Sagarin says

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (4.06 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Western Illinois 96.5% (+0.1% from last week)
Southern Illinois 91.0% (+2.4%)
Indiana State 97.3% (-1.0%)
South Dakota 90.6% (+0.2%)
South Dakota State 79.3% (-1.0%)
Northern Iowa 66.5% (-6.0%)
Missouri State 77.5% (-5.2%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (-1.1%)

12-0 29.3% (-1.7% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+1.0%)
10-2 22.4% (+0.9%)
9-3 6.2% (=0.0%)
8-4 1.0% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.004%
5-7 0.0001%
4-8 0.000001%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (4.06 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Western Illinois 96.5% (+0.1% from last week)
Southern Illinois 91.0% (+2.4%)
Indiana State 97.3% (-1.0%)
South Dakota 90.6% (+0.2%)
South Dakota State 79.3% (-1.0%)
Northern Iowa 66.5% (-6.0%)
Missouri State 77.5% (-5.2%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (-1.1%)

12-0 29.3% (-1.7% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+1.0%)
10-2 22.4% (+0.9%)
9-3 6.2% (=0.0%)
8-4 1.0% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.004%
5-7 0.0001%
4-8 0.000001%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

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Uni game scares me.....

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Uni game scares me.....

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They all make me a little bit nervous. Well... except maybe the Leathernecks.

I'd be very happy to get out of the Valley with only two losses. Anything better than that is a bonus for this year in my book.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Uni game scares me.....

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IF they are healthy, they make me nervous. Anything less than 100% for them and I think we take the game in a close one.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

They all make me a little bit nervous. Well... except maybe the Leathernecks.

I'd be very happy to get out of the Valley with only two losses. Anything better than that is a bonus for this year in my book.

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We just defeated 2/4 of our toughest opponents of the year. You make it sound like there are 8 NDSUs in the MVC. The fact is there is ONE GREAT TEAM, 3 good teams, a few average teams, and a few cupcakes.

QUAD. Take it to the bank.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Uni game scares me.....

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Why? There o-line is not exactly dominant. Read their forum. Pretty much a one man show. I like our chances especially with Coach K getting his first crack at Mr Personality

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strongman

We just defeated 2/4 of our toughest opponents of the year. You make it sound like there are 8 NDSUs in the MVC. The fact is there is ONE GREAT TEAM, 3 good teams, a few average teams, and a few cupcakes.

QUAD. Take it to the bank.

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Don't get me wrong. It is a near certainty that we'll make the playoffs. And when we make the playoffs, I wouldn't bet against NDSU in any match up in any venue.

But I think that the SIU, SDSU, and UNI games will all be hard fought and could go either way. I think that Misery State, both ISUs, and Youngstown can get up for a game against the Bison and can cause some trouble if we are not firing on all cylinders.

It's great that you're confident, but there is a lot of season left to play. I will need to see a few weeks of Valley play before I can reach the same level of confidence as I had last year.

In a 12 game season if a team were favored by 13 1/2 in every game the most likely result is a 10-2 season.

The ball isn't round.

The other guys are on scholarship too.

Any given Saturday.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

In a 12 game season if a team were favored by 13 1/2 in every game the most likely result is a 10-2 season.

The ball isn't round.

The other guys are on scholarship too.

Any given Saturday.

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What would the likely result be if the ball were round? :p

Quote:

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Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

What would the likely result be if the ball were round? :p

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344Johnson surrounded by a dozen of his closest friends in an otherwise empty soccer facility.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strongman

We just defeated 2/4 of our toughest opponents of the year. You make it sound like there are 8 NDSUs in the MVC. The fact is there is ONE GREAT TEAM, 3 good teams, a few average teams, and a few cupcakes.

QUAD. Take it to the bank.

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If that is how you see the MVFC then the Big Sky must have a lot of cupcakes!!

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Originally Posted by RedRiver

If that is how you see the MVFC then the Big Sky must have a lot of cupcakes!!

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Yeah, like the whole conference.

show us where we would rank in each conference (or is that fbs talk? :hide: )

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Originally Posted by El_Chapo

show us where we would rank in each conference (or is that fbs talk? :hide: )

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go back a page.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strongman

We just defeated 2/4 of our toughest opponents of the year. You make it sound like there are 8 NDSUs in the MVC. The fact is there is ONE GREAT TEAM, 3 good teams, a few average teams, and a few cupcakes.

QUAD. Take it to the bank.

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Lets not forget, our last two losses have been against conference teams who did not make the playoffs. That is the nature of our conference and it looks like there will be a bunch of tough teams again this season. . Cupcakes? I don't see no stinking cupcakes!

NDSU's 22-10 win vs. Montana did not cover the spread, and NDSU dropped for #37 to #43 in the sagarin ratings. This is the first time in a long time that NDSU did not cover the predicted spread, and lost some ground.

41 Duke A = 77.14 4 0 53.06( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.67 36 | 76.59 43 | 77.30 37
42 Virginia Tech A = 76.62 2 2 70.72( 30) 0 0 | 1 0 | 73.51 49 | 77.32 38 | 72.30 58
43 North Dakota State AA = 76.31 4 0 53.72( 183) 0 0 | 0 0 | 72.78 51 | 75.62 45 | 83.45 18
44 Miami-Florida A = 76.31 2 2 68.97( 45) 0 0 | 0 2 | 72.54 52 | 77.39 37 | 70.85 63
45 Syracuse A = 75.55 2 1 65.48( 78) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.28 38 | 74.92 47 | 75.28 46
46 Iowa A = 75.44 3 1 65.83( 75) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.82 73 | 77.01 40 | 70.98 62
47 Maryland A = 75.00 3 1 67.36( 63) 0 0 | 0 0 | 73.71 48 | 74.75 48 | 74.56 47
48 Central Florida(UCF) A = 74.81 1 2 71.95( 27) 0 0 | 0 1 | 76.83 35 | 74.13 49 | 73.72 52
49 Georgia Tech A = 74.53 4 0 62.23( 113) 0 0 | 0 0 | 74.36 45 | 73.45 53 | 79.59 29
50 East Carolina A = 74.33 3 1 71.99( 26) 0 0 | 0 1 | 72.15 54 | 73.94 50 | 76.20 42


The MVFC remains strong as the #15 ranked conference, still ahead of the MAC and Sunbelt.

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 87.59 87.23 ( 1) 7 87.32 ( 1)
2 BIG 12 (A) = 79.86 79.57 ( 3) 10 79.75 ( 2)
3 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 79.62 78.90 ( 4) 6 79.39 ( 4)
4 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 79.48 79.85 ( 2) 6 79.69 ( 3)
5 SEC-EAST (A) = 79.08 78.67 ( 5) 7 78.84 ( 5)
6 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 76.48 76.91 ( 6) 7 76.78 ( 6)
7 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 75.92 75.60 ( 7) 7 75.84 ( 7)
8 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 74.67 74.56 ( 8) 7 74.56 ( 8)
9 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 74.02 73.67 ( 9) 4 73.93 ( 9)
10 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 72.59 73.02 ( 10) 7 72.83 ( 10)
11 AMERICAN ATHLETIC (A) = 66.08 66.26 ( 11) 11 66.21 ( 11)
12 MWC-WEST (A) = 64.50 64.22 ( 13) 6 64.28 ( 13)
13 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 64.24 64.56 ( 12) 6 64.41 ( 12)
14 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 62.57 61.90 ( 14) 6 61.98 ( 14)
15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.51 61.74 ( 15) 10 61.62 ( 15)
16 MAC-WEST (A) = 60.92 60.49 ( 17) 6 60.76 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 60.66 60.76 ( 16) 7 60.75 ( 17)
18 SUN BELT (A) = 56.66 56.39 ( 19) 11 56.45 ( 19)
19 MAC-EAST (A) = 56.60 56.68 ( 18) 7 56.65 ( 18)
20 COLONIAL (AA)= 52.48 53.04 ( 20) 12 52.82 ( 20)
21 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 52.01 51.72 ( 22) 9 51.92 ( 22)
22 BIG SKY (AA)= 51.92 52.21 ( 21) 13 52.08 ( 21)
23 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 51.53 51.02 ( 23) 11 51.24 ( 23)
24 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 49.24 48.96 ( 24) 8 49.08 ( 24)
25 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.16 48.57 ( 25) 8 48.88 ( 25)
26 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 46.65 47.46 ( 26) 6 47.06 ( 26)
27 PATRIOT (AA)= 44.82 44.62 ( 27) 7 44.65 ( 27)
28 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 41.33 41.33 ( 28) 1 41.33 ( 28)
29 NORTHEAST (AA)= 39.11 39.16 ( 30) 7 39.16 ( 30)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 39.06 39.88 ( 29) 11 39.61 ( 29)
31 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 34.91 35.26 ( 31) 5 35.14 ( 31)
32 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 33.13 33.32 ( 32) 5 33.29 ( 32)
33 PIONEER (AA)= 30.58 31.24 ( 33) 11 30.92 ( 33)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

Don't get me wrong. It is a near certainty that we'll make the playoffs. And when we make the playoffs, I wouldn't bet against NDSU in any match up in any venue.

