This is a NDSU message board since you apparently are lost in more ways than one. I know this Bison team has some issues, but the bunnies are far from world beaters.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanDakotaState
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This is a NDSU message board since you apparently are lost in more ways than one. I know this Bison team has some issues, but the bunnies are far from world beaters.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanDakotaState
Will the same refs be playing?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanDakotaState
God I can't wait till next week.Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
Honestly... Most graduates of FCS schools don't particularly care about their teams do they?Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
Probably follow the nearby FBS schools.
Just keep drinking the blue and yellow koolaid. I am sure you are excited to see the indoor plumbing in the new part of the stadium.Quote:
Originally Posted by Thumper 76
One of the things I appreciate most about this thread is how rarely it drifts and includes smack. Jus' sayin'.
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You have no idea! I personally was hoping for indoor portapotties but hey beggars can't be choosers! Just remember though hoss, we aren't the team with one in the L column to a team that hasn't won since coming into this game. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
I still may piss off the back of the bleachers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Thumper 76
Help a guy out with a couple of tickets Thumper 76.Quote:
Originally Posted by Thumper 76
Lots' of good discussion about the sagarin ratings. Well done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Too bad there are no sdsu threads to write to. If only there was a thread titled something like "upcoming game: @sdsu".
Most every thread at Bisonville is subject to thread drift. So why would you think this one would be different? At least the discussion about SDSU was somewhat related to the fact they just edged NDSU out for the top FCS Sagarin rating. Many threads get derailed and filled with bathroom humor. Just sayin.
Hell man I don't have any for myself. Oh and for the people mad about thread drift. Sagarin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Meaty
Are you trying to start a scrabble game?Quote:
Originally Posted by Thumper 76
Attachment 6186Quote:
Originally Posted by KilldeerBison
Let's do this
This one rarely does, though. Which is one reason I appreciate it more than others. But I realize I'm just one guy, and I may be in the minority.Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
Penn over 'Nova last night. If I'm interpreting this correctly, Penn beat their expectation by 40+ points.
This topic has been discussed before, and I don't think you are in the minority.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
NDSU back in the top FCS slot. SDSU still favored this weekend.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 5 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
71 North Dakota State 68.69
133 Montana 54.41 +10.91 -3.00 -13.91
155 Weber State 49.67 +22.39 +27.00 +4.61
172 North Dakota 44.94 +27.12 +25.00 -2.12
77 South Dakota State 66.90 -1.58
95 Northern Iowa 62.68 +9.38
125 South Dakota 55.88 +16.18
151 Indiana State 50.78 +14.54
104 Southern Illinois 60.82 +4.50
136 Western Illinois 53.94 +18.12
94 Youngstown State 62.83 +2.49
201 Missouri State 38.77 +33.29
84 Illinois State 64.89
Total Diff: -11.42
Home Field 3.37
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 71 68.69 North Dakota State
2 77 66.90 South Dakota State
3 82 65.30 Jacksonville State
4 84 64.89 Illinois State
5 94 62.83 Youngstown State
6 95 62.68 Northern Iowa
7 96 62.58 Chattanooga
8 98 62.33 James Madison
9 99 61.59 William & Mary
10 103 61.23 Coastal Carolina
11 104 60.82 Southern Illinois
12 111 60.02 Eastern Washington
13 115 59.57 Sam Houston State
14 121 58.61 Montana State
15 123 57.27 Harvard
16 125 55.88 South Dakota
