Hey bootfitter, glad to see you taking over for Hammer. You and Hammer are the greatest, keep it up
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Hey bootfitter, glad to see you taking over for Hammer. You and Hammer are the greatest, keep it up
Has a lot to do with every team playing NDSU likes its their Super Bowl. Teams look ahead to NDSU, unless you are FBS and then you say you didnt look past them for a year only to switch to "players werent ready" or "we didnt take them seriously" approach like the classy KState staffQuote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
I won't pretend to understand gambling, but if NDSU is 5-4 against the spread that sounds like the spread was set correctly... shouldn't the winning team cover the spread 50% of the time?Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
Bingo Ive been betting on NDSU for 5 years now.
NDSU when they started this run in 2011 was always missed by Offshore/Vegas and a lot of us cashed in on their inadequate line setting.
starting last year 2013, Offshore/vegas would OVER value NDSU and they have gone overboard to put NDSU at a ridiculous spread so (-23 and -28 etc etc)
yes 5-4 for them is amazing, whereas 2-3 years ago NDSU was like 10-1 for them
All this statistic shit makes my head hurt, glad you guys know what you're doing and you share it with the rest of us!
You and me, both.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonridge
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view6/404...xplode-2-o.gif
I've been following this thread forever and just now at 3:27am the numbers/method clicked with me.... which was frustrating to me as I have always been good at reverse engineering formulasQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonridge
Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
Don't forget compassion and sportsmanship. How many times has NDSU ran the ball up the gut to grind out the clock instead of running up the score.Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Lets not stray into St. Louis Cardinals territory.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
A team being 5-4 against the spread is how it should work out. If NDSU was beating the spread every week, NDSU's rating would increase and it would become more and more difficult to beat the predicted spread. Also, keep in mind that the predicted spread for all games (including games already played) that Hammer has posted each week gets updated based on Sagarin's new ratings every week. So if NDSU was beating the spread consistently, the predicted spread for games already played would be adjusted accordingly, making it look like NDSU was not beating all of the spreads (although they may have beaten the predicted spread when that game actually occurred).Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
As far as the standard deviations, I would think a lot of that may have to do with NDSU being favored in every game, and being favored by a lot in some games. NDSU doesn't typically run up the score at the end of games, which makes it difficult to cover large spreads. I would guess that with more average teams, the games that are within 2 standard deviations are more evenly distributed, with about the same number on the low side as the high side.
ORLY.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
When's the last time a team scored negative points?
Since the model is designed to predict the margin of victory I'm not sure that's relevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
A neighbor of ours attended NDSU in the early 1970's. Said his Organic Chem tests were all true and false. +3 points for a correct answer, -6 for an incorrect, and +1 if you wrote "I don't know." He actually received a negative score on his first test. Ouch.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
NDSU may have scored negative points against UN_ in a cold, windy day, overcast day game at Dakotah Field in 1973(?). Worst game I ever saw the Bison play.
May be 75.Quote:
Originally Posted by VirginiaBison
Right, but the entire bell curve cannot be achieved, since anything to the left of a certain point, that represents zero points for the loser, is chopped off. Or am I all wet?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Not entirely all wet, no, the bell curve doesn't technically ever reach the zero bound so it runs out to infinity in both directions yielding absurdly large margins at either end that would imply not impossibly low scores for the losing team but impossibly high ones for the winning team, but those results also typically come with absurdly low probability.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
Again, we're not modeling team scores here we're modeling the margin of victory, so a three standard deviation event that's not a 42 point win, it's a win or loss by 42 points more or less than expected. Lots and lots of teams win by 42 points during the course of a season but we'd only expect three or four events a year where the margin of victory was 42 points different from the model's expectation.
Additionally, we know that we're using a continuous function to model results that can only occur in integers, but the normal distribution has some very nice features, like the central limit theorem, so when it's a good fit for the data, and it is in this case, you can use it.
In any event, it's a model, a mere approximation of reality, and some may say that given the relatively large standard deviation, it's not even a particularly good approximation of reality. The challenge then is to design a better one.
