Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
I miss Chubs
Back when I went to school and NDSU wasn’t “big timey” yet my buds and I all had our favorite FBS teams as well as NDSU. One guy didn’t have a team so we selected Vanderbilt for him and would excitedly proclaim the Vanderbilt scores for him and console him after looses etc.
One year saw that vegas had Vandy at 276,000:1 odds to win the SEC. was super tempted to place a bet but was before internet gambling was easy and had no clue how to place a bet like that anyway.
That season Jay Cutler tore it up for them and damn near won the thing. Damn near.
So, had you placed a bet, you still would have lost.
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ThunderDan
So, had you placed a bet, you still would have lost.
You sell those bets back to the bookie when the odds start to get narrower. Buy for 276,000:1, near the end of the season maybe their odds become more like 40:1, the bookie will happily give you something like 100 times your original bet back in order to mitigate the risk of having to pay it out in full.
I pulled those numbers out of my ass, but the point stands. Mitigation is very common in long odds betting.
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WeAreThePride
You sell those bets back to the bookie when the odds start to get narrower. Buy for 276,000:1, near the end of the season maybe their odds become more like 40:1, the bookie will happily give you something like 100 times your original bet back in order to mitigate the risk of having to pay it out in full.
I pulled those numbers out of my ass, but the point stands. Mitigation is very common in long odds betting.
I remember when Rocket Mortgage did the billion dollar March Madness bracket contest where if anyone could fill out a perfect bracket they'd win a billion dollars. It was insured by Warren Buffet and he said that if someone was going into the 63rd game with a perfect bracket he would've offered them $100M to call it even. I'd guess if someone was getting close he probably would've made an offer before that as well.
The odds of even getting that far are astronomically small but I think if I had the option to take a guaranteed $100M vs a possible $1B (or $0) on a coin flip I'd take the $100M in a heartbeat.
Here's a story on it and the theoretical "Buffet buyout": https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/201...dollar-bracket
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Professor Chaos
I remember when Rocket Mortgage did the billion dollar March Madness bracket contest where if anyone could fill out a perfect bracket they'd win a billion dollars. It was insured by Warren Buffet and he said that if someone was going into the 63rd game with a perfect bracket he would've offered them $100M to call it even. I'd guess if someone was getting close he probably would've made an offer before that as well.
The odds of even getting that far are astronomically small but I think if I had the option to take a guaranteed $100M vs a possible $1B (or $0) on a coin flip I'd take the $100M in a heartbeat.
Here's a story on it and the theoretical "Buffet buyout":
https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/201...dollar-bracket
I'd take the 100 mil and yolo it on 0dte calls before I even paid the taxes.
Then I'd have..... at least 6 billion.
Then that old fuck would have to give me the title of Oracle of Omaha.
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Professor Chaos
I remember when Rocket Mortgage did the billion dollar March Madness bracket contest where if anyone could fill out a perfect bracket they'd win a billion dollars. It was insured by Warren Buffet and he said that if someone was going into the 63rd game with a perfect bracket he would've offered them $100M to call it even. I'd guess if someone was getting close he probably would've made an offer before that as well.
The odds of even getting that far are astronomically small but I think if I had the option to take a guaranteed $100M vs a possible $1B (or $0) on a coin flip I'd take the $100M in a heartbeat.
Here's a story on it and the theoretical "Buffet buyout":
https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/201...dollar-bracket
Oh hell yes I would. A perfect bracket isn't impossible in the literal sense, but it's on the order of placing an envelope with the prize check inside a random building on the planet, and you correctly guessing not only the address of that building, but in which room it was placed, AND how far it is in inches from the nearest wall.
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ThunderDan
So, had you placed a bet, you still would have lost.
I think you meant loost
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WeAreThePride
Oh hell yes I would. A perfect bracket isn't impossible in the literal sense, but it's on the order of placing an envelope with the prize check inside a random building on the planet, and you correctly guessing not only the address of that building, but in which room it was placed, AND how far it is in inches from the nearest wall.
Correct! basically the exact odds of Kansas making a 4 team CFP
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WeAreThePride
Of course they don't have a shot at the CFP. They're bad at football. They're not getting in because they're no good, not because of systemic barriers or bias.
100% agree. I never argued that bias is what is keeping them back haha, just that they suck
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MankatoBison
100% agree. I never argued that bias is what is keeping them back haha, just that they suck
I misunderstood you. Almost always when people say "Kansas/Illinois have zero shot at a championship" they're whinging about how the playoff needs to expand to approximately 1024 spots.
Re: Matt Entz Seems VERY Supportive of FBS Jump
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WeAreThePride
I misunderstood you. Almost always when people say "Kansas/Illinois have zero shot at a championship" they're whinging about how the playoff needs to expand to approximately 1024 spots.
No we're totally on the same page- If kansas or illinois or vandy etc go undefeated, theyre in. That means they won the conference title game too!
I was just saying that there are a very large number of teams who realistically have 0.000003% chance of making a 4 team CFP because they're so irrelevant on the field
