Sagarin says

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point so here we go:

12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%
9-3 14.4%
8-4 4.0%
7-5 0.7%
6-6 0.1%
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

...based on Sagarin's pre-season numbers.

That's the Rating which we need to talk about whether or not we're going to use. He's publishing three models. one is the predictor that we've used historically, another the Golden_Mean which he asserts is also a purely score based model but employs a somewhat different methodology, the third is an elo_score model which apparently constrains the margin of victory more severely and therefore may not be as accurate of a predictor. The Rating is apparently a weighted average of the three models w/ less emphasis on the elo_score.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point to here we go, based on Sagarin's pre-season numbers:

12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%
9-3 14.4%
8-4 4.0%
7-5 0.7%
6-6 0.1%
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

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Directly reverse those and you get und

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point to here we go:

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#1 or #2 seed, home field for all playoff
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
Seeded, 4th or higher depending on others.
10-2 30.7%
Definitely in playoffs, we'll outbid almost any non-seeded team.
9-3 14.4%
Probably in, depends on others.
8-4 4.0%
Technically eligible but doubtful.
7-5 0.7%
Need to win conference, possible with 6 wins but very unlikely.
6-6 0.1%
Out.
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

Selection committe has already stated that late season losses matter more than early ones, so ending with 3 losses could put us at risk, even at 9-3.

Sagarin has NDSU favored by a couple of points @ Iowa State. :)

Scottietohottie has NDSU favored by 49 points @ iowa state.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by taper

#1 or #2 seed, home field for all playoff
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
Seeded, 4th or higher depending on others.
10-2 30.7%
Definitely in playoffs, we'll outbid almost any non-seeded team.
9-3 14.4%
Probably in, depends on others.
8-4 4.0%
Technically eligible but doubtful.
7-5 0.7%
Need to win conference, possible with 6 wins but very unlikely.
6-6 0.1%
Out.
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

Selection committe has already stated that late season losses matter more than early ones, so ending with 3 losses could put us at risk, even at 9-3.

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For at least this season, NDSU will get every benefit of the doubt as long as they have a winning record. With the way we travel, we are currently the selection committee's best wet dream. It doesn't mean it will carry over past this season, but it will take a lot of things to go wrong for the Bison not to get selected. That being said, I expect nothing less than being near the top of the heap at the end of the season. What would make the MVFC very happy is if we finish with 3 or 4 losses and we are the 4th team out. That would force the selection committee to bring a few more along for the ride just to get to the Bison.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

0-12 0.000000000001%

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Which would put the odds of a winless season at 1 in 100,000,000,000,000 (one hundred trillion). I'll give anyone who wants to take those odds a place to send their money. You might have better odds trying to pick a perfect NCAA basketball tournament bracket.

I always dread your post, thanks for the headache!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point to here we go:

12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%
9-3 14.4%
8-4 4.0%
7-5 0.7%
6-6 0.1%
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

...based on Sagarin's pre-season numbers.

That's the Rating which we need to talk about whether or not we're going to use. He's publishing three models. one is the predictor that we've used historically, another the Golden_Mean which he asserts is also a purely score based model but employs a somewhat different methodology, the third is an elo_score model which apparently constrains the margin of victory more severely and therefore may not be as accurate of a predictor. The Rating is apparently a weighted average of the three models w/ less emphasis on the elo_score.

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OK, I like this:
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%

so, an 80.8% chance of finishing with at least 10 wins. Sounds about right.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SoCalBison

OK, I like this:
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%

so, an 80.8% chance of finishing with at least 10 wins. Sounds about right.

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It feels weird to say, but that looks like an over/under on regular season wins at 10.5 and I think I'd take the under. Losing Bohl and multiple NFL players is not free. Granted we demolished literally everyone in the playoffs so could conceivably fall back and still win 11 games, but that is a lot to lose and still dominate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mnriverbison

It feels weird to say, but that looks like an over/under on regular season wins at 10.5 and I think I'd take the under. Losing Bohl and multiple NFL players is not free. Granted we demolished literally everyone in the playoffs so could conceivably fall back and still win 11 games, but that is a lot to lose and still dominate.

