Liberty might have gotten in, they were 8-3(all DI) with a win vs Ball St.
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Liberty might have gotten in, they were 8-3(all DI) with a win vs Ball St.
Yup, and they couldn't beat a 6-5 CAA team last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
There's a reason why it says "may" instead of "shall" when mentioning 7 DI wins for at-large selection. It should read "Not having 7 DI wins if you're not from one of the top 4 conferences shall remove you from the at-large selection process".
I always use the predictor column rather than the rating column. The predictor number is the core of Sagarin. The elo chess number is forced onto him by the BCS(it's pure wins/losses and doesn't take into account margin of victory). The rating column is a synthesis of the two.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
From the explanation on his webpage:
For the conference standings, I recalculate the central mean column using the predictor numbers. Also, the predicted margin of victory in my top charts already includes the home advantage(currently 3.08). Bisonaudit gives an extra 3.08 to teams coming off a bye week, but I'm too lazy to do that.Quote:
In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
Ill just let you post numbers, while I nod and smile.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
:eeek: Well then. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
11-0 31.6%
10-1 44.5%
9-2 20.1%
8-3 3.5%
7-4 0.3%
6-5 0.0%
NDSU 68.11; Wabbits 46.04 plus 3 SDSU so Bizon by 19.07
Go Bizon!
Sunday morning comes again and so do this week's Sagarin results. As always, I use the predictor column(furthest right) for everything and recalculate the conference standings using central mean.
In this episode, NDSU finally moves past UNI for top spot in the conference, but both teams get passed up by Wofford and Georgia Southern. Don't ask me how Wofford loses, yet takes the top spot; I don't have an answer. Illinois State gets a big boost from their win over Indiana State, but it doesn't change their standing within the conference. Missouri State moved up several spots due to the clustering in the bottom third of the MVFC. It also is clear that three of our four toughest games are yet to be played(according to the numbers).
In conference ratings, the SoCon solidifies its spot at the top of the AQ pack, but the Valley is making a charge and has taken second place over the CAA and Big Sky.
Week 8
Week 7Code:rate predict actual diff
61 Wofford 70.32
66 Georgia Southern 69.99
67 North Dakota State 69.90
75 Northern Iowa 68.45 + 4.59
106 Illinois State 60.90 +12.14 +10.00 -2.14
122 Indiana State 58.88 + 7.88
135 Youngstown State 57.24 +15.80
141 Minnesota 56.27 +10.49 +13.00 +2.51
157 Southern Illinois 52.31 +14.45 + 6.00 -8.45
174 Missouri State 49.02 +24.02 +30.00 +5.98
176 South Dakota State 48.76 +18.00 +24.00 +6.00
181 Lafayette 47.51 +25.53 +36.00 +10.47
193 Western Illinois 45.55 +21.21
237 Saint Francis-Pa 28.06 +44.98 +53.00 +8.02
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
70 Northern Iowa 68.22 + 2.97
71 North Dakota State 68.11
120 Illinois State 57.00 +14.19 +10.00 -4.19
131 Indiana State 55.29 + 9.74
142 Minnesota 53.13 +11.90 +13.00 +2.10
135 Youngstown State 54.91 +16.28
165 Southern Illinois 48.34 +16.69 + 6.00 -10.69
171 South Dakota State 46.04 +18.99
181 Lafayette 43.70 +27.49 +36.00 +8.51
182 Western Illinois 43.46 +21.57
184 Missouri State 43.13 +28.06 +30.00 +1.94
240 Saint Francis-Pa 20.58 +50.61 +53.00 +2.39
Code:Week 8
1. SoCn 59.94
2. GWC 59.25
3. MVFC 56.42
4. CAA 55.28
5. BSC 54.67
Week 7
1. GWC 55.49
2. SoCn 54.94
3. CAA 54.12
4. MVFC 53.31
5. BSC 53.24
11-0 34.1%
10-1 44.8%
9-2 18.5%
8-3 2.5%
7-4 0.1%
SoCon conference increased rating 5 full points and Clemson is still undefeated so I'm thinking that SOS is floating the Wofford boat this week.
A 7 win Pioneer will never make the playoffs. A 6 win SoCon, CAA, MVFC, Big Sky is better than a 10 or even 11 win Pioneer, and IMO the selection committee already knows that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonguy