I watched the Jacksonville game on Saturday. I am shocked they are polled so high. The valley would break them.
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I watched the Jacksonville game on Saturday. I am shocked they are polled so high. The valley would break them.
Jacksonville or Jacksonville State?Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonHorns
Jacksonvills State and they won by a touchdown. I would feel way better about Saturdays game if we were playing them. Still the bunnies are going down.
Down year for the mvfc...only better than 2 FBS conferences. :)
When you win by a margin three TDs greater than predicted, you go up a bit. NDSU jumps 12 spots to #59. Eight Valley teams in the top-25, six in the top-11, and all four top spots. The Valley is still in spitting distance of the MWC and MAC. Big Sky and CAA still fighting for the #2 FCS conference. On paper, the YSU game is almost a toss-up.
Sag doesn't post this info anymore, but I think we're very close to the point of only using data from the 2015 season.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 6 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
59 North Dakota State 72.14
123 Montana 56.16 +13.27 -3.00 -16.27
176 Weber State 44.10 +30.75 +27.00 -3.75
166 North Dakota 46.99 +27.86 +25.00 -2.86
85 South Dakota State 64.10 +5.33 +21.00 +15.67
98 Northern Iowa 62.05 +12.80
153 South Dakota 51.17 +23.68
138 Indiana State 53.45 +15.98
108 Southern Illinois 60.27 +9.16
128 Western Illinois 55.47 +19.38
75 Youngstown State 67.64 +1.79
210 Missouri State 35.61 +39.24
78 Illinois State 66.53
Total Diff: -7.21
Home Field 2.71
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 59 72.14 North Dakota State
2 75 67.64 Youngstown State
3 78 66.53 Illinois State
4 85 64.10 South Dakota State
5 94 63.06 Coastal Carolina
6 96 62.55 Jacksonville State
7 98 62.05 Northern Iowa
8 99 61.88 Chattanooga
9 102 61.51 James Madison
10 107 60.31 Harvard
11 108 60.27 Southern Illinois
12 112 58.59 Eastern Washington
13 114 58.12 William & Mary
14 115 57.71 Sam Houston State
15 119 56.60 Southern Utah
16 120 56.59 McNeese State
17 123 56.16 Montana
18 124 56.05 Dartmouth
19 128 55.47 Western Illinois
20 132 55.04 Montana State
21 133 54.98 Samford
22 137 53.62 Liberty
23 138 53.45 Indiana State
24 139 53.43 Cal Poly-SLO
25 140 53.32 Villanova
Bonus: MVFC FCS rankings:Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.52 9
2 SEC 78.84 13
3 ACC 77.25 11
4 BIG TEN 75.67 10
5 PAC-12 75.55 10
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 75.04 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.72 5
8 MWC 61.79 2
9 MAC 60.82 2
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 59.84 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.23 3
12 SUN BELT 55.01 1
13 BIG SKY 48.12 1
14 COLONIAL 48.02 1
15 SOUTHERN 45.83 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 45.51 1
17 SOUTHLAND 43.03 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 42.92 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.88 1
20 PATRIOT 36.04 1
21 NORTHEAST 36.01 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.20 1
23 SWAC 27.64 1
24 PIONEER 24.34 1
1. NDSU
2. YSU
3. ISUr
4. SDSU
7. UNI
11.SIU
19. WIU
23. ISUb
35. USD
82. MSU
In years past I believe it was week 5 or 6 where it became well connected. It's good to see us back up in the 50's.
Looking forward to Audit's update....since SDSU was our least likely game to win based on Sagarin, beating them handily should really increase our percentage chances of 8-3 or better because we now have a tough game in the rear view mirror (with a win) and our score went up following such a dominating performance. I'm hoping to see a 90%+ chance of 8-3 or better.
Bitch slap UNI and were golden.
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1 26.8% +16.8% from last week
9-2.. 43.1% +13.9%
8-3.. 23.5%. -10.3%
7-4... 5.8%. -13.9%
6-5... 0.7%... -5.5%
5-6... 0.04%
4-7... 0.001%
3-8... 0.000001%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.UNI... 82.8% 13.0. +7.2% +3.5 change from last week
v.USD.. 95.9% 23.5. +7.5% +7.5
@Ind St 88.1% 16.0. +2.2% +1.5
@S Ill... 75.1%. 9.0 +12.0% +4.5
v.W Ill.. 92.3% 19.5. +1.4% +1.5
@YSU... 55.3%. 2.0... -2.0% -0.5
v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0.. +0.5% +5.5
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--.. @YSU... 55.3%. 2.0
--.. @S Ill... 75.1%. 9.0
--.. v.UNI... 82.8% 13.0
--.. @Ind St 88.1% 16.0
+1 v.W Ill.. 92.3% 19.5
-1. v.USD.. 95.9% 23.5
--.. v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0
Attachment 6251Attachment 6252
Red Birds at Guins is the closest contest this week.