A new and better FBS thread

Posted this elsewhere but found it interesting and relevant to realignment.

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Streaming appears to have reached its inflection point. According to new data released by Nielsen Research, linear TV viewership (cable + broadcast TV) accounted for less than 50% of all TV usage last month for the first time ever.

Per the data:

Broadcast and cable TV represented a record-low 49.6% of total TV usage in July. Compared to this time last year, broadcast viewing was down 5.4%, and cable viewing was down 12.5%.
On the flip side, streaming usage increased ~25% over the past year, and streaming services like YouTube and Netflix accounted for a record ~39% of total US TV usage in July (the category’s largest share reported to date).
And, like The Little Engine That Could, this trend is set to keep on going. By the end of 2025, cord cutters – defined as those without a TV subscription from a cable, satellite, or telco TV access provider – will comprise an estimated 72% of US households.

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Originally Posted by TAILG8R

Posted this elsewhere but found it interesting and relevant to realignment.

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I find this funny. Now that we're just about done destroying college sports to appease linear TV, linear TV now accounts for less than 1/2 of viewership.

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Originally Posted by Gully

I find this funny. Now that we're just about done destroying college sports to appease linear TV, linear TV now accounts for less than 1/2 of viewership.

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We're lucky in a way to have both a local broadcast with WDAY and streaming with ESPN+

Hope where ever we land, we continue to have both "linear" and "streaming" ... otherwise it seems you miss out on 50% of the viewers.

Four AAC schools set to join the Pac-12 expansion as George Kliavkoff looks for a last-minute revival: Reports

https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/coll...evival-reports

Makes sense. The AAC has some TV money though

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Originally Posted by HerdBot

Four AAC schools set to join the Pac-12 expansion as George Kliavkoff looks for a last-minute revival: Reports

https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/coll...evival-reports

Makes sense. The AAC has some TV money though

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So what’s gonna happen here….PAC 4 and 4 AAC schools then poach a SDSU and Boise?

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Originally Posted by daddy daycare

So what’s gonna happen here….PAC 4 and 4 AAC schools then poach a SDSU and Boise?

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if Pac 4 takes those AAC teams... AAC has openings.

in 2025 when MWC exit fees go down. SDSU BOISE FRESNO UNLV. go to Pac 12 as well making it 12.

should be 2 conferences looking to backfill and NDSU better get ready

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Originally Posted by daddy daycare

So what’s gonna happen here….PAC 4 and 4 AAC schools then poach a SDSU and Boise?

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This is one scenario that I have seen. The other is that with 4(or more) schools leaving the AAC some think the whole conference might decide to join the PAC for a super conference.

Let's hope for the former.

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Originally Posted by El_Chapo

if Pac 4 takes those AAC teams... AAC has openings.

in 2025 when MWC exit fees go down. SDSU BOISE FRESNO UNLV. go to Pac 12 as well making it 12.

should be 2 conferences looking to backfill and NDSU better get ready

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Exactly.

Since the AAC has more to offer in TV revenue... probably a better choice for us in the short term

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Originally Posted by HerdBot

Exactly.

Since the AAC has more to offer in TV revenue... probably a better choice for us in the short term

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No idea if this will change, but AAC has been paying the new members half of what MWC pays out.

Around $2.5m for new AAC members, the legacy members get $7m.
MWC pays everyone $4m.

Moving to AAC we'd have to come up with more cash, 500k over what we make now wouldn't offset the travel.

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Originally Posted by daddy daycare

So what’s gonna happen here….PAC 4 and 4 AAC schools then poach a SDSU and Boise?

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Everything I've seen is they plan to add 2-4 MWC schools afterwards to reduce the exit fee problem.
SDSU is presumed in, and likely at least one more. Could be Fresno instead of Boise, or maybe they take 4 and add someone like UNLV.
Others are in the mix too potentially, I've seen Air Force and CSU mentioned.

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Originally Posted by BigHorns

No idea if this will change, but AAC has been paying the new members half of what MWC pays out.

Around $2.5m for new AAC members, the legacy members get $7m.
MWC pays everyone $4m.

