2021 Playoffs, Round 2: SIU Preview

[tony]

They embarrassed the crap out of our team last spring.

What has changed that makes us think that we can beat them this time?

[GreenfieldBison]

They embarrassed the crap out of our team last spring.

What has changed that makes us think that we can beat them this time?

Cam Millers recent play for one thing.


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[EC8CH]

According to Jay Walker... Our newly adopted dual quarterback system.

According to Kev... A twelve man Tight End screen he has been saving to call for the playoffs.

[EC8CH]

A newly refocused Bisonville after the recent closing of the political board.

[Kevin]

According to Jay Walker... Our newly adopted dual quarterback system.

According to Kev... A twelve man Tight End screen he has been saving to call for the playoffs.

Ah yes. The sdsu special.

[Kevin]

A newly refocused Bisonville after the recent closing of the political board.

Thank u Tony for a 16 month experiment to prove that quarantines do not work.

[TAILG8R]

Reading some quotes from SIU they sure are a confident bunch. They know they can beat us because they did last year and it's all the same players.

Personally I think this won't be close by the start of the 4th quarter. SIU is going to get the treatment SDSU has received all those times in the second season. NDSU is a whole other beast come playoff time and I can feel that again this year after the sham of a spring season.

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[tony]

Thank u Tony for a 16 month experiment to prove that quarantines do not work.

You forget the "when morons are involved." :)

I tried to rewatch the SIU game and just couldn't do it, btw.

[oldmantutters]

They embarrassed the crap out of our team last spring.

What has changed that makes us think that we can beat them this time?We can't.

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[El_Chapo]

WHY IS HERD N HORNS DOING THE SIU PRE PARTY??

make them goto Applebee's

Boooooo

[GreenfieldBison]

We can't.

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You’re fired.


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[CAS4127]

Reading some quotes from SIU they sure are a confident bunch. They know they can beat us because they did last year and it's all the same players.

Personally I think this won't be close by the start of the 4th quarter. SIU is going to get the treatment SDSU has received all those times in the second season. NDSU is a whole other beast come playoff time and I can feel that again this year after the sham of a spring season.

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Not sure on this take. SIU has solid weak side run game, and we are vulnerable to that type of scheme. Couple that with play-action and we have a game.

We need our O to click, which would allow us to make them one-dimensional (think, passing), and their QB has an odd release that we may be able to exploit and jump on sideline passes.

They also have some physical RBs, and we struggle with those at times given small OLBs.

[Professor Chaos]

Not sure on this take. SIU has solid weak side run game, and we are vulnerable to that type of scheme. Couple that with play-action and we have a game.

We need our O to click, which would allow us to make them one-dimensional (think, passing), and their QB has an odd release that we may be able to exploit and jump on sideline passes.

They also have some physical RBs, and we struggle with those at times given small OLBs.
I've been confused all season by their usage, or lack thereof, of RB Javon Williams Jr. He's a 6'2" 245 lb wrecking ball that in 2019 had 1300+ yards combined rushing and receiving and over 20 TDs when you add in his passing (he also had Derrick Henry-like high school numbers but threw the ball as well). This season he's only got 522 yards on 92 carries in 12 games played and hasn't carried the ball more than 12 times in any single game. His TDs have been cut in half from 2019 as well. We complain about our RBs usage but this seems like an egregious underutilization of a supreme talent unless he's been injured.

In any case I think their offensive skill players are the best in the MVFC all-up. They have a great duo of receivers in Cox and Lenoir that the Bison CBs will struggle to match up with 1-on-1. Their QB Nic Baker has been erratic this year (11 INTs) but if he has a good game (like the great game he had against NDSU in the spring) he can do some major damage with them.

Some of their fans on AGS have said their O-line has been very shaky this year... that gives me confidence that the Bison D-line can make life miserable for Baker and hem up their run game but this is a team capable of giving the Bison all they can handle if they put it all together.

[TAILG8R]

Not sure on this take. SIU has solid weak side run game, and we are vulnerable to that type of scheme. Couple that with play-action and we have a game.

We need our O to click, which would allow us to make them one-dimensional (think, passing), and their QB has an odd release that we may be able to exploit and jump on sideline passes.

They also have some physical RBs, and we struggle with those at times given small OLBs.

They've been prone to giving up rushing yardage and we've been hitting our stride with an affective rushing attack and utilizing less RBs(which has helped a ton imo). I think that and the fact that beyond the score from last game the TOP was even more embarrassing will lead this offense to kicking the crap out of their defense and getting their offense in catchup mode. Their QB while good has 11 INTs so playing catchup with a D that has been getting takeaways isn't a place I think they want to be.

Just my hopeful opinion.

