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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
WhoRepsTheLurker
It obviously matters. Glad you bought tickets
If people are gong to dis on the school and program for not moving up, its fair to ask how much they support the program
Or we could just assume that most fans here want what they feel is best for “the program” and do what they can within their means to support it.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
heffray
Wait, what?! When did this happen?
https://www.inforum.com/sports/bison...ctor-denies-it
NDSU admin on the record said that it didn't, but in interviews has also clearly stated we have NO interest there.
On the flip side, the schools CUSA would call up next are well known and published, its the WAC and ASun schools. They aren't trying to expand at the moment, it would reduce their per school revenues even more.
It's logical neither party has much interest, there's just not enough revenue there to cover the travel. Anyone paying attention knows CUSA is looking to minimize travel and expenses and stay in the Southeast. We would make less than half of our current media deal, it would be a pay cut for NDSU.
People banging this drum just can't accept that travel costs do matter to the bottom G5.
The level of competition would also be worse than MVFC, a quick look at Sagarin shows this.
Compared to CUSA, MAC would be a homerun.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
BigHorns
https://www.inforum.com/sports/bison...ctor-denies-it
NDSU admin on the record said that it didn't, but in interviews has also clearly stated we have NO interest there.
On the flip side, the schools CUSA would call up next are well known and published, its the WAC and ASun schools. They aren't trying to expand at the moment, it would reduce their per school revenues even more.
It's logical neither party has much interest, there's just not enough revenue there to cover the travel. Anyone paying attention knows CUSA is looking to minimize travel and expenses and stay in the Southeast. We would make less than half of our current media deal, it would be a pay cut for NDSU.
People banging this drum just can't accept that travel costs do matter to the bottom G5.
The level of competition would also be worse than MVFC, a quick look at Sagarin shows this.
Compared to CUSA, MAC would be a homerun.
The MAC will never ever offer us unless shit really falls apart. It is a bus league thru and thru with other bus-able options should they need them.
Hell, I’m just happy our administration finally isnt afraid of admitting that they’re looking at FBS and would be interested if the offer came. Hope they didn’t lose too much sleep over giving the fanbase an ounce of hope.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
Oh, all the money including playoff credits are split between the Pac 4. Thats 105 million per team. If anyone thinks they will bail to the mountain west to earn 4 million per year, they are nuts. They will simply add 2 more teams (to get a waiver) from any conference. They will have an easy path to the CFP, unlike a G5.
Them when the MW TV deal is done in 2025, they will poach them with no exit fee.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
Oh, all the money including playoff credits are split between the Pac 4. Thats 105 million per team. If anyone thinks they will bail to the mountain west to earn 4 million per year, they are nuts. They will simply add 2 more teams (to get a waiver) from any conference. They will have an easy path to the CFP, unlike a G5.
Them when the MW TV deal is done in 2025, they will poach them with no exit fee.
How sure are you that the winner of a six team PAC would be one of the 6 highest ranked conference champions?
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
Oh, all the money including playoff credits are split between the Pac 4. Thats 105 million per team. If anyone thinks they will bail to the mountain west to earn 4 million per year, they are nuts. They will simply add 2 more teams (to get a waiver) from any conference. They will have an easy path to the CFP, unlike a G5.
Them when the MW TV deal is done in 2025, they will poach them with no exit fee.
This is entirely possible.
Something to remember is that about a week ago there was talk of PAC expansion and all being well.
Friday morning, reputable reporters were saying the PAC was sticking together and signing the apple deal
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/statu...865481216?s=20
By that evening the SHTF, and it was all falling apart.
The PAC-4 clearly got caught with their pants down when everyone else ran for the exits.
It may take them a few weeks to figure things out, but these are still schools with more power and prestige than anyone in the G5.
We will see if they have the guts and pride to rebuild it, or just take the first exit they find too.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
bisonaudit
How sure are you that the winner of a six team PAC would be one of the 6 highest ranked conference champions?
Ideally, they would add 4 top notch G5, and then figure things out from there.
