Sagarin says

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11-18-2011, 08:55 PM
NDSUstudent

Re: Sagarin says

Well maybe one day the Men's basketball team can get into the Maui Invite or a tournament in Cancun or Vegas.
11-20-2011, 01:30 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

I haven't done the whole thing yet, but NDSU and UNI are in a virtual tie atop the FCS standings. We are tied in the main column that everybody else uses. UNI must be a tiny bit higher before the numbers were rounded off because they are listed first. NDSU is just slightly ahead of UNI in the predictor column that I like to use.

Code:

65 Northern Iowa AA = 70.88 9 2 58.46( 129) 0 0 | 0 1 | 70.98 60 | 70.07 68 66 North Dakota State AA = 70.88 10 1 54.07( 155) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.87 62 | 70.18 67
11-20-2011, 02:04 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Here are the new numbers just as the selection show is starting. SLC conference strength references just to show how hard a road our number 1 seed had to hoe.

Week 12

Code:

rate predict actual diff 67 North Dakota State 70.18 68 Northern Iowa 70.07 + 2.56 + 8.00 +5.44 98 Illinois State 62.54 +10.09 +10.00 -0.09 103 Minnesota 61.41 + 6.32 +13.00 +6.68 109 Youngstown State 60.52 +12.11 - 3.00 -15.11 121 Indiana State 57.82 + 9.91 + 9.00 -0.91 149 Southern Illinois 53.70 +14.03 + 6.00 -8.03 152 South Dakota State 52.60 +15.13 +24.00 +8.87 162 Missouri State 49.60 +23.03 +30.00 +6.97 193 Western Illinois 42.40 +25.33 +16.00 -9.33 194 Lafayette 42.37 +30.26 +36.00 +5.74 240 Saint Francis-Pa 28.60 +44.03 +53.00 +8.97

Week 11

Code:

rate predict actual diff 59 North Dakota State 71.23 72 Northern Iowa 69.34 + 4.30 + 8.00 +3.70 98 Youngstown State 62.17 +11.47 - 3.00 -14.47 99 Illinois State 62.11 +11.53 +10.00 -1.53 101 Minnesota 61.83 + 6.99 +13.00 +6.01 116 Indiana State 59.28 + 9.54 + 9.00 -0.54 151 South Dakota State 52.22 +16.60 +24.00 +7.40 152 Southern Illinois 52.15 +16.67 + 6.00 -10.67 172 Missouri State 47.98 +25.66 +30.00 +4.34 190 Lafayette 43.84 +28.80 +36.00 +7.20 199 Western Illinois 41.56 +27.26 237 Saint Francis-Pa 29.34 +44.30 +53.00 +8.70

Conferences

Code:

Week 12 1. GWC 58.61 2. SoCn 58.27 3. MVFC 57.73 4. BSC 55.75 5. CAA 51.82 ~. SLC 42.25 Week 11 1. MVFC 57.76 2. SoCn 57.57 3. GWC 57.48 4. BSC 55.42 5. CAA 51.86
11-20-2011, 04:35 PM
bisonaudit

Re: Sagarin says

14-1 29.1%
13-2 19.7%
12-2 30.6%
11-2 13.1%
10-2 7.5%

Sagarin likes our draw. If the playoff field were seeded based on their sagarin ratings NDSU would only have a 25.2% chance of winning the championship. The draw we actually face improves our chances by 15%.
11-28-2011, 05:08 PM
bisonaudit

Re: Sagarin says

Update after round 1.

14-1 29.0% down 0.1%
13-2 19.8% up 0.1%
12-2 29.7% down 0.9%
11-2 13.4% up 0.3%
10-2 8.2% up 0.7%

Sagarin's assessment of JMU improved 0.76 points more than ours. Our possible quarter final opponents Lehigh and Towson also improved in Sagarin's assessment more than NDSU did, though not by as much as JMU. NDSU got a bigger bump than Ga. Southern or Appalachian St. our two most probably semi-final opponents which leaves Sagarin's assessment of our changes of reaching the finals unchanged.