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Good eye. My model suggests just a smidgen under 10.5, again based on Sagarin's preseason start values which we know next to nothing about how he arrives at. Also, the start values are the same for all of the models he presents contrary to what I may have implied yesterday.

I always enjoy your points on this stuff audit, keep 'em coming.

the backups more than held their own in the playoffs. This year is going to be another fun one.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan

the backups more than held their own in the playoffs. This year is going to be another fun one.

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Exactly we were extremely deep last year

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Originally Posted by NDSUFan_Sav

Exactly we were extremely deep last year *

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*TWTGW (that's what this guy wishes)

http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Tea...d57_229485.jpg

Not being a homer. But I don't see the Bison losing more than one game in the season until the semifinals or national championship game. If the Bison don't make the final four, I would be shocked. THEY DON'T HAVE TO DOMINATE. They just have to win their games. Their team was stacked last year. IF their quarterback stays healthy, they have a legit chance to win another national championship. I am not saying they will, but the odds are at least 4:1.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strongman

Not being a homer. But I don't see the Bison losing more than one game in the season until the semifinals or national championship game. If the Bison don't make the final four, I would be shocked. THEY DON'T HAVE TO DOMINATE. They just have to win their games. Their team was stacked last year. IF their quarterback stays healthy, they have a legit chance to win another national championship. I am not saying they will, but the odds are at least 4:1.

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4:1? How did you figure that? I'm thinking 50:50. Either they will or they won't. :p

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IzzyFlexion

*TWTGW (that's what this guy wishes)

http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Tea...d57_229485.jpg

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Since when did you become a teacher?

Great thread, great data and I also look forward to this "type" of thread. ISU will be a great test for this coaching staff and players. Sagarin and Massey seem to think it'll be a good game and I agree.

10-2 and playoffs is a great year for most, funny how it's the floor for us at this point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor

Great thread, great data and I also look forward to this "type" of thread. ISU will be a great test for this coaching staff and players. Sagarin and Massey seem to think it'll be a good game and I agree.

10-2 and playoffs is a great year for most, funny how it's the floor for us at this point.

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ISU fans are happy if they finish above .500. Reading threads at Cyclone Fanatic is depressing........they already accept the fact they will likely have another bad season, but "hope" for something better.

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Originally Posted by SDbison

ISU fans are happy if they finish above .500. Reading threads at Cyclone Fanatic is depressing........they already accept the fact they will likely have another bad season, but "hope" for something better.

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I really don't understand how teams like ISU even sell enough tickets to function. Outside of one or two seasons in the past ??? seasons, they've been under .500 and most years are completely irrelevant to anything past early September. I couldn't imagine if I were an alum from a school like ISU to keep shelling out x amount for season tickets and watch the disparity that is constantly on the field.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by stevdock

I really don't understand how teams like ISU even sell enough tickets to function. Outside of one or two seasons in the past ??? seasons, they've been under .500 and most years are completely irrelevant to anything past early September. I couldn't imagine if I were an alum from a school like ISU to keep shelling out x amount for season tickets and watch the disparity that is constantly on the field.

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Because they are fans of their team. Everyone likes to support their team. Why do people pay to watch the Twins, T-wolves, Oakland Raiders, _nd the list could go on. Just because your team is not good one year, does not mean they cant turn it around. If your a true fan, of a team you hold on, and hope things turn around.

Why would anyone be a Vikings fan? They usually suck, and never won a championship?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Loud and Proud Bison fan

Because they are fans of their team. Everyone likes to support their team. Why do people pay to watch the Twins, T-wolves, Oakland Raiders, _nd the list could go on. Just because your team is not good one year, does not mean they cant turn it around. If your a true fan, of a team you hold on, and hope things turn around.

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Gotta hand it to ISU fans. Their level of support is impressive and strong regardless of their football team's record.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Loud and Proud Bison fan

Why would anyone be a Vikings fan? They usually suck, and never won a championship?

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Quoted for truth..............