But I think that the SIU, SDSU, and UNI games will all be hard fought and could go either way. I think that Misery State, both ISUs, and Youngstown can get up for a game against the Bison and can cause some trouble if we are not firing on all cylinders.

It's great that you're confident, but there is a lot of season left to play. I will need to see a few weeks of Valley play before I can reach the same level of confidence as I had last year.

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IT IS A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY that NDSU will make the playoffs EVERY SINGLE year in the indefinite future until we move up. 24/126 teams make the playoffs. And about 90 of those teams have no shot of ever winning the title because of lack of resources or recruiting. Let's be honest here. NDSU is a Goliath at this level.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by el_chapo

show us where we would rank in each conference (or is that fbs talk? :hide: )

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aac 2
acc 6
b1g 6
b12 8
cusa 1
mac 1
mwc 2
p12 10
sec 13
sbc 1
Indy 3

NDSU would be ranked 4th vs. all the teams in non-P5 conferences, behind BYU, Boise, Cincinnati.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strongman

IT IS A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY that NDSU will make the playoffs EVERY SINGLE year in the indefinite future until we move up. 24/126 teams make the playoffs. And about 90 of those teams have no shot of ever winning the title because of lack of resources or recruiting. Let's be honest here. NDSU is a Goliath at this level.

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Near certainty....? Lol.

Herd, I don't think we covered the spread against Weber St. Im not sure what it was but my guess is it was twice what we won by!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Herd

NDSU's 22-10 win vs. Montana did not cover the spread, and NDSU dropped for #37 to #43 in the sagarin ratings. This is the first time in a long time that NDSU did not cover the predicted spread, and lost some ground.

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The Weber St. projection was 28 1/2 and the final margin was only 17.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by semobison

Herd, I don't think we covered the spread against Weber St. Im not sure what it was but my guess is it was twice what we won by!

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True about Weber, but our sagarin did not drop after that game. The Montana game was the first drop in awhile. Maybe due to it being a road game at Weber, that had less impact. Not sure.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Herd

True about Weber, but our sagarin did not drop after that game. The Montana game was the first drop in awhile. Maybe due to it being a road game at Weber, that had less impact. Not sure.

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I think the drop this week had less to do with not covering the prediction as it did a combination of other teams moving past us plus replacing last year's data with this year's. (data becoming better connected) I think we've been riding last year's wave for these first few weeks. Last year's KState win plus the overall success of FCS vs. FBS last year propelled us far higher than usual for the top FCS team. The failure of FCS vs. FBS this year I think is hurting our subdivision as a whole. But this is all guesswork as we don't know exactly how Sagarin works.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RedRiver

If that is how you see the MVFC then the Big Sky must have a lot of cupcakes!!

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So... I'm guessing that the term of art to express the collective form of "cupcake" should then be "tubcake". If one were to use this word in a sentence, he would say, "The Big Sky Conference is a tubcake."

Bison move up to 42 this week from 43 last week....although 19 in ELO.

Its Hammer time! (I actually look forward to Hammer and Audit posting each Sunday!)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Its Hammer time! (I actually look forward to Hammer and Audit posting each Sunday!)

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Thanks for the reminder. Completely forgot about it this morning(darn bye week). Be back in 15.

OVC the big loser, Southland the big winner. They swap spots in the conference rankings. Composition of the top-25 virtually unchanged(EIU out, UCA in). Top-10 virtually unchanged as well. In FBS comparisons, NDSU is back on top of all G5 conferences. The MVFC also took back the #3 ranking among non-P5 conferences. 3 of the top-5 FCS schools come from the MVFC, 7 of the top-16, 9 in the top-29, and all are in the top-48. Data must be well-connected or very close to it; very little movement. UNI game getting closer(even with home field advantage dropping half a point).


Sagarin's Week 6 Predictions

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 42        North Dakota State        75.93                       
 67        Iowa State                70.19      +2.27    +20.00        +17.73
200        Weber State                44.19    +28.27    +17.00        -11.27
236        Incarnate Word                33.71    +45.69    +58.00        +12.31
104        Montana                        61.82    +17.58    +12.00        -5.58
171        Western Illinois        50.12    +22.34               
106        Southern Illinois        61.77    +17.63               
142        Indiana State                55.12    +24.28               
145        South Dakota                54.90    +17.56               
 69        South Dakota State        69.68      +9.72               
 80        Northern Iowa                67.23      +5.23               
102        Missouri State                62.09    +10.37               
111        Youngstown State        60.80    +18.60               
                                       
