With what has gone on with realignment over the last 20 years it is near impossible to predict what it will be like 7 years from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
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With what has gone on with realignment over the last 20 years it is near impossible to predict what it will be like 7 years from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
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Originally Posted by ringthebells
(Ten Char)
https://media.tenor.com/t9V2jH-4vhwAAAAM/tears.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by ringthebells
Quote:
Originally Posted by KSBisonFan
This pretty much mirrors my prior thoughts. A split is all but inevitable, and when it occurs, the resulting reorg is very likely to open the door for us to the 2nd tier. The writing has been on the wall a while, and pretty obvious to most watching FBS changes.Quote:
But it didn't make sense for everybody in the Mountain West. And that's why there wasn't an opportunity for them to join. But in the long run, I think there will be a change. And I think there will be a division that is created where the top 40-ish schools separate. And they, in my opinion, they'll collectively bargain with student-athletes. They will be employees, and those are budgets in the $250-300 million range. Then the rest of us will reconfigure where we are, and I wouldn't be surprised if that allowed for the Dakotas and the Montana schools to make some decisions.”
UNLV did get a PAC invite, they declined. Air Force was definitely a target but I haven't seen if they were officially offered. I suspect they were and declined, perhaps after giving a soft yes. The fact that the PAC was one short of the FBS minimum 8 football teams after the invites is really weird. Then they waited until the last possible day to invite Texas St, who was definitely not their preferred choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
Boise St might be the biggest loser. They had an unequal bonus share in the MWC. The new PAC deal looks to be pretty bad. Almost certainly higher than they had in the MWC, but probably only $1-2M/yr more. That'll take forever to pay the exit fees.
I think the informal split has happened in the last few months, with the P4 moving to a 9 game conference schedule, and the CFP prioritizing strength of schedule. The SEC also issuing OOC scheduling parameters basically limiting G6 FCS games consolidates everything to the P4. The other P4’s will follow the SEC and pay games for the G6 are going to get squeezed out. Those dollars are going to increase players spending and destination neutral site games which media partners will love, best players best leagues every week of the season, crossover matchups early in the season all in the same few media deals.
Where I differ from MWC on his post above is on the timeline for the PAC 12 | MWC. The 5th best Conference Champion CFP slot is basically the Cinderella story going forward and as soon as Memphis, Tulane, and UNLV figure out the P4 window is closed chasing Cinderella in the PAC12 is by far the best position. Add them you have access to the few remaining pay games and the AQ.
There might be some movement with the top of the ACC between the BIG10 and SEC but that just makes the ACC a similar to the PAC12.
Seems kind of pointless to mess with antitrust stuff by blowing everything up when the money and rules are going to get consolidated into 75% of what you want anyway.
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If those schools wish to move to the Pac they will need to hurry. Both the Pac and the MW media deals are coming out soon. Once the Grant of Rights things lock in it is very difficult to move. The AAC requires 27 months notice to leave. Anything is possible but it wouldn't be cheap.
1) waiting 27 months isn't as big a deal as previously for PAC now that they have 8 members.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
2) precedent shows that this time period frequently gets reduced along with exit fees during departure negotiations.
3) GoR lockins haven't been faring well when contested. ACC restructured theirs in a favorable way for members that want to depart in a few years under legal pressure. They were believed to have had one of the strongest GoRs, and it showed some cracks and risk of crumbling.
Pretty much agree with all of this except the last sentence.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
P4 will decide at some point, possibly soon that they want that last 25% too. They now have acquired legislative power in NCAA to create the new division they previously requested. All that is needed is to make the barrier a finance based one that only P4 can afford. That allows them to sidestep the antitrust laws most likely if it is well crafted. They will just adopt standards with costs that majority or all of G6 can't make work.
Agreed but UNLV, Tulane, and Memphis seem like outliers in the G6. Their combination of market size, P4 overlap, and cash doesn’t exist with other G6 schools. Certainly Tulane and Memphis could write the check whenever. UNLV is tricky with there debt and signing that fresh GOR, but the location is so juicy it could be something the PAC could support through financial assistance. I’m also curious if the new PAC deal will have any prorata carve outs | escalators like the SEC deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
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P4 in general may stabilize for 5 or 6 years, though that depends on a few things like whether or not they decide to create a new subdivision and what the criteria for that looks like.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
G6 are also starting to look like they have stabilized, with the notable exception of PAC - who I do think will look to add at least one more to get to 9. They would only pull from MW or AAC most likely.
