I just showed how it doesn't mean shit.... football only.
nice strawman
Printable View
Thinking about your list more, I think many would like to see 1 or 2 happen. Myself included. It would re-align college football to group appropriate schools together and I think would be great for lots of reasons. I think a lot of us leave that off of our lists because it is such a crapshoot if/when/what will happen. I know those types of scenarios have been talked about by so many but I just don't know that it will actually occur. Even if it would be good for so many of the G5, I think it's a hard sell because no matter how you package it to them it would feel like a step down. It could happen but I think it will be by force and not because of free will. That means that the P5 and/or the NCAA will need to force it to happen. Not sure if they have the desire or a great enough incentive to do that. Maybe I'm wrong. The rest of your list is very similar to my feelings, you just have the NCAA realignment hopes at the top, which I would likely put at the top too.
I don't necessarily agree with the WAC potential but hey, if it presents a path to FBS I would be willing to explore it. I just see much of the current WAC as less than the current CUSA and those institutions are quite a ways from being FBS ready. It also means that we are staying in the FCS for what I believe is probably 8-10 more years minimum.
I would also add that I don't think enrollment factors in quite as much as you suggest. For a lot of G5 schools it does matter because the students and alumni are essentially the only pool to pull fans and viewers from. With NDSU being the largest University in the state and with our culture of success we have the benefit of pulling a larger percentage of fans/donors/viewers from the general population and don't need to rely so heavily on just the students and alumni. It tips the scales a bit and offsets the lower enrollment. Hell, ISUr and Missouri State both have much larger enrollments than NDSU does yet we dwarf them in attendance, viewership, donations, merchandise sales, etc. Our fan engagement can and does provide some offset for our lower enrollment figures. However, that's why I've been so focused on what I percieve to be a drop in fan engagement over the past 5 years. If it continues it will erode away one of our greatest assets as an Athletic Department.
Thanks for sharing your list. I think it gave me some things to think about differently.
WAC has some potential, though I'd put it below MAC.
I think a lot of people are still thinking of the old CUSA, or even the current one, which soon won't exist.
AAC and SBC took almost all their decent programs outside WKU/MTSU. 9 schools are leaving.
What you are left with from CUSA are NMSU, UTEP, FIU, MTSU, WKU.
SHSU is floundering about with their transition, I don't see them being a strong FBS school anytime soon.
JSU is pretty meh to me also.
WKU/MTSU almost went MAC, but MTSU held out because of their own financial issues, and wants to collect other school exit fees before leaving. They supposedly want the AAC in a year or two. WKU has still been talking to MAC, and has also been rumored as a possibility for SBC.
The media deal for CUSA is garbage ... we're talking FloSports, Facebook streams, and CUSA streaming.
It's no better than the CAA or MEAC has, maybe worse because its spread all over the place, and you have to pay multiple streaming services instead of one.
They won't exist to most television viewers. The networks simply don't want them at any price.
MAC has a decent ESPN deal, and their games get real viewers with MACtion.
I don't disagree that CUSA is not an attractive conference. Where I disagree is with the WAC. What about the current WAC provides potential for future FBS possibilities? Just curious cause I really struggle to see it. The only potential I see is they're very Texas centric which gives them access to a football hotbed for fans, recruits and the like. However, there are also so many FBS schools playing in Texas already that I don't think most of the Texas WAC schools even register on the college football radar.
3 teams reportedly leaving the AAC for Big 12.
You should change your name to Rip Van Winkle. All that was a done deal months ago. Releasing signed papers to the public is just a formality at this point.
As for the WAC, there are very preliminary talks between WAC, ASUN, and Big South about swapping teams around with WAC taking everyone with FBS ambitions. There's a lot of unstable FCS conferences at the moment, some too big and some too small. There's tons of ways this could shake out but the WAC does have some desire to return to FBS with whoever it takes to get there.
The deals were already official. The reason its hitting the news again is they are close to formalizing their exit dates/fees with existing conferences.