17 126 55.84 McNeese State
18 128 55.01 Portland State
19 130 54.92 Dartmouth
20 131 54.70 Samford
21 133 54.41 Montana
22 134 54.23 Liberty
23 135 54.00 SE Louisiana
24 136 53.94 Western Illinois
25 137 53.90 Wofford
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.94 10
2 SEC 78.93 14
3 ACC 77.25 13
4 BIG TEN 75.82 11
5 PAC-12 75.68 11
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.48 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.79 5
8 MWC 62.70 4
9 MAC 60.68 4
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 59.72 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 58.30 4
12 SUN BELT 55.98 2
13 BIG SKY 48.32 1
14 COLONIAL 48.27 1
15 SOUTHERN 46.04 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 45.44 1
17 SOUTHLAND 43.37 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 42.89 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.73 1
20 PATRIOT 35.88 1
21 NORTHEAST 35.79 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.81 1
23 SWAC 28.74 1
24 PIONEER 23.98 1
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1 9.9%.. .-0.4% from last week
9-2.. 29.2%. -0.8%
8-3.. 33.8% +0.1%
7-4.. 19.7% +0.7%
6-5.... 6.2% +0.4%
5-6.... 1.0% +0.1%
4-7.... 0.1%
3-8.... 0.003%
2-9.... 0.00002%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@SDSU. 53.0%.. 1.0 +5.0%. +1.5 change from last week
v.UNI.... 75.6%.. 9.5 +3.9%. +1.5
v.USD... 88.4% 16.0 +0.2%... 0.0
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.5. -0.3%... 0.0
@S Ill.. 63.1%.. 4.5 -10.6%. -4.0
v.W Ill... 90.9% 18.0 +2.1% +1.5
@YSU... 57.3%.. 2.5. -2.7%. -1.0
v.Mo St. 99.3% 33.5 +0.2% +1.0
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--. @SDSU 53.0%.. 1.0
--. @YSU.. 57.3%.. 2.5
+1 @S Ill. 63.1%.. 4.5
-1. v.UNI... 75.6%. 9.5
--. @Ind St 85.9% 14.5
--. v.USD.. 88.4% 16.0
--. v.W Ill.. 90.9% 18.0
--. v.Mo St. 99.3% 33.5
Attachment 6192Attachment 6193
Bunnies are the game of the week. Sagarin makes NDSU a 1 point road favorite (only because we're coming off the bye and they aren't).
UNI @ Illinois State has big implications as well. Ill St is a 5.5 point favorite.
I watched the Jacksonville game on Saturday. I am shocked they are polled so high. The valley would break them.
Jacksonville or Jacksonville State?Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonHorns
Jacksonvills State and they won by a touchdown. I would feel way better about Saturdays game if we were playing them. Still the bunnies are going down.
Down year for the mvfc...only better than 2 FBS conferences. :)
When you win by a margin three TDs greater than predicted, you go up a bit. NDSU jumps 12 spots to #59. Eight Valley teams in the top-25, six in the top-11, and all four top spots. The Valley is still in spitting distance of the MWC and MAC. Big Sky and CAA still fighting for the #2 FCS conference. On paper, the YSU game is almost a toss-up.
Sag doesn't post this info anymore, but I think we're very close to the point of only using data from the 2015 season.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 6 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
59 North Dakota State 72.14
123 Montana 56.16 +13.27 -3.00 -16.27
176 Weber State 44.10 +30.75 +27.00 -3.75
166 North Dakota 46.99 +27.86 +25.00 -2.86
85 South Dakota State 64.10 +5.33 +21.00 +15.67
98 Northern Iowa 62.05 +12.80
153 South Dakota 51.17 +23.68
138 Indiana State 53.45 +15.98
108 Southern Illinois 60.27 +9.16
128 Western Illinois 55.47 +19.38
75 Youngstown State 67.64 +1.79
210 Missouri State 35.61 +39.24
78 Illinois State 66.53
Total Diff: -7.21
Home Field 2.71
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 59 72.14 North Dakota State
2 75 67.64 Youngstown State
3 78 66.53 Illinois State
4 85 64.10 South Dakota State
5 94 63.06 Coastal Carolina
6 96 62.55 Jacksonville State
7 98 62.05 Northern Iowa
8 99 61.88 Chattanooga
9 102 61.51 James Madison
10 107 60.31 Harvard
11 108 60.27 Southern Illinois
12 112 58.59 Eastern Washington
13 114 58.12 William & Mary
14 115 57.71 Sam Houston State
15 119 56.60 Southern Utah
16 120 56.59 McNeese State
17 123 56.16 Montana
18 124 56.05 Dartmouth