[Professor Chaos]

They've been prone to giving up rushing yardage and we've been hitting our stride with an affective rushing attack and utilizing less RBs(which has helped a ton imo). I think that and the fact that beyond the score from last game the TOP was even more embarrassing will lead this offense to kicking the crap out of their defense and getting their offense in catchup mode. Their QB while good has 11 INTs so playing catchup with a D that has been getting takeaways isn't a place I think they want to be.

Just my hopeful opinion.
This is a good point. SIU time of possession in the NDSU game last spring: 41:26. SIU's average time of possession in the fall season so far: 27:07 (which is 112th out of 128 teams in the FCS).

[CAS4127]

This is a good point. SIU time of possession in the NDSU game last spring: 41:26. SIU's average time of possession in the fall season so far: 27:07 (which is 112th out of 128 teams in the FCS).

TOP in their wins is a more important stat for most part, but not necessarily. We’ve lost TOP this fall and won by +2 or more scores.

[Hammerhead]

TOP in their wins is a more important stat for most part, but not necessarily. We’ve lost TOP this fall and won by +2 or more scores.

We have an offense that doesn’t drive 8 yards and punt like we did in the spring.

[CAS4127]

We have an offense that doesn’t drive 8 yards and punt like we did in the spring.

That’s the most recent anyway. I’m still a bit leery.

[sage]

I don't have any preview of SIU, except what I've seen in stats and what I've read about them. I will say, Bison need to be ready to execute and play, with no turnovers and costly penalties.

Having a week off can be good and can be bad, I'm just hoping for a very strong running for a championship this year. I actual think we are the best team left, but will need to play perfect games throughout to win it all.

[17>1]

I know it was in the spring, but similar to maybe an SDSU regular season loss and then a rematch in the playoffs, it usually goes well for the Herd in that second matchup. Also, our defense right now is not the same D we saw in the spring, that was unlike any Bison defense we've seen in a long long time and that's why I put an * next to anything spring related. And like someone else mentioned, Cam Miller, enough said.

Win the turnover margin, win TOP, stop the run, run the ball. Bison win this one 35-14.

Go Bison!

[tony]

Common opponents:

USD: NDSU 52-24, SIU 22-10. SIU played USD the week after NDSU destroyed the 'yotes and controlled the clock while going +4 on TO margin.
YSU: NDSU 49-17, SIU 18-35. SIU played YSU the week after NDSU throttled the Penguins and managed to lose by 17. Stats were even except for two big ones: SIU had 11 penalties and two more TOs.
MSU: NDSU 27-20, SIU 28-38: SIU played MSU two weeks after NDSU... SIU couldn't run against MSU
SDSU: NDSU 19-27, SIU 42-41: SIU got the OT win.
ISU-B: NDSU 44-2, SIU 47-21: This is the third game on the list where SIU played an opponent the week after NDSU destroyed them. SIU's offense went wild but their defense, not so much.
ISU-R: NDSU 20-0, SIU 35-17: NDSU's defense was much more dominant... but SIU did turn the ball over on their own five and hold ISU to 0 yards, forcing a FG.
UNI: NDSU 34-20, SIU 16-23: Hard to compare... NDSU ran much better against UNI but Quincy gained most of the yards. SIU was ranked #3 when they lost to UNI.
UND: NDSU 16-10, SIU 31-28: That's a lot of points to give up to UND.

In conference games, NDSU is #2 in scoring offense and #1 in scoring defense, SIU is #4 and #7
Rushing offense / defense: NDSU is #1/#1 and SIU is #4/#8

SIU shows a real advantage on Kickoffs (simple: only let them KO once.) Their punt game is very strong too.

[TAILG8R]

Common opponents:

USD: NDSU 52-24, SIU 22-10. SIU played USD the week after NDSU destroyed the 'yotes and controlled the clock while going +4 on TO margin.
YSU: NDSU 49-17, SIU 18-35. SIU played YSU the week after NDSU throttled the Penguins and managed to lose by 17. Stats were even except for two big ones: SIU had 11 penalties and two more TOs.
MSU: NDSU 27-20, SIU 28-38: SIU played MSU two weeks after NDSU... SIU couldn't run against MSU
SDSU: NDSU 19-27, SIU 42-41: SIU got the OT win.
ISU-B: NDSU 44-2, SIU 47-21: This is the third game on the list where SIU played an opponent the week after NDSU destroyed them. SIU's offense went wild but their defense, not so much.
ISU-R: NDSU 20-0, SIU 35-17: NDSU's defense was much more dominant... but SIU did turn the ball over on their own five and hold ISU to 0 yards, forcing a FG.
UNI: NDSU 34-20, SIU 16-23: Hard to compare... NDSU ran much better against UNI but Quincy gained most of the yards. SIU was ranked #3 when they lost to UNI.
UND: NDSU 16-10, SIU 31-28: That's a lot of points to give up to UND.