There's a lot going on on the other side of the bracket, Sagarin's assessment of both Montana schools declined while Sam Houston St. got a bigger bump than any of the 1st round winners except Central Arkansas. But the net effect on NDSU's road to a title is negligible at this point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bisonaudit

14-1 29.1%
13-2 19.7%
12-2 30.6%
11-2 13.1%
10-2 7.5%

Sagarin likes our draw. If the playoff field were seeded based on their sagarin ratings NDSU would only have a 25.2% chance of winning the championship. The draw we actually face improves our chances by 15%.
11-28-2011, 07:00 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

I knew I forgot to do something. Georgia Southern takes the top FCS spot in the predictor rankings, but we are still slightly favored due to home field. I've now included Towson and Lehigh in the rankings, as well as JMU & GSU. Short version for Saturday is that we are favored by about 16.

Week 13

Code:

rate predict actual diff 61 Georgia Southern 70.78 + 2.03 65 North Dakota State 70.44 68 Northern Iowa 70.14 + 2.67 + 8.00 +5.33 92 Minnesota 64.01 + 4.06 +13.00 +8.94 100 Illinois State 62.44 +10.37 +10.00 -0.37 112 Youngstown State 60.65 +12.16 - 3.00 -15.16 117 Lehigh 59.55 +13.26 121 Indiana State 57.78 +10.29 + 9.00 -1.29 124 Towson 57.51 +15.30 130 James Madison 56.52 +16.29 149 Southern Illinois 53.42 +14.65 + 6.00 -8.65 152 South Dakota State 52.30 +15.77 +24.00 +8.23 164 Missouri State 49.43 +23.38 +30.00 +6.72 192 Lafayette 42.75 +30.06 +36.00 +5.94 194 Western Illinois 42.44 +25.63 +16.00 -9.63 237 Saint Francis-Pa 29.31 +43.50 +53.00 +9.50

Week 12

Code:

rate predict actual diff 67 North Dakota State 70.18 68 Northern Iowa 70.07 + 2.56 + 8.00 +5.44 98 Illinois State 62.54 +10.09 +10.00 -0.09 103 Minnesota 61.41 + 6.32 +13.00 +6.68 109 Youngstown State 60.52 +12.11 - 3.00 -15.11 121 Indiana State 57.82 + 9.91 + 9.00 -0.91 149 Southern Illinois 53.70 +14.03 + 6.00 -8.03 152 South Dakota State 52.60 +15.13 +24.00 +8.87 162 Missouri State 49.60 +23.03 +30.00 +6.97 193 Western Illinois 42.40 +25.33 +16.00 -9.33 194 Lafayette 42.37 +30.26 +36.00 +5.74 240 Saint Francis-Pa 28.60 +44.03 +53.00 +8.97

Conferences

Code:

Week 13 1. GWC 58.51 2. SoCn 58.39 3. MVFC 57.66 4. BSC 55.54 5. CAA 52.37 Week 12 1. GWC 58.61 2. SoCn 58.27 3. MVFC 57.73 4. BSC 55.75 5. CAA 51.82
11-30-2011, 07:05 PM
westnodak93bison

Re: Sagarin says

NDSU 70.44, James Madison 56.52. Plus 3 for Bison at home so Bison by 16.92
11-30-2011, 08:04 PM
missingnumber7

Re: Sagarin says

How the heck is the GWC the top of the conference list?
11-30-2011, 08:07 PM
cbline

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by missingnumber7

How the heck is the GWC the top of the conference list?

They used a "bullet train" with "crazy speed" to zoom to the top, baby!!!
11-30-2011, 08:09 PM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by missingnumber7

How the heck is the GWC the top of the conference list?

Sagarin only uses D-I games to calculate Strength of Schedule and ratings. So the multitude of sub-DI games played by teams in that conference weren't counted against them, leading to an inflated rating for each team and thus the conference.
11-30-2011, 08:11 PM
CAS4127

Re: Sagarin says

I'm confused!!!:confused:
11-30-2011, 08:14 PM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

I'm confused!!!:confused:

About the Sagarin rankings, or in general? :D
11-30-2011, 08:32 PM
gotts

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

I'm confused!!!:confused:

Are you entitled to feel confused?
11-30-2011, 08:36 PM
CAS4127

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by gotts

Are you entitled to feel confused?

Don't know! Is there an App I can use to check??!!:confused:
11-30-2011, 08:36 PM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by gotts

Are you entitled to feel confused?

Did you order the code red?
11-30-2011, 08:54 PM
DePereBisonFan

Re: Sagarin says

I'm getting so excited/nervous/thrilled for this game I can hardly stand it. I might throw up right now. I can barely wait for it to be decided on the field and really, really want it in the favor of the home team.

