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Imagine the buildup if it does end up being an NDSU/UNI Championship.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
The winner's bragging rights will be unprecedented!
The losing team's fans will be on 24 hour suicide watch not wanting to face the cyber-pummeling.
Interesting that 'on paper' the top 3 seeds correctly got the easiest, 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest schedules in the playoffs...impressive. Also funny #4 Montana has 6th easiest schedule but #8 Mont St is 5th easiest.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
Depth column (average expected rounds each team will survive) has us as a very clear #1 at 3.66. GSU (3.06) and SHSU (3.04) 2nd and 3rd respectively.
If you're a gambling fiend... put your bet to win championship on NDSU at 2.63-1? or Stony Brook at 1627.63-1??? :)
Anybody has that game simulator/predictor website handy? I can't seem to find it.
Thanks in advance.
This one?Quote:
Originally Posted by GradBison
http://nationalsportsrankings.com/in...n=com_oneonone
North Dakota St.(2011) wins 87 of 100 matchups against James Madison(2011)
Sagarin has the same predicted bracket as Massey, BTW.
Sagarin also says you should take Stony Brook @ 1628-1 but not NDSU at 2.63.
Sagarin says NDSU over JMU 92 out of 100.
Sagarin, by a small margin says, Ga. Southern, is the best team in the field so NDSU getting them at home in the semi's rather than on a neutral field in the championship is quite advantagous to NDSU in simulations built off of his assessments.
Thank you sir!Quote:
Originally Posted by TAILG8R
I'm starting to wonder if there was a mistake regarding GSU's ranking last week. At this time of year, the ratings are barely moving from week to week(tenths or even hundredths of a point). But GSU suddenly jumped ahead of us for one week, then dropped 2.5 points after a win(we dropped 0.04). Oh well, guess we'll never know.
Anyway, I've updated the list by dropping Towson and adding Maine. I'll continue to include our upcoming opponent and both possible opponents from the next round. Sagarin has us as 12.45 point favorites over Lehigh, 11.28 over Maine, and 5.51 over GSU.
If anyone doesn't understand what the numbers mean, I'll explain again(I should have done this a couple times during the season). First, all ratings come from the PREDICTOR column of Sagarin. The rate column from my chart is the raw predictor number. My predict column is what Sagarin predicts the outcome of the game will be, factoring in home field advantage. If the number is positive(all of them are), we are predicted to win by that amount. The next column(actual) is what the score actually was for that game(blank if we haven't played the game yet). The diff column is the difference between Sagarin's prediction and the actual result. You can use that column to see if the Bison under-performed, over-performed, or played at their typical level for any game. Mostly, it confirms what we already know: We sucked at YSU, SIU & WIU, while we played pretty good ball at Minnesota, SDSU & StFU. The rest of the games were within a TD of the prediction.
Week 14
Week 13Code:rate predict actual diff
66 North Dakota State 70.40
69 Northern Iowa 69.76 + 3.94 + 8.00 +4.06
76 Georgia Southern 68.19 + 5.51
89 Minnesota 64.09 + 3.01 +13.00 +9.99
102 Maine 62.42 +11.28
103 Illinois State 62.29 +11.41 +10.00 -1.41
109 Lehigh 61.25 +12.45
113 Youngstown State 60.69 +13.01 - 3.00 -16.01
125 Indiana State 57.68 + 9.42 + 9.00 -0.42
130 James Madison 56.52 +17.18 +12.00 -5.18
149 Southern Illinois 53.23 +13.87 + 6.00 -7.87
152 South Dakota State 52.13 +14.97 +24.00 +9.03
165 Missouri State 49.20 +24.50 +30.00 +5.50
188 Lafayette 43.81 +29.89 +36.00 +6.11
196 Western Illinois 42.29 +24.81 +16.00 -8.81
233 Saint Francis-Pa 30.16 +43.54 +53.00 +9.46
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
61 Georgia Southern 70.78 + 2.03
65 North Dakota State 70.44
68 Northern Iowa 70.14 + 2.67 + 8.00 +5.33
92 Minnesota 64.01 + 4.06 +13.00 +8.94
100 Illinois State 62.44 +10.37 +10.00 -0.37
112 Youngstown State 60.65 +12.16 - 3.00 -15.16
117 Lehigh 59.55 +13.26
121 Indiana State 57.78 +10.29 + 9.00 -1.29
124 Towson 57.51 +15.30
130 James Madison 56.52 +16.29
149 Southern Illinois 53.42 +14.65 + 6.00 -8.65
152 South Dakota State 52.30 +15.77 +24.00 +8.23
164 Missouri State 49.43 +23.38 +30.00 +6.72
192 Lafayette 42.75 +30.06 +36.00 +5.94
194 Western Illinois 42.44 +25.63 +16.00 -9.63
237 Saint Francis-Pa 29.31 +43.50 +53.00 +9.50
Code:Week 14
1. GWC 58.21
2. MVFC 57.52
3. SoCn 56.34
4. BSC 55.42
5. CAA 54.34
Week 13
1. GWC 58.51
2. SoCn 58.39
3. MVFC 57.66
4. BSC 55.54
5. CAA 52.37
Per sagarin App St should have won by 5 but they lost by 22. That's a 2 standard deviation type of outlier so I wouldn't be suprised to see that reverb through the model. Same conference so there may be some kind of SOS feedback loop happening too. Ga. Southern won but they underperformed sagarin expectation. I think that's why you're seeing such a large change.
NDSU 82.2% to advance.
56.9% to make the final.
33.3% to win it all.
Ga. Southern 16.3%
Sam Houston St. 15.7%
Montana 14.2%
Northern Iowa 14.1%
Montana State 2.5%
Maine 2.2%
Leigh 1.8%
Computer games are unreliable, but fun, nonetheless.
The unreliable bit isn't the computer. They're utterly predictable. The variance is in human performance. Either the human telling the computer what to do or the humans performing the actions the computer is attempting to simulate.
Thank you, Spock.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Funny sh*t right there!Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
Not half as funny as "Spock" clucking the chorus to "Forget You" after seeing "The Muppets" yesterday.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4mcrue
Sagarin's top 8 teams are still in the playoffs.
you guys to need to review your notes on bayesian statistics.
of course the top 8 teams are still playing.
NDSU 71.84 GSU 68.22 and 3 for Bison at home so Bison by 6.62
6.65, but that's just being picky(home advantage is 3.03 this week).
UNI took a nosedive after their embarrassing performance this weekend. Still, they stayed in the top-5 FCS teams. With a win over GSU, the Bison will have played four of the top-5 teams this season(the fifth will be the loser of SHSU/Mont). The Bison are still the top team in FCS and favored in all matchups, but the margin is razor thin if we have to play Montana for the title. Really, it would be a statistical tossup. The conferences remain unchanged, with the MVFC still leading the pack among the real conferences.
Week 15
Week 14Code:rate predict actual diff
57 North Dakota State 71.84
59 Montana 71.65 + 0.19
71 Sam Houston State 69.41 + 2.43
76 Georgia Southern 68.22 + 6.65
82 Northern Iowa 66.53 + 8.34 + 8.00 -0.34
89 Minnesota 64.16 + 4.65 +13.00 +8.35
100 Illinois State 61.93 +12.94 +10.00 -2.94
114 Youngstown State 60.28 +14.59 - 3.00 -17.59
119 Lehigh 58.50 +16.37 +24.00 +7.11
122 James Madison 57.98 +16.89 +12.00 -4.89
125 Indiana State 57.31 +11.50 + 9.00 -2.50
149 Southern Illinois 52.90 +15.91 + 6.00 -9.91
153 South Dakota State 51.82 +16.99 +24.00 +7.01
163 Missouri State 48.88 +25.99 +30.00 +4.01
190 Lafayette 42.96 +31.91 +36.00 +4.09
195 Western Illinois 42.20 +26.61 +16.00 -10.61
234 Saint Francis-Pa 29.79 +45.08 +53.00 +7.92
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
66 North Dakota State 70.40
69 Northern Iowa 69.76 + 3.94 + 8.00 +4.06
76 Georgia Southern 68.19 + 5.51
89 Minnesota 64.09 + 3.01 +13.00 +9.99
102 Maine 62.42 +11.28
103 Illinois State 62.29 +11.41 +10.00 -1.41
109 Lehigh 61.25 +12.45
113 Youngstown State 60.69 +13.01 - 3.00 -16.01
125 Indiana State 57.68 + 9.42 + 9.00 -0.42
130 James Madison 56.52 +17.18 +12.00 -5.18
149 Southern Illinois 53.23 +13.87 + 6.00 -7.87
152 South Dakota State 52.13 +14.97 +24.00 +9.03
165 Missouri State 49.20 +24.50 +30.00 +5.50
188 Lafayette 43.81 +29.89 +36.00 +6.11
196 Western Illinois 42.29 +24.81 +16.00 -8.81
233 Saint Francis-Pa 30.16 +43.54 +53.00 +9.46
Code:Week 15
1. GWC 58.32
2. MVFC 57.02
3. SoCn 56.14
4. BSC 55.69
5. CAA 53.77
Week 14
1. GWC 58.21
2. MVFC 57.52
3. SoCn 56.34
4. BSC 55.42
5. CAA 54.34
Hammersmith, no response to the +3 for being the home team in the post above yours? Did ya finally just give up? Lol
Does 5dimes or anywhere have a line on this weekend's games yet? The site won't let me log-in
I did include it in the first line of my post. :) It just wasn't a big deal this week because the home advantage is currently at 3.03. Not much of a difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by HandoEX
Massey's simulation deal has us winning 5 out of 7 games versus GSU.