It looks like they will all move June 2023 timeframe for the fall 2023 season.
The 4 new SBC schools already moved this year after court fights/settlement with CUSA.
Texas/OU is the last piece that the dates aren't known. It sounds like B12 is angling for an improved media deal to release them from the GoR early.
A very short list indeed, and I expect it will be even shorter after NCAA constructional reform, possibly because of the whole FBS leaving the NCAA and establishing firm and stringent criteria for inclusion. I seriously doubt the WAC makes the cut and CUSA has to be sweating right now.
"constitutional" ... damn autofill. I originally thought the FBS would stay, but the longer the reform drags on (see DBs recent comments), the more likely the FBS just leaves. Solves several problems by decoupling from everything else (see hoops).
The question then is where should NDSU FB be? I expect it would become very difficult to move up once they split off. The vast majority of the G5 will do everything they can to tag along (see $$). I also don't believe the other Dakota schools have any FBS aspirations, even if their fans might, so you'll have to choose between leaving your old 'rivals' or being stuck permanently in what will be the new defacto D2, assuming it plays out that way. NCAA might still pull off a miracle ..
No team "joins" a conference.
A conference invites a team that they believe adds value* to the overall group.
*Value is a broad term encompassing sports performance, academic reputation, and most importantly media (money) potential.
C-USA only makes sense from one perspective: Use that as the path to the "golden ticket" (FBS initiation). But C-USA has better options in-footprint already.
That said, I believe the smarter path would be to create "C-USA North Division" for them. It gets some northern schools the golden ticket; it gets C-USA membership numbers for a while, in case the next exodus hits them.
"C-USA North Division" would effectively be "Great West 2.0: the FBS edition".
15k is rolling 3 years. EMU for instance had a neutral game at Ford field one year with MSU? with 65,000 fans?
another time a car dealer or donor paid $20,000 tickets at $1 to get 20,000 in .
Yes, at least right now you can buy your "attendance" numbers if needed. Quite a few teams openly cheat the system.
There's no requirement to actually have 15,000 fans there as long as that many tickets are sold. Teams count sold tickets as "attendance"
MAC has a lot of empty stadiums. It's one of the things that gives me pause about joining that conference.
Regardless of published numbers, I'd bet MVFC teams often have more real fans in seats than MAC does.
This is probably what SHSU will also do to qualify for FBS.
The better conferences actually have 15k+ butts in seats, and they get better media deals also.
Who really wants to watch a game with an empty stadium?
The rule:
20.9.9.3 Football-Attendance Requirements. [FBS]
Once every two years on a rolling basis, the institution shall average at least 15,000 in actual or paid attendance for all home football games. (Revised: 4/25/02 effective 8/1/04, 4/28/05 effective 8/1/05)
20.9.9.3.1 Counting Attendance. [FBS]
20.9.9.3.1.1 Actual Attendance. [FBS]
For purposes of computing actual attendance figures, an individual may be counted if any one of the following conditions applies: (Revised: 4/25/02 effective 8/1/04, 4/28/05 effective 8/1/05)
(a) Attendees are issued tickets that are collected on admission to the game and retained;
(b) Attendees enter through and are counted by a turnstile that is monitored by a representative of the department of athletics who verifies in writing the accuracy of the count on a per-game basis; or
(c) Attendees enter through a gate at which a representative of the department of athletics counts them individually with a manual counter, and the representative provides a written statement verifying the accuracy of the count on a per-game basis.
20.9.9.3.1.2 Paid Attendance. [FBS]
For purposes of computing paid attendance figures, tickets must be soldfor at least one-third of the highest regular established ticket price as established prior to the season, regardless ofwhether they are used for admission. Tickets sold at less than one-third of the highest regular established price maybe counted as paid attendance only if they are used for admission. Student attendance may be counted as paid attendance if the student pays at least one-third of the highest regular established ticket price or, if the student actually attends the game and any one of the following conditions applies: (Adopted: 4/28/05 effective 8/1/05)
(a) The student paid an athletics fee;
(b) The student paid an institutional fee of which a certain portion was allocated to the department of intercollegiate athletics; or
(c) The student paid no athletics fee, but the institution allocated to the department of intercollegiate athletics a certain portion of tuition income or general operating funds as the equivalent of a student athletics fee.