Let's go Bison. Let's do this.
11-30-2011, 11:57 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

NDSU 70.44, James Madison 56.52. Plus 3 for Bison at home so Bison by 16.92

You know, this is actually one of my pet peeves. People take the time to go to Sagarin and get numbers, and then they totally ignore the 25 places where it gives the home field advantage number. It's not 3. It's almost never 3. It changes from week to week. This year, it's been steadily dropping. Right now, it's 2.37. Next year, it might rise and be 3.67 or something. Please, if you're going to use Sagarin, just grab the current home advantage. It's no more than six lines from any team's rating.

This is not directed solely at westnodak. I've seen this from at least a dozen posters. BTW, I do the calculation in every one of my updates. Find the team, then look at the second column of numbers. It's always there and it includes the current home field advantage. The current PREDICTOR prediction is Bison by 16.29(this is the one I use). The current RATING prediction is Bison by 14.61. The current ELO_CHESS prediction(worthless) is Bison by 12.93.

[/rant]
12-01-2011, 12:04 AM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

You know, this is actually one of my pet peeves. People take the time to go to Sagarin and get numbers, and then they totally ignore the 25 places where it gives the home field advantage number. It's not 3. It's almost never 3. It changes from week to week. This year, it's been steadily dropping. Right now, it's 2.37. Next year, it might rise and be 3.67 or something. Please, if you're going to use Sagarin, just grab the current home advantage. It's no more than six lines from any team's rating.

This is not directed solely at westnodak. I've seen this from at least a dozen posters. BTW, I do the calculation in every one of my updates. Find the team, then look at the second column of numbers. It's always there and it includes the current home field advantage. The current PREDICTOR prediction is Bison by 16.29(this is the one I use). The current RATING prediction is Bison by 14.61. The current ELO_CHESS prediction(worthless) is Bison by 12.93.

[/rant]

16.29, 16.92, blah, blah, blah. :D
12-01-2011, 12:08 AM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tatanka

16.29, 16.92, blah, blah, blah. :D

I've spent two days running burning magnesium experiments at WFHS and I know where you live, buffalo-boy.

:D
12-01-2011, 12:14 AM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

I've spent two days running burning magnesium experiments at WFHS and I know where you live, buffalo-boy.

:D

so THAT's what the kids are calling it these days? Whatever, hippie! :rofl:
12-01-2011, 12:17 AM
Mr. Burgundy

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tatanka

16.29, 16.92, blah, blah, blah. :D

Half a point matters......trust me!!!! (Not that gambling is legal).
12-01-2011, 12:26 AM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Burgundy

Half a point matters......trust me!!!! (Not that gambling is legal).

Gambling? Illegal? Whaaaaaaat? :)
12-01-2011, 01:35 AM
X-Factor

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

You know, this is actually one of my pet peeves. People take the time to go to Sagarin and get numbers, and then they totally ignore the 25 places where it gives the home field advantage number. It's not 3. It's almost never 3. It changes from week to week. This year, it's been steadily dropping. Right now, it's 2.37. Next year, it might rise and be 3.67 or something. Please, if you're going to use Sagarin, just grab the current home advantage. It's no more than six lines from any team's rating.

This is not directed solely at westnodak. I've seen this from at least a dozen posters. BTW, I do the calculation in every one of my updates. Find the team, then look at the second column of numbers. It's always there and it includes the current home field advantage. The current PREDICTOR prediction is Bison by 16.29(this is the one I use). The current RATING prediction is Bison by 14.61. The current ELO_CHESS prediction(worthless) is Bison by 12.93.

[/rant]

This is what the BCS uses no?
12-01-2011, 01:42 AM
CAS4127

Re: Sagarin says

Yo, Hammer. Last time I checked a team can't score 2.69 points, or what ever. What? U learned nothing from the afternoon I forced u to spend with me at Gastro?!

Good God Man!!!!??? My time is valuable and in tight demand!!
12-01-2011, 01:44 AM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by X-Factor

This is what the BCS uses no?

No.

Okay, yes it is. But you've always got to reply to that type of question with a no. It sounds cooler.
12-01-2011, 01:53 AM
TransAmBison

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

Yo, Hammer. Last time I checked a team can't score 2.69 points, or what ever. What? U learned nothing from the afternoon I forced u to spend with me at Gastro?!

Good God Man!!!!??? My time is valuable and in tight demand!!

