Sagarin says

Quote:

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Originally Posted by McBison

I'm not hip to the inputs and outputs on this program...but is there a way to analyze only using this years match ups, and only our conference games? I guess maybe what I am thinking of would be a purely conference model.

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Yes and no. At this point in the season the algorithm only uses this seasons results. Early in the season some preseason ratings, presumably based on prior year results with some adjustments are used but after a number of weeks they're phased out entirely and only current year results are used.

There is no conference only option, because the point is to build something to compare teams who don't play each other. That is very hard to do without common opponents so eliminating nonconference games would weaken the usefulness of the exercise considerably.

Right on, thanks for the insight

Sagarin was effectively 50% at picking the playoff field. Interesting note: the MVFC is now ranked above C-USA in the regular Sagarin ratings.


Sagarin's final regular season predictions:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 45        North Dakota State        75.80                       
219        Robert Morris                34.22    +44.45    +52.00        + 7.55
127        Colorado State                57.96          +14.97    +15.00        + 0.03
236        Prairie View A&M        28.60          +50.07    +59.00        + 8.93
 76        Northern Iowa                66.89          + 6.04    +12.00        + 5.96
100        Youngstown State        61.47          +17.20    +41.00        +23.80
 94        Indiana State                63.04          +15.63    - 3.00        -18.63
179        South Dakota                46.50          +29.30    +54.00        +24.70
 95        Southern Illinois        62.81          +15.86    + 6.00        - 9.86
142        Missouri State                54.92          +18.01    + 4.00        -14.01
 88        South Dakota State        64.41          +14.26    + 3.00        -11.26
103        Illinois State                61.17          +11.76    +18.00        + 6.24
                                       
213        Western Illinois        36.60                       
                                                Total Diff:        +23.45
        Home                        2.87

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-15

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45  North Dakota State
 55  Sam Houston State
 76  Northern Iowa
 79  Montana State
 87  Georgia Southern
 88  South Dakota State
 89  Eastern Washington
 90  Cal Poly
 94  Indiana State
 95  Southern Illinois
 98  Central Arkansas
100  Youngstown State
103  Illinois State
105  Villanova
107  Towson

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Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        60.51
2.  Big Sky        54.74
3.  Colonial        53.78
4.  Southern        52.69

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Here's the playoff field. Predictions on our side of the bracket have home field factored in; predictions on the other side assume a neutral field. Game by game predictions show the path being SDSU - Wofford - Georgia Southern - SHSU. Looks a bit familiar.

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                              Sagarin          Predict
 45        North Dakota State        75.80       
 55        Sam Houston State        73.41    + 2.39
 79        Montana State                66.06          + 9.74
 87        Georgia Southern        64.51          +14.16
 88        South Dakota State        64.41          +14.26
 89        Eastern Washington        64.20          +11.60
 90        Cal Poly                63.83          +11.97
 98        Central Arkansas        62.00          +16.67
103        Illinois State                61.17          +14.63
105        Villanova                61.07          +14.73
111        Old Dominion                59.61          +19.06
115        Wofford                        59.16          +19.51
120        Eastern Illinois        58.74          +19.93
123        Stony Brook                58.46          +17.34
133        Appalachian State        56.75          +19.05
144        Bethune-Cookman                54.75          +23.92
145        New Hampshire                54.72          +23.95
152        Coastal Carolina        52.95          +25.72
167        Colgate                        49.99          +25.81
175        Wagner                        47.34          +28.46

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Here's the playoff field. Predictions on our side of the bracket have home field factored in; predictions on the other side assume a neutral field. Game by game predictions show the path being SDSU - Wofford - Georgia Southern - SHSU. Looks a bit familiar.

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                              Sagarin          Predict
 45        North Dakota State        75.80       
 55        Sam Houston State        73.41    + 2.39
 79        Montana State                66.06          + 9.74
 87        Georgia Southern        64.51          +14.16
 88        South Dakota State        64.41          +14.26
 89        Eastern Washington        64.20          +11.60
 90        Cal Poly                63.83          +11.97
 98        Central Arkansas        62.00          +16.67
103        Illinois State                61.17          +14.63
105        Villanova                61.07          +14.73
111        Old Dominion                59.61          +19.06
115        Wofford                        59.16          +19.51
120        Eastern Illinois        58.74          +19.93
123        Stony Brook                58.46          +17.34
133        Appalachian State        56.75          +19.05
144        Bethune-Cookman                54.75          +23.92
145        New Hampshire                54.72          +23.95
152        Coastal Carolina        52.95          +25.72
167        Colgate                        49.99          +25.81
175        Wagner                        47.34          +28.46

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Colgate vs Wagner, eh? Hmmmmmmm.

This is what Sagarin should be saying:

SCREW BEAST MODE...
BISON MODE ACTIVATED!
http://i1.cpcache.com/product/631980...ens_wallet.jpg

http://www.cafepress.com/+beast_mode...llet,631980449

Might have to buy that wallet.

Top 20 Sagarin – Italics did not make playoffs
51 North Dakota State 75.80
68 Sam Houston State 73.41
81 Montana State 66.06
83 South Dakota State 64.41
85 Eastern Washington 64.20
88 Central Arkansas 62.00
92 Cal Poly-SLO 63.83
93 Northern Iowa 66.89
95 Indiana State 63.04
97 Illinois State 61.17
98 Georgia Southern 64.51
99 Southern Illinois 62.81
101 Youngstown State 61.47
102 Eastern Kentucky 59.09
108 Tennessee-Martin 56.71
109 Eastern Illinois 58.74
111 McNeese State 58.86
112 Northern Arizona 59.55
114 Old Dominion 59.61
119 Wofford 59.16

Quote:

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Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

Top 20 Sagarin – Italics did not make playoffs
51 North Dakota State 75.80
68 Sam Houston State 73.41
81 Montana State 66.06
83 South Dakota State 64.41
85 Eastern Washington 64.20
88 Central Arkansas 62.00
92 Cal Poly-SLO 63.83
93 Northern Iowa 66.89
95 Indiana State 63.04
97 Illinois State 61.17
98 Georgia Southern 64.51
99 Southern Illinois 62.81
101 Youngstown State 61.47
102 Eastern Kentucky 59.09
108 Tennessee-Martin 56.71
109 Eastern Illinois 58.74
111 McNeese State 58.86
112 Northern Arizona 59.55
114 Old Dominion 59.61
119 Wofford 59.16

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So #1 NDSU likely gets to play #4 SDSU for their first game in a 20 team playoff. Thank you NCAA selection committee. F U too!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SDbison

So #1 NDSU likely gets to play #4 SDSU for their first game in a 20 team playoff. Thank you NCAA selection committee. F U too!

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I agree we got hosed but really if you look the whole conference got hosed..... Just saying

Quote:

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Originally Posted by unbison

I agree we got hosed but really if you look the whole conference got hosed..... Just saying

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So true. If the MVFC got 4 teams in the playoffs and each got in a different part of the bracket 3 of those 4 would likely be in the semi-finals. Just sayin!
Two teams from out east that are Sagarin rated 160 ish are in the playoffs. Wow!