In conference games, NDSU is #2 in scoring offense and #1 in scoring defense, SIU is #4 and #7
Rushing offense / defense: NDSU is #1/#1 and SIU is #4/#8

SIU shows a real advantage on Kickoffs (simple: only let them KO once.) Their punt game is very strong too.I just don't think their defense will hold up to the run game we have going the last few games.

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[NDSU92]

Most computer rankings have SIU as a better team than the #4 seed, Sac State.

Lol

[OrygunBison]

Responding to the initial question, I think that not enough has been said about O-line play in the spring. We certainly had other issues all around the team but I remember being incredibly worried about losing our OL position coach just a few short weeks before the start of an out-of-sequence spring season. I think that the OL has played okay this season but they've really played well once Cam came in and stabilized things.

[blackdiamond2]

https://vimeo.com/channels/1492419 - Nick Hill pregame video conference. Mcfooly trying to get the game plan.

This game does scare me as they line it up and can run it right down our throats (similar to what SDSU can do). We don't have a dominate run defense like some of the past championship teams.

[tolnabison]

https://vimeo.com/channels/1492419 - Nick Hill pregame video conference. Mcfooly trying to get the game plan.

This game does scare me as they line it up and can run it right down our throats (similar to what SDSU can do). We don't have a dominate run defense like some of the past championship teams.

I don't think their offensive line is even close to what SDSUs is. I won't think they will run it down our throats. If I am worried, it will be with pass coverage against Lenior and Cox.

[NDSU92]

https://vimeo.com/channels/1492419 - Nick Hill pregame video conference. Mcfooly trying to get the game plan.

This game does scare me as they line it up and can run it right down our throats (similar to what SDSU can do). We don't have a dominate run defense like some of the past championship teams.

We haven't had a better rush yards allowed per game or per carry *in conference* since 2013...

[Bison Dan]

I don't think their offensive line is even close to what SDSUs is. I won't think they will run it down our throats. If I am worried, it will be with pass coverage against Lenior and Cox.

We need to key on #15 when he's in the game. Gets the ball 90% of the time.

[bisoneer]

I would like to see QP play some RB in this game! Ok coach?

[CAS4127]

I would like to see QP play some RB in this game! Ok coach?

Yeah, let’s do shit we haven’t done in the last several games, in a win or go home playoff game.

That makes sense!/purple.

[GreenfieldBison]

Yeah, let’s do shit we haven’t done in the last several games, in a win or go home playoff game.

That makes sense!/purple.

Wait. Wouldn’t that be consistent with not putting shit on tape?


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[mtoutfitter]

I would like to see QP play some RB in this game! Ok coach?

What would make you think he would have the timing or ball handling/handoff technique down to even attempt it?

[CAS4127]

Wait. Wouldn’t that be consistent with not putting shit on tape?


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Maybe, and about as dumb a theory.

[Professor Chaos]

We need to key on #15 when he's in the game. Gets the ball 90% of the time.
I haven't paid enough attention when I've watched them but I doubt this is accurate. His high carry game this year was 12 carries. So unless he's playing less than 15 snaps a game that can't be right.

[CAS4127]

I haven't paid enough attention when I've watched them but I doubt this is accurate. His high carry game this year was 12 carries. So unless he's playing less than 15 snaps a game that can't be right.

He meant that #15 gets the ball 90% of time when he is in the game.

And 15 is a solid/physical runner.

[Professor Chaos]

He meant that #15 gets the ball 90% of time when he is in the game.

And 15 is a solid/physical runner.
I understand that but on the season he's yet to have more than 12 touches in any one game. Against USD last Saturday he had 10 carries and 1 reception amongst their 80 offensive plays. So unless he's only playing 10-15 snaps a game that can't be accurate.

[GreenfieldBison]

Maybe, and about as dumb a theory.

Yeah, bad idea.

https://www.google.com/search?q=strategic+surprise+in+military+history&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari


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[CAS4127]

Yeah, bad idea.

https://www.google.com/search?q=strategic+surprise+in+military+history&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari (https://www.google.com/search?q=strategic+surprise+in+military+history&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari)


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The fact that you don’t recognize the multitude of differences between these two theories doesn’t surprise me for some reason.

[CAS4127]

I understand that but on the season he's yet to have more than 12 touches in any one game. Against USD last Saturday he had 10 carries and 1 reception amongst their 80 offensive plays. So unless he's only playing 10-15 snaps a game that can't be accurate.

We have players that have comparable snap counts that are equally effective.