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EC8CH

Gotta hand it to ISU fans. Their level of support is impressive and strong regardless of their football team's record.

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The same goes for the Gophers. To be able to build a new stadium and burn the amount of money they do on their football is truly amazing. I guess I would have given up on them a long time ago.

I present this attitude of "why do fans cheer for bad teams?" as exhibit A that we have gained many bandwagon fans in the last decade.

Please consider this bit of evidence before treating our sellout streak as something which can be taken for granted into perpetuity.

Ya'll realize that you are basically outing yourselves as front-running bandwagoners right? And that this disqualifies you permanently from commenting on the attendance of poor teams since also don't support your team through thick and thin? SMH at you whippersnappers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mnriverbison

I present this attitude of "why do fans cheer for bad teams?" as exhibit A that we have gained many bandwagon fans in the last decade.

Please consider this bit of evidence before treating our sellout streak as something which can be taken for granted into perpetuity.

Ya'll realize that you are basically outing yourselves as front-running bandwagoners right? And that this disqualifies you permanently from commenting on the attendance of poor teams since also don't support your team through thick and thin? SMH at you whippersnappers.

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I've always said that it's the tough, sub-500 seasons that make the 3-peats much more pleasurable.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN

The same goes for the Gophers. To be able to build a new stadium and burn the amount of money they do on their football is truly amazing. I guess I would have given up on them a long time ago.

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MN has never had a problem spending money

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN

The same goes for the Gophers. To be able to build a new stadium and burn the amount of money they do on their football is truly amazing. I guess I would have given up on them a long time ago.

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yea. Its called the Big 10 Network.

they probably make more off of 1 year from just than than NDSU makes in 10 years.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mnriverbison

I present this attitude of "why do fans cheer for bad teams?" as exhibit A that we have gained many bandwagon fans in the last decade.

Please consider this bit of evidence before treating our sellout streak as something which can be taken for granted into perpetuity.

Ya'll realize that you are basically outing yourselves as front-running bandwagoners right? And that this disqualifies you permanently from commenting on the attendance of poor teams since also don't support your team through thick and thin? SMH at you whippersnappers.

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You are absolutely right. NDSU rarely ever had a sellout and as soon as NDSU lost their second game of the season the Dome started to empty. Lose 3 games and you could have a conversation with someone on the other side of the field.

I know I started this question, but mine was more so with money tied to the product. I've been a Cubs fan for 30 some years now. I follow them consistently but the difference is I've only been to one game. So my money is not directly tied to the product. Even as an alum I think it would be really tough to go see a poor product on the field AND give to support that product. Winning consistently definitely helps both of those areas immensely.

Wrong. The Vikings won the 1969 NFL championship. The Superbowl between the NFL and AFL champions didn't start until the following season.

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Originally Posted by Loud and Proud Bison fan

Because they are fans of their team. Everyone likes to support their team. Why do people pay to watch the Twins, T-wolves, Oakland Raiders, _nd the list could go on. Just because your team is not good one year, does not mean they cant turn it around. If your a true fan, of a team you hold on, and hope things turn around.

Why would anyone be a Vikings fan? They usually suck, and never won a championship?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Wrong. The Vikings won the 1969 NFL championship. The Superbowl between the NFL and AFL champions didn't start until the following season.

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?? I'm pretty sure the Vikings lost Super Bowl IV to end that season. NFL-AFL hadn't merged yet but they had the SB.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Wrong. The Vikings won the 1969 NFL championship. The Superbowl between the NFL and AFL champions didn't start until the following season.

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Yeah, and they also won NFC Championships in 1973, 1974, and 1976. (We won't mention that they went on to lose the Super Bowl in all of these years) :hide:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Wrong. The Vikings won the 1969 NFL championship. The Superbowl between the NFL and AFL champions didn't start until the following season.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_I

There ya go!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Wrong. The Vikings won the 1969 NFL championship. The Superbowl between the NFL and AFL champions didn't start until the following season.

