No. All they consider are opponent, location, score and how recent the result is.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
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No. All they consider are opponent, location, score and how recent the result is.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
How many points is Carson worth?
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More than anyone else on the roster but probably less than is commonly believed.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Attachment 6379Attachment 6380
Next two weeks are going to tell the tale for Jax St.
If JSU drops one and assuming UTC loses to Florida State, how does that affect each of them? Both drop considerably? Probably a better question to ask in a non-sagarin threadQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
UTC v. FSU I think is going to be all about how close they can keep it whether you're talking about their Sagarin rating or their position in the polls. Sagarin has that at 26 points at the moment. If they keep it closer than that, all else equal, their rating would tend to improve. If they get thumped it would tend to go down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Similarly Jacksonville State is favored by 9 and 8.5 the next two weeks. If they win by less than that it'll put downward pressure on their rating. More impressive showings would tend to push their rating up. People tend to do the same sort of thing with the eye test, but are prone to overreact to recent events. Of course people also know when a team's star quarterback is out for the year with an ankle injury while, at least this computer model is completely ignorant of those sorts of facts.
Better late than never?
Sagarin's 2015 Week 10 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
70 North Dakota State 68.76
133 Montana 53.15 +12.90 -3.00 -15.90
170 Weber State 44.99 +26.48 +27.00 +0.52
176 North Dakota 43.16 +28.31 +25.00 -3.31
83 South Dakota State 65.38 +0.67 +21.00 +20.33
94 Northern Iowa 62.03 +9.44 +3.00 -6.44
150 South Dakota 50.78 +20.69 -3.00 -23.69
136 Indiana State 52.81 +13.24 +14.00 +0.76
114 Southern Illinois 58.03 +8.02
117 Western Illinois 57.74 +13.73
108 Youngstown State 59.16 +6.89
213 Missouri State 35.26 +36.21
67 Illinois State 69.09
Total Diff: -27.73
Home Field 2.71
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 67 69.09 Illinois State
2 70 68.76 North Dakota State
3 83 65.38 South Dakota State
4 85 64.53 Harvard
5 90 62.61 Jacksonville State
6 94 62.03 Northern Iowa
7 95 61.69 Chattanooga
8 97 61.49 James Madison
9 99 60.38 Coastal Carolina
10 103 59.53 William & Mary
11 104 59.52 Southern Utah
12 106 59.34 Portland State
13 108 59.16 Youngstown State
14 109 59.09 Sam Houston State
15 110 59.05 McNeese State
16 114 58.03 Southern Illinois
17 115 57.85 Richmond
18 117 57.74 Western Illinois
19 118 57.65 Eastern Washington
20 120 57.06 Dartmouth
21 122 56.55 Eastern Kentucky
22 123 56.17 The Citadel
23 128 53.70 Montana State
24 133 53.15 Montana
25 135 52.87 Charleston Southern
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.07 9
2 SEC 78.81 14
3 PAC-12 75.96 11
4 ACC 75.85 12
5 BIG TEN 75.61 10
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.50 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.92 7
8 MWC 60.58 4
9 MAC 59.42 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.77 2
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.94 3
12 SUN BELT 54.76 3
13 BIG SKY 47.88 1
14 COLONIAL 46.77 1
15 SOUTHERN 46.40 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.91 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 44.02 1
18 SOUTHLAND 41.35 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.39 1
20 PATRIOT 35.33 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.01 1
22 MID-EASTERN 31.60 1
23 SWAC 27.42 1
24 PIONEER 24.40 1
NDSU rated higher than ISUr again.
Top 3 FCS Sagarin Rankings thru 10/31/15:
66 NDSU
73 Illinois State
81 SDSU
Eight games in and five have been to prediction(<1score), while three have been outliers(>2scores). The Valley still owns the top-25, with 80% of the conference on the list, and taking just about one-third of the top-25 spots.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 11 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
66 North Dakota State 69.00
132 Montana 52.76 +13.46 -3.00 -16.46
168 Weber State 45.64 +26.14 +27.00 +0.86
172 North Dakota 45.10 +26.68 +25.00 -1.68
81 South Dakota State 66.26 -0.04 +21.00 +21.04
96 Northern Iowa 62.29 +9.49 +3.00 -6.49
150 South Dakota 50.41 +21.37 -3.00 -24.37
128 Indiana State 53.70 +12.52 +14.00 +1.48
113 Southern Illinois 58.12 +8.10 +6.00 -2.10
118 Western Illinois 56.52 +15.26
106 Youngstown State 59.76 +6.46
224 Missouri State 32.88 +38.90
73 Illinois State 67.80
Total Diff: -27.72
Home Field 2.78
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 66 69.00 North Dakota State
2 73 67.80 Illinois State
3 81 66.26 South Dakota State
4 85 65.25 Jacksonville State
5 86 64.76 Harvard
6 91 63.04 Chattanooga
7 96 62.29 Northern Iowa
8 99 61.61 Portland State
9 100 61.37 James Madison
10 101 61.27 Southern Utah
11 104 60.36 William & Mary
12 106 59.76 Youngstown State
13 108 59.20 Sam Houston State
14 109 58.81 Dartmouth
15 110 58.24 McNeese State
16 112 58.14 Coastal Carolina
17 113 58.12 Southern Illinois
18 117 56.61 Richmond
19 118 56.52 Western Illinois
20 120 56.14 Eastern Washington
21 122 55.82 The Citadel
22 124 55.01 Charleston Southern
23 127 53.95 Eastern Kentucky
24 128 53.70 Indiana State
25 132 52.76 Montana
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 79.56 10
2 SEC 77.96 13
3 PAC-12 75.56 11
4 ACC 75.82 11
5 BIG TEN 75.16 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.25 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.43 6
8 MWC 60.67 4
9 MAC 59.68 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.76 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.34 3
12 SUN BELT 54.62 3
13 BIG SKY 48.06 1
14 COLONIAL 46.51 1
15 SOUTHERN 46.55 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.99 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 44.35 1
18 SOUTHLAND 41.92 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.84 1
20 PATRIOT 35.74 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.53 1
22 MID-EASTERN 31.75 1
23 SWAC 27.29 1
24 PIONEER 24.60 1