With what has gone on with realignment over the last 20 years it is near impossible to predict what it will be like 7 years from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
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With what has gone on with realignment over the last 20 years it is near impossible to predict what it will be like 7 years from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
FIFYQuote:
Originally Posted by ringthebells
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https://media.tenor.com/t9V2jH-4vhwAAAAM/tears.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by ringthebells
Quote:
Originally Posted by KSBisonFan
This pretty much mirrors my prior thoughts. A split is all but inevitable, and when it occurs, the resulting reorg is very likely to open the door for us to the 2nd tier. The writing has been on the wall a while, and pretty obvious to most watching FBS changes.Quote:
But it didn't make sense for everybody in the Mountain West. And that's why there wasn't an opportunity for them to join. But in the long run, I think there will be a change. And I think there will be a division that is created where the top 40-ish schools separate. And they, in my opinion, they'll collectively bargain with student-athletes. They will be employees, and those are budgets in the $250-300 million range. Then the rest of us will reconfigure where we are, and I wouldn't be surprised if that allowed for the Dakotas and the Montana schools to make some decisions.”
UNLV did get a PAC invite, they declined. Air Force was definitely a target but I haven't seen if they were officially offered. I suspect they were and declined, perhaps after giving a soft yes. The fact that the PAC was one short of the FBS minimum 8 football teams after the invites is really weird. Then they waited until the last possible day to invite Texas St, who was definitely not their preferred choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
Boise St might be the biggest loser. They had an unequal bonus share in the MWC. The new PAC deal looks to be pretty bad. Almost certainly higher than they had in the MWC, but probably only $1-2M/yr more. That'll take forever to pay the exit fees.
I think the informal split has happened in the last few months, with the P4 moving to a 9 game conference schedule, and the CFP prioritizing strength of schedule. The SEC also issuing OOC scheduling parameters basically limiting G6 FCS games consolidates everything to the P4. The other P4’s will follow the SEC and pay games for the G6 are going to get squeezed out. Those dollars are going to increase players spending and destination neutral site games which media partners will love, best players best leagues every week of the season, crossover matchups early in the season all in the same few media deals.
Where I differ from MWC on his post above is on the timeline for the PAC 12 | MWC. The 5th best Conference Champion CFP slot is basically the Cinderella story going forward and as soon as Memphis, Tulane, and UNLV figure out the P4 window is closed chasing Cinderella in the PAC12 is by far the best position. Add them you have access to the few remaining pay games and the AQ.
There might be some movement with the top of the ACC between the BIG10 and SEC but that just makes the ACC a similar to the PAC12.
Seems kind of pointless to mess with antitrust stuff by blowing everything up when the money and rules are going to get consolidated into 75% of what you want anyway.
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If those schools wish to move to the Pac they will need to hurry. Both the Pac and the MW media deals are coming out soon. Once the Grant of Rights things lock in it is very difficult to move. The AAC requires 27 months notice to leave. Anything is possible but it wouldn't be cheap.
1) waiting 27 months isn't as big a deal as previously for PAC now that they have 8 members.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
2) precedent shows that this time period frequently gets reduced along with exit fees during departure negotiations.
3) GoR lockins haven't been faring well when contested. ACC restructured theirs in a favorable way for members that want to depart in a few years under legal pressure. They were believed to have had one of the strongest GoRs, and it showed some cracks and risk of crumbling.
Pretty much agree with all of this except the last sentence.Quote:
Originally Posted by EP NDSU Fan
P4 will decide at some point, possibly soon that they want that last 25% too. They now have acquired legislative power in NCAA to create the new division they previously requested. All that is needed is to make the barrier a finance based one that only P4 can afford. That allows them to sidestep the antitrust laws most likely if it is well crafted. They will just adopt standards with costs that majority or all of G6 can't make work.
Agreed but UNLV, Tulane, and Memphis seem like outliers in the G6. Their combination of market size, P4 overlap, and cash doesn’t exist with other G6 schools. Certainly Tulane and Memphis could write the check whenever. UNLV is tricky with there debt and signing that fresh GOR, but the location is so juicy it could be something the PAC could support through financial assistance. I’m also curious if the new PAC deal will have any prorata carve outs | escalators like the SEC deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
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