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Now for silliness. According to Sag, NDSU would now be at the bottom of the Big 12(only above Kansas), middle of the Pac-12, SEC & Big Ten, fourth-best in the ACC, second-best in the Big East(Cincy) & Mountain West(Boise St), and the top team of C-USA, Sun Belt, WAC & MAC.
This and $3.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
With NDSU's rating up nearly 4 points and with the ratings of our remaining opponents decreasing by nearly 5 points Sagarin's prediction of the rest of the regular season looks like this. Calculations give USD full credit for home field and I'll St credit for coming off a bye.
Ind St 92.0%
USD 94.7%
S Ill 95.8%
Mo St 97.7%
SDSU 88.8%
Ill St 76.1%
11-0 75.2%
10-1 22.3%
9-2 2.4%
8-3 0.1%
7-4 0.003%
6-5 0.00004%
5-6 0.0000002%
Don't know the first thing about computer rankings. But with being the only FCS school ranked anywhere near us, what are the chances we actually drop spots after later weeks in the season because of SOS?
A lot. Unless we completely blow everyone out from here on, I'd expect a drop into the high 40s by the end of the season. But that's just guessing.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
It's hard to say definitively because the model completely reevaluates the relationships between all the teams each time it gets more data but in general if you win by the margin that the model projects you wouldn't expect much change, if you win by less that would put downward pressure, win by more upward pressure.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
I hope you'll forgive me that I chose to "forget" to do this this morning. We fall, but ISUb doesn't rise. Strange.
Sagarin's predictions for week 7:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
51 North Dakota State 74.67
228 Robert Morris 33.09 +44.37 +52.00 + 7.63
148 Colorado State 53.53 +18.35 +15.00 - 3.35
234 Prairie View A&M 29.40 +48.06 +59.00 +10.94
95 Northern Iowa 63.43 + 8.45 +12.00 + 3.55
118 Youngstown State 60.12 +17.34 +41.00 +23.66
120 Indiana State 59.72 +17.74 - 3.00 -20.74
168 South Dakota 49.57 +25.10
141 Southern Illinois 54.82 +22.64
180 Missouri State 46.22 +25.66
110 South Dakota State 60.91 +16.55
125 Illinois State 58.25 +13.63
191 Western Illinois 43.89
Home 2.79
Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS ConferencesCode:51 North Dakota State
78 Georgia Southern
82 Eastern Washington
86 Harvard
89 Cal Poly
95 Northern Iowa
96 Sam Houston State
98 Wofford
105 James Madison
108 Villanova
Code:1. MVFC 57.30
2. Colonial 56.53
3. Southern 55.46
4. Big Sky 54.50
Does losing to 2 Big Ten teams really screw up Sagarin or what??
As far as ranking goes outside of UNI it all depends on how good you thought each of the teams were before the games this weekend. If you saw NDSU head and shoulders above everyone then this makes sense. If you saw us one spot ahead of GSU and 2 above EWU, then with their wins this weekend then we take a tumble.
I am curious how Harvard is staying at the top or really how they got there in the first place?? Outside of beating everyone on their schedule of course.
The Ivies don't play enough games outside of their conference to be "well-connected" and fit the Sagarin model.
ISUb improved 2.54 while we fell 3.84. All our prior opponents lost or were idle and all of them but Robert Morris saw their Sagarin number decrease. All of our remaining opponents except USD won and saw their Sagarin number improve.
10-1 61.5%
9-2 32.4%
8-3 5.6%
7-4 0.4%
6-5 0.01%
5-6 0.0002%
USD 95.0%
S Ill 95.2%
Mo St 97.0%
SDSU 88.9%
Ill St 78.9%