2025 Sagarin Says

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09-29-2025, 12:52 PM
tony

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevin

I didn’t even known SIU was good this year.

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.
09-29-2025, 01:13 PM
Hammerhead

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

The Sagarin top 25 after week 4. The drop in predictor points in the first 8 spots is nearly 3x the drop between #8 and #25.

Code:

38 North Dakota State AA 76.42 MISSOURI VALLEY 48 South Dakota State AA 74.55 MISSOURI VALLEY 73 Montana State AA 69.39 BIG SKY 80 Tarleton State AA 68.01 WESTERN ATHLETIC 81 Montana AA 66.23 BIG SKY 91 North Dakota AA 63.95 MISSOURI VALLEY 106 Southern Illinois AA 61.90 MISSOURI VALLEY 110 Harvard AA 60.71 IVY LEAGUE 114 UC Davis AA 60.16 BIG SKY 115 Austin Peay AA 59.80 WESTERN ATHLETIC 121 Idaho AA 58.94 BIG SKY 123 Northern Arizona AA 58.36 BIG SKY 124 Mercer AA 58.32 SOUTHERN 127 Tennessee Tech AA 58.05 BIG SOUTH/OVC 130 Youngstown State AA 57.76 MISSOURI VALLEY 133 Incarnate Word AA 57.23 SOUTHLAND 136 Yale AA 56.80 IVY LEAGUE 138 West Georgia AA 56.51 WESTERN ATHLETIC 140 SE Louisiana AA 56.14 SOUTHLAND 141 Illinois State AA 56.10 MEAC 143 Sacramento State AA 55.97 BIG SKY 144 South Dakota AA 55.82 MISSOURI VALLEY 145 Stephen F. Austin AA 55.59 SOUTHLAND 146 Monmouth-NJ AA 55.28 COASTAL 147 Dartmouth AA 55.12 IVY LEAGUE
09-29-2025, 01:18 PM
TAILG8R

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by tony

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.

I said it two weeks ago, as of right now it looks like NDSU can waltz to another championship. Every other regular contender is considerably down from the last few years imo.

*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*
09-29-2025, 01:22 PM
THEsocalledfan

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by TAILG8R

I said it two weeks ago, as of right now it looks like NDSU can waltz to another championship. Every other regular contender is considerably down from the last few years imo.

*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

For the record, I'm not sure we are going to know until the SDSU game. They are only a couple of points behind in Sagarin, which is going to make that game in Brookings close to a wash when the line is set. The model should be getting pretty strong at this point, so I'm curious if we will see that gap expand or not. I'm alway impressed with the accuracy of Sagarin, overall.
09-29-2025, 01:22 PM
Bisonator98

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by tony

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.

Yeah I don't get it either. Herder says SDSU has 2 ranked wins (Sac St and Montana St) and then drops Sac St out so are they a ranked win or not? And Montana St hasn't exactly beat anyone of substance either yet so why does that win against them carry so much weight at the moment?? Guess Mercyhurst is gonna be a powerhouse this year.....
09-29-2025, 01:35 PM
NI4NI

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

For the record, I'm not sure we are going to know until the SDSU game. They are only a couple of points behind in Sagarin, which is going to make that game in Brookings close to a wash when the line is set. The model should be getting pretty strong at this point, so I'm curious if we will see that gap expand or not. I'm alway impressed with the accuracy of Sagarin, overall.

This is the camp I am in. I'm not breathing any sigh of relief until Oct 25. Also keeping an eye on Tarleton & MSU until proven otherwise.
09-29-2025, 02:01 PM
tony

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan

Missoula a little bigger than Grand Forks. I've been there 5 times, this opinion isn't coming from inexperience.

NDSU is moving on, noone should be want to be anchored to these Western schools, especially not <5000 undergraduate UM, unless you want to be FCS forever.

I agree with that - NDSU shouldn't be anchored to them, but if an FBS conferences wants the Montana schools along with NDSU then so be it. One thing is certain: There is no scenario where UND going FBS, with or without NDSU, makes sense to anybody with even the most tenuous grasp on reality. Tiny stadium, pathetic fan base, the TV ratings of a 3am informercial in the third biggest market in ND at an institution for whom football is an afterthought and would still be D2 if they so desperately didn't need NDSU to have the slightest relevance... that's the reality of UND football.

There is not a single metric in which the Montana schools don't blow UND out of the freaking water and into a low-earth orbit. I think everybody agrees with that.
09-29-2025, 02:03 PM
THEsocalledfan

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by NI4NI

This is the camp I am in. I'm not breathing any sigh of relief until Oct 25. Also keeping an eye on Tarleton & MSU until proven otherwise.

I think the bigger gap with Tarleton and MSU is likely real, so I'm less worried about those teams. I suspect SDSU would have beaten MSU more soundly in Brookings. Granted, I watched the entire game and wasn't overly impressed with either team.
09-29-2025, 02:18 PM
NI4NI

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by tony

I agree with that - NDSU shouldn't be anchored to them, but if an FBS conferences wants the Montana schools along with NDSU then so be it. One thing is certain: There is no scenario where UND going FBS, with or without NDSU, makes sense to anybody with even the most tenuous grasp on reality. Tiny stadium, pathetic fan base, the TV ratings of a 3am informercial in the third biggest market in ND at an institution for whom football is an afterthought and would still be D2 if they so desperately didn't need NDSU to have the slightest relevance... that's the reality of UND football.

There is not a single metric in which the Montana schools don't blow UND out of the freaking water and into a low-earth orbit. I think everybody agrees with that.

Some truth in all that, but their on field product consistently proves to be better that many FBS programs.
09-29-2025, 02:20 PM
NI4NI

Re: 2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

I think the bigger gap with Tarleton and MSU is likely real, so I'm less worried about those teams. I suspect SDSU would have beaten MSU more soundly in Brookings. Granted, I watched the entire game and wasn't overly impressed with either team.

Agreed. I'm just saying I am 'cautiously optimistic'. Barring a shitting of the bed, we run the table all the way through Nashville.

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