Even when we're supposed to, we don't...….. so don't jinx us.
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NDSU regular season record:
12-0 55.8% +14.7%
11-1 36.9%... -4.7%
10-2. 6.8%... -7.9%
9-3... 0.5%... -1.9%
8-4... 0.02%.. -0.2%
7-5... 0.0002%
6-6... 0.000001%
5-7... 0.0000000003%
opponent chance spread
v. UNI... 92.5% -19.5 +4.0% -3.0
v. Mo St 99.8% -39.0 +0.1% -2.0
@ SDSU 70.4%. -7.0. +3.5% -1.0
@ YSU.. 91.2% -18.5 +5.7% -4.0
v. W Ill. 99.9%. -43.0 +0.3% -6.5
v. USD.. 97.7% -27.0 +0.4% -0.5
v. S Ill.. 96.5% -24.5 +1.8% -2.5
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5) -1 from last week (YSU 7)
Big Sky: 2 (Montana 4, Weber 6) -1 from last week (EWU 8)
Colonial: 2 (JMU 3, Villanova 8) +1 from last week (Villanova)
Southern: 1 (Furman 7) +1 from last week
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, Sac St, EWU, UND), changes: UND in Id St out
Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
Colonial: 2 (Towson)
Southland: 1 (SHSU) Nicholls, changes: Nicholls in C Ark out
Last 4 in:
Mo Valley (Ill St)
Southland (SHSU)
Mo Valley (USD)
Big Sky (UND)
First 4 out:
Colonial (Delaware)
Colonial (Stony Brook)
Southern (Wofford)
Big Sky (Id St)
Top 25 per Sagarin; NDSU made a move back toward toward the top 30 of all college football. Mo Valley looking good!
33 North Dakota State AA = 77.38 5 0 49.27( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.40 35 | 77.95 32 | 77.13 36 MISSOURI VALLEY
76 South Dakota State AA = 67.55 4 1 40.06( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.05 80 | 67.96 73 | 66.42 80 MISSOURI VALLEY
82 James Madison AA = 66.12 5 1 45.28( 186) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.87 85 | 66.05 82 | 66.98 77 COLONIAL
84 Montana AA = 65.65 5 1 51.29( 156) 0 1 | 0 1 | 66.08 84 | 64.68 85 | 69.84 65 BIG SKY
98 Northern Iowa AA = 60.45 3 2 54.98( 138) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.90 101 | 60.85 97 | 59.49 106 MISSOURI VALLEY
107 Weber State AA = 58.73 3 2 56.57( 124) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.15 110 | 58.67 110 | 60.81 97 BIG SKY
109 Furman AA = 58.45 4 2 45.81( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.31 103 | 57.49 117 | 60.58 98 SOUTHERN
113 Princeton AA = 58.22 3 0 27.49( 254) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.92 112 | 58.27 113 | 58.49 109 IVY LEAGUE
115 Villanova AA = 57.69 6 0 41.07( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.12 123 | 57.94 115 | 61.68 93 COLONIAL
122 Youngstown State AA = 56.43 4 1 39.29( 224) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.25 121 | 56.45 122 | 56.50 125 MISSOURI VALLEY
123 Dartmouth AA = 56.33 3 0 33.12( 249) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.73 125 | 56.44 123 | 57.41 118 IVY LEAGUE
126 Towson AA = 55.74 3 2 50.52( 158) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.88 129 | 56.16 125 | 55.86 127 COLONIAL
127 Montana State AA = 55.49 5 1 45.15( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.18 135 | 56.35 124 | 58.46 110 BIG SKY
128 UC Davis AA = 55.40 2 4 59.19( 114) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.00 118 | 54.67 130 | 53.20 133 BIG SKY
129 Kennesaw State AA = 55.36 4 1 44.28( 198) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.37 120 | 54.47 131 | 56.40 126 BIG SOUTH
130 Nicholls State AA = 55.26 3 2 51.98( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.42 131 | 55.42 128 | 56.90 121 SOUTHLAND
132 Sacramento State AA = 54.70 3 2 61.20( 100) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.27 109 | 51.61 143 | 59.61 104 BIG SKY
134 Eastern Washington AA = 53.71 2 4 55.59( 136) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.50 130 | 53.56 135 | 51.00 145 BIG SKY
135 Illinois State AA = 53.66 3 2 45.38( 184) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.11 144 | 55.33 129 | 52.36 137 MISSOURI VALLEY
137 Sam Houston State AA = 53.16 4 2 46.69( 176) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.93 132 | 52.40 140 | 54.28 130 SOUTHLAND
138 South Dakota AA = 52.82 2 3 49.79( 162) 0 1 | 0 1 | 52.68 137 | 52.85 138 | 52.60 135 MISSOURI VALLEY
140 Central Arkansas AA = 52.04 3 2 55.71( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.47 147 | 52.94 137 | 51.92 141 SOUTHLAND
142 Yale AA = 51.95 3 0 35.23( 243) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.26 149 | 52.70 139 | 53.15 134 IVY LEAGUE
144 North Dakota AA = 51.72 3 2 53.52( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.27 140 | 51.25 145 | 51.92 140 BIG SKY
145 Delaware AA = 51.52 3 2 49.42( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.92 151 | 52.34 141 | 51.89 142 COLONIAL
#ColonialSpeed
#ColonialPower
#ColonialQualityLosses
#ColonialWonTheGameInTheTrenches
#JustMailTheFuckinTrophyToJMUAlready
Can someone explain why SDSU not getting more love in the polls? To me, they should be #2 at this point. I also think Montana should be #3 in the polls.....
Second Stanza for The Yellow and The Green-
Seems they need to pump up JMU to compensate form something. NDSU doesn't need to, we know we're good.Quote:
Here in autumn throng the nations,
Just to gather in the spoil,
Throng on freight-cars from the cities,
Some to feast and some to toil,
Then the yellow grain flows eastward
And the yellow gold flows back;
Barren cities boast their plenty
And the prairies know no lack.
JMU- "We're great, we play great teams, we won a Natty two years ago.......etc etc etc"
NDSU- stands in front of our 15 national championship trophies whilst a mic lays on the ground. Didn't do a mic drop, never even picked it up!