Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by BisonTeacher

Just like Barry Sanders. Cross the goal line...turn and hand the ball to the ref...head back to sidelines. Act like you've been there before. There is something to be said for this.

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:):):):)!!!!

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Originally Posted by JustinTyem

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

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uMass is having a reaaaallly rough go at it.

I was looking back through this thread and last season, Sagarin wasn't "well connected" until the middle of October so we probably have several more weeks to go before his model is running exclusively on data from the current season.

Gotta laugh at how Savannah State has the hardest/best schedule ranking (depending on how you look at it), lol.

Sagarin's predictions for week 5:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 57        North Dakota State        73.00                       
226        Robert Morris                32.72          +42.70    +52.00    + 9.30
127        Colorado State                57.40          +13.18    +15.00        + 1.82
237        Prairie View A&M        27.05          +48.37    +59.00        +10.63
 86        Northern Iowa                65.52          + 5.06               
 82        Youngstown State        66.08          + 9.34               
166        Indiana State                50.28          +25.14               
156        South Dakota                51.59          +21.41               
155        Southern Illinois        52.29          +23.13               
187        Missouri State                45.33          +25.25               
113        South Dakota State        59.86          +15.56               
 99        Illinois State                62.70          + 7.88               
                                       
193        Western Illinois        42.74                       
                                       
        Home                        2.42

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

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57  North Dakota State
 80  Delaware
 82  Youngstown State
 86  Northern Iowa
 90  Georgia Southern
 94  Eastern Washington
 95  James Madison
 99  Illinois State
101  Wofford
105  Cal Poly

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Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        56.80
2.  Colonial        55.13
3.  Big Sky        53.76
4.  Southern        53.23

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Sagarin's predictions for week 5:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff
 57        North Dakota State        73.00                       
226        Robert Morris                32.72          +42.70    +52.00    + 9.30
127        Colorado State                57.40          +13.18    +15.00        + 1.82
237        Prairie View A&M        27.05          +48.37    +59.00        +10.63
 86        Northern Iowa                65.52          + 5.06               
 82        Youngstown State        66.08          + 9.34               
166        Indiana State                50.28          +25.14               
156        South Dakota                51.59          +21.41               
155        Southern Illinois        52.29          +23.13               
187        Missouri State                45.33          +25.25               
113        South Dakota State        59.86          +15.56               
 99        Illinois State                62.70          + 7.88               
                                       
193        Western Illinois        42.74                       
                                       
        Home                        2.42

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

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57  North Dakota State
 80  Delaware
 82  Youngstown State
 86  Northern Iowa
 90  Georgia Southern
 94  Eastern Washington
 95  James Madison
 99  Illinois State
101  Wofford
105  Cal Poly

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Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        56.80
2.  Colonial        55.13
3.  Big Sky        53.76
4.  Southern        53.23

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Hammer, since I am dumb, how much is it saying we will beat UNI by.....

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Hammer, since I am dumb, how much is it saying we will beat UNI by.....

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5.06 pts......

that's precisely wrong - stupid computers.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Hammer, since I am dumb, how much is it saying we will beat UNI by.....

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5 points. All you have to do is look at the prediction column. Home field advantage is already calculated in. But, as bisonaudit would say, 5 points is well within the margin for Sagarin*. IOW, we're favored, but it could easily go against us. Nothing we don't already know.


*I believe the margin is something like 14 points. So us losing by 9, winning by 5, or winning by 19 are all about as likely. Or something like that. I'm a music major and not a statistician after all.


Here's what the columns mean:
Sagarin - this is the PREDICTOR column from Sagarin's rankings(the one on the far right side - it takes into account margin of victory)
Predict - this is the NDSU number minus the opponent number and plus or minus the home field advantage(or not in the case of USD)
Result - this how much the Bison actually won(or lost) the game by; obviously this column doesn't get filled in until after the game
Difference - this is how accurate Sagarin was using the current numbers(Result minus Predict); it also shows whether the Bison played above or below the prediction

so through 3 games, NDSU has beaten the predictor by an average of 7 points or so, while playing backups heavily.

Once things are well connected, NDSU should rise in the rankings.