I thought they went with sundogs?Quote:
Originally Posted by IzzyFlexion
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I thought they went with sundogs?Quote:
Originally Posted by IzzyFlexion
Hahahaha! I usually don't laugh that hard BEFORE coffee!Quote:
Originally Posted by scottietohottie
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
I find it hilarious that there are TWO Ivy League schools and SIU ranked ahead of Coastal Carolina and FOUR MVFC teams ahead of Jaksonville state.
And Oregon would only be favored by about a touchdown if we played in Eugene next week. I wonder if Vernon Adams wishes he was still at EWU? :)
Ndsu 62 > James Madison 97
I know being number 1in the polls isn't that important but c'mon.
I don't mind that one as I believe they normally play a decent schedule, but being one spot behind Minnesota?? We've got work to do ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonHorns
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1 30.7% +3.9% from last week
9-2.. 44.9% +1.8%
8-3.. 20.6%. -2.9%
7-4... 3.6%.. -2.2%
6-5... 0.3%... -0.4%
5-6... 0.01%
4-7... 0.00001%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.USD.. 96.3% 24.5 +0.4%. +1.0 change from last week
@Ind St 89.1% 16.5 +1.0%. +0.5
@S Ill... 70.9%. 7.5. -4.2%.. -1.5
v.W Ill.. 89.6% 17.0. -2.7%. -2.5
@YSU... 56.3%. 2.0. +1.0%.. 0.0
v.Mo St 99.8% 40.0... 0.0% +1.0
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
-- @YSU.. 56.3%.. 2.0
-- @S Ill.. 70.9%.. 7.5
-- @Ind St 89.1% 16.5
-- v.W Ill. 89.6% 17.0
-- v.USD.. 96.3% 24.5
-- v.Mo St 99.8% 40.0
Attachment 6305Attachment 6306
Rabbits and Guins this week.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 7 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
62 North Dakota State 70.48
140 Montana 52.66 +15.06 -3.00 -18.06
167 Weber State 45.56 +27.68 +27.00 -0.68
168 North Dakota 45.46 +27.78 +25.00 -2.78
92 South Dakota State 63.47 +4.25 +21.00 +16.75
98 Northern Iowa 62.40 +10.84 +3.00 -7.84
156 South Dakota 48.95 +24.29
148 Indiana State 51.01 +16.71
107 Southern Illinois 60.29 +7.43
124 Western Illinois 56.19 +17.05
81 Youngstown State 65.58 +2.14
218 Missouri State 33.04 +40.20
74 Illinois State 67.71
Total Diff: -12.61
Home Field 2.76
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 62 70.48 North Dakota State
2 74 67.71 Illinois State
3 81 65.58 Youngstown State
4 84 65.04 Chattanooga
5 88 63.80 Harvard
6 92 63.47 South Dakota State
7 93 63.04 Jacksonville State
8 97 62.46 James Madison
9 98 62.40 Northern Iowa
10 105 60.68 Dartmouth
11 106 60.55 Portland State
12 107 60.29 Southern Illinois
13 110 59.82 Sam Houston State
14 111 59.81 William & Mary
15 112 59.59 Coastal Carolina
16 115 58.19 McNeese State
17 117 57.89 Eastern Washington
18 118 57.87 Southern Utah
19 119 57.47 Samford
20 124 56.19 Western Illinois
21 128 55.09 Montana State
22 130 54.28 Eastern Kentucky
23 131 54.19 Cal Poly-SLO
24 135 53.39 Central Arkansas
25 137 53.12 Richmond
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.43 9
2 SEC 78.36 13
3 ACC 76.57 11
4 PAC-12 76.11 10
5 BIG TEN 75.21 11
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.94 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.07 6
8 MWC 61.66 3
9 MAC 60.41 2
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 59.29 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 56.45 3
12 SUN BELT 54.48 1
13 BIG SKY 48.24 1
14 COLONIAL 47.03 1
15 SOUTHERN 45.63 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.70 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 43.72 1
18 SOUTHLAND 42.38 1
19 BIG SOUTH 42.06 1
20 NORTHEAST 35.18 1
21 PATRIOT 35.05 1
22 MID-EASTERN 31.86 1
23 SWAC 26.95 1
24 PIONEER 23.89 1
If Sagarin were the selection committee half the playoff field would be from the MVFC and the Big Sky right now.