You might be right that the entire bell curve cannot be achieved, but I don't think the zero is the limiting factor in this situation. I think the limiting factor would be the maximum number of points a team could theoretically score in a game. I'm not sure what that maximum theoretical number is though, if there even is one. If there is a way for a team to score back to back without any time running off the clock, then I suppose the maximum margin of victory would be infinity. Then maybe the entire bell curve would be achieved? I'm not sure how that works.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
Blutarsky laughs in your neighbor's general direction.Quote:
Originally Posted by cbline
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/VrgVFPO_OJc/hqdefault.jpghttp://futuresight.dewlines.org/file.../02/Bluto1.jpg
I'm not sure if Hammersmith is still on hiatus, as I think I've seen him still on here a bit, but I figured I'd post this just in case. I altered the format slightly, but I believe I am still showing all the same information that he had been showing, plus a few extra bits that I thought would be interesting. I created some formulas in Excel to extract the information, and this format was easier to produce. I'm open to any feedback anyone may have, including reverting to the familiar way that Hammersmith had been posting.
Not unexpectedly, we dropped a few points due to underperforming against Sagarin's prediction. UNI jumped up a few points as well. Surprisingly, Western Illinois just made the top 25.
Sagarin's Week 12 Predictions
Note that I added the strength of schedule (SOS) rating and rank, as well as conference affiliation below. It is kind of fun to see all those MVFC teams in the top 25.Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
38 North Dakota State 76.40
80 Iowa State 66.19 +7.06 +20.00 +12.94
206 Weber State 41.16 +32.09 +17.00 -15.09
232 Incarnate Word 29.11 +50.44 +58.00 +7.56
135 Montana 55.24 +24.31 +12.00 -12.31
127 Western Illinois 56.04 +17.21 +7.00 -10.21
95 Southern Illinois 62.75 +16.80 +28.00 +11.20
104 Indiana State 61.12 +18.43 +17.00 -1.43
174 South Dakota 47.62 +25.63 +40.00 +14.37
81 South Dakota State 66.11 +13.44 +20.00 +6.56
66 Northern Iowa 69.56 +3.69 -20.00 -23.69
120 Missouri State 58.29 +14.96
102 Youngstown State 61.63 +17.92
62 Illinois State 70.13
Total Diff: -10.10
Home Field 3.15
Sagarin FCS Top-25
Code:
Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 38 76.40 North Dakota State 56.50 133 Missouri Valley
2 58 71.46 Jacksonville State 50.26 175 Ohio Valley
3 62 70.13 Illinois State 55.41 136 Missouri Valley
4 66 69.56 Northern Iowa 59.75 116 Missouri Valley
5 77 66.49 New Hampshire 47.89 188 Colonial
6 81 66.11 South Dakota State 64.98 79 Missouri Valley
7 84 65.86 Chattanooga 52.83 156 Southern
8 85 65.68 Harvard 40.35 226 Ivy League
9 86 65.49 Coastal Carolina 44.57 204 Big South
10 88 64.90 Villanova 48.71 182 Colonial
11 95 62.75 Southern Illinois 59.14 122 Missouri Valley
12 99 62.24 SE Louisiana 46.81 195 Southland
13 100 62.18 Eastern Washington 50.77 168 Big Sky
14 102 61.63 Youngstown State 54.47 141 Missouri Valley
15 104 61.12 Indiana State 62.89 93 Missouri Valley
16 106 60.68 Fordham 41.86 219 Patriot
17 107 60.56 Sam Houston State 53.08 153 Southland
18 110 60.38 Liberty 51.31 165 Big South
19 111 60.37 Samford 50.69 170 Southern
20 115 59.44 Richmond 48.68 183 Colonial
21 117 58.62 McNeese State 47.38 192 Southland
22 120 58.29 Missouri State 60.04 110 Missouri Valley
23 121 58.12 Idaho State 54.21 143 Big Sky
24 124 57.47 Eastern Illinois 52.45 159 Ohio Valley
25 127 56.04 Western Illinois 63.14 91 Missouri Valley
I'm showing the conference rankings in one table, sorted by the conference rating (CentralMean). I am also showing the rating for the highest ranked team in each conference (ConfMax) and finally where NDSU would fall in each conference.
