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What record during these 30 games had the highest probability of occurring (if it's not too much trouble:))?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
[Edit: It just occurred to me that a playoff loss would've changed the number of games we played, so maybe this isn't possible.]
Well so much for going with the old Pascal's Triangle approach. Which was coming up with 26-4 without the complicating factor of the playoff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strategery
Moved up to 37 this week. I look forward to the full analysis....
Not too much to say. Big South moves into the top 5 conferences; OVC out. Big Sky still out. Overall, MVFC teams moved up in the top-25. Eight Valley teams in the top-20. Need to beat USD by 3 TDs & a FG to meet the prediction this weekend.
Sagarin's Week 9 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
37 North Dakota State 77.28
66 Iowa State 70.42 +3.63 +20.00 +16.37
208 Weber State 42.35 +31.70 +17.00 -14.70
240 Incarnate Word 27.42 +53.09 +58.00 +4.91
120 Montana 58.08 +22.43 +12.00 -10.43
141 Western Illinois 54.53 +19.52 +7.00 -12.52
100 Southern Illinois 62.33 +18.18 +28.00 +9.82
110 Indiana State 60.51 +20.00 +17.00 -3.00
167 South Dakota 49.25 +24.80
76 South Dakota State 67.20 +13.31
84 Northern Iowa 65.11 +8.94
98 Missouri State 62.39 +11.66
109 Youngstown State 60.67 +19.84
62 Illinois State 71.00
Total Diff: -9.55
Home Field 3.23
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 37 North Dakota State
2 62 Illinois State
3 72 New Hampshire
4 74 Villanova
5 76 South Dakota State
6 78 Jacksonville State
7 84 Northern Iowa
8 87 Coastal Carolina
9 88 McNeese State
10 89 Eastern Washington
11 94 SE Louisiana
12 98 Missouri State
13 100 Southern Illinois
14 103 Chattanooga
15 104 Richmond
16 105 Sam Houston State
17 109 Youngstown State
18 110 Indiana State
19 111 Harvard
20 117 Fordham
21 120 Montana
22 122 Liberty
23 124 Eastern Kentucky
24 127 Eastern Illinois
25 128 Montana State
Code:1. MVFC 62.92
2. Colonial 50.46
3. Big South 50.33
4. Southland 49.57
5. Southern 49.38
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the AAC, MAC, MWC, & Sun Belt
#2 in C-USA
#5 in the Big Ten
#6 in the ACC
#7 in the Big 12
#8 in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 63.93
2. MWC 63.88
3. MVFC 62.92
4. C-USA 60.45
5. MAC 56.76
6. SBC 54.63
7. CAA 50.46
8. Big South 50.33
9. SLC 49.57
10. Socon 49.38
LOL @ Big fluffy
/obligatory
Sent from somewhere using my Windows Phone.
Montana really dropped.
No surprise, Fluffy teamQuote:
Originally Posted by A1pigskin
Only one spot. They've been steadily moving down all season. The computer model doesn't like them near as much as the pollsters.Quote:
Originally Posted by A1pigskin
edit: Okay, maybe not steadily, but the overall trend has downward since week 2.
pre - 10
week 2 - 14
week 3 - 7
week 4 - 9
week 5 - 10
week 6 - 12
week 7 - 23
week 8 - 20
week 9 - 21
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.23 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
South Dakota 96.6% (+0.9% from last week)
South Dakota State 83.8% (-1.9%)
Northern Iowa 74.6% (+5.0%)
Missouri State 80.6% (-1.1%)
Youngstown State 92.8% (-1.2%)
12-0 45.1% (+4.6% from last week)
11-1 40.1% (-1.2%)
10-2 12.9% (-2.4%)
9-3 1.8% (-0.9%)
8-4 0.1% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.002%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
What are the odds of holding USD scoreless for three straight years?