5 of the 8 seeds MVFC. Big Sky 5 teams playing the first weekend.
That sounds right for MVFC, seems high for BS but they do have some surprise teams this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Way too high for the Big Sky, surprise teams or not. Look at the conference performance record the last two years for the playoffs and occ games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Meaty
Do remember one of their teams beat the #1 team in the nation.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedRiver
And has since tanked....Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
Last and 3rd to last at-large teams are Big Sky. Bubblelicious. Give it a week or two, could be a completely different story.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedRiver
They still got a chance. If they go into that selection Sunday with a 7-4 record, the committee will recognize that win against us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Pep Band
They wouldn't be one of the 5 today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Pep Band
Gains from the SDSU game now erased. Back to 70. ISUr at 72, SDSU at 73. UNI hanging onto the top ten by a whisker.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 9 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
70 North Dakota State 68.39
144 Montana 51.45 +14.28 -3.00 -17.28
164 Weber State 46.20 +24.85 +27.00 +2.15
172 North Dakota 44.78 +26.27 +25.00 -1.27
73 South Dakota State 67.59 -1.86 +21.00 +22.86
102 Northern Iowa 59.97 +11.08 +3.00 -8.08
150 South Dakota 50.06 +20.99 -3.00 -23.99
129 Indiana State 53.64 +12.09
117 Southern Illinois 56.88 +8.85
111 Western Illinois 58.23 +12.82
101 Youngstown State 60.72 +5.01
206 Missouri State 36.53 +34.52
72 Illinois State 67.87
Total Diff: -25.61
Home Field 2.66
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 70 68.39 North Dakota State
2 72 67.87 Illinois State
3 73 67.59 South Dakota State
4 85 64.72 James Madison
5 88 63.80 Jacksonville State
6 94 62.65 Harvard
7 95 62.37 Chattanooga
8 97 61.56 Coastal Carolina
9 101 60.72 Youngstown State
10 102 59.97 Northern Iowa
11 103 59.83 Sam Houston State
12 106 59.27 William & Mary
13 107 58.99 McNeese State
14 108 58.95 Dartmouth
15 109 58.77 Southern Utah
16 110 58.70 Portland State
17 111 58.23 Western Illinois
18 115 57.92 Eastern Washington
19 117 56.88 Southern Illinois
20 120 56.17 Eastern Kentucky
21 127 53.90 Richmond
22 128 53.77 The Citadel
23 129 53.64 Indiana State
24 135 52.92 Samford
25 137 52.69 Villanova
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.00 9
2 SEC 78.93 14
3 PAC-12 76.26 11
4 ACC 75.81 12
5 BIG TEN 75.75 11
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.69 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.07 7
8 MWC 60.54 3
9 MAC 59.25 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.86 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.94 4
12 SUN BELT 54.17 3
13 BIG SKY 47.59 1
14 COLONIAL 46.59 1
15 SOUTHERN 46.20 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.86 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 43.84 1
18 SOUTHLAND 41.67 1
19 BIG SOUTH 40.88 1
20 PATRIOT 35.36 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.62 1
22 MID-EASTERN 31.88 1
23 SWAC 27.20 1
24 PIONEER 23.85 1
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
9-2 32.2%. -12.7% from last week
8-3 43.0% +22.4%
7-4 20.4% +16.8%
6-5.. 4.1%. +3.9%
5-6.. 0.3%. +0.3%
4-7.. 0.002%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@Ind St 81.5% 12.0. -7.6%. -4.5 change from last week
@S Ill.. 74.4%.. 9.0 +3.5% +1.5
v.W Ill. 82.9% 13.0. -6.7%. -4.0
@YSU.. 64.5%.. 5.0 +8.2% +3.0
v.Mo St 99.4% 34.5. -0.4%. -5.5
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
-- @YSU... 64.5%. 5.0
-- @S Ill... 74.4%. 9.0
-- @Ind St 81.5% 12.0
-- v.W Ill.. 82.9% 13.0
-- v.Mo St 99.4% 34.5
Attachment 6333Attachment 6334
A bunch of 2 score games coming up this week for the top teams.
So was ours last week!!!!!!!!!!! Just Saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
No, it was 4 scores.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Meaty
Audit, can you develop some probability cones for different scenarios including Carson having a broken wrist and Duane's House of Pizza running out of tomato sauce?
http://www.sportinglifearkansas.com/...gic-8-ball.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by Gully
Noticed Illinois St. officially leapfrogged us to 1st place in Sagarin. SDSU is #3.
That USD loss really kicked us in the nuts.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
I believe Illinois St schedule strength is higher along with several other top FCS schools since they played a FBS game. Illinois St played what is turning out to be a very good Iowa team even though they lost by a few scores. Not sure Kansas helped SDSU all that much since it was a close game and Kansas has played like Kansas since.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
9-2 42.4% +10.2% from last week
8-3 42.7%.. -0.3%
7-4 13.6%.. -6.8%
6-5. 1.4%... -2.8%
5-6. 0.01%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@S Ill.. 72.4%.. 8.0. -2.0%. -1.0 change from last week
v.W Ill. 84.5%. 13.5 +1.6% +0.5
@YSU.. 69.5%.. 7.0 +5.0% +2.0
v.Mo St 99.6% 36.0 +0.2% +1.5
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
-- @YSU.. 69.5%.. 7.0
-- @S Ill.. 72.4%.. 8.0
-- v.W Ill. 84.5%. 13.5
-- v.Mo St 99.6% 36.0
Do the numbers take into account Wentz being out?
Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
I'll try to update before the weekend. Just moved and have very limited internet access until tomorrow.
No. All they consider are opponent, location, score and how recent the result is.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
How many points is Carson worth?
Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
More than anyone else on the roster but probably less than is commonly believed.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Attachment 6379Attachment 6380
Next two weeks are going to tell the tale for Jax St.
If JSU drops one and assuming UTC loses to Florida State, how does that affect each of them? Both drop considerably? Probably a better question to ask in a non-sagarin threadQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
UTC v. FSU I think is going to be all about how close they can keep it whether you're talking about their Sagarin rating or their position in the polls. Sagarin has that at 26 points at the moment. If they keep it closer than that, all else equal, their rating would tend to improve. If they get thumped it would tend to go down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Similarly Jacksonville State is favored by 9 and 8.5 the next two weeks. If they win by less than that it'll put downward pressure on their rating. More impressive showings would tend to push their rating up. People tend to do the same sort of thing with the eye test, but are prone to overreact to recent events. Of course people also know when a team's star quarterback is out for the year with an ankle injury while, at least this computer model is completely ignorant of those sorts of facts.
Better late than never?
Sagarin's 2015 Week 10 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
70 North Dakota State 68.76
133 Montana 53.15 +12.90 -3.00 -15.90
170 Weber State 44.99 +26.48 +27.00 +0.52
176 North Dakota 43.16 +28.31 +25.00 -3.31
83 South Dakota State 65.38 +0.67 +21.00 +20.33
94 Northern Iowa 62.03 +9.44 +3.00 -6.44
150 South Dakota 50.78 +20.69 -3.00 -23.69
136 Indiana State 52.81 +13.24 +14.00 +0.76
114 Southern Illinois 58.03 +8.02
117 Western Illinois 57.74 +13.73
108 Youngstown State 59.16 +6.89
213 Missouri State 35.26 +36.21
67 Illinois State 69.09
Total Diff: -27.73
Home Field 2.71
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 67 69.09 Illinois State
2 70 68.76 North Dakota State
3 83 65.38 South Dakota State
4 85 64.53 Harvard
5 90 62.61 Jacksonville State
6 94 62.03 Northern Iowa
7 95 61.69 Chattanooga
8 97 61.49 James Madison
9 99 60.38 Coastal Carolina
10 103 59.53 William & Mary
11 104 59.52 Southern Utah
12 106 59.34 Portland State
13 108 59.16 Youngstown State
14 109 59.09 Sam Houston State
15 110 59.05 McNeese State
16 114 58.03 Southern Illinois
17 115 57.85 Richmond
18 117 57.74 Western Illinois
19 118 57.65 Eastern Washington
20 120 57.06 Dartmouth
21 122 56.55 Eastern Kentucky
22 123 56.17 The Citadel
23 128 53.70 Montana State
24 133 53.15 Montana
25 135 52.87 Charleston Southern
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.07 9
2 SEC 78.81 14
3 PAC-12 75.96 11
4 ACC 75.85 12
5 BIG TEN 75.61 10
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.50 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.92 7
8 MWC 60.58 4
9 MAC 59.42 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.77 2
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.94 3
12 SUN BELT 54.76 3
13 BIG SKY 47.88 1
14 COLONIAL 46.77 1
15 SOUTHERN 46.40 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.91 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 44.02 1
18 SOUTHLAND 41.35 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.39 1
20 PATRIOT 35.33 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.01 1
22 MID-EASTERN 31.60 1
23 SWAC 27.42 1
24 PIONEER 24.40 1
NDSU rated higher than ISUr again.
Top 3 FCS Sagarin Rankings thru 10/31/15:
66 NDSU
73 Illinois State
81 SDSU
Eight games in and five have been to prediction(<1score), while three have been outliers(>2scores). The Valley still owns the top-25, with 80% of the conference on the list, and taking just about one-third of the top-25 spots.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 11 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
66 North Dakota State 69.00
132 Montana 52.76 +13.46 -3.00 -16.46
168 Weber State 45.64 +26.14 +27.00 +0.86
172 North Dakota 45.10 +26.68 +25.00 -1.68
81 South Dakota State 66.26 -0.04 +21.00 +21.04
96 Northern Iowa 62.29 +9.49 +3.00 -6.49
150 South Dakota 50.41 +21.37 -3.00 -24.37
128 Indiana State 53.70 +12.52 +14.00 +1.48
113 Southern Illinois 58.12 +8.10 +6.00 -2.10
118 Western Illinois 56.52 +15.26
106 Youngstown State 59.76 +6.46
224 Missouri State 32.88 +38.90
73 Illinois State 67.80
Total Diff: -27.72
Home Field 2.78
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 66 69.00 North Dakota State
2 73 67.80 Illinois State
3 81 66.26 South Dakota State
4 85 65.25 Jacksonville State
5 86 64.76 Harvard
6 91 63.04 Chattanooga
7 96 62.29 Northern Iowa
8 99 61.61 Portland State
9 100 61.37 James Madison
10 101 61.27 Southern Utah
11 104 60.36 William & Mary
12 106 59.76 Youngstown State
13 108 59.20 Sam Houston State
14 109 58.81 Dartmouth
15 110 58.24 McNeese State
16 112 58.14 Coastal Carolina
17 113 58.12 Southern Illinois
18 117 56.61 Richmond
19 118 56.52 Western Illinois
20 120 56.14 Eastern Washington
21 122 55.82 The Citadel
22 124 55.01 Charleston Southern
23 127 53.95 Eastern Kentucky
24 128 53.70 Indiana State
25 132 52.76 Montana
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 79.56 10
2 SEC 77.96 13
3 PAC-12 75.56 11
4 ACC 75.82 11
5 BIG TEN 75.16 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.25 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.43 6
8 MWC 60.67 4
9 MAC 59.68 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.76 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.34 3
12 SUN BELT 54.62 3
13 BIG SKY 48.06 1
14 COLONIAL 46.51 1
15 SOUTHERN 46.55 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.99 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 44.35 1
18 SOUTHLAND 41.92 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.84 1
20 PATRIOT 35.74 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.53 1
22 MID-EASTERN 31.75 1
23 SWAC 27.29 1
24 PIONEER 24.60 1