Pretty neat site, if we run into LSU...it won't be pretty according to the site.
How about Bama?Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Yeah, I figured LSU would have big problems with the Herd.Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
:innocent:
Semi-Finals:
SHSU 52.3%
Mont. 47.7%
NDSU 68.9%
GSU 31.1%
Sagarin makes the lines:
SHSU -1
NDSU -6.5
Championship:
NDSU 37.2%
Mont. 25.1%
SHSU 24.2%
GSU 13.5%
Interesting that SHSU is more likely to win the semi game, but Montana is more likely to win the championship...Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
that can't be right, it must have left out the "Bama effect"Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Away vs neutral.Quote:
Originally Posted by fargocyclone
Montana is probably a 2 point favorite before home field.
No where did I see a mention about Alabama's chances or winning the FCS title.
You are correct, sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
Big jump for a big win. In fact, it makes the rest of the season look worse in comparison. Every one of our former opponents got a boost this week except GSU, which took a big hit. I'm going ahead and calling the NC game a neutral field despite the proximity to SHSU. Sagarin is predicting a 4.1pt NDSU advantage.
Week 16
Week 15Code:rate predict actual diff
46 North Dakota State 74.33
67 Sam Houston State 70.23 + 4.10
81 Northern Iowa 67.06 +10.25 + 8.00 -2.25
83 Georgia Southern 65.61 +11.70 +28.00 +16.30
88 Minnesota 64.41 + 6.94 +13.00 +6.06
97 Illinois State 62.66 +14.65 +10.00 -4.64
109 Youngstown State 61.05 +16.26 - 3.00 -19.26
118 Lehigh 59.04 +18.27 +24.00 +5.73
120 James Madison 58.33 +18.98 +12.00 -6.98
122 Indiana State 58.07 +13.28 + 9.00 -4.28
148 Southern Illinois 53.61 +17.74 + 6.00 -11.74
151 South Dakota State 52.52 +18.83 +24.00 +5.17
163 Missouri State 49.57 +27.74 +30.00 +2.26
190 Lafayette 43.51 +33.80 +36.00 +2.20
192 Western Illinois 42.98 +28.37 +16.00 -12.37
231 Saint Francis-Pa 30.36 +46.95 +53.00 +6.05
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
57 North Dakota State 71.84
59 Montana 71.65 + 0.19
71 Sam Houston State 69.41 + 2.43
76 Georgia Southern 68.22 + 6.65
82 Northern Iowa 66.53 + 8.34 + 8.00 -0.34
89 Minnesota 64.16 + 4.65 +13.00 +8.35
100 Illinois State 61.93 +12.94 +10.00 -2.94
114 Youngstown State 60.28 +14.59 - 3.00 -17.59
119 Lehigh 58.50 +16.37 +24.00 +7.11
122 James Madison 57.98 +16.89 +12.00 -4.89
125 Indiana State 57.31 +11.50 + 9.00 -2.50
149 Southern Illinois 52.90 +15.91 + 6.00 -9.91
153 South Dakota State 51.82 +16.99 +24.00 +7.01
163 Missouri State 48.88 +25.99 +30.00 +4.01
190 Lafayette 42.96 +31.91 +36.00 +4.09
195 Western Illinois 42.20 +26.61 +16.00 -10.61
234 Saint Francis-Pa 29.79 +45.08 +53.00 +7.92
Code:Week 16
1. GWC 58.34
2. MVFC 57.80
3. BSC 55.61
4. SoCn 55.34
5. CAA 53.86
6. SLC 47.30
Week 15
1. GWC 58.32
2. MVFC 57.02
3. SoCn 56.14
4. BSC 55.69
5. CAA 53.77
Sagarin predicts NDSU to win somewhere between 53% and 62% of the time v. SHSU depdending on how much home field advantage you award SHSU.
