If we lost to Western Illinois, our fan base would be behaving the same way.Quote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
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If we lost to Western Illinois, our fan base would be behaving the same way.Quote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
Check out how high Sagarin had us back in 2007
http://www2.k2pdf.com/export/6A63D2F...DSU04nov07.pdf
Wow that 07 elo chess has us at #14. Thats crazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
my jaw droppedQuote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
UNI's was #10...that must have been the year they won the championshi...err...wait...Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
That's the metric that the idiots who think that point differential is a moral hazard force the BCS to use. Which is yet another reason why the BCS is garbage. They pretend that the 'computers' provide an objective element to the process but they dictate the metrics the people running the computers are and are not allowed to use as inputs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
Sagarin must have done a DOE to isolate the most significant independent variables.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I'm sure that he did, the guy's a genius. But if the guys writing the rules specificly exclude the single most important independent variable from consideration the rest of it doesn't matter much, you're likely to get a BS answer. For 4 of the top 10 teams you get an answer that's at least a touchdown different by including margin of victory in the calculation (PREDICTOR) rather than not (ELO CHESS). For Northern Iowa it's 11, for NSDU it was 12 at that particular point in time.Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
OMG, we would've been eligible for a BCS at-large bowl berth!!! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
A little bored, so I crunched the Sagarin numbers for the rest of the season. I included all of our opponents plus any FCS team above us in rating. All stats are from the predictor column, and point differentials include home field advantage. I also included whether the team has over- or underplayed the Sagarin prediction in the games played to date. Sagarin is not well-connected yet, so attribute even less value to all of this than usual. Again, bored(and halftime Oregon/Cal).
Code:rate predict actual diff
72 Northern Iowa 68.32 + 0.22
78 Georgia Southern 66.48
82 North Dakota State 65.46
121 Minnesota 57.58 + 4.80 +13.00 +8.20
135 Youngstown State 55.14 +13.40
139 Southern Illinois 54.68 + 7.70
155 Indiana State 50.74 +11.64
157 Illinois State 50.58 +17.96 +10.00 -7.96
174 Missouri State 47.21 +21.33
178 Western Illinois 46.55 +15.83
182 South Dakota State 45.99 +16.39
201 Lafayette 41.19 +27.35 +36.00 +8.65
240 Saint Francis-Pa 24.76 +43.78 +53.00 +9.22