It should be #5 if they can poach the top G5 schools from AAC and MWC.
They would have to screw it up pretty bad to drop below #6.
If the best targets say no, that would change the picture.
But the Pac-4 would just go Indy before they add someone like Kennesaw or FIU.
Maybe they wouldn't have Notre Dame status, but they would still get respect.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
heffray
Wait, what?! When did this happen?
It didn't really. When CUSA was on the edge of imploding, they asked a bunch of schools(20+?) if they were interested. Reading between the lines, NDSU might have expressed interest in football-only membership, but gave a pretty hard pass on being a full member.
But it needs a little more context. It was pretty clear at the time that CUSA was not offering membership to those they asked, they were just gauging interest. They were trying to put together a list to see what combos might work. They had a short list of real contenders they wanted, but were also looking at what other schools around each of those contenders might also come along if asked. In our case, the critical member was Missouri State. If the Bears had been interested, then CUSA would have looked north to SDSU and NDSU to see if they wanted to form a new geographic wing to the conference. But MSU wasn't interested, so it didn't matter what NDSU answered; there wasn't going to be an invite. It's even possible NDSU admin knew MSU's position before they even said anything to CUSA.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
Hammersmith
It didn't really. When CUSA was on the edge of imploding, they asked a bunch of schools(20+?) if they were interested. Reading between the lines, NDSU might have expressed interest in football-only membership, but gave a pretty hard pass on being a full member.
But it needs a little more context. It was pretty clear at the time that CUSA was not offering membership to those they asked, they were just gauging interest. They were trying to put together a list to see what combos might work. They had a short list of real contenders they wanted, but were also looking at what other schools around each of those contenders might also come along if asked. In our case, the critical member was Missouri State. If the Bears had been interested, then CUSA would have looked north to SDSU and NDSU to see if they wanted to form a new geographic wing to the conference. But MSU wasn't interested, so it didn't matter what NDSU answered; there wasn't going to be an invite. It's even possible NDSU admin knew MSU's position before they even said anything to CUSA.
Sorry but no. The context you provide is interesting supposition, but not necessary for understanding the bottom line. Ndsu was clear they were not interested in CUSA. It was reported that NDSU told CUSA that. I complained about our short-sightedness at the time. Talk of FBS lifeboats and all that. People here on the board rejoiced as you all wanted no part of CUSA. “MVFC is better.” “Travel would suck.” “No media deal in place” Fine, whatever. But you can’t now downplay that there was an opportunity. Missouri State had nothing to do with it. CUSA was desperate. No one seriously doubts NDSU could have gone to CUSA if they had wanted to.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
Oh, all the money including playoff credits are split between the Pac 4. Thats 105 million per team. If anyone thinks they will bail to the mountain west to earn 4 million per year, they are nuts. They will simply add 2 more teams (to get a waiver) from any conference. They will have an easy path to the CFP, unlike a G5.
Them when the MW TV deal is done in 2025, they will poach them with no exit fee.
Wait, where is this $105M x 4 coming from?
FBS conference needs 8 full members, not 6 like FCS.
The MWC exit fees are in the bylaws, not a media deal GOR. The only way to avoid exit fees is getting enough votes to dissolve the conference, which probably won't happen.
Conferences are hard to kill but the PAC seems to have found a way.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
Possible (rumored) PAC12 numbers
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Dave “Softy” Mahler
@Softykjr
One thing I just learned per source about Pac 12 media rights offer:
There was NEVER an offer that included ANY linear TV options.
$23m annually from Apple with an opt out after two years was the ONLY option presented to the executive committee.
Pac 12 was paying out $27m this year. Would have been a $4m loss plus the loss of linear TV.
Non starter that would never be accepted
5:57 PM · Aug 5, 2023
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
Possible (rumored) Washington Big10 numbers
Quote:
Dave “Softy” Mahler
@Softykjr
Per source, UW will be accepting a reduced share for the next 6 years form the Big Ten that will average roughly 32.5 million a year.
