambone made an excellent point and I had forgotten the Savanah State angle (even with all the terrible ESPN coverage). With that said, they still scheduled those two FBS big 10 games, and largely boxed themselves in. Perhaps they should have taken a "bullet" and offered to travel for an FCS guarantee game (if a bigger money team open), or better yet, travel for a home and home with an FCS team. I wonder if they even entertained axing a home game? (Would have loved how they would have had to spin that.)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

We could potentially knock UNI out of the playoffs in week 5 of the season, just think how sweet that would be.

---

We need to storm their field if this happens.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DjKyRo

We need to storm their field if this happens.

---

I'd rather act like we expected to win.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlueBisonRock

I'd rather act like we expected to win.

---

We do, which is why we're planning on storming their field.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DjKyRo

We do, which is why we're planning on storming their field.

---

Good way to start a fight. Drunk fans, arch rival fans storming their field...what could possibly go wrong?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DjKyRo

We do, which is why we're planning on storming their field.

---

I like the game we stormed the field last year. Let's save it. We are supposed to beat UNI, IMO. The Number 1 team in the country doesn't storm other team's fields. Other teams fan's try to plan out storming ours IF they can upset the Bison.

Plus it would still be possible for them to win the autobid for the conference as they would only have 2 conference losses even though they could not get to 7 D1 wins. You never know what happens in the Valley.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

Good way to start a fight. Drunk fans, arch rival fans storming their field...what could possibly go wrong?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

---

We storm the field. Get beat down (cause we are like Ghandi), then we sue the shit out of UNI's athletic department and BAM! they lose all that money that they got for those toe-to-toe contests with Iowa and Wisky.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

Good way to start a fight. Drunk fans, arch rival fans storming their field...what could possibly go wrong?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

---

Imagine Lakes running out to the 50 yard line and slamming a football down on the UNI logo like Terrell Owens did in Dallas back in the day. Hate to give the guy the idea, but that would be pretty hilarious. Even more so if Clenz came running out and leveled him after he did it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JSUBison

Imagine Lakes running out to the 50 yard line and slamming a football down on the UNI logo like Terrell Owens did in Dallas back in the day. Hate to give the guy the idea, but that would be pretty hilarious. Even more so if Clenz came running out and leveled him after he did it.

---

And then they both end up in jail and a bromance behind bars ensues.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by roper1313

I like the game we stormed the field last year. Let's save it. We are supposed to beat UNI, IMO. The Number 1 team in the country doesn't storm other team's fields. Other teams fan's try to plan out storming ours IF they can upset the Bison.

---

Just like Barry Sanders. Cross the goal line...turn and hand the ball to the ref...head back to sidelines. Act like you've been there before. There is something to be said for this.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BisonTeacher

Just like Barry Sanders. Cross the goal line...turn and hand the ball to the ref...head back to sidelines. Act like you've been there before. There is something to be said for this.

---

Exactly!!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BisonTeacher

Just like Barry Sanders. Cross the goal line...turn and hand the ball to the ref...head back to sidelines. Act like you've been there before. There is something to be said for this.

---

+1000..............

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BisonTeacher

Just like Barry Sanders. Cross the goal line...turn and hand the ball to the ref...head back to sidelines. Act like you've been there before. There is something to be said for this.

---

:):):):)!!!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JustinTyem

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

---

uMass is having a reaaaallly rough go at it.

I was looking back through this thread and last season, Sagarin wasn't "well connected" until the middle of October so we probably have several more weeks to go before his model is running exclusively on data from the current season.

Gotta laugh at how Savannah State has the hardest/best schedule ranking (depending on how you look at it), lol.

Sagarin's predictions for week 5:

Code:

---

                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 57        North Dakota State        73.00                       
226        Robert Morris                32.72          +42.70    +52.00    + 9.30
127        Colorado State                57.40          +13.18    +15.00        + 1.82
237        Prairie View A&M        27.05          +48.37    +59.00        +10.63
 86        Northern Iowa                65.52          + 5.06               
 82        Youngstown State        66.08          + 9.34               
166        Indiana State                50.28          +25.14               
156        South Dakota                51.59          +21.41               
155        Southern Illinois        52.29          +23.13               
187        Missouri State                45.33          +25.25               
113        South Dakota State        59.86          +15.56               
 99        Illinois State                62.70          + 7.88               
                                       
193        Western Illinois        42.74                       
                                       
        Home                        2.42

---

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

Code:

---

57  North Dakota State
 80  Delaware
 82  Youngstown State
 86  Northern Iowa
 90  Georgia Southern
 94  Eastern Washington
 95  James Madison
 99  Illinois State
101  Wofford
105  Cal Poly

---

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

Code:

---

1.  MVFC        56.80
2.  Colonial        55.13
3.  Big Sky        53.76
4.  Southern        53.23

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Sagarin's predictions for week 5:

Code:

---

                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 57        North Dakota State        73.00                       
226        Robert Morris                32.72          +42.70    +52.00    + 9.30
127        Colorado State                57.40          +13.18    +15.00        + 1.82
237        Prairie View A&M        27.05          +48.37    +59.00        +10.63
 86        Northern Iowa                65.52          + 5.06               
 82        Youngstown State        66.08          + 9.34               
166        Indiana State                50.28          +25.14               
156        South Dakota                51.59          +21.41               
155        Southern Illinois        52.29          +23.13               
187        Missouri State                45.33          +25.25               
113        South Dakota State        59.86          +15.56               
 99        Illinois State                62.70          + 7.88               
                                       
193        Western Illinois        42.74                       
                                       
        Home                        2.42

---

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

Code:

---

57  North Dakota State
 80  Delaware
 82  Youngstown State
 86  Northern Iowa
 90  Georgia Southern
 94  Eastern Washington
 95  James Madison
 99  Illinois State
101  Wofford
105  Cal Poly

---

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

Code:

---

1.  MVFC        56.80
2.  Colonial        55.13
3.  Big Sky        53.76
4.  Southern        53.23

---

---

Hammer, since I am dumb, how much is it saying we will beat UNI by.....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Hammer, since I am dumb, how much is it saying we will beat UNI by.....

---

5.06 pts......

that's precisely wrong - stupid computers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Hammer, since I am dumb, how much is it saying we will beat UNI by.....

---

5 points. All you have to do is look at the prediction column. Home field advantage is already calculated in. But, as bisonaudit would say, 5 points is well within the margin for Sagarin*. IOW, we're favored, but it could easily go against us. Nothing we don't already know.


*I believe the margin is something like 14 points. So us losing by 9, winning by 5, or winning by 19 are all about as likely. Or something like that. I'm a music major and not a statistician after all.


Here's what the columns mean:
Sagarin - this is the PREDICTOR column from Sagarin's rankings(the one on the far right side - it takes into account margin of victory)
Predict - this is the NDSU number minus the opponent number and plus or minus the home field advantage(or not in the case of USD)
Result - this how much the Bison actually won(or lost) the game by; obviously this column doesn't get filled in until after the game
Difference - this is how accurate Sagarin was using the current numbers(Result minus Predict); it also shows whether the Bison played above or below the prediction

so through 3 games, NDSU has beaten the predictor by an average of 7 points or so, while playing backups heavily.

Once things are well connected, NDSU should rise in the rankings.