Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

I know you've explained this before, but can you refresh my memory why you add the kicker for the bye? Is that something that you've observed in the Sagarin numbers, even though he doesn't explicitly spell out?

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It's not in the Sagarin numbers. It's an ad hoc adjustment that I make on top based on the value of a bye week in the NFL.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

I think you are misreading that. He is showing the are the most likely other team to win the title, not that they are the next best team since much of this has to do with path/matchups.

Correct me if wrong, Audit.

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Jacksonville State is the next most likely to win the title, not necessarily the next best team. It's path dependent.

Here are the raw Sagarin ratings for all the playoff teams in rank order:

77.91 #2 North Dakota State
70.89 Northern Iowa
69.88 #5 Illinois State
69.44 #3 Jacksonville State
68.30 South Dakota State
65.77 #1 New Hampshire
65.17 #8 Chattanooga
63.90 #4 Eastern Washington
63.70 #7 Coastal Carolina
63.66 #6 Villanova
63.20 SE Louisiana
61.34 Sam Houston State
60.74 Indiana State
59.82 Liberty
58.69 Fordham
57.93 Richmond
57.85 Montana
56.42 James Madison
54.62 Stephen F. Austin
54.59 Eastern Kentucky
53.49 Montana State
50.10 Sacred Heart
40.12 Morgan State
39.60 San Diego

If you flop UNH and NDSU in the bracket NDSU's chances of making the final increase from 68.6% to 71.9% while UNH decreases from 28.8% to 24.5%.

At least by that measure Sagarin doesn't believe that we got the easy side of the bracket.

Of course it looks like most of the issue is playing SDSU in round 2, which likely would have persisted because regionalization. Boo.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

If you flop UNH and NDSU in the bracket NDSU's chances of making the final increase from 68.6% to 71.9% while UNH decreases from 28.8% to 24.5%.

At least by that measure Sagarin doesn't believe that we got the easy side of the bracket.

Of course it looks like most of the issue is playing SDSU in round 2, which likely would have persisted because regionalization. Boo.

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Yes, that is indeed the case. If we flip the whole pod of 3 teams rather than just the ranked ones:

NDSU's chances of reaching the final decrease from 68.6% to 65.7% while UNH goes from 28.8% to 31.8%.

I don't know if Indiana State can go on the road and win 3 against Eastern Kentucky, Chattanooga and New Hampshire but the rest of a scenario where the MVFC goes 12-4 with all 4 losses to MVFC teams is fairly plausible.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Jacksonville State is the next most likely to win the title, not necessarily the next best team. It's path dependent.

Here are the raw Sagarin ratings for all the playoff teams in rank order:

77.91 #2 North Dakota State
70.89 Northern Iowa
69.88 #5 Illinois State
69.44 #3 Jacksonville State
68.30 South Dakota State
65.77 #1 New Hampshire
65.17 #8 Chattanooga
63.90 #4 Eastern Washington
63.70 #7 Coastal Carolina
63.66 #6 Villanova
63.20 SE Louisiana
61.34 Sam Houston State
60.74 Indiana State
59.82 Liberty
58.69 Fordham
57.93 Richmond
57.85 Montana
56.42 James Madison
54.62 Stephen F. Austin
54.59 Eastern Kentucky
53.49 Montana State
50.10 Sacred Heart
40.12 Morgan State
39.60 San Diego

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The playoff bracket if regionalization wasn't in play (and they went with Sagarin #s).
Montana @ Richmond - winner @ #1 NDSU
San Diego @ Coastal Carolina - winner @ #8 Eastern Washington
EKU @ ISUb - winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Montana St @ SHSU - winner @ #5 SDSU
SFA @ Liberty - winner @ #3 ISUr
Sacred Heart @ SELA - winner @ #6 New Hampshire
Morgan St @ Villanova - winner @ #7 Chattanooga
JMU @ Fordham - winner @ #2 Northern Iowa

Not sure I like that second round pairing any better, but regionalization blows!

Whatever method it is that the selection committee is using, it still puzzles me as to why New Hampshire would be the #1 seed. There's gotta be some bias involved in that decision.

I wish they would use the Sagarin rankings, you can tell just by looking at them that it's a good methodology he uses, very objective.

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Originally Posted by LongLostAlum

Whatever method it is that the selection committee is using, it still puzzles me as to why New Hampshire would be the #1 seed. There's gotta be some bias involved in that decision.

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#1 v #2 is meaningless so they could have just as well flipped a coin. I'm not sure that New Hampshire would have gotten the nod if they were in a battle over the #2 seed because they have only one win over a playoff team and played a pitiful non-conference schedule.

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Originally Posted by tony

#1 v #2 is meaningless so they could have just as well flipped a coin. I'm not sure that New Hampshire would have gotten the nod if they were in a battle over the #2 seed because they have only one win over a playoff team and played a pitiful non-conference schedule.

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Although this is just in my world, but I'd like to believe they decided to give them the 1 seed to make everyone happy and then gave us the better bracket because we deserved it.

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Originally Posted by LongLostAlum

Whatever method it is that the selection committee is using, it still puzzles me as to why New Hampshire would be the #1 seed. There's gotta be some bias involved in that decision.

I wish they would use the Sagarin rankings, you can tell just by looking at them that it's a good methodology he uses, very objective.

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I may disagree with where they put them, but the Committee's excuse/reason whatever you want to call it, I can understand it. Basically because UNH's loss was early and to an FBS they chose them over NDSU because it was an FCS loss close to the end of the season. In the end it doesn't effect us at all, but you are correct there are bias's invovled in the discussion. Is it intentional, no, but there are always bias's. Thats why they have the number they have on the committee. I still think the bigger problem with the playoff is the regionalization/bus trip rule than what rankings they use.