Sagarin says

Sagarin predicts NDSU to win somewhere between 53% and 62% of the time v. SHSU depdending on how much home field advantage you award SHSU.

If you give SHSU the full 3.01 points the line would be NDSU -1, if you call it a neutral field it's NDSU -4.

Basically, Sagarin is saying think about this in the same way you were thinking about UNI leading up to that contest, not in terms of style of course (his model is totally ignorant of those sorts of considerations) just simply in terms of the relative quality of the opponent, and is predicting a very tough contest.

The Bison finished the season #37 in the Saragin rankings with a Predictor rating of 75.66.

Colorado State finished the season #142 with a Predictor rating of 55.32.

Give the Rams 3 points for the homefield and that would make the Bison 17 point favorites. That's an eye opening number for an FCS/FBS matchup.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

The Bison finished the season #37 in the Saragin rankings with a Predictor rating of 75.66.

Colorado State finished the season #142 with a Predictor rating of 55.32.

Give the Rams 3 points for the homefield and that would make the Bison 17 point favorites. That's an eye opening number for an FCS/FBS matchup.

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You have to give the Rams the -10 points for a new coach making NDSU a 4 touchdown favorite ;)

Sweet. Sagarin now includes separate home advantages for each set of ratings. Here are the final results of the season. In the conference race, the Valley ended with a pretty clear advantage over the other power conferences.

Final

Code:

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                        rate  predict  actual        diff
44  North Dakota State        75.66 
71  Sam Houston State        69.31          + 6.35  +11.00  +4.65
79  Northern Iowa        66.98          +11.47  + 8.00        -3.47
82  Georgia Southern        66.13          +12.32  +28.00  +15.68
91  Minnesota                63.92          + 8.95  +13.00  +4.05
99  Illinois State        62.83          +15.62  +10.00  -5.62
107 Youngstown State        61.19          +17.26  - 3.00  -20.26
118 Lehigh                59.03          +19.42  +24.00  +4.58
120 James Madison        58.24          +20.21  +12.00  -8.21
123 Indiana State        58.07          +14.80  + 9.00  -5.80
147 Southern Illinois        53.90          +18.97  + 6.00  -12.97
150 South Dakota State        52.68          +20.19  +24.00        +3.81
161 Missouri State        49.95          +28.50  +30.00        +1.50
191 Lafayette                43.49          +34.96  +36.00  +1.04
192 Western Illinois        43.12          +29.75  +16.00  -13.75
230 Saint Francis-Pa        30.37          +48.08  +53.00  +4.92

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Week 16

Code:

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                        rate  predict  actual        diff
46  North Dakota State        74.33 
67  Sam Houston State        70.23  + 4.10
81  Northern Iowa        67.06  +10.25  + 8.00        -2.25
83  Georgia Southern        65.61  +11.70  +28.00  +16.30
88  Minnesota                64.41  + 6.94  +13.00  +6.06
97  Illinois State        62.66  +14.65  +10.00  -4.64
109 Youngstown State        61.05  +16.26  - 3.00  -19.26
118 Lehigh                59.04  +18.27  +24.00  +5.73
120 James Madison        58.33  +18.98  +12.00  -6.98
122 Indiana State        58.07  +13.28  + 9.00  -4.28
148 Southern Illinois        53.61  +17.74  + 6.00  -11.74
151 South Dakota State        52.52  +18.83  +24.00        +5.17
163 Missouri State        49.57  +27.74  +30.00        +2.26
190 Lafayette                43.51  +33.80  +36.00  +2.20
192 Western Illinois        42.98  +28.37  +16.00  -12.37
231 Saint Francis-Pa        30.36  +46.95  +53.00  +6.05

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Conferences

Code:

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Final
1. GWC        58.24
2. MVFC        58.00
3. SoCn        55.58
4. BSC        55.39
5. CAA        53.68
6. SLC  47.04

Week 16
1. GWC        58.34
2. MVFC        57.80
3. BSC        55.61
4. SoCn        55.34
5. CAA        53.86
6. SLC  47.30

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The following means absolutely nothing, but I figured why not. This is a preview of next year's schedule using the final numbers from this year. Again, it means nothing.

Code:

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                        rate  predict
44  North Dakota State        75.66       
79  Northern Iowa        66.98        + 5.89
99  Illinois State        62.83        +10.04
107  Youngstown State        61.19        +17.26
123  Indiana State        58.07        +20.38
129  South Dakota        57.01  +15.86
140  Colorado State        55.44        +17.43
147  Southern Illinois        53.90        +24.55
150  South Dakota State        52.68        +25.77
161  Missouri State        49.95        +22.92
227  Robert Morris        31.20        +47.25

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sooo 11-0?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10

sooo 15-0?

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Fixed it for you...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

The following means absolutely nothing, but I figured why not. This is a preview of next year's schedule using the final numbers from this year. Again, it means nothing.

Code:

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                        rate  predict
44  North Dakota State        75.66       
79  Northern Iowa        66.98        + 5.89
99  Illinois State        62.83        +10.04
107  Youngstown State        61.19        +17.26
123  Indiana State        58.07        +20.38
129  South Dakota        57.01  +15.86
140  Colorado State        55.44        +17.43
147  Southern Illinois        53.90        +24.55
150  South Dakota State        52.68        +25.77
161  Missouri State        49.95        +22.92
227  Robert Morris        31.20        +47.25

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So where are your hypothetical playoff matchups?

Do we have any idea of who the 11th game may be against?

Thank you Hammer and Audit for the number crunching...one of my fav threads this season