2025 Sagarin Says

It's kind of strange that Sagarin's homefield advantage is so strong this year - he's giving around 5 points for homefield advantage and I feel like I've seen it in past years be under 2 and usually more around the 3 range.

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

It's kind of strange that Sagarin's homefield advantage is so strong this year - he's giving around 5 points for homefield advantage and I feel like I've seen it in past years be under 2 and usually more around the 3 range.

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Yep, I also noticed that. As it stands, SDSU will be a slight favorite at home vs NDSU. Also part of the reason I think they beat MSU more soundly in Brookings.

NDSU's rating of 76.42 is middle of the pack in both the Big 12 and Big 10, the two power conferences in our geographical region. NDSU would be Top Dog in the MAC and Conference USA.

.....And only favored over ISUr by 15? Weird, need to beat the spread again. Hang another 50+ on them!

If you care and have time go watch SDSU's games. There is nothing about their team this year that scares me. Mason is a VERY poor man's Payton and that is being generous.

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Originally Posted by Kevin

I didn’t even known SIU was good this year.

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They are good because their offense is potent (because of the QB run game). Their defense is not good, and if the QB gets hurt they are not good.

If he stays healthy they are probably a quarterfinalist.

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Originally Posted by tony

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.

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Sac St is probably not much worse than USD, but its not a good win for sure. They will go 6-6, maybe worse, this year.

I'm not sure Illinois State is a whole lot better than Sac St or USD though.

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Originally Posted by Bisonator98

Yeah I don't get it either. Herder says SDSU has 2 ranked wins (Sac St and Montana St) and then drops Sac St out so are they a ranked win or not? And Montana St hasn't exactly beat anyone of substance either yet so why does that win against them carry so much weight at the moment?? Guess Mercyhurst is gonna be a powerhouse this year.....

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Ranked at the time the game was played is the qualifier for ranked wins. So USD is also a ranked win for NDSU, even though they will probably fall out of the top 25.

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Originally Posted by Twentysix

Ranked at the time the game was played is the qualifier for ranked wins. So USD is also a ranked win for NDSU, even though they will probably fall out of the top 25.

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They are still in top 25 today. That is how bad the FCS is.

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Originally Posted by Mr Meaty

They are still in top 25 today. That is how bad the FCS is.

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:facepalm:

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Originally Posted by Mr Meaty

They are still in top 25 today. That is how bad the FCS is.

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Just to drive home Mr Meaty's point, they are a legit top 25 team based on Sagarin. FCS is horrible.