The real windfall will come when the new Big Ten media deal is agreed to. Could be for more than 2.5-3x what UW will make in first 6 years.
UW also will have access to non media rights revenue streams(CFP revenue, NCAA tournament revenue) that could add $10+ million per year.
6:02 PM · Aug 5, 2023
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
bruinbison
Possible (rumored) Washington Big10 numbers
3x comment would imply a $1.8 billion annual media deal for the conference. The current deal is like $1.1 billion through 2030.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
taper
Wait, where is this $105M x 4 coming from?
FBS conference needs 8 full members, not 6 like FCS.
The MWC exit fees are in the bylaws, not a media deal GOR. The only way to avoid exit fees is getting enough votes to dissolve the conference, which probably won't happen.
Conferences are hard to kill but the PAC seems to have found a way.
The whole conference gets the last payment for the Pac 12 Networks. Instead of splitting it 12 ways, it's split 4 ways
Same is true of the payments from the NCAA Tournament credits and the bump in College Football Playoff money for being in an autonomous conference
.
There is still some money out there for these 4 schools. Way more than the MW TV deal that pays 4 million a year and could shrink more if split amongst 4 more teams
I dont believe the PAC 12 wants the whole MWC for all sports. They would be better off poaching 4 teams nationwide. Whether it's a Memphis, UTEP or pretty much anyone
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
The whole conference gets the last payment for the Pac 12 Networks. Instead of splitting it 12 ways, it's split 4 ways
Same is true of the payments from the NCAA Tournament credits and the bump in College Football Playoff money for being in an autonomous conference
.
There is still some money out there for these 4 schools. Way more than the MW TV deal that pays 4 million a year and could shrink more if split amongst 4 more teams
I dont believe the PAC 12 wants the whole MWC for all sports
The PAC media ends July 1, 2024. All 12 members are playing the 2023/4 season and receiving their share. BB credits are nice but anyone joining is leaving behind credits too so that's a wash. I strongly suspect the CFP revamps who gets paid what since the PAC is now a power conference in name only. Don't forget they owe Comcast somewhere between $50-70M.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
taper
The PAC media ends July 1, 2024. All 12 members are playing the 2023/4 season and receiving their share. BB credits are nice but anyone joining is leaving behind credits too so that's a wash. I strongly suspect the CFP revamps who gets paid what since the PAC is now a power conference in name only. Don't forget they owe Comcast somewhere between $50-70M.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/story...ditional-money
18 million per year now split between 4 schools. Thats more than the MW gets for their whole TV deal.
Thats just for basketball
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
taper
Conferences are hard to kill but the PAC seems to have found a way.
The lack of an exit fee was the undoing.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
Except they won't be split 4 ways. If they don't return to at least 8 they're no longer a conference and the credits go to the schools that earned them. If they want to get 8 there's no way anybody is going to pay $20-34M in exit fees and not get a share. The MWC and AAC have a nice pile of credits too they'd be leaving behind.
PAC finances are a mess.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
So $4.5M per school.
I wonder if that covers the interest on Cal's FB renovations annual mortgage payment ($18M).
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
taper
PAC finances are a mess.
... and are making the PAC the first zombie conference.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
The_Sicatoka
Well... if the MW pays 4 million per school and its further dilluted... beggers cant be choosers.
Also the 50 million the conference owes Comcast will be taken from the $420 million revenue due to the conference this year. That leaves 370 million split amongst 4 schools. Almost 100 milliom each
They made their own mess. Unless the Big 10 or 12 save them, which is unlikely. They may need to set a budget amd make that money go far
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
Well... if the MW pays 4 million per school and its further dilluted... beggers cant be choosers.
Also the 50 million the conference owes Comcast will be taken from the $420 million revenue due to the conference this year. That leaves 370 million split amongst 4 schools. Almost 100 milliom each
What don't you understand about this? The last year of payments is split 12 ways, not 4.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
Reading some speculation that some in the MWC might team up to get enough votes to dissolve or waive the exit fees....then leave to the PAC. This could leave Nevada and a few others stuck alone.