If you give SHSU the full 3.01 points the line would be NDSU -1, if you call it a neutral field it's NDSU -4.
Basically, Sagarin is saying think about this in the same way you were thinking about UNI leading up to that contest, not in terms of style of course (his model is totally ignorant of those sorts of considerations) just simply in terms of the relative quality of the opponent, and is predicting a very tough contest.
The Bison finished the season #37 in the Saragin rankings with a Predictor rating of 75.66.
Colorado State finished the season #142 with a Predictor rating of 55.32.
Give the Rams 3 points for the homefield and that would make the Bison 17 point favorites. That's an eye opening number for an FCS/FBS matchup.
You have to give the Rams the -10 points for a new coach making NDSU a 4 touchdown favorite ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
Sweet. Sagarin now includes separate home advantages for each set of ratings. Here are the final results of the season. In the conference race, the Valley ended with a pretty clear advantage over the other power conferences.
Final
Week 16Code:rate predict actual diff
44 North Dakota State 75.66
71 Sam Houston State 69.31 + 6.35 +11.00 +4.65
79 Northern Iowa 66.98 +11.47 + 8.00 -3.47
82 Georgia Southern 66.13 +12.32 +28.00 +15.68
91 Minnesota 63.92 + 8.95 +13.00 +4.05
99 Illinois State 62.83 +15.62 +10.00 -5.62
107 Youngstown State 61.19 +17.26 - 3.00 -20.26
118 Lehigh 59.03 +19.42 +24.00 +4.58
120 James Madison 58.24 +20.21 +12.00 -8.21
123 Indiana State 58.07 +14.80 + 9.00 -5.80
147 Southern Illinois 53.90 +18.97 + 6.00 -12.97
150 South Dakota State 52.68 +20.19 +24.00 +3.81
161 Missouri State 49.95 +28.50 +30.00 +1.50
191 Lafayette 43.49 +34.96 +36.00 +1.04
192 Western Illinois 43.12 +29.75 +16.00 -13.75
230 Saint Francis-Pa 30.37 +48.08 +53.00 +4.92
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
46 North Dakota State 74.33
67 Sam Houston State 70.23 + 4.10
81 Northern Iowa 67.06 +10.25 + 8.00 -2.25
83 Georgia Southern 65.61 +11.70 +28.00 +16.30
88 Minnesota 64.41 + 6.94 +13.00 +6.06
97 Illinois State 62.66 +14.65 +10.00 -4.64
109 Youngstown State 61.05 +16.26 - 3.00 -19.26
118 Lehigh 59.04 +18.27 +24.00 +5.73
120 James Madison 58.33 +18.98 +12.00 -6.98
122 Indiana State 58.07 +13.28 + 9.00 -4.28
148 Southern Illinois 53.61 +17.74 + 6.00 -11.74
151 South Dakota State 52.52 +18.83 +24.00 +5.17
163 Missouri State 49.57 +27.74 +30.00 +2.26
190 Lafayette 43.51 +33.80 +36.00 +2.20
192 Western Illinois 42.98 +28.37 +16.00 -12.37
231 Saint Francis-Pa 30.36 +46.95 +53.00 +6.05
Code:Final
1. GWC 58.24
2. MVFC 58.00
3. SoCn 55.58
4. BSC 55.39
5. CAA 53.68
6. SLC 47.04
Week 16
1. GWC 58.34
2. MVFC 57.80
3. BSC 55.61
4. SoCn 55.34
5. CAA 53.86
6. SLC 47.30
The following means absolutely nothing, but I figured why not. This is a preview of next year's schedule using the final numbers from this year. Again, it means nothing.
Code:rate predict
44 North Dakota State 75.66
79 Northern Iowa 66.98 + 5.89
99 Illinois State 62.83 +10.04
107 Youngstown State 61.19 +17.26
123 Indiana State 58.07 +20.38
129 South Dakota 57.01 +15.86
140 Colorado State 55.44 +17.43
147 Southern Illinois 53.90 +24.55
150 South Dakota State 52.68 +25.77
161 Missouri State 49.95 +22.92
227 Robert Morris 31.20 +47.25
sooo 11-0?
Fixed it for you...Quote:
Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10
So where are your hypothetical playoff matchups?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Do we have any idea of who the 11th game may be against?
Thank you Hammer and Audit for the number crunching...one of my fav threads this season