Printable View
Imagine the buildup if it does end up being an NDSU/UNI Championship.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
The winner's bragging rights will be unprecedented!
The losing team's fans will be on 24 hour suicide watch not wanting to face the cyber-pummeling.
Interesting that 'on paper' the top 3 seeds correctly got the easiest, 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest schedules in the playoffs...impressive. Also funny #4 Montana has 6th easiest schedule but #8 Mont St is 5th easiest.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
Depth column (average expected rounds each team will survive) has us as a very clear #1 at 3.66. GSU (3.06) and SHSU (3.04) 2nd and 3rd respectively.
If you're a gambling fiend... put your bet to win championship on NDSU at 2.63-1? or Stony Brook at 1627.63-1??? :)
Anybody has that game simulator/predictor website handy? I can't seem to find it.
Thanks in advance.
This one?Quote:
Originally Posted by GradBison
http://nationalsportsrankings.com/in...n=com_oneonone
North Dakota St.(2011) wins 87 of 100 matchups against James Madison(2011)
Sagarin has the same predicted bracket as Massey, BTW.
Sagarin also says you should take Stony Brook @ 1628-1 but not NDSU at 2.63.
Sagarin says NDSU over JMU 92 out of 100.
Sagarin, by a small margin says, Ga. Southern, is the best team in the field so NDSU getting them at home in the semi's rather than on a neutral field in the championship is quite advantagous to NDSU in simulations built off of his assessments.
Thank you sir!Quote:
Originally Posted by TAILG8R
I'm starting to wonder if there was a mistake regarding GSU's ranking last week. At this time of year, the ratings are barely moving from week to week(tenths or even hundredths of a point). But GSU suddenly jumped ahead of us for one week, then dropped 2.5 points after a win(we dropped 0.04). Oh well, guess we'll never know.
Anyway, I've updated the list by dropping Towson and adding Maine. I'll continue to include our upcoming opponent and both possible opponents from the next round. Sagarin has us as 12.45 point favorites over Lehigh, 11.28 over Maine, and 5.51 over GSU.
If anyone doesn't understand what the numbers mean, I'll explain again(I should have done this a couple times during the season). First, all ratings come from the PREDICTOR column of Sagarin. The rate column from my chart is the raw predictor number. My predict column is what Sagarin predicts the outcome of the game will be, factoring in home field advantage. If the number is positive(all of them are), we are predicted to win by that amount. The next column(actual) is what the score actually was for that game(blank if we haven't played the game yet). The diff column is the difference between Sagarin's prediction and the actual result. You can use that column to see if the Bison under-performed, over-performed, or played at their typical level for any game. Mostly, it confirms what we already know: We sucked at YSU, SIU & WIU, while we played pretty good ball at Minnesota, SDSU & StFU. The rest of the games were within a TD of the prediction.
Week 14
Week 13Code:rate predict actual diff
66 North Dakota State 70.40
69 Northern Iowa 69.76 + 3.94 + 8.00 +4.06
76 Georgia Southern 68.19 + 5.51
89 Minnesota 64.09 + 3.01 +13.00 +9.99
102 Maine 62.42 +11.28
103 Illinois State 62.29 +11.41 +10.00 -1.41
109 Lehigh 61.25 +12.45
113 Youngstown State 60.69 +13.01 - 3.00 -16.01
125 Indiana State 57.68 + 9.42 + 9.00 -0.42
130 James Madison 56.52 +17.18 +12.00 -5.18
149 Southern Illinois 53.23 +13.87 + 6.00 -7.87
152 South Dakota State 52.13 +14.97 +24.00 +9.03
165 Missouri State 49.20 +24.50 +30.00 +5.50
188 Lafayette 43.81 +29.89 +36.00 +6.11
196 Western Illinois 42.29 +24.81 +16.00 -8.81
233 Saint Francis-Pa 30.16 +43.54 +53.00 +9.46
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
61 Georgia Southern 70.78 + 2.03
65 North Dakota State 70.44
68 Northern Iowa 70.14 + 2.67 + 8.00 +5.33
92 Minnesota 64.01 + 4.06 +13.00 +8.94
100 Illinois State 62.44 +10.37 +10.00 -0.37
112 Youngstown State 60.65 +12.16 - 3.00 -15.16
117 Lehigh 59.55 +13.26
121 Indiana State 57.78 +10.29 + 9.00 -1.29
124 Towson 57.51 +15.30
130 James Madison 56.52 +16.29
149 Southern Illinois 53.42 +14.65 + 6.00 -8.65
152 South Dakota State 52.30 +15.77 +24.00 +8.23
164 Missouri State 49.43 +23.38 +30.00 +6.72
192 Lafayette 42.75 +30.06 +36.00 +5.94
194 Western Illinois 42.44 +25.63 +16.00 -9.63
237 Saint Francis-Pa 29.31 +43.50 +53.00 +9.50
Code:Week 14
1. GWC 58.21
2. MVFC 57.52
3. SoCn 56.34
4. BSC 55.42
5. CAA 54.34
Week 13
1. GWC 58.51
2. SoCn 58.39
3. MVFC 57.66
4. BSC 55.54
5. CAA 52.37
Per sagarin App St should have won by 5 but they lost by 22. That's a 2 standard deviation type of outlier so I wouldn't be suprised to see that reverb through the model. Same conference so there may be some kind of SOS feedback loop happening too. Ga. Southern won but they underperformed sagarin expectation. I think that's why you're seeing such a large change.
NDSU 82.2% to advance.
56.9% to make the final.
33.3% to win it all.
Ga. Southern 16.3%
Sam Houston St. 15.7%
Montana 14.2%
Northern Iowa 14.1%
Montana State 2.5%
Maine 2.2%
Leigh 1.8%
Computer games are unreliable, but fun, nonetheless.
The unreliable bit isn't the computer. They're utterly predictable. The variance is in human performance. Either the human telling the computer what to do or the humans performing the actions the computer is attempting to simulate.