Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (4.06 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Western Illinois 96.5% (+0.1% from last week)
Southern Illinois 91.0% (+2.4%)
Indiana State 97.3% (-1.0%)
South Dakota 90.6% (+0.2%)
South Dakota State 79.3% (-1.0%)
Northern Iowa 66.5% (-6.0%)
Missouri State 77.5% (-5.2%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (-1.1%)
12-0 29.3% (-1.7% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+1.0%)
10-2 22.4% (+0.9%)
9-3 6.2% (=0.0%)
8-4 1.0% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.004%
5-7 0.0001%
4-8 0.000001%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
