I think something like that would bring about a change to college football quicker than the way they are going about it right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
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I think something like that would bring about a change to college football quicker than the way they are going about it right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Conference rankings are at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...13/conference/.
SEC West is #1 followed by Pac-12 North and Pac-12 South. SEC East is #4
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Yes please USA Today, I would like to read this article and see more NDSU coverage in your paper!!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...&dlvrit=384245
Wow great article, great post. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Best quote:
Sagarin accepts that some fans won't be able to fathom that his current ratings would mean North Dakota State would be favored by roughly 2½ points against Oklahoma and 4½ points against Texas on a neutral field.
But he doesn't exactly understand why they take that view.
"People enjoy basketball, but it's kind of a religion to them in football," Sagarin says. "Everyone loves the Butler-Duke game (the 2010 NCAA final that Duke won by two points). People treasure that.
"(But in football) they don't seem to accept that (possibility) intellectually."
Inconceivable!
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I have a brother who is a big Nebraska fan who is in this category. He tried to make excuses when NDSU beat K St. and although he came to realize NDSU really did beat them in Manhattan, he still can't accept that they would take Big Red to the woodshed.
Great article! Only thing that would've made this better is if one of the top 10 games was an FCS game to further illustrate his point. Montana vs. Montana State would be a great exampleQuote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Very nice. You beat my son sending this to me by only a few minutes! He played for your dad, must be that connection :)Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Shouldn't a professional writer know that the possessive plural of "Bison" is "Bison's"?Quote:
Boosting the Bisons' Sagarin rating is a season-opening, three-point win on the road against an FBS team, Kansas State.
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Neat article, otherwise. Thanks for posting.
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NDSU Football is getting national articles on a daily basis. To see how far this program has come nationally in such a short time is incredible. I hope all NDSU fans cherish this anomaly.
Anomaly? I have a serious feeling this is only the beginning...Quote:
Originally Posted by TILIS-BisonFan
I'm reading this as there is definitely an anomaly.... the attention NDSU is receiving is far and above the attention other schools at our level receive.Quote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
Maybe he means anomaly at the fcs levelQuote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
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Are you saying that the Bison are hot?Quote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
Ya, it's like when whatever his name was--Beano Cook--said on national TV in '86: "NDSU is a top 20 team" ... times about 10,000!!Quote:
Originally Posted by UND Thundering Herd
Fun stuff going on!!
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Thrice over ought te be good enough for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
No, appalachian is hot....hot, hot.Quote:
Originally Posted by UND Thundering Herd
STOP SAYING THAT!!!*Quote:
Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10
*if you haven't seen the princess bride, GET FAMILIAR!!!
Agree with Tatanka, at this point. However, if NDSU can somehow manage to reload next year and starts running off victories again, I think attention may very well continue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
We have moved up to a predictor score of 80.74 (#26). We are #22 in Sagarin's composite rating. We'd be favored in the Dome against Johnny Football and A&M and only slight dogs at their house.
Brock for Heisman!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Thanx Gully, It took me over a year to get that video out of my head, now its back. Back to group therapy for me. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Gully
I'm always here to help. It's what I do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonfan1
And Danny football could meet Johnny football in the backfield.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
NDSU is no longer 3 TD dogs vs FSU or Bama now, haha
My question is as bad as Indiana St was when we played them, would they seriously be favored to beat UND at Grand Forks?? And they seriously want to play us??
Five of the top twelve for the MVFC; not bad. New guys at the bottom of the power conferences. I'll probably do something with the playoff field when it's released.
Sagarin's Playoffs Round 1 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff [/U]
26 North Dakota State 80.74
25 Kansas State 81.12 -4.11 3.00 7.11
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
225 Delaware State 34.93 49.54 51.00 1.46
87 South Dakota State 64.18 12.83 20.00 7.17
83 Northern Iowa 64.59 19.88 1.00 -18.88
97 Missouri State 62.13 22.34 15.00 -7.34
95 Southern Illinois 62.42 14.59 21.00 6.41
200 Indiana State 39.66 37.35 46.00 8.65
120 Illinois State 57.75 26.72 18.00 -8.72
115 Youngstown State 59.47 17.54 18.00 0.46
167 South Dakota 49.05 35.42 42.00 6.58
161 Western Illinois 50.74
Total Diff: 2.90
Home 3.73
Sagarin Predictor Top-7 FCS ConferencesCode:1 26 North Dakota State
2 40 Eastern Illinois
3 67 SE Louisiana
4 75 Towson
5 80 Villanova
6 81 William & Mary
7 83 Northern Iowa
8 84 Montana
9 87 South Dakota State
10 88 Eastern Washington
11 95 Southern Illinois
12 97 Missouri State
13 103 Harvard
14 105 McNeese State
15 106 Princeton
16 108 Sam Houston State
17 110 Maine
18 111 New Hampshire
19 113 Cal Poly
20 114 Liberty
21 115 Youngstown State
22 116 Coastal Carolina
23 119 Jacksonville State
24 120 Illinois State
25 121 Bethune-Cookman
Code:1. MVFC 59.37
2. Colonial 56.08
3. Southland 52.51
4. Ohio Valley 51.83
5. Ivy League 49.83
6. Southern 48.92
7. Big Sky 48.71
Raw data dump. Numbers in parentheses are how much a team is favored to win by. Anything below 7 or so is really a pickem. Home field advantage is factored in, but no bye week advantage. Two "upsets" in the first round(home team loses), chalk from there. Bison by 27, 20, 16, & 4. At a quick glance, SDSU has the best chance of sustained upsets before falling to EIU.