No idea if this is likely, but the XDSUs and Montana Schools could fit nicely with Wyoming, Nevada, and a couple more.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
The_Sicatoka
The lack of an exit fee was the undoing.
It was the reason behind the schools leaving for sure. But I don't think it kills the conference. Maybe weakens it into a G5 but their is still too much money on the table by G5 standards. They get 18 millon a year in basketball credits split between the remaining teams. That itself will incentivse them to keep the conference going until that falls off the books. They will get that money after the MW deal expires. To a Conference USA school who only gets 750k a year from their TV deal, I guarantee the PAC 4 can do better if they can get up to 8.
Also they should be able to at the very least secure a mediocre TV deal on par with the MW if they can add 4 teams.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
Gully
Reading some speculation that some in the MWC might team up to get enough votes to dissolve or waive the exit fees....then leave to the PAC. This could leave Nevada and a few others stuck alone.
No idea if this is likely, but the XDSUs and Montana Schools could fit nicely with Wyoming, Nevada, and a couple more.
I'd take that in a heartbeat.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
Big Bird
I'd take that in a heartbeat.
Me too, but it could be a long shot, I have no idea how the MW schools look at things, but I would think a number of them would want to be in a PAC with OSU and WSU.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
Gully
Reading some speculation that some in the MWC might team up to get enough votes to dissolve or waive the exit fees....then leave to the PAC. This could leave Nevada and a few others stuck alone.
MWC by-laws only require simple majority vote to eliminate buy-outs or dissolve.
If motion on either of those came to vote, and I were Wyo or UNM, I'd be worried.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
The_Sicatoka
MWC by-laws only require simple majority vote to eliminate buy-outs or dissolve.
If motion on either of those came to vote, and I were Wyo or UNM, I'd be worried.
Interesting, I agree with you. I wasn't sure it only required simple majority. That could increase chances of something still happening here that would open a move for NDSU.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
Seems like all the activity on Friday could still either be a very good thing or a very bad thing for the MWC. In any case, if a spot opens up for NDSU in the MWC it seems very likely that the conference will look completely different than it does today. Although that's probably an ideal scenario for NDSU IMO because it means potential for multiple regional partners to make the move with them which will be crucial for the non-revenue sports.
SDSU, Montana, Montana St, Idaho, and Missouri St would all be viable FBS candidates IMO - one or all of those first 3 going with NDSU would be as good of an opportunity as they could hope for but there would be plenty of scenarios for MWC east and northward expansion should the PAC pull out the undertaker gif and figure out a way to raid the MWC.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
taper
What don't you understand about this? The last year of payments is split 12 ways, not 4.
I thought the Pac 12 was withholding payments for the 2023-2024 season? If not, nothing really changes other than Cal will be more fucked
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
Gully
Interesting, I agree with you. I wasn't sure it only required simple majority. That could increase chances of something still happening here that would open a move for NDSU.
I've seen both 50% and 75% claimed as the requirement.
If I were Wyo I'd be talking with USU and UNM (and SJSU?) to make sure they understand how they could be hung out and to get a voting bloc together.
The MWC has "history":
https://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo...ce/1457199002/
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
The_Sicatoka
I've seen both 50% and 75% claimed as the requirement.
If I were Wyo I'd be talking with USU and UNM (and SJSU?) to make sure they understand how they could be hung out and to get a voting bloc together.
The MWC has "history":
https://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo...ce/1457199002/
Interesting. I would imagine the Pac 4 wants nothing to do with markets like Laramie Wyoming and Logan Utah.
It will want to cherry pick the teams with the most value. Air Force, Colorado State, Boise and San Diego State
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
This is so hard to predict. Standord, Cal, Washington State and Oregon State have more drawing power for a TV contraxt than the entire Mountain West Combined. Unlike the Mountain West, who has a crappy TV deal (4 million pet school average) to split among 4 more teams, the 4 Pac 12 teams can negotiate a better deal if they poach Boise, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno. Then they are up to 8 teams. That would leave the Mountain West with 7
But you have the exit fees. Maybe the PAC 12 has some money in reserve to help pay them?
The Mountain West TV deal goes through 2025-2026. Can the renegotiate? Then again the PAC 12 has no deal which is good and bad. But poaching their remaining 4 schools has no exit fee
But I can see a short term scheduling arrangement for sure.
Then again, I dont believe the Big 10 is done with 4 west coast schools. It just doesnt make sense
The PAC has no money especially to pay 4 MWC exit fees. They have to take the entire MWC to avoid the exit fees.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
OrygunBison
It wasn't too long ago that the big scuttlebutt was that Texas and Oklahoma were heading to the PAC12 and that it'd be the end of the Big12.
I wonder how long it will take the B1G to kick out Rutgers or the SEC to kick out Vandy, etc.
Will the Big12 ultimately survive or are they next in about 5 years?
It is weird to witness all of this happening. College sports and the student athlete won't be better off for these moves. The divide will get bigger.
Or the a big 12 to kick out West Virginia. Lots of schools in the P4 are at the same level as Washington st and Oregon st. They got lucky to be on the inside when all this poaching started.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
The_Sicatoka
How are the Cali schools going to afford the MWC buy-out and no PAC media deal to go to?
The way out of the MWC is getting a majority to either (a) eliminate buy-out, or (b) close up shop. Otherwise it's a $17-$34M poison pill to prevent defections.
By taking the top half of the MWC. They would have to vote to remove the exit fees then leave. That’s the only way the PAC steals from the MWC without taking all of them.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
B.Schlossman Fan Club
By taking the top half of the MWC. They would have to vote to remove the exit fees then leave. That’s the only way the PAC steals from the MWC without taking all of them.
That would also result in a very interesting lawsuit. Let's say 8 schools want to leave and avoid the $34M exit. $272M is worth suing over collusion. Only guarantee in that suit is that all the lawyers get paid.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
HerdBot
Interesting. I would imagine the Pac 4 wants nothing to do with markets like Laramie Wyoming and Logan Utah.
It will want to cherry pick the teams with the most value. Air Force, Colorado State, Boise and San Diego State
This is what happens if SDSU puts together enough teams to join them in leaving the conference. Nothing against the rules to vote out the exit fees. Question is do they take the CA and NV schools? I would not take HI either if I was the PAC. This leaves a huge hole for the Big Sky and NDSU!
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
Professor Chaos
Seems like all the activity on Friday could still either be a very good thing or a very bad thing for the MWC. In any case, if a spot opens up for NDSU in the MWC it seems very likely that the conference will look completely different than it does today. Although that's probably an ideal scenario for NDSU IMO because it means potential for multiple regional partners to make the move with them which will be crucial for the non-revenue sports.
SDSU, Montana, Montana St, Idaho, and Missouri St would all be viable FBS candidates IMO - one or all of those first 3 going with NDSU would be as good of an opportunity as they could hope for but there would be plenty of scenarios for MWC east and northward expansion should the PAC pull out the undertaker gif and figure out a way to raid the MWC.
Leave Mo St and SDSU off the list, they have shown the commitment to afford it. Even the Montanas have a Long way to go. Idaho and NDSU are they only schools ready.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
taper
That would also result in a very interesting lawsuit. Let's say 8 schools want to leave and avoid the $34M exit. $272M is worth suing over collusion. Only guarantee in that suit is that all the lawyers get paid.
A fraud by collusion against the defectors would be lucrative for the others.
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Re: A new and better FBS thread
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Originally Posted by
B.Schlossman Fan Club
Idaho and NDSU are they only schools ready.
Based on what criteria? Not sure about Idaho, but NDSU doesn't currently meet the new FBS requirements. Not undoable but looking at the math and needing to add $1 million in student aid when you're already fully funded looks like another women's sport likely needs to be added somewhere.