ORLY.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
When's the last time a team scored negative points?
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ORLY.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
When's the last time a team scored negative points?
Since the model is designed to predict the margin of victory I'm not sure that's relevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
A neighbor of ours attended NDSU in the early 1970's. Said his Organic Chem tests were all true and false. +3 points for a correct answer, -6 for an incorrect, and +1 if you wrote "I don't know." He actually received a negative score on his first test. Ouch.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
NDSU may have scored negative points against UN_ in a cold, windy day, overcast day game at Dakotah Field in 1973(?). Worst game I ever saw the Bison play.
May be 75.Quote:
Originally Posted by VirginiaBison
Right, but the entire bell curve cannot be achieved, since anything to the left of a certain point, that represents zero points for the loser, is chopped off. Or am I all wet?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Not entirely all wet, no, the bell curve doesn't technically ever reach the zero bound so it runs out to infinity in both directions yielding absurdly large margins at either end that would imply not impossibly low scores for the losing team but impossibly high ones for the winning team, but those results also typically come with absurdly low probability.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
Again, we're not modeling team scores here we're modeling the margin of victory, so a three standard deviation event that's not a 42 point win, it's a win or loss by 42 points more or less than expected. Lots and lots of teams win by 42 points during the course of a season but we'd only expect three or four events a year where the margin of victory was 42 points different from the model's expectation.
Additionally, we know that we're using a continuous function to model results that can only occur in integers, but the normal distribution has some very nice features, like the central limit theorem, so when it's a good fit for the data, and it is in this case, you can use it.
In any event, it's a model, a mere approximation of reality, and some may say that given the relatively large standard deviation, it's not even a particularly good approximation of reality. The challenge then is to design a better one.
You might be right that the entire bell curve cannot be achieved, but I don't think the zero is the limiting factor in this situation. I think the limiting factor would be the maximum number of points a team could theoretically score in a game. I'm not sure what that maximum theoretical number is though, if there even is one. If there is a way for a team to score back to back without any time running off the clock, then I suppose the maximum margin of victory would be infinity. Then maybe the entire bell curve would be achieved? I'm not sure how that works.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
Blutarsky laughs in your neighbor's general direction.Quote:
Originally Posted by cbline
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/VrgVFPO_OJc/hqdefault.jpghttp://futuresight.dewlines.org/file.../02/Bluto1.jpg
I'm not sure if Hammersmith is still on hiatus, as I think I've seen him still on here a bit, but I figured I'd post this just in case. I altered the format slightly, but I believe I am still showing all the same information that he had been showing, plus a few extra bits that I thought would be interesting. I created some formulas in Excel to extract the information, and this format was easier to produce. I'm open to any feedback anyone may have, including reverting to the familiar way that Hammersmith had been posting.
Not unexpectedly, we dropped a few points due to underperforming against Sagarin's prediction. UNI jumped up a few points as well. Surprisingly, Western Illinois just made the top 25.
Sagarin's Week 12 Predictions
Note that I added the strength of schedule (SOS) rating and rank, as well as conference affiliation below. It is kind of fun to see all those MVFC teams in the top 25.Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
38 North Dakota State 76.40
80 Iowa State 66.19 +7.06 +20.00 +12.94
206 Weber State 41.16 +32.09 +17.00 -15.09
232 Incarnate Word 29.11 +50.44 +58.00 +7.56
135 Montana 55.24 +24.31 +12.00 -12.31
127 Western Illinois 56.04 +17.21 +7.00 -10.21
95 Southern Illinois 62.75 +16.80 +28.00 +11.20
104 Indiana State 61.12 +18.43 +17.00 -1.43
174 South Dakota 47.62 +25.63 +40.00 +14.37
81 South Dakota State 66.11 +13.44 +20.00 +6.56
66 Northern Iowa 69.56 +3.69 -20.00 -23.69
120 Missouri State 58.29 +14.96
102 Youngstown State 61.63 +17.92
62 Illinois State 70.13
Total Diff: -10.10
Home Field 3.15
Sagarin FCS Top-25
Code:
Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 38 76.40 North Dakota State 56.50 133 Missouri Valley
2 58 71.46 Jacksonville State 50.26 175 Ohio Valley
3 62 70.13 Illinois State 55.41 136 Missouri Valley
4 66 69.56 Northern Iowa 59.75 116 Missouri Valley
5 77 66.49 New Hampshire 47.89 188 Colonial
6 81 66.11 South Dakota State 64.98 79 Missouri Valley
7 84 65.86 Chattanooga 52.83 156 Southern
8 85 65.68 Harvard 40.35 226 Ivy League
9 86 65.49 Coastal Carolina 44.57 204 Big South
10 88 64.90 Villanova 48.71 182 Colonial
11 95 62.75 Southern Illinois 59.14 122 Missouri Valley
12 99 62.24 SE Louisiana 46.81 195 Southland
13 100 62.18 Eastern Washington 50.77 168 Big Sky
14 102 61.63 Youngstown State 54.47 141 Missouri Valley
15 104 61.12 Indiana State 62.89 93 Missouri Valley
16 106 60.68 Fordham 41.86 219 Patriot
17 107 60.56 Sam Houston State 53.08 153 Southland
18 110 60.38 Liberty 51.31 165 Big South
19 111 60.37 Samford 50.69 170 Southern
20 115 59.44 Richmond 48.68 183 Colonial
21 117 58.62 McNeese State 47.38 192 Southland
22 120 58.29 Missouri State 60.04 110 Missouri Valley
23 121 58.12 Idaho State 54.21 143 Big Sky
24 124 57.47 Eastern Illinois 52.45 159 Ohio Valley
25 127 56.04 Western Illinois 63.14 91 Missouri Valley
I'm showing the conference rankings in one table, sorted by the conference rating (CentralMean). I am also showing the rating for the highest ranked team in each conference (ConfMax) and finally where NDSU would fall in each conference.
Conference Rankings
Code:
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank
P5 SEC 85.64 98.84 13
P5 BIG 12 78.98 93.20 6
P5 PAC-12 78.11 91.29 8
P5 BIG TEN 74.10 89.44 5
P5 ACC 74.07 87.43 7
NA I-A INDEPENDENTS 69.66 83.85 2
G5 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 63.99 74.05 1
G5 MWC 63.29 77.70 2
FCS MISSOURI VALLEY 63.02 76.40 1
G5 CONFERENCE USA 58.84 78.97 2
G5 MAC 57.29 67.43 1
G5 SUN BELT 55.38 70.37 1
FCS BIG SOUTH 50.13 65.49 1
FCS COLONIAL 49.60 66.49 1
FCS SOUTHERN 49.44 65.86 1
FCS SOUTHLAND 48.93 62.24 1
FCS BIG SKY 47.76 62.18 1
FCS OHIO VALLEY 47.47 71.46 1
FCS PATRIOT 45.03 60.68 1
FCS IVY LEAGUE 43.99 65.68 1
FCS NORTHEAST 42.92 54.39 1
FCS I-AA INDEPENDENTS 42.37 42.37 1
FCS MID-EASTERN 35.52 51.36 1
FCS SWAC 32.07 51.65 1
FCS PIONEER 28.58 45.97 1