Code:Furman 51.37
SC State* 57.34 (9.70)
Beth-Cook 57.37
Coastal C* 59.44 (5.80)
Lafayette 50.13
UNH* 59.96 (13.56)
SUU 47.80
SHSU* 60.74 (16.67)
SDSU 64.18 (5.98)
NAU* 54.47
Samford 54.88
Jax St* 57.82 (6.67)
Sac Heart 50.44
Fordham* 55.77 (9.06)
Tenn St 56.14 (11.60)
Butler* 40.81
1. NDSU* 80.74 (27.13)
SC State 57.34
8. Montana* 64.50 (8.79)
Coastal C 59.44
5. Maine* 60.14 (3.91)
UNH 59.96
4. SELA* 68.78 (11.77)
SHSU 60.74
3. EWU* 64.22 (3.77)
SDSU 64.18
6. McNeese* 61.14 (7.05)
Jax St 57.82
7. Towson* 66.67 (14.63)
Fordham 55.77
2. EIU* 76.68 (24.27)
Tenn St 56.14
1. NDSU* 80.74 (19.97)
8. Montana 64.50
5. Maine 60.14
4. SELA* 68.78 (12.37)
3. EWU* 64.22 (6.81)
6. McNeese 61.14
7. Towson 66.67
2. EIU* 76.68 (13.74)
1. NDSU* 80.74 (15.69)
4. SELA* 68.78
3. EWU* 64.22
2. EIU* 76.68 (16.19)
1. NDSU 80.74 (4.06)
2. EIU 76.68
Wow. We'd be 22 point favorites over the Griz at the Fargodome?
Building off of Hammersmith's work here's a percentage peak at the first two rounds. Uses Sagarin's home field of 3.73. 2.61 pts for a bye. 13.86 standard deviation.
NDSU 100% 98.8%
SC St 76.4% 1.1%
Furman 23.6% 0.1%
Montana 100% 81.4%
Cst Car 66.6% 13.3%
B Ckman 33.4% 5.3%
Maine 100% 71.7%
UNH 84.2% 26.5%
Lafette 15.8% 1.8%
SE L 100% 86.9%
SHSU 89.1% 12.8%
S Utah 10.9% 0.2%
EWU 100% 74.8%
NAU 32.9% 3.9%
SDSU 67.1% 21.4%
McNeese St 100% 78.2%
J'ville State 69.0% 16.4%
Samford 31.0% 5.5%
Towson 100% 91.5%
Fordham 68.4% 6.9%
Sacred Heart 31.6% 1.5%
Eastern Illinois 100% 98.0%
Butler 19.5% 0.0%
Tenn St 80.5% 1.9%
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.97 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the playoffs:
15-0 57.0%
14-1 26.4%
13-1 9.1%
12-1 6.2%
11-1 1.2%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Playoffs:
Sagarin gives NDSU a 57.0% chance of winning the championship.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
SC State 76.4% (Furman 23.6%)
#8 Montana 81.4% (Coastal Carolina 13.3%)
#4 SE Louisiana 71.6% (#5 Maine 16.8%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 75.5% (#3 E. Washington 9.9%)
5 things jump out at meQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
1 - Butler has literally no chance at beating Eatern Illinois
2 - SCSU is really that big of a favorite? Is that because it's a home game?
3 - Either Sacred Heart (going on the road) is better than I thought or Fordham isn't as good as everyone (outside of Sagarin's "followers") thought. I would love for SH to win this game!
4 - SDSU has a legit shot of taking down not only NAU, but EWU.
5 - Can the last team in (UNH) go to Maine and win or will Maine avenge the regular season loss?
NDSU and Eastern Illinois are both huge favorites to make the championship. 83.4% for NDSU and 75.5% for Eastern Illinois. Sagarin anticipate that will be the matchup 63 times out of 100.
10 characters, see red above.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Audit, I am sure this is more than you may want to comment on, but if you swap out EIU for NDSU and run numbers, what are the chances they win the title, etc.
Good write-up, thanks! Gonna see if anyone will take a $10 bet on Butler and give me those odds - ok, maybe not cuz that's like giving away $10Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Not sure if I'd factor in the bye week adjustments. Since they don't know who their opponent will be, it's not a true bye. Really looking forward to seeing the 4/5 and 3/6 quarter games as I think there will be at least one non-seed to be playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
EIU would be 73.1% to make the championship and NDSU 85.1%. Same matchup 62 times in 100.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
By this measure Sagarin thinks that the bottom half of the draw is marginally easier than the top half. I'd speculate the primary driver of that would be avoiding SE Louisiana. Sagarin likes them more than EWU. 4 1/2 points on a neutral field.
You're probably more willing to post the $10 than anyone would be to put up the $8.2 billion on the other side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison