A new and better FBS thread

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

How insane would it be if after years of being left out of the FBS discussion NDSU is suddenly wanted by two FBS conferences at the same time???

<ok now the BS is getting deep :D>

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Yeah don’t think it’ll happen, just trying to highlight the quagmire all parties are in. PAC much more likely to just let it ride for 12 months than panic-add the XDSUs.

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Originally Posted by NDSU92

Sure, but they left the MW in the first place to get away from those schools and now they’d need to take 10 total because the four that left no longer have a vote.

Going to be the same litigation that the PAC went through. Hard to prove the AAC and PAC didn’t collude in your scenario. They would absolutely have to collude to make it happen. Prisoner’s dilemma.

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This would be driven solely by the MW schools who wish to avoid exit fees. The AAC and the Pac would not have to be working together to make this happen. AFA has wanted to go to the AAC for years. UNLV is not tied to Nevada and will be added to the Pac, maybe as soon as this week.

That leaves just 5 full members of the MW and football only Hawaii.

Wyoming
New Mexico
USU
Nevada
SJSU

Say the Pac grabs 4 from the AAC who then backfills with Wyoming, New Mexico and maybe USU.

That leaves NV, SJSU and Hawaii. The departing schools vote to dissolve. Nobody has to collude to get to that point.

I think this may be the most likely outcome.

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Originally Posted by BigHorns

1) Where would those remaining members go? Some aren't wanted by PAC or AAC. They might lose both Air Force and UNLV, but probably not much more. Nevada could potentially go as a package deal with UNLV.

2) The remaining members are the ones that have to vote on who to add.

These things always get a little messy (see implosions and rebuild of CUSA and PAC). I don't know that they will make any decisions or official invites until its clear who is staying and who is leaving. At least that's been the pattern elsewhere.

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It's more about the conference avoiding dissolving imo.

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Originally Posted by TAILG8R

It's more about the conference avoiding dissolving imo.

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As both CUSA and PAC-2 demonstrated, it is extremely unlikely for a conference to dissolve unless there are homes for all the members. Just existing as a FBS conference carries a good bit of value. The remaining members will be better off rebuilding than trying to go Indy.

The only real risk at play is that all the “valuable” schools could be picked off, leaving a far lower media payout. That was really the whole motivation with the PAC rebuild/MWC split - the higher value teams won’t need to share their media payout with the lower valued teams. For the PAC, it was addition thru subtraction and why they didn’t want to just merge with MWC.

I feel like the MVFC schools that are also MVC basketball schools pushed to accept Murray St knowing they would lose a top 1-2 school in the future and proactively backfilled to prep for this scenario.

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Originally Posted by BigHorns

As both CUSA and PAC-2 demonstrated, it is extremely unlikely for a conference to dissolve unless there are homes for all the members. Just existing as a FBS conference carries a good bit of value. The remaining members will be better off rebuilding than trying to go Indy.

The only real risk at play is that all the “valuable” schools could be picked off, leaving a far lower media payout. That was really the whole motivation with the PAC rebuild/MWC split - the higher value teams won’t need to share their media payout with the lower valued teams. For the PAC, it was addition thru subtraction and why they didn’t want to just merge with MWC.

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I think UNLV (Pac) and AFA (AAC) will be gone soon. The leftovers would be at 6 football schools but only 5 full time members. They have 4 years to figure something out. The departing schools will still be here until fall of 26. Whatever is left can get a 2 year grace period to rebuild to 8 if they choose. They will have pretty much milked the poaching and exit fees dry by then. But.....

Would any school want to join that? Would FCS schools want to pay the 5 million, plus the additional costs to join that? NMSU and UTEP are in a far more stable situation. Why would they give that up for a dead man walking conference?

There can't be two G5 level conferences in the West. It just doesn't work.

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Originally Posted by Son of a Bison

I feel like the MVFC schools that are also MVC basketball schools pushed to accept Murray St knowing they would lose a top 1-2 school in the future and proactively backfilled to prep for this scenario.

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I think the MVC schools in the MVFC were more worried about getting a good MBB program like Murray St into the conference after all the defections they've had recently like Creighton, Wichita St, and Loyola-Chicago so getting their football program into the MVFC was just a carrot to get them to join the MVC in other sports. Football definitely takes a backseat to MBB at most of the MVFC/MVC schools (appears that Missouri St may have been the exception since their MBB program just took a step down to help out their football program).

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Originally Posted by MWC

This would be driven solely by the MW schools who wish to avoid exit fees. The AAC and the Pac would not have to be working together to make this happen. AFA has wanted to go to the AAC for years. UNLV is not tied to Nevada and will be added to the Pac, maybe as soon as this week.

That leaves just 5 full members of the MW and football only Hawaii.

Wyoming
New Mexico
USU
Nevada
SJSU

Say the Pac grabs 4 from the AAC who then backfills with Wyoming, New Mexico and maybe USU.

That leaves NV, SJSU and Hawaii. The departing schools vote to dissolve. Nobody has to collude to get to that point.

I think this may be the most likely outcome.

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You sure the AAC wants all those schools?

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Originally Posted by Gully

You sure the AAC wants all those schools?

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No I am not. If they want AFA badly enough, and I think they do, it may well have to come as a package deal with the other Rocky Mountain schools. Or maybe not. If the MW tries to rebuild it will be a few years before invitations go out. The schools leaving aren't going until 2026.

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Originally Posted by MWC

No I am not. If they want AFA badly enough, and I think they do, it may well have to come as a package deal with the other Rocky Mountain schools. Or maybe not. If the MW tries to rebuild it will be a few years before invitations go out. The schools leaving aren't going until 2026.

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I very much guess that they don’t, USF and FAU, Temple, ECU, Charlotte, UAB, etc. are going to choke on Wyoming, USU, etc. Hell I think they probably choke on Air Force too. All the travel of the ACC/B10, without the tv revenue.

Similar to the PAC savior schools, AFA would be leaving the MW to try to get away from those schools, so what benefit is there for them?

I would guess invitations go out this FY for schools to join MW in fall 2026. What happened to the PAC has got to be weighing on the minds of Nevarez and the remaining MW presidents. Either CUSA schools or FCS. Clock is ticking…