Sagarin says

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Based on Sagarin's numbers (look no further than the 5.29 home field number for evidence its early) w/ 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Del St 99.9%
SDSU 58.7%
UNI 84.3%
Mo St 98.0%
S Ill 68.9%
Ind St 78.4%
Ill St 95.6%
YSU 77.9%
USD 98.9%

11-0 19.2%
10-1 38.1%
9-2 29.2%
8-3 11.1%
7-4 2.2%
6-5 0.2%
5-6 0.01%
4-7 0.0002%
3-8 0.000001%
2-9 0.000000001%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86.

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So you're saying there's a chance???

Quote:

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Originally Posted by missingnumber7

How does the valley as a whole compare with the sun belt

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CUSA 61.57
MAC 60.95
Sn Blt 60.65
MVFC 60.02

Hammer and Audit,

After SDSU takes out Nebraska on Saturday, will NDSU move up to where they belong (higher than Nebraska and K St.), finally? (Can't figure out how nebraska is higher at this point....)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Hammer and Audit,

After SDSU takes out Nebraska on Saturday, will NDSU move up to where they belong (higher than Nebraska and K St.), finally? (Can't figure out how nebraska is higher at this point....)

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It's still pulling statistics from last year

Basically, we need K State to keep winning to keep the ranking sky high.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Hammer and Audit,

After SDSU takes out Nebraska on Saturday, will NDSU move up to where they belong (higher than Nebraska and K St.), finally? (Can't figure out how nebraska is higher at this point....)

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SDSU will choke. No matter how much Nebraska will try to give it* to them, SDSU will just choke.**




*A victory

**on it*

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

CUSA 61.57
MAC 60.95
Sn Blt 60.65
MVFC 60.02

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Thats actually closer than I thought it would be. The MAC and CUSA are lower then they have been in years past.

This isn't an official release, but here is where my system is aiming. Data from last year is still being used.

Bison at #27 overall.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1E&usp=sharing

Damn you, Kansas State. NDSU slips 8 spots because of you. I was going to add a "not really" to that, but it is actually their fault. Last week they were in the top-30, which gave us an SOS boost for the win. With them falling out of the top-30, we lost the boost.

Northern Iowa makes an unlikely appearance in the #2 spot. Not sure how much of that is this year and how much is last year's SOS.

Also, the Southland Conference continues its rise by displacing the Big Sky for 3rd place after the MVFC and CAA.


Sagarin's Week 5 Predictions:

Code:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 58        North Dakota State        72.97                                       
 42        Kansas State                77.06          -9.32      3.00        12.32               
 NA        Ferris State                  NA              NA      46.00            NA               
222        Delaware State                38.05          40.15      51.00        10.85               
 98        South Dakota State        63.86            3.88                               
 72        Northern Iowa                69.36            8.84                               
165        Missouri State                52.55          25.65                               
102        Southern Illinois        62.45            5.29                               
126        Indiana State                58.00            9.74                               
149        Illinois State                54.89          23.31                               
114        Youngstown State        59.87            7.87                               
181        South Dakota                47.49          30.71                               
                                                       
177        Western Illinois        49.14                                       
                                                Total Diff:        23.17
        Home                        5.23

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

Code:

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1  58  North Dakota State
 2  72  Northern Iowa
 3  82  Towson
 4  86  Eastern Washington
 5  88  Eastern Illinois
 6  91  Montana
 7  92  Villanova
 8  93  Georgia Southern
 9  98  South Dakota State
10  102  Southern Illinois
11  103  Richmond
12  105  McNeese State
13  106  Sam Houston State
14  107  Central Arkansas
15  113  Montana State
16  114  Youngstown State
17  117  Illinois State
18  118  Cal Poly
19  120  Chattanooga
20  122  Maine
21  124  William & Mary
22  125  SE Louisiana
23  126  Indiana State
24  133  Old Dominion
25  136  New Hampshire

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Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS Conferences

Code:

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1.  MVFC        58.85
2.  Colonial        56.45
3.  Southland        54.48
4.  Big Sky        54.36
5.  Southern        53.22

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Something looks wrong about the rating and results so far. If NDSU is +12.32 and +10.85, shouldn't they just have a higher rating?