Sagarin says

The standard deviation is about 14 points. So, if +5 is the average expected result you'd expect about 2/3 of the outcomes to be between -9 and +19. +5 implies that the favored team would win approximately 65% of the time.

It's early days for the Sagarin model. As reformedUNDfan points out NDSU has outperformed the current predictions for all its previous games. There are probably a couple of things driving that.

First, the model isn't well connected so its still using preseason weights in its calculation (this will likely be the case until mid October). Presumably these are based on last year's performance but I haven't seen anything definitive about how Sagarin determines his starting values. If this is the only reason (probably not true) that NDSU has outperformed the predictor in every contest so far that would imply that NDSU should receive a boost to its rating as time passes and the model relies less on the starting values and more on this year's results.

Our opponents thus far may simply be playing poorly against us and better in their other games.

Our opponents starting values may be skewed to high which would make the projected margin too small. To the extent that is happening as the model relies less on starting values the quality of our opponents will decline. To the extent that the starting values overestimate the quality of our opponents thus far that will put downward pressure on NDSU's rating as time passes.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

The standard deviation is about 14 points. So, if +5 is the average expected result you'd expect about 2/3 of the outcomes to be between -9 and +19. +5 implies that the favored team would win approximately 65% of the time.

It's early days for the Sagarin model. As reformedUNDfan points out NDSU has outperformed the current predictions for all its previous games. There are probably a couple of things driving that.

First, the model isn't well connected so its still using preseason weights in its calculation (this will likely be the case until mid October). Presumably these are based on last year's performance but I haven't seen anything definitive about how Sagarin determines his starting values. If this is the only reason (probably not true) that NDSU has outperformed the predictor in every contest so far that would imply that NDSU should receive a boost to its rating as time passes and the model relies less on the starting values and more on this year's results.

Our opponents thus far may simply be playing poorly against us and better in their other games.

Our opponents starting values may be skewed to high which would make the projected margin too small. To the extent that is happening as the model relies less on starting values the quality of our opponents will decline. To the extent that the starting values overestimate the quality of our opponents thus far that will put downward pressure on NDSU's rating as time passes.

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another factor in UNIs ranking is the ranking inflation that occurs due to playing a DII opponent. NDSUs SOS and ranking is pulled down due to the poor competition of pvamu and bob Morris. UNIs is not similarly pulled down because the ranking does not take DIIs into account. Their SOS and ranking are inflated as a result. How much, who knows. But it's there.

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Originally Posted by Tatanka

another factor in UNIs ranking is the ranking inflation that occurs due to playing a DII opponent. NDSUs SOS and ranking is pulled down due to the poor competition of pvamu and bob Morris. UNIs is not similarly pulled down because the ranking does not take DIIs into account. Their SOS and ranking are inflated as a result. How much, who knows. But it's there.

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There may be an effect from this but keep in mind that in addition to NDSU's SOS being pulled down by playing a couple of relatively weak opponents early NDSU is also receiving credit for pounding them. When UNI plays a DII their SOS isn't harmed, true, but they also receive no credit for the win or the margin or victory.

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Originally Posted by Tatanka

another factor in UNIs ranking is the ranking inflation that occurs due to playing a DII opponent. NDSUs SOS and ranking is pulled down due to the poor competition of pvamu and bob Morris. UNIs is not similarly pulled down because the ranking does not take DIIs into account. Their SOS and ranking are inflated as a result. How much, who knows. But it's there.

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in sagarin, all sub-d1 teams are counted as a single team. The model considers carrol college, south dakota school of mines, etc to be the same team. 'Unrated' has gone 4-46 this year.

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Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan

in sagarin, all sub-d1 teams are counted as a single team. The model considers carrol college, south dakota school of mines, etc to be the same team. 'Unrated' has gone 4-46 this year.

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I'm not quite sure how this works. There is a line number 247 for unrated w/ a zero SOS and a -90 rating which implies that its part of the model but the introductory comments also state that "ONLY games between the 246 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations" (emphasis theirs). It's confusing and until today I was thinking and probably posted earlier in this thread along the same lines what I've quoted from you. But it occurs to me that the 247th unrated line may be there simply to reconcile the W and L columns because the introductory language is quite explicit.

Things are beginning to stabilize, though we are still not well connected. NDSU and Indiana St were the big winners in conference, while Southern Illinois was the big loser. The MVFC continues to dominate with the highest conference ranking and three of the top four individual spots. The Bison are just head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS. In one respect(points), there is a bigger gap between NDSU and YSU than us and Ohio State(21th). In simple rank, the difference between us and YSU is the same as us and Arizona State(9th). It's not really a valid way of looking at things, but it's still fun.

Sagarin's predictions for week 6:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 46        North Dakota State        74.59                       
216        Robert Morris                35.47          +41.81    +52.00        +10.19
132        Colorado State                56.83          +15.07    +15.00        - 0.07
239        Prairie View A&M        24.86          +52.42    +59.00        + 6.58
 87        Northern Iowa                65.53          + 6.37    +12.00        + 5.63
 83        Youngstown State        66.60          +10.68               
135        Indiana State                56.68          +20.60               
150        South Dakota                53.26          +21.33               
174        Southern Illinois        48.32          +28.96               
185        Missouri State                45.41          +26.49               
110        South Dakota State        61.15          +16.13               
104        Illinois State                62.06          + 9.84               
                                       
192        Western Illinois        42.41                       
                                       
        Home        2.69

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

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46  North Dakota State
 83  Youngstown State
 85  Cal Poly
 87  Northern Iowa
 88  Harvard
 90  Georgia Southern
 96  Wofford
100  Eastern Washington
101  James Madison
104  Illinois State

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Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        57.77
2.  Colonial        55.68
3.  Big Sky        54.14
4.  Southern        53.87

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This is pure wild-assed speculation, but something cool could happen next year if things go just right. If we win out and Kansas St finishes strong, we will both have high starting positions next year. KSU will almost certainly be in the top-30(maybe top-10), and NDSU should stay around the top-40/50. This is important because there are bonuses for playing(and beating) top-10/-30 teams. If NDSU were to pull out a win at Manhattan, it might be just enough to push NDSU into the top-30. Long shot, but it could be possible. That would have a ripple effect on the rest of the conference's SOS. It would probably be enough to put the MVFC above at least one FBS conference. The effect wouldn't last through the season unless KSU performs really well after that, but it would be cool for awhile.

Sagarin says we are favored by 2 touchdowns over #2 ranked Mt. St.

Dont care about MT ST my only concern is Youngstown.

msum = winless our sagarin cant be that good :(