Sagarin says

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point so here we go:

12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%
9-3 14.4%
8-4 4.0%
7-5 0.7%
6-6 0.1%
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

...based on Sagarin's pre-season numbers.

That's the Rating which we need to talk about whether or not we're going to use. He's publishing three models. one is the predictor that we've used historically, another the Golden_Mean which he asserts is also a purely score based model but employs a somewhat different methodology, the third is an elo_score model which apparently constrains the margin of victory more severely and therefore may not be as accurate of a predictor. The Rating is apparently a weighted average of the three models w/ less emphasis on the elo_score.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point to here we go, based on Sagarin's pre-season numbers:

12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%
9-3 14.4%
8-4 4.0%
7-5 0.7%
6-6 0.1%
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

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Directly reverse those and you get und

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point to here we go:

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#1 or #2 seed, home field for all playoff
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
Seeded, 4th or higher depending on others.
10-2 30.7%
Definitely in playoffs, we'll outbid almost any non-seeded team.
9-3 14.4%
Probably in, depends on others.
8-4 4.0%
Technically eligible but doubtful.
7-5 0.7%
Need to win conference, possible with 6 wins but very unlikely.
6-6 0.1%
Out.
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

Selection committe has already stated that late season losses matter more than early ones, so ending with 3 losses could put us at risk, even at 9-3.

Sagarin has NDSU favored by a couple of points @ Iowa State. :)

Scottietohottie has NDSU favored by 49 points @ iowa state.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by taper

#1 or #2 seed, home field for all playoff
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
Seeded, 4th or higher depending on others.
10-2 30.7%
Definitely in playoffs, we'll outbid almost any non-seeded team.
9-3 14.4%
Probably in, depends on others.
8-4 4.0%
Technically eligible but doubtful.
7-5 0.7%
Need to win conference, possible with 6 wins but very unlikely.
6-6 0.1%
Out.
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

Selection committe has already stated that late season losses matter more than early ones, so ending with 3 losses could put us at risk, even at 9-3.

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For at least this season, NDSU will get every benefit of the doubt as long as they have a winning record. With the way we travel, we are currently the selection committee's best wet dream. It doesn't mean it will carry over past this season, but it will take a lot of things to go wrong for the Bison not to get selected. That being said, I expect nothing less than being near the top of the heap at the end of the season. What would make the MVFC very happy is if we finish with 3 or 4 losses and we are the 4th team out. That would force the selection committee to bring a few more along for the ride just to get to the Bison.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

0-12 0.000000000001%

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Which would put the odds of a winless season at 1 in 100,000,000,000,000 (one hundred trillion). I'll give anyone who wants to take those odds a place to send their money. You might have better odds trying to pick a perfect NCAA basketball tournament bracket.

I always dread your post, thanks for the headache!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

I know how some of you like to see a bunch of zeros after the decimal point to here we go:

12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%
9-3 14.4%
8-4 4.0%
7-5 0.7%
6-6 0.1%
5-7 0.01%
4-8 0.0002%
3-9 0.00001%
2-10 0.0000001%
1-11 0.0000000004%
0-12 0.000000000001%

...based on Sagarin's pre-season numbers.

That's the Rating which we need to talk about whether or not we're going to use. He's publishing three models. one is the predictor that we've used historically, another the Golden_Mean which he asserts is also a purely score based model but employs a somewhat different methodology, the third is an elo_score model which apparently constrains the margin of victory more severely and therefore may not be as accurate of a predictor. The Rating is apparently a weighted average of the three models w/ less emphasis on the elo_score.

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OK, I like this:
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%

so, an 80.8% chance of finishing with at least 10 wins. Sounds about right.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SoCalBison

OK, I like this:
12-0 15.5%
11-1 34.6%
10-2 30.7%

so, an 80.8% chance of finishing with at least 10 wins. Sounds about right.

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It feels weird to say, but that looks like an over/under on regular season wins at 10.5 and I think I'd take the under. Losing Bohl and multiple NFL players is not free. Granted we demolished literally everyone in the playoffs so could conceivably fall back and still win 11 games, but that is a lot to lose and still dominate.