2015 Sagarin Says

Got it. It's been a while.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

There are only 2,048 (2^11) possible permutations of 11 game results (assuming no ties) so once I've got the % chance to win each game it's just brute force multiplication to calculate the chance of each of those permutations occurring and then summing them up to get the chance for each record. Once the table is set up excel updates the calculation in a blink. Learn to love: if/then, countif, sumif and lock down those cell references $.

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http://xbmc.us/wp-content/uploads/20...nderstand1.jpg

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0 28.9%
10-1 39.4%
9-2.. 22.8%
8-3.... 7.3%
7-4.... 1.4%
6-5.... 0.2%
5-6.... 0.01%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00001%
2-9.... 0.0000002%
1-10.. 0.000000001%
0-11.. 0.000000000002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64

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How can Weber be an easier game than UN_ when Weber is ranked 179 and UN_ is at 190?

I have always enjoyed this thread, and comparisons, when we were always nearly undefeated. Lets show we're still at that level, before getting too excited. could be a year of shootouts, with a lot to prove this season.

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Originally Posted by 2011BisonAlumni

Can we end this thread . Seriously, why do we sit here and jerk off about some computer ranking . It means nothing.

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Some guys love football. Some guys like crunching numbers. Some guys like to bring the two together and use math to help predict outcomes. Some guys cry like little bitches and need to learn to not read certain threads if they don't interest them.

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Originally Posted by Thundering Herd

Some guys love football. Some guys like crunching numbers. Some guys like to bring the two together and use math to help predict outcomes. Some guys cry like little bitches and need to learn to not read certain threads if they don't interest them.

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This. There are threads I follow, and threads I don't. But I appreciate the sheer amount of discussion on the forum. Don't get why people try to shut down legit topics. I started following the main Wyoming forum site (I am not one of the Bohl haters), and that forum is like a ghost town for real football discussion. Unless you want to talk about whether the uni's should change. Then its a 5 page thread.

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Originally Posted by 2011BisonAlumni

Can we end this thread . Seriously, why do we sit here and jerk off about some computer ranking . It means nothing.

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Gosh, I didn't realize people jerked off to this thread. Go nuts, 2011 dude, go nuts. Whatever gets you off.

As to your comment that it means nothing... Hmm... Early in the season, you may be onto something. But since it exists even early in the season, we may as well still follow it until it actually has a little more value.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by 2011BisonAlumni

Can we end this thread . Seriously, why do we sit here and jerk off about some computer ranking . It means nothing.

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Thanks for your weekly post...your input is valuable and will be taken for what it is...moving on.

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

Gosh, I didn't realize people jerked off to this thread. Go nuts, 2011 dude, go nuts.

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Mods, any possibility to combine this thread with bikini thread to save some people time?

Also be nice to have standardized rankings on the bikinis.

Wow, he actually updated his ratings after our game. As you can imagine, we tumbled a lot. Still the top FCS team.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 1 Predictions

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Rank    Team                  Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff                                               
 70        North Dakota State          68.49                               
103        Montana                    61.42        +4.42        -3.00        -7.42       
179        Weber State                44.53        +26.61                       
190        North Dakota                42.30        +28.84                       
 98        South Dakota State          62.10        +3.74                       
 82        Northern Iowa              66.84        +4.30                       
165        South Dakota                48.07        +23.07                       
119        Indiana State              57.69        +8.15                       
114        Southern Illinois          58.56        +7.28                       
148        Western Illinois            53.75        +17.39                       
102        Youngstown State            61.55        +4.29                       
136        Missouri State              55.51        +15.63                       
                                               
 84        Illinois State              66.18                               
                                               
                                               
                                        Total Diff:        -7.42       
        Home Field                2.65

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Sagarin FCS Top-25

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Rank  SagRank  RATING  Team                                               
 1        70        68.49        North Dakota State                         
 2        82        66.84        Northern Iowa                             
 3        84        66.18        Illinois State                             
 4        92        63.71        Sam Houston State                         
 5        94        62.96        Chattanooga                               
 6        98        62.10        South Dakota State                         
 7        99        61.94        Villanova                                 
 8        100        61.78        Jacksonville State                         
 9        102        61.55        Youngstown State                           
10        103        61.42        Montana                                   
11        104        61.12        Eastern Washington                         
12        108        60.38        Coastal Carolina                           
13        114        58.56        Southern Illinois                         
14        117        58.07        New Hampshire                             
15        119        57.69        Indiana State                             
16        122        57.42        Eastern Illinois                           
17        128        56.73        SE Louisiana                               
18        129        56.61        James Madison                             
19        130        56.45        Montana State                             
20        131        56.41        Samford                                   
21        136        55.51        Missouri State                             
22        140        54.86        Wofford                                   
23        141        54.55        Liberty                                   
24        142        54.46        Harvard                                   
25        144        54.23        Cal Poly-SLO

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Sagarin Conference Ranking

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Conference            CntMean NDSU                                               
SEC                        81.65        14                               
BIG 12                      80.26        10                               
PAC-12                      77.52        12                               
ACC                        75.92        13                               
BIG TEN                    75.43        11                               
I-A INDEPENDENTS            72.11        3                               
AMERICAN ATHLETIC          65.60        6                               
MWC                        64.55        4                               
MISSOURI VALLEY            60.08        1                               
CONFERENCE USA              59.59        4                               
MAC                        58.84        2                               
SUN BELT                    56.82        1                               
COLONIAL                    49.60        1                               
BIG SKY                    48.88        1                               
SOUTHERN                    47.76        1                               
OHIO VALLEY                47.19        1                               
SOUTHLAND                  44.91        1                               
BIG SOUTH                  41.13        1                               
IVY LEAGUE                  39.93        1                               
PATRIOT                    38.50        1                               
NORTHEAST                  37.21        1                               
MID-EASTERN                35.58        1                               
SWAC                        29.88        1                               
PIONEER                    24.15        1

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