Moving to AAC we'd have to come up with more cash, 500k over what we make now wouldn't offset the travel.

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Assuming the legacy teams are still around

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Originally Posted by TAILG8R

This is one scenario that I have seen. The other is that with 4(or more) schools leaving the AAC some think the whole conference might decide to join the PAC for a super conference.

Let's hope for the former.

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Worst case is that they do what that article suggests and use those 4 as leverage to dissolve the conference.
PAC then takes who they want, and the 3 or 4 leftovers scatter to other conferences and fill them up.

Just like we want PAC to survive, we also want AAC to survive.

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Originally Posted by HerdBot

Assuming the legacy teams are still around

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If they aren't, the media deal is likely to get blown up and reduced.
They are already close to triggering a renegotiation with ESPN from what I've read.
Losing Houston, Cincinnati and UCF hurt them from a media value perspective.
If they lose a few more, the contract gets revisited.

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Originally Posted by BigHorns

If they aren't, the media deal is likely to get blown up and reduced.
They are already close to triggering a renegotiation with ESPN from what I've read.
Losing Houston, Cincinnati and UCF hurt them from a media value perspective.
If they lose a few more, the contract gets revisited.

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Good point. Interested to see who is superior after all the gutting of the MW and AAC. You may see both teams fighting over what remains. Air Force could end up playing a significant role

Not that NDSU has the ability to choose or even influence this, but which option (MWC or AAC) do folks like best for NDSU? I would gladly take either, but if I could choose, I think I'm on team AAC.

Of course, I suppose it depends on which teams remain in both respective conferences. That would influence the answer.

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Originally Posted by Gully

Not that NDSU has the ability to choose or even influence this, but which option (MWC or AAC) do folks like best for NDSU? I would gladly take either, but if I could choose, I think I'm on team AAC.

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Going to be interesting to see where the dominoes fall for sure. AAC I I think would be best as well - from a consumer standpoint, travel and game times, etc. Obviously many other factors.

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Originally Posted by daddy daycare

Going to be interesting to see where the dominoes fall for sure. AAC I I think would be best as well - from a consumer standpoint, travel and game times, etc. Obviously many other factors.

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NDSU into the AAC is an easier path for NDSU to the Big 12 in 5 years.. wink wink new stadium wink wink

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Originally Posted by Gully

Of course, I suppose it depends on which teams remain in both respective conferences. That would influence the answer.

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Pretty much this and the media deal are the two biggest factors.

If AAC loses their top 6 or so, that conference starts to fall significantly below MWC in competition, prestige and payout.
Some rumors had up to 9-11 schools leaving.

Ideally we would want to join whichever conference is least "gutted" by the PAC.

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Originally Posted by BigHorns

Pretty much this and the media deal are the two biggest factors.

If AAC loses their top 6 or so, that conference starts to fall significantly below MWC in competition, prestige and payout.
Some rumors had up to 9-11 schools leaving.

Ideally we would want to join whichever conference is least "gutted" by the PAC.

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Ideally, you would want to join the new Pac.

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Originally Posted by MWC

Ideally, you would want to join the new Pac.

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If we're talking like that then ideally we would want to join the B1G or at least the Big 12. I mean, if we're just daydreaming out here.

Wouldn’t the CAA raid the Sun Belt first before looking our direction? I always forget about the Sun Belt and where their media deal sits

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Originally Posted by Sun Bison

If we're talking like that then ideally we would want to join the B1G or at least the Big 12. I mean, if we're just daydreaming out here.

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NDSU to the Ivy League if we're really dreaming.

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Originally Posted by tony

NDSU to the Ivy League if we're really dreaming.

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They don't participate in the playoffs boss. Boooo.

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Originally Posted by Gully

Of course, I suppose it depends on which teams remain in both respective conferences. That would influence the answer.

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Originally Posted by Gully

Not that NDSU has the ability to choose or even influence this, but which option (MWC or AAC) do folks like best for NDSU? I would gladly take either, but if I could choose, I think I'm on team AAC.

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It depends. If the AAC loses SMU, Memphis, Tulane and Navy... they might have to replace them with Conference USA teams like UTEP, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State

But if the MW loses Boise, San Diego State, Air Forcd and Colorado State

I think the wildcard could be if the Pac 12 can somehow poach a Sunbelt team like Marshall

Honestly the Pac 12 would look intruiging

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Originally Posted by tony

NDSU to the Ivy League if we're really dreaming.

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Ivy League? More like Shmivy league! *BURN*

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Originally Posted by HerdBot

It depends. If the AAC loses SMU, Memphis, Tulane and Navy... they might have to replace them with Conference USA teams like UTEP, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State

But if the MW loses Boise, San Diego State, Air Forcd and Colorado State

I think the wildcard could be if the Pac 12 can somehow poach a Sunbelt team like Marshall

Honestly the Pac 12 would look intruiging

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If the MWC takes NDSU, SDSU and the Montana schools it seems kind of like a slam dunk to me.

On a somewhat related note. Gloria Nevarez was on 365 sports today and she said that the sweet spot for the MW is 14 to 16 schools. That is a change in philosophy and clearly driven by all the stuff going on right now. The WAC 16 was such a mess the airport meeting created the MW. However, there is going to be a number of larger conference membership totals going forward.

To be sure, the MW would love to add OSU and Wazzu (though who knows if that will happen). Stanford ain't happening and Cal is likely a no as well.

But say the 2 northwest Pacific time zone schools were indeed added, the MW may certainly look east to balance out the mountain side a bit.

I do not know if your school would be interested or if the MW would be interested in you or even going to 16 but...maybe...

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Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

If the MWC takes NDSU, SDSU and the Montana schools it seems kind of like a slam dunk to me.

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If any FBS conference would get those 4 teams, it would be a slam dunk. Even Conference USA

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Originally Posted by MWC

On a somewhat related note. Gloria Nevarez was on 365 sports today and she said that the sweet spot for the MW is 14 to 16 schools. That is a change in philosophy and clearly driven by all the stuff going on right now. The WAC 16 was such a mess the airport meeting created the MW. However, there is going to be a number of larger conference membership totals going forward.

To be sure, the MW would love to add OSU and Wazzu (though who knows if that will happen). Stanford ain't happening and Cal is likely a no as well.

But say the 2 northwest Pacific time zone schools were indeed added, the MW may certainly look east to balance out the mountain side a bit.

I do not know if your school would be interested or if the MW would be interested in you or even going to 16 but...maybe...

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Of course we are
Good to see Gloria see the light. I think she's right

How does Aresco feel? Probably the same I would guess

Interesting if not unsettling times, and I say that as an NDSU fan who likes our odds going forward. I find the B1G particularly annoying for some reason

Some of today's take aways.

1. She’s firm on the $17 mil and $34 mil exit fees.
2. She knows just about all the decision makers of the PAC-4 well.
3. She thinks the MWC being at 14 or 16 schools (with 2 to 4 of the right added schools) to be the sweet spot right now.
4. Very open to taking Olympic Sports only members.
5. Our TV deal allows us to open up the deal when adding new members and can add them as pro-rata or negotiated at a higher than pro-rata amount.

For your case, the willingness to take olympic sports only might open the door for a football only invitation.

Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes on rebuilding the Pac-12: ‘That’s certainly our goal’

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There may be one emerging end to that path, as Barnes expressed a desire to rebuild some version of the league that just fell apart. And, more importantly, a level of belief that the four teams left behind – Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford – could be the driving forces behind it, instead of taking an every-school-for-itself mentality.

“A real shot, but it won’t be without difficulty,” Barnes said. “But yes, I do emphatically believe that four of us, as foundational members, can build something back that is real, tangible, and sets the course for the future.”

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Originally Posted by HerdBot

It depends. If the AAC loses SMU, Memphis, Tulane and Navy... they might have to replace them with Conference USA teams like UTEP, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State

But if the MW loses Boise, San Diego State, Air Forcd and Colorado State

I think the wildcard could be if the Pac 12 can somehow poach a Sunbelt team like Marshall

Honestly the Pac 12 would look intruiging

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Marshall seems highly unlikely to move to PAC, the academics wouldn't make Cal and Stanford happy. Marshall also relatively happy in SBC with nearby rivals. Marshall vs App St is a huge rivalry. Thus far, all the rumored PAC targets are a combination of AAC and MWC schools.

AAC most likely backfills if they get raided is a combination of CUSA and possibly one or two SBC teams.
Texas St and Georgia St are the schools most likely to move to AAC from SBC, though possible none do.

Current AAC member schools believe their media deal is going to be torn up and slashed if they lose the PAC targets.
They are still hoping they can add two or more of the PAC schools instead, though this is starting to look unlikely.
In the prior round, AAC was talking about adding B12 and MWC schools, and that didn't work at all.
Some are talking now about bailing to the SBC if it gets bad. Lots of moving parts here still.

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Originally Posted by NDSUstudent

If the MWC takes NDSU, SDSU and the Montana schools it seems kind of like a slam dunk to me.

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This is one of the better (maybe best) outcomes in my mind.
Especially if MWC only lost one or two schools and could keep or improve the media deal.

Another factor with AAC is half those schools (the "legacy" ones) all want to leave. The conference you join there could change again within 2 years.
Top half of the AAC is strong today (before any departures), bottom half is below SBC and MAC.

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Originally Posted by BigHorns

Another factor with AAC is half those schools (the "legacy" ones) all want to leave. The conference you join there could change again within 2 years.
Top half of the AAC is strong today (before any departures), bottom half is below SBC and MAC.

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Adjacent to your point is the fact that the MAC is sitting right there, basically in our footprint (yeah, a stretch but not by as much as elsewhere) and once we join with SDSU, we'll help the conference take a step up. The MAC is also stable, which is nice.

As much as I'd like the Bison to be in the MWC so that I can easily travel to more games, today's MWC is not what tomorrow's will be. Also, the MAC is way better for recruiting given that moms and dads can travel better for multiple games.

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Originally Posted by OrygunBison

Adjacent to your point is the fact that the MAC is sitting right there, basically in our footprint (yeah, a stretch but not by as much as elsewhere) and once we join with SDSU, we'll help the conference take a step up. The MAC is also stable, which is nice.

As much as I'd like the Bison to be in the MWC so that I can easily travel to more games, today's MWC is not what tomorrow's will be. Also, the MAC is way better for recruiting given that moms and dads can travel better for multiple games.

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I doubt the MAC schools can afford the travel to the XDSUs.

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Originally Posted by OrygunBison

Adjacent to your point is the fact that the MAC is sitting right there, basically in our footprint (yeah, a stretch but not by as much as elsewhere) and once we join with SDSU, we'll help the conference take a step up. The MAC is also stable, which is nice.

As much as I'd like the Bison to be in the MWC so that I can easily travel to more games, today's MWC is not what tomorrow's will be. Also, the MAC is way better for recruiting given that moms and dads can travel better for multiple games.

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No MAC school is going to add the XDSU’s. It’s a bus conference.

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Originally Posted by OrygunBison

Adjacent to your point is the fact that the MAC is sitting right there, basically in our footprint (yeah, a stretch but not by as much as elsewhere) and once we join with SDSU, we'll help the conference take a step up. The MAC is also stable, which is nice.

As much as I'd like the Bison to be in the MWC so that I can easily travel to more games, today's MWC is not what tomorrow's will be. Also, the MAC is way better for recruiting given that moms and dads can travel better for multiple games.

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I still think MAC could make a lot of sense along with SDSU or a couple others.

A bit hard to know where everything lands, but by December timeframe it should be clear what the PAC schools are doing, and some of the cascade effects from that. A little patience could very likely open some doors, and maybe a couple different options for us.

From a conference standpoint, I don't really care as much about the brand, as which schools are there when we join, and how likely they are to stay a while. The membership is far more important than the brand they play under. The stronger the members are, the better.

NDSU only!
no partners to MWC OR AAC is how NDSU gets better as a program and even moreso as an university!!

NDSU would stand apart from everyone in the region and further stamp their national status.

Somebody is having fun with this:

https://pac-4.com/