20.9.9.3.1.2.1 Student Attendance. [FBS]
Student attendance must be verified through one of the following methods: (Adopted: 4/28/05 effective 8/1/05)
(a) Such students are issued tickets that are collected on admission to the game and retained;
(b) Such students enter through and are counted by a turnstile (which is not used by others in attendance) that is monitored by a representative of the department of athletics who verifies in writing the accuracy of the count on a per-game basis; or
(c) Such students enter through a gate (that is not used by others in attendance) at which a representative of the department of athletics counts them individually with a manual counter, and the representative provides a written statement verifying the accuracy of the count on a per-game basis.
20.9.9.3.1.2.1.1 Noncounted Students. [FBS]
Student-athletes and cheerleaders scheduled by the institution to be at the game and students performing services at the stadium (e.g., concessionaires, ticket takers, parking-lot attendants, ushers, grounds keepers) shall not be counted toward meeting the attendance requirements. (Adopted: 4/28/05 effective 8/1/05)
20.9.9.3.1.2.2 Exchange of Tickets With Opponent. [FBS]
For an institution to meet the Football Bowl Subdivision attendance requirements, tickets for a football contest obtained by an institution through an exchange agreement or a purchase agreement with another institution may be used only if sold for at least one-third of the highest regular established ticket price and are used to attend the game. (Adopted: 4/28/05 effective 8/1/05, Revised: 12/15/06)
I believe it's EMU that has an alumni fund that "buys" tickets at 1/3 price (see above) to make sure the season average requirement is met every other year.
https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2013/11/...ttendance.aspx
Under NCAA rules, these FBS schools have not met 15k attendance the last 2 non-covid years and should be under sanction.
Ball State
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Kent State
UMass
Northern Illinois
Of these, all 3 that were bowl eligible got a bowl in 2019 despite the alleged post season ban.
Main point is the rules don't matter.
The "average attendance rule" I can argue either way:
Pro: as some have said, it's a measure for program support
Con: if the school can support the program, isn't some arbitrary attendance minimum potentially taking opportunity from student-athletes ... and we all know the NCAA is all about the student-athlete experience :biggrin:
These are just the ones that didn't buy enough seats, since "paid" attendance is what many G5 schools are reporting.
Wish they would enforce the rule with actual, butts in seats attendance that is audited.
A bunch of schools would be forced to move down, and it would create openings for others that meet the criteria.
There are at least 9 FCS schools that exceed 15k, and those numbers generally aren't fudged.
I wouldn't mind seeing a few MAC schools getting dropped, and Montana/MVFC schools replacing them.
Better yet, maybe we could replace San Diego St in the MWC, they averaged 10,675 in 2021.
Yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock in the covid years' attendance either. Hawaii actually had their first sell-out in program history in 2021, but that's a lot less impressive when you hear Aloha Stadium was condemned and they're playing on the women's soccer field with temporary bleachers for a few thousand.
I have been to games at Aloha stadium over the years and the place was always packed..Maybe no complete 50 thousand fans sell outs but close..
Their new stadium is probably going to be around 35 thousand seats..
By the by..Watching a football game in Hawaii, wearing tee shirts and shorts in the winter, is absolutely swell on every level..
Last trip in Frisco for JMU 2 I stopped at a Wally World when we checked in to out house. I was wearing shorts and a T shirt. Lady stops me in the parking lot while I am walking in and asked if I was alright since I was wearing what I was wearing. Told her I'm from ND and I am good.
Hahahaahaha!!!! Ooops!!!!