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Ok, most of you are making my point. The Vikings usually do stink, and most of you still care. The same goes for ISU, they are passionate about their team and hope that each new season, they will get better and thrive. I will not make fun of a person's favorite team, we are all entitled to our opinions. Heck, I wont make fun of random ppl for being passionate fans, the only ppl I make fun of are those I know can take and will deal $hit right back. Sorry to go off track topic on this thread, I was just sticking up for all those people making fun of ISU fans. That is just not right to do.

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Originally Posted by Loud and Proud Bison fan

Ok, most of you are making my point. The Vikings usually do stink, and most of you still care. The same goes for ISU, they are passionate about their team and hope that each new season, they will get better and thrive. I will not make fun of a person's favorite team, we are all entitled to our opinions. Heck, I wont make fun of random ppl for being passionate fans, the only ppl I make fun of are those I know can take and will deal $hit right back. Sorry to go off track topic on this thread, I was just sticking up for all those people making fun of ISU fans. That is just not right to do.

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I agree. The people that only care when the team is good are the definition of bandwagon fans. I will admit that I am a Vikings fan. I always have been and always will be. I'm a Bison fan too. I always knew I was going to NDSU. I will always be a fan, even in the bad years.

The first two Bison games we attended in person after leaving North Dakota were both losses in 2008 so I guess that we've stuck with them in the down years too. :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonboone11

I agree. The people that only care when the team is good are the definition of bandwagon fans. I will admit that I am a Vikings fan. I always have been and always will be. I'm a Bison fan too. I always knew I was going to NDSU. I will always be a fan, even in the bad years.

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Ditto. My enjoyment of sports goes well beyond if my team is dominant and I can get into shoe-size contests with people about how my team is better-basically the adult version of my dad can beat up your dad. As if your team's on field performance says anything at all about you as a person-what a bizarre existence.

The Bison are great. That's icing on the cake. We won't miss you when (and it's when, not if) this run ends and you all become Nebraska fans or whatever.

Well, I managed to delete my sagarin excel spreadsheet over the summer, so I'm rebuilding from scratch (again). I haven't picked which of the sagarin columns I plan to use, but all four are the same for now, so I can put off that decision. Bison favored in every game. Will do the FCS top-25 and conference top-whatever maybe this weekend.

Code:

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                                Sagarin        Predict  Result  Diff

 46        North Dakota State        75.15                       
 64        Iowa State                70.23          1.80               
192        Weber State                43.63          28.40               
206        Incarnate Word                40.73          37.54               
103        Montana                        62.20          16.07               
171        Western Illinois        49.49          22.54               
109        Southern Illinois        61.16          17.11               
186        Indiana State                58.44          19.83               
156        South Dakota                52.62          19.41               
 76        South Dakota State        67.49          10.78               
 86        Northern Iowa                65.92          6.11               
136        Missouri State                56.57          15.46               
 98        Youngstown State        62.48          15.79               
                                       
127        Illinois State                58.44                       
                                        Total Diff:        0.00
        Home Field                  3.12

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Well, I managed to delete my sagarin excel spreadsheet over the summer, so I'm rebuilding from scratch (again). I haven't picked which of the sagarin columns I plan to use, but all four are the same for now, so I can put off that decision. Bison favored in every game. Will do the FCS top-25 and conference top-whatever maybe this weekend.

Code:

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                                Sagarin        Predict  Result  Diff

 46        North Dakota State        75.15                       
 64        Iowa State                70.23          1.80               
192        Weber State                43.63          28.40               
206        Incarnate Word                40.73          37.54               
103        Montana                        62.20          16.07               
171        Western Illinois        49.49          22.54               
109        Southern Illinois        61.16          17.11               
186        Indiana State                58.44          19.83               
156        South Dakota                52.62          19.41               
 76        South Dakota State        67.49          10.78               
 86        Northern Iowa                65.92          6.11               
136        Missouri State                56.57          15.46               
 98        Youngstown State        62.48          15.79               
                                       
127        Illinois State                58.44                       
                                        Total Diff:        0.00
        Home Field                  3.12

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so you're saying there's a chance...