19 128 55.47 Western Illinois
20 132 55.04 Montana State
21 133 54.98 Samford
22 137 53.62 Liberty
23 138 53.45 Indiana State
24 139 53.43 Cal Poly-SLO
25 140 53.32 Villanova
Bonus: MVFC FCS rankings:Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.52 9
2 SEC 78.84 13
3 ACC 77.25 11
4 BIG TEN 75.67 10
5 PAC-12 75.55 10
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 75.04 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.72 5
8 MWC 61.79 2
9 MAC 60.82 2
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 59.84 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.23 3
12 SUN BELT 55.01 1
13 BIG SKY 48.12 1
14 COLONIAL 48.02 1
15 SOUTHERN 45.83 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 45.51 1
17 SOUTHLAND 43.03 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 42.92 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.88 1
20 PATRIOT 36.04 1
21 NORTHEAST 36.01 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.20 1
23 SWAC 27.64 1
24 PIONEER 24.34 1
1. NDSU
2. YSU
3. ISUr
4. SDSU
7. UNI
11.SIU
19. WIU
23. ISUb
35. USD
82. MSU
In years past I believe it was week 5 or 6 where it became well connected. It's good to see us back up in the 50's.
Looking forward to Audit's update....since SDSU was our least likely game to win based on Sagarin, beating them handily should really increase our percentage chances of 8-3 or better because we now have a tough game in the rear view mirror (with a win) and our score went up following such a dominating performance. I'm hoping to see a 90%+ chance of 8-3 or better.
Bitch slap UNI and were golden.
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1 26.8% +16.8% from last week
9-2.. 43.1% +13.9%
8-3.. 23.5%. -10.3%
7-4... 5.8%. -13.9%
6-5... 0.7%... -5.5%
5-6... 0.04%
4-7... 0.001%
3-8... 0.000001%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.UNI... 82.8% 13.0. +7.2% +3.5 change from last week
v.USD.. 95.9% 23.5. +7.5% +7.5
@Ind St 88.1% 16.0. +2.2% +1.5
@S Ill... 75.1%. 9.0 +12.0% +4.5
v.W Ill.. 92.3% 19.5. +1.4% +1.5
@YSU... 55.3%. 2.0... -2.0% -0.5
v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0.. +0.5% +5.5
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--.. @YSU... 55.3%. 2.0
--.. @S Ill... 75.1%. 9.0
--.. v.UNI... 82.8% 13.0
--.. @Ind St 88.1% 16.0
+1 v.W Ill.. 92.3% 19.5
-1. v.USD.. 95.9% 23.5
--.. v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0
Attachment 6251Attachment 6252
Red Birds at Guins is the closest contest this week.
Would NDSU's ranking be significantly higher if they hadn't (seemingly) let up in the 2nd halves of these last 2 games, or once you get beyond a 3 score margin of victory, does the significance drop off?
(I'm hoping we have just let off the gas in these last 2 games and it isn't going to occur in closer games.)
Sagarin doesn't reveal the details of his algorithm so it's hard to say for sure, but given that the standard deviation around a particular predicted winning margin is about 14 points, I'd be shocked if any blow out capping features kicked in as soon as a three score margin of victory. It's a safe bet that if NDSU won by more their rating would be higher.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonboone11
v.Mo St 99.8%
Poor poor Missouri State.
So you're saying the Bears have a chance???Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSnuffleupagus
Thats why they play the gameQuote:
Originally Posted by cbline
I just watched Coyote Corner and Youngstown didn't look that great. Most of their points were from coyote turn overs in the red zone. Made me feel way better about crushing them later in the year.
The only team that will beat the Bison is...........the BisonQuote:
Originally Posted by BisonHorns
Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
Word!!!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Well before last weekend I said not a chance, but then they beat Oakland so maybe ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by cbline
soooo sick of these guys f*ckin' up our sh!t. We'll still be a playoff team tho.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images.../c4L75BxP.jpeg