I am actively rooting for PAC to expand, because without that we’re likely stuck in FCS until a bigger FBS reorg happens. Thats nothing personal against MW, would be very happy to join.
Wyoming AD interview statement made it clear MW current membership has no intention of adding FCS schools unless forced to do so. He stated that almost verbatim.
If the Pac is able to poach a full member from the MW, the league would elevate Davis to a full member to maintain the 8 all sports member minimum. The plan has always been for the MW to add Davis football in the next few years, anyway. This would just move up the timeline. Now if the MW lost more than one, that would change the equation, considerably.
I mean who would they take? UNLV? lol
Rainbow Warriors looked good though. I really enjoyed that game. 12 was awesome
Too bad that FCS game got cancelled last night. Mercer was finally waking up. Will this hurt Davis come playoff time? That was my thought at the time. Sucks for both teams
I’m not so sure the MW is as hype on moving Davis in Football as you appear to be with a few of your comments.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
They were given a meaningless fluff article in their agreement about being considered as the first choice. They fill an Olympic sports need.
*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*
Davis brings nothing to the Olympic sports scene. The only reason they were added was that it allows the MWC to call up an "FCS" school without getting it's pecker slapped since they will already be members of the conference.Quote:
Originally Posted by TAILG8R
There are a number of of really good non football schools that could have been added in the west instead of Davis. UC Irvine, UC Riverside, UC Santa Barbara, USF, St Mary's etc...What is a very rare in the PST zone is football playing schools. Davis is right smack dab in the middle of the Western side of the conference. With UTEP and Hawaii getting the conference to 8 full members the conference can be patient with Davis moving up football. In times of poaching and realignment it is not a bad idea to start formulating back up plans. In the mean time short and cheap travel to Davis for non revenue sports. I know you folks just see things through a football prism but conferences have to think about all sports.
Location location location. GCU and Davis provide two easy to get to warm whether sites for non revenue sports. Like I said there were any number of options in California to provide the same thing, but you are correct, sir. The football element is the difference. It wasn't a case where they picked Davis over top FCS schools. It was Davis over Sac State and Cal Poly. A no brainer..Quote:
Originally Posted by AKBison
Only two drives in but tarleton making army look like Indiana state.
Nevermind. Army woke up lolQuote:
Originally Posted by Kevin
Still within 7 in the 3rd qtr. Would be nuts if TSU pulled it off.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin
Either Army sucks this year, or Tarleton is much better than expected.
Tied now….Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Good game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin
Keeping the other eye on Colo & GT
That was a horrible series for TarletonQuote:
Originally Posted by NI4NI
Army with the missed FG, headed to OT. Holy moly.
If Tarleton pulls off the win, they'll probably be FBS by tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Golden opportunity for the Texans here!
Tarleton (is not a) State upsets army in 2OT.
Hat's off to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin
Entirely possible TSU > SHSU
Sam Houston trailing UNLV 14-7 early.
Da interwebs are certainly buzzing about that tonight all over the place.Quote:
Originally Posted by KSBisonFan
If/when CUSA looks to expand, they are one of the top candidates there. They've had discussions, could pair well with Sam Houston.
https://x.com/RedditCFB/status/1961610031453147312
Stan Houston has been a disappointment in FBS.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Its arguable outside of covid year they were largely a disappointment in FCS also.Quote:
Originally Posted by NI4NI
Western Illinois hanging tough with Illinois 52-3 in the 4th.
Gooooo leatherheads!
had a good team in 2011Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
That matchup never has made any sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin
Keeler hasn't accomplished anything with his owls either.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Ok, thats fair. But they generally didn't make it that far.Quote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
Tarleton is not a state.
I watched that game until there was a really questionable holding call that took a long TD away from Tarleton State. Tarleton State looked a bit like a Bison team with pulling OL and all - and they flew around on defense and tackled well.Quote:
Originally Posted by TAILG8R
The pre-game on CBS Sports had maybe 30 seconds on Tarleton - the "highlights" CBS Sports were just the OT FG attempts.
Definitely not how a sports network should cover football.
SHSU going for #1 and Missery St at #6 on this ESPN list
https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...week-1-alabama