[gavin2126]

I understand that but on the season he's yet to have more than 12 touches in any one game. Against USD last Saturday he had 10 carries and 1 reception amongst their 80 offensive plays. So unless he's only playing 10-15 snaps a game that can't be accurate.They do use a RB by committee approach like we used for most of the season. Williams leads the team with 92 rushes, and they have 2 other RB's with more than 80 carries and a 4th with 51. Plus Baker has 87 carries but I'm guessing a good amount of those are sacks & scrambles. I agree that he's playing more than 10-15 snaps a game, but I'd guess he's probably only in for about 30% of their plays. At say 80 plays per game that's 24 snaps for Williams.

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[Professor Chaos]

They do use a RB by committee approach like we used for most of the season. Williams leads the team with 92 rushes, and they have 2 other RB's with more than 80 carries and a 4th with 51. Plus Baker has 87 carries but I'm guessing a good amount of those are sacks & scrambles. I agree that he's playing more than 10-15 snaps a game, but I'd guess he's probably only in for about 30% of their plays. At say 80 plays per game that's 24 snaps for Williams.

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Yeah, that makes sense. I'm surprised they don't use him more. He was really good as a freshman in 2019 and he tailed off quite a bit in the spring and that's continued into the fall. I wonder if he's dinged up??? You'd think with a guy like him they'd be more inclined to try to wear down opposing defenses by running him at them more than they do.

[GreenfieldBison]

The fact that you don’t recognize the multitude of differences between these two theories doesn’t surprise me for some reason.

It’s not safe to click on random links sent by anonymous peeps.

Be that as it may, the point is, unless you have been attending practices then just like me you have no idea what this team is prepared to do based on the existing game tape.

But then, deep down there, you already know that.


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[CAS4127]

It’s not safe to click on random links sent by anonymous peeps.

Be that as it may, the point is, unless you have been attending practices then just like me you have no idea what this team is prepared to do based on the existing game tape.

But then, deep down there, you already know that.


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But, I do know the difference between practice and games. I assume you do as well, but maybe I shouldn’t.

My point, really, is that if we’re gonna run QP, just do it the way we have, with him at QB and an extra blocker re: RB or FB.

[GreenfieldBison]

But, I do know the difference between practice and games. I assume you do as well, but maybe I shouldn’t.

My point, really, is that if we’re gonna run QP, just do it the way we have, with him at QB and an extra blocker re: RB or FB.

OK. Sold.


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[CAS4127]

OK. Sold.


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If we have them gasping for air with hands on hips, bring in QP and run QB power, similar to what we did against USD.

[GreenfieldBison]

If we have them gasping for air with hands on hips, bring in QP and run QB power, similar to what we did against USD.

Like it. Then, don’t hold or get downfield early if you’re 50,60,70 ish.


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[NDGooch]

The NCAA are big spenders! SIU gets to stay at the Ramada on 13th.

Bad info from my wife (thank honey!) . The fans are at the Ramada. The team is in the air now.

[BigHorns]

ESPN article on round 2 games and title odds for each team:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32772567/fcs-football-playoffs-breaking-biggest-games-round-16

[NDSUBowler]

ESPN article on round 2 games and title odds for each team:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32772567/fcs-football-playoffs-breaking-biggest-games-round-16

Ah yes, very accurate observation by ESPN


The Bison are positioned for yet another run, but there's a question mark at quarterback. Quincy Patterson has been injured, and while backup Cam Miller has filled in beautifully, the plan as Patterson returns to full health could make things awkward.

[89MTBISON]

We are easily the class of this year's playoffs, with a quasi freshman at QB. Cam at QB has made life much easier for our barely competent OC/HC. Losing Cofield, Hayes, Jabril, Schoenning and that other guy from 2019 has taken us longer than usual to find our groove, but we are set. I expect us to spay/neuter these dogs early and often. 38-10 Bison roll. And yes, FCS is getting boring.

[CAS4127]

Anyone watching HC v Nova and have a way to focused screen?

[EC8CH]

Anyone watching HC v Nova and have a way to focused screen?

How can something be too focused?

[56BISON73]

Anyone watching HC v Nova and have a way to focused screen?

Mine looks fine.

[CAS4127]

Mine looks fine.

Hmmm ... I can’t see the entire field. I’m likely doing something wrong airdropping from phone to TV.

[EC8CH]

Hmmm ... I can’t see the entire field. I’m likely doing something wrong airdropping from phone to TV.

Ahhh "zoomed in". Hit the "aspect" button on your tv remote.

[TransAmBison]

Hmmm ... I can’t see the entire field. I’m likely doing something wrong airdropping from phone to TV.I'm watching too...not great camera angles...and zoomed in too close. Looks to be over.

[EC8CH]

I'm watching too...not great camera angles...and zoomed in too close. Looks to be over.

Nova camera angles are low. Makes it look like a high school game.