Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by Christopher Moen

Does Iowa State beating Toledo (one of the top teams in the MAC) help give NDSU a boost?

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Iowa State's rating increased from the previous week by almost a point, so that would contribute to our rating.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

I knew the probability of undefeated would take a big jump, but my goodness.....

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About 1/3 of it is just the fact that we've got one less game we need to win and the other 2/3 is that the model is now giving us a better shot at winning the remaining games, most notably the UNI and Mo St games.

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Originally Posted by SoCalBison

I had looked at Sagarin early this morning before this week was posted--and last week's rankings hadn't been adjusted during the week. Also, Bison are ranked 17 in ELO. Just another good week to be a Bison fan.

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Always good to be a Bison fan! It is worth noting, however, that the ELO ranking is the least accurate for predicting future games. If I recall correctly, no consideration is given to the scores of games when this is calculated -- just the W or L.

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

Always good to be a Bison fan! It is worth noting, however, that the ELO ranking is the least accurate for predicting future games. If I recall correctly, no consideration is given to the scores of games when this is calculated -- just the W or L.

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While we are improving, and think it should be obvious to all, that we are not yet a true top 25 team; we may get there, however.....

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

While we are improving, and think it should be obvious to all, that we are not yet a true top 25 team; we may get there, however.....

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What more do they have to do to earn it?

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Originally Posted by gizmo

What more do they have to do to earn it?

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The reality is it is tough when you don't play in a P5 conference. I would say, that just from the eye ball test, for me, they are not quite where last years team was. If they can dominate some of these very good teams coming up, particularly UNI at UNI, I may come around and say they are as good as last year. Last year's team literally blew the doors off everyone, including the best of the best in the playoffs and that is why the predictor had them in the top 25 which I have little doubt was accurate.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

The reality is it is tough when you don't play in a P5 conference. I would say, that just from the eye ball test, for me, they are not quite where last years team was. If they can dominate some of these very good teams coming up, particularly UNI at UNI, I may come around and say they are as good as last year. Last year's team literally blew the doors off everyone, including the best of the best in the playoffs and that is why the predictor had them in the top 25 which I have little doubt was accurate.

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I think they figuratively blew the doors off everyone.

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Originally Posted by runtheoption

I think they figuratively blew the doors off everyone.

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Not so sure about that...... :)

So, I looked back at the predictions Sagarin's model generated prior to each of the last 30 games (I had no numbers for KSU and Ferris so I used the lowest percentage chance from all the other games for KSU and the highest for Ferris). This streak is pretty amazing, even as highly as the model has rated us over the last three seasons the chances of winning those 30 games consecutively comes out to about 1 in 133.

Also, when do the 'streaking the quad' t-shirts start showing up? 01/11/15?

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

If I recall correctly, no consideration is given to the scores of games when this is calculated -- just the W or L.

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He calls it ELO_SCORE now, and the description makes it sound like it is slightly score based, but the description seems to be missing some details. I'm not sure what a fraction of a victory is.