Conference Rankings
Code:
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank
P5 SEC 85.64 98.84 13
P5 BIG 12 78.98 93.20 6
P5 PAC-12 78.11 91.29 8
P5 BIG TEN 74.10 89.44 5
P5 ACC 74.07 87.43 7
NA I-A INDEPENDENTS 69.66 83.85 2
G5 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 63.99 74.05 1
G5 MWC 63.29 77.70 2
FCS MISSOURI VALLEY 63.02 76.40 1
G5 CONFERENCE USA 58.84 78.97 2
G5 MAC 57.29 67.43 1
G5 SUN BELT 55.38 70.37 1
FCS BIG SOUTH 50.13 65.49 1
FCS COLONIAL 49.60 66.49 1
FCS SOUTHERN 49.44 65.86 1
FCS SOUTHLAND 48.93 62.24 1
FCS BIG SKY 47.76 62.18 1
FCS OHIO VALLEY 47.47 71.46 1
FCS PATRIOT 45.03 60.68 1
FCS IVY LEAGUE 43.99 65.68 1
FCS NORTHEAST 42.92 54.39 1
FCS I-AA INDEPENDENTS 42.37 42.37 1
FCS MID-EASTERN 35.52 51.36 1
FCS SWAC 32.07 51.65 1
FCS PIONEER 28.58 45.97 1
Thanks, Bootfitter, for the post and extra data fields. Glad the loss didn't hurt us even worse in the power rankings.
NDSU still top dog in the FCS according to Sagarin.
Numbers and stuff:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/h...of-cincinnati/
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Missouri State 86.6% (-2.5% from last week)
Youngstown State 90.7% (-4.0%)
11-1 78.5% (+46.8% from last week)
10-2 20.3% (+16.2%)
9-3 1.3% (+1.1%)
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
So, still over 78% to likely lock up home field, but chances have clearly risen to play some games on the road.....Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Odd. The USA Today page is updated already, but Sagarin's page isn't yet (again). Both pages seem to have the data stored in the same format, but when I pull from the USA Today page into my automated formulas, it doesn't work.
Anyway, we stayed at the same rank in Sagarin's RATING system (#38), but we jumped up over a point. I'll update the stats once I can either figure out the reason for the difference or when the Sagarin page is updated.
I say FCS should retire all polls and just use Sagarin. That has NDSU #1 and UNI #2. That is accurate....
Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Careful what you wish for...
Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions
Wow! Four of the top five from the MVFC!Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
38 North Dakota State 77.53
76 Iowa State 66.79 +7.59 +20.00 +12.41
204 Weber State 41.99 +32.39 +17.00 -15.39
230 Incarnate Word 29.82 +50.86 +58.00 +7.14
128 Montana 55.99 +24.69 +12.00 -12.69
132 Western Illinois 55.41 +18.97 +7.00 -11.97
109 Southern Illinois 60.86 +19.82 +28.00 +8.18
101 Indiana State 61.59 +19.09 +17.00 -2.09
177 South Dakota 47.46 +26.92 +40.00 +13.08
74 South Dakota State 67.43 +13.25 +20.00 +6.75
58 Northern Iowa 71.27 +3.11 -20.00 -23.11
124 Missouri State 56.81 +17.57 +35.00 +17.43
110 Youngstown State 60.09 +20.59
66 Illinois State 69.69
Total Diff: -0.26
Home Field 3.15
Sagarin FCS Top-25
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 38 77.53 North Dakota State 57.07 130 Missouri Valley
2 58 71.27 Northern Iowa 60.86 105 Missouri Valley
3 65 70.04 Jacksonville State 51.28 158 Ohio Valley
4 66 69.69 Illinois State 54.62 144 Missouri Valley
5 74 67.43 South Dakota State 63.14 92 Missouri Valley
6 82 65.79 New Hampshire 47.03 192 Colonial
7 86 65.35 Coastal Carolina 44.24 206 Big South
8 89 64.56 Chattanooga 50.47 167 Southern
9 90 64.51 Villanova 48.51 181 Colonial
10 94 63.42 Harvard 39.33 227 Ivy League
11 95 63.26 Eastern Washington 51.10 163 Big Sky
12 98 62.17 SE Louisiana 47.18 190 Southland
13 101 61.59 Indiana State 62.32 100 Missouri Valley
14 103 61.48 Sam Houston State 50.16 170 Southland
15 107 61.07 Fordham 40.31 225 Patriot
16 109 60.86 Southern Illinois 60.13 110 Missouri Valley
17 110 60.09 Youngstown State 54.31 146 Missouri Valley
18 114 58.52 Eastern Illinois 54.64 143 Ohio Valley
19 115 58.44 Samford 49.44 176 Southern
20 118 57.80 Liberty 50.56 166 Big South
21 122 57.05 Idaho State 54.69 142 Big Sky
22 123 56.97 McNeese State 50.39 168 Southland
23 124 56.81 Missouri State 61.24 103 Missouri Valley
24 125 56.78 Richmond 49.14 178 Colonial
25 126 56.23 James Madison 51.28 159 Colonial
Looks like Marshall passed us up from the Conf-USA.Code:
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank
P5 SEC 85.02 97.76 13
P5 BIG 12 79.11 93.38 7
P5 PAC-12 78.53 92.66 8
P5 BIG TEN 74.72 89.47 5
P5 ACC 74.34 86.77 7
NA I-A INDEPENDENTS 69.07 81.53 2
G5 MWC 63.75 76.18 1
G5 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 63.36 75.23 1
FCS MISSOURI VALLEY 62.67 77.53 1
G5 CONFERENCE USA 59.43 79.78 2
G5 MAC 57.11 66.70 1
G5 SUN BELT 55.27 68.35 1
FCS BIG SOUTH 49.84 65.35 1
FCS COLONIAL 49.62 65.79 1
FCS SOUTHLAND 48.80 62.17 1
FCS SOUTHERN 48.20 64.56 1
FCS OHIO VALLEY 47.88 70.04 1
FCS BIG SKY 47.74 63.26 1
FCS PATRIOT 44.62 61.07 1
FCS I-AA INDEPENDENTS 43.18 43.18 1
FCS IVY LEAGUE 42.52 63.42 1
FCS NORTHEAST 42.47 52.03 1
FCS MID-EASTERN 36.34 50.40 1
FCS SWAC 31.48 51.37 1
FCS PIONEER 27.67 44.49 1
4 Valley teams in Sagarin FCS top 5...wow!
That could have as many as 8 MVFC teams in the playoffs although I'm sure there are some autobids that won't be in the top 24.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
And 8 in the top 25.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Some of the most major conference dominance I have witnessed. Hopefully we aren't all forced to kill each other off right away come playoff time.Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueBisonRock
That's a great point. Not only could we be forced to all eliminate the rest of the conference, the survivor is beat up from a couple more conference games. There aren't too many schools out there that play as physical as valley schools. So it sure seems very fair that not only do the valley teams earn a playoff spot, but they should have to beat up each other again to advance. Maybe that is the equalizer. When the New Hampshires or EWUs finally face a valley team, they are extra tenderized.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
It isn't fair to any of the valley schools to get through the conference and then have to face the conference to advance again. Might as well drop the playoffs to eight teams and have nothing but conference champions. Obviously, the NCAAs are not about fairness. By the way, I thought the UNH/Maine matchup was pretty weak too last year.
Sent from my SM-T230NU using Tapatalk
Yep, it is stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by td577
If it were your pocketbook paying for travel, you might not think it so stupid. Is it less pure than it could be? Sure. But it's probably not a bad solution considering the funds that are available. That's the world we live in. Sometimes compromises are made.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
I get that side of it, as well. It just sucks sometimes given that maybe the most deserving schools might not get the best draw based on strength because geography plays a part. It is what it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Sent from my SM-T230NU using Tapatalk
That is why my point of view on this might be construed as greedy. I hate the idea of possibly 4-5 MVFC teams being clumped together in the playoffs (or any conference for that matter). I myself no matter if it is right or wrong would rather see no more than three make it from any conference. Bad enough that we have to beat each other up during the regular season but then we would be counted on to take each other out during the playoffs to make it easier for the rest of the teams to advance. I know it is a pocketbook decision and my thought is that at this level if you can't afford to send you team across the country then why are you playing in the FCS, let a team in that isn't going to complain about the fact they are lucky to be there in the first place make the trip for a shot at a national title.Quote:
Originally Posted by td577
I don't have a problem if there are MVFC matchups in the second round.
I'll be pissed when all 4 or 5 MVFC teams are on the same side of the bracket.
The NCAA won't match up teams from the same conference if it is the 1st playoff game for both teams. That does still allow for scenarios like past years when NDSU had a 1st round bye and SDSU one their 1st round game so we wound up playing SDSU in our 1st game, but it was their 2nd.