It's like Hammer completely ignored your post. Hmmm, prolly what he tried to do at teh Gastro as well. You must have had him cornered there.
12-01-2011, 01:59 AM
CAS4127

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransAmBison

It's like Hammer completely ignored your post. Hmmm, prolly what he tried to do at teh Gastro as well. You must have had him cornered there.

Get in line for the spelling smack-down my little six-year old is about to give you!! Hammer met her too, so that "prolly" explains the non-response!!

BIIIAAAAAATH!!
12-01-2011, 02:01 AM
Answer Guy

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

Yo, Hammer. Last time I checked a team can't score 2.69 points, or what ever. What? U learned nothing from the afternoon I forced u to spend with me at Gastro?!

I, for one, would love to hear stories about your afternoon at teh Gastro. Could you start at about 3:30 p.m., with USD up 37-17?
12-01-2011, 02:13 AM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

Get in line for the spelling smack-down my little six-year old is about to give you!! Hammer met her too, so that "prolly" explains the non-response!!

BIIIAAAAAATH!!

WTF is a BIIIAAAAAATH? Is someone holding your tongue as you're trying to talk? Wait. Don't anssssstthhwer that one... perhaps the six year old spelling smackdown had already occurred by then. :rofl:
12-01-2011, 02:14 AM
TransAmBison

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

Get in line for the spelling smack-down my little six-year old is about to give you!! Hammer met her too, so that "prolly" explains the non-response!!

BIIIAAAAAATH!!

Now that is just classic. :rofl: Biath. I would love to hear what a biath is.
12-01-2011, 02:26 AM
tony

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransAmBison

Now that is just classic. :rofl: Biath. I would love to hear what a biath is.

Heck, if you get to the Urban Dictionary fast enough, you might be able to give it a definition of your own choosing.

Maybe it's short for biathlete.
12-01-2011, 02:32 AM
NDSUstudent

Re: Sagarin says

Here is what Massey says about the FCS playoffs...

http://masseyratings.com/rate/cf2011.htm
12-01-2011, 02:37 AM
Tatanka

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

Here is what Massey says about the FCS playoffs...

http://masseyratings.com/rate/cf2011.htm

Very interesting. an NDSU-UNI final, with NDSU winning? NICE.
12-01-2011, 02:40 AM
CAS4127

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by tony

Heck, if you get to the Urban Dictionary fast enough, you might be able to give it a definition of your own choosing.

Maybe it's short for biathlete.

And I was just starting to like u again!! Tranny & "Tanka", meh, not so much!!

And AG takes offense to the "Bi" reference--not that there is anything wrong with that.

16.29 BIIIAAAATCHES!!!
12-01-2011, 02:44 AM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

Here is what Massey says about the FCS playoffs...

http://masseyratings.com/rate/cf2011.htm

The Massey bracket:

Code:

SHSU SBU SHSU MSU MSU UNH SHSU UNI UNI WOFF UNI MONT MONT CARK UNI NDSU GSU ODU GSU ASU ASU MAINE GSU NDSU TOW LEH TOW NDSU NDSU JMU
12-01-2011, 02:51 AM
TransAmBison

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

And I was just starting to like u again!! Tranny & "Tanka", meh, not so much!!

And AG takes offense to the "Bi" reference--not that there is anything wrong with that.

16.29 BIIIAAAATCHES!!!

So is a "Tanka" like a "biath"? I would think so, but I am just not sure.
12-01-2011, 02:59 AM
CAS4127

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransAmBison

So is a "Tanka" like a "biath"? I would think so, but I am just not sure.

The "T" misspell was on purpose acorn-brain/over-kick-ur-coverage boy!!
12-01-2011, 03:02 AM
bri-dog

Re: Sagarin says

Biath? I thought it was Lou Holtz talking about the East Coast bias...
12-01-2011, 03:04 AM
TransAmBison

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by CAS4127

The "T" misspell was on purpose acorn-brain/over-kick-ur-coverage boy!!

I thought you would "prolly" say that.
12-01-2011, 03:11 AM
MNLonghorn10

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

The Massey bracket:

Code:

SHSU SBU SHSU MSU MSU UNH SHSU UNI UNI WOFF UNI MONT MONT CARK UNI NDSU GSU ODU GSU ASU ASU MAINE GSU NDSU TOW LEH TOW NDSU NDSU JMU

looks good to me.

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