110        Illinois State                60.98                       
                                                Total Diff:        +13.19
        Home Field                3.47

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Sagarin FCS Top-25

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1  42  North Dakota State
 2  69  South Dakota State
 3  74  Villanova
 4  77  Eastern Washington
 5  80  Northern Iowa
 6  85  Jacksonville State
 7  96  Coastal Carolina
 8  98  New Hampshire
 9  99  McNeese State
10  102  Missouri State
11  103  Chattanooga
12  104  Montana
13  105  SE Louisiana
14  106  Southern Illinois
15  110  Illinois State
16  111  Youngstown State
17  114  Sam Houston State
18  122  Richmond
19  123  Eastern Kentucky
20  124  Montana State
21  129  William & Mary
22  131  Harvard
23  138  Central Arkansas
24  139  Cal Poly
25  141  Princeton

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Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

Code:

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1.  MVFC        61.59
2.  Colonial        52.00
3.  Southland        51.16
4.  Big Sky        51.08
5.  Ohio Valley 50.64

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FBS Comparisons

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#1  in the MVFC, AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#6  in the ACC
#7  in the Big Ten
#8  in the Big 12
#10 in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC

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Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

Code:

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1.  AAC                66.05
2.  MWC                64.36
3.  MVFC        61.59
4.  C-USA        61.45
5.  MAC                58.70
6.  SBC                55.93
7.  CAA                52.00
8.  SLC        51.16
9.  BSC                51.08
10. OVC        50.64

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MVFC looks tough with 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 rankings among FCS schools.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strongman

Let's be honest here. NDSU is a Goliath at this level.

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Um....goliath lost dude.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Thundering Herd

Um....goliath lost dude.

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To be fair Goliath did win several times and years before he lost... :biggrin:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 1998braves64

To be fair Goliath did win several times and years before he lost... :biggrin:

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Yeah, he had quite an undefeated streak, didn't he? All streaks have to end sometime, I suppose.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Thundering Herd

Um....goliath lost dude.

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Only once though, only once. And David cheated by using a weapon

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.47 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Western Illinois 96.7% (+0.2% from last week)
Southern Illinois 90.3% (-0.7%)
Indiana State 96.3% (-1.0%)
South Dakota 90.2% (-0.4%)
South Dakota State 76.4% (-2.9%)
Northern Iowa 65.1% (-1.4%)
Missouri State 77.9% (+0.4%)
Youngstown State 91.5% (-1.1%)

12-0 26.9% (-2.4% from last week)
11-1 40.6% (-0.5%)
10-2 24.0% (+1.6%)
9-3 7.2% (+1.0%)
8-4 1.2% (+0.2%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.006%
5-7 0.0002%
4-8 0.000002%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.[/QUOTE]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SamsRams

Only once though, only once. And David cheated by using a weapon

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That story is told once in the bible (right?), so yes, goliath loses only one time. We are modern day Davids that travel around and tell similar versions of that story over and over. Each goliath we play may have never lost to a david, or shouldn't either in theory, until we show up. David used a weapon, but thats ok. We do too, several in fact. One: our coaches. Second weapon: players guts, intelligence and heart. Lastly, and maybe the most important: his name is Mr. Kramer!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Thundering Herd

That story is told once in the bible (right?), so yes, goliath loses only one time. We are modern day Davids that travel around and tell similar versions of that story over and over. Each goliath we play may have never lost to a david, or shouldn't either in theory, until we show up. David used a weapon, but thats ok. We do too, several in fact. One: our coaches. Second weapon: players guts, intelligence and heart. Lastly, and maybe the most important: his name is Mr. Kramer!!!

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I wonder if we finish them off with their own weapon like David did? We use their coaches against them? Or in SDSU's case we force them to use Zenner?

Bison more than 21 pt favorites over WIU

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Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

Bison more than 21 pt favorites over WIU

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Actually 22.34 point favorites. It's right there in my first table. It's the prediction column and it has the current home field advantage built in.

+22.34 vs. WIU
+17.63 vs. SIU
+24.28 vs. ISUb
+17.56 vs. USD
+9.72 vs. SDSU
+5.23 vs. UNI
+10.37 vs. MSU
+18.60 vs. YSU

Just thought it was worth reiterating. 3 TDs+ is pretty steep

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Thundering Herd

Um....goliath lost dude.

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That story is just one episode (granted its probably the central one) in the larger struggle between Saul and David for who was going to be the head of state. Saul eventually fell on his own sword after suffering a terrible military defeat and David ascended to the throne. Thankfully, NDSU football's last leadership transition wasn't quite so dramatic.