NDSU vs. JMU (Special Teams Analysis)

[IzzyFlexion]

Always an important part any football game.
With this matchup being so close, it becomes critical.

JMU PUNTING:

The Dukes punted only 46 times all season compared to 89 by their opponents.

JMU punter Harry O'Kelly averaged 38.57 yards per punt and dropped 21 of them inside of the 20 and had none blocked.

NDSU PUNTING:

The Bison punted only 51 times this season averaging 39.4 yards per punt. NDSU opponents punted 85 times.

Garret Wegner pinned opponents inside of the 20 yard line 19 times and had one punt blocked.

[MankatoBison]

Pack it up guys- we're effed.

Thanks for the analysis, I cant recall the blocked punt against us?? what game was that?

[G_Funky]

Pack it up guys- we're effed.

Thanks for the analysis, I cant recall the blocked punt against us?? what game was that?

UD...I believe it resulted in a safety.

Im more interested in their average punt return yards given up vs our average punt return yards gained.

[IzzyFlexion]

JMU Field Goal Kicking:

Dukes kicker Ethan Ratke was 25 of 31 on FG attempts this season with a long of 44 yards.
He was 7/9 from 40 to 49 yards and only attempted 1 from beyond 50 yards. He did not have any attempts blocked.

Defensively, JMU blocked 4 kicks this season.

NDSU Field Goal Kicking:

Griffin Crosa was 11 of 15 on FG attempts with a long of 46 yards. He was 2 of 4 from between 40 and 49 yards and had 1 kick blocked.
Will Cardinal was 2 of 4 with a long of 32 yards.

Defensively, NDSU had no blocked kicks.

[IzzyFlexion]

JMU Punt Returns:

34 returns for 433 yards (12.7 yards per return)

D'Angelo Amos returned 30 of the 34 with an average of 12.9 including 1 for a touchdown.

NDSU Punt Returns:

The Bison returned 30 punts for 350 yards. (11.7 yards per return)

Trevor Heit returned 28 of those 30 punts averaging 12.0 yards per return and no touchdowns.

[Bisonator98]

Our special teams haven't been real special since Bohl left. He seemed to put more emphasis on it than Klieman or Entz has so far. Still get a kick out of them saying FG's don't beat you and then they send out the FG unit.

[Bison 4 Life]

Yep. I'm almost sure this is going to turn into a "shit talk special teams" thread.

[IzzyFlexion]

JMU Opponents Punt Returns:

Only 12 punts returned for a total of 68 yards. (average of 5.7 yards per return) with a long of 21.

NDSU Opponents Punt Returns:

12 returns for 69 yards (average of 5.8 yards per return) with a long of 18.

Can't get much closer than that.

[Professor Chaos]

I predict #24 D'Angelo Amos will be Bison fans least favorite Dukes player. First off, because he's a really good punt returner and a pretty darn good DB as well but also because he'll make sure everyone on the field and in the stands knows how good he thinks he is whenever he makes a play.

[heffray]

Hard not to give the slight edge to JMU on this one.

[Professor Chaos]

Hard not to give the slight edge to JMU on this one.
They get the edge but it's not as drastic as you may think it to be. Statistically speaking net punting, punt return, kick return, and kick return defense are essentially a wash with JMU holding a tiny lead in all of those categories.

The only place I think there's a significant advantage is when it comes to clutch FG kicking... I think Crosa is passable but I don't trust him (or the long snapper/holder) if it comes down to needing a FG in crunch time. Rathke is a senior who has made some monster kicks in the past (like his 46 yarder in the Fargodome to break the tie in the 2016 semis and his kick to beat Weber St in the 2017 quarters) but his range is limited (as is Crosa's). I hope Entz has the same testicular fortitude he had late in the 4th quarter in Brookings on 4th downs in this game. The Bison offense is so good that if it's anything inside of 4th and 4 and outside of a 40 yard FG I think the offense has a better chance at converting a first down than Crosa does a FG.

[heffray]

They get the edge but it's not as drastic as you may think it to be. Statistically speaking net punting, punt return, kick return, and kick return defense are essentially a wash with JMU holding a tiny lead in all of those categories.

The only place I think there's a significant advantage is when it comes to clutch FG kicking... I think Crosa is passable but I don't trust him (or the long snapper/holder) if it comes down to needing a FG in crunch time. Rathke is a senior who has made some monster kicks in the past (like his 46 yarder in the Fargodome to break the tie in the 2016 semis and his kick to beat Weber St in the 2017 quarters) but his range is limited (as is Crosa's). I hope Entz has the same testicular fortitude he had late in the 4th quarter in Brookings on 4th downs in this game. The Bison offense is so good that if it's anything inside of 4th and 4 and outside of a 40 yard FG I think the offense has a better chance at converting a first down than Crosa does a FG.

Agree with all of this.

I also heard BMac say that JMU has blocked a total of 9 kicks (I would assume that's punts and FGs) this year, to lead the FCS. I would not be suprised at all to see a block in this game and that could have huge implications.

[IzzyFlexion]

Agree with all of this.

I also heard BMac say that JMU has blocked a total of 9 kicks (I would assume that's punts and FGs) this year, to lead the FCS. I would not be suprised at all to see a block in this game and that could have huge implications.

Their athletics website shows 7 total (3 punts blocked and 4 kicks blocked) Still.....a very big number for this category.

[Professor Chaos]

Agree with all of this.

I also heard BMac say that JMU has blocked a total of 9 kicks (I would assume that's punts and FGs) this year, to lead the FCS. I would not be suprised at all to see a block in this game and that could have huge implications.
Yeah, hopefully Wegner doesn't get the yips back there punting. I think that was Koonce's problem after he got roughed in 2017 (and he was probably a bit hurt too) and that led to him putting his coverage team in some bad situations.

[IzzyFlexion]

JMU punt returner Amos D'Angelo is very dangerous.

In addition to what he has done this season, in 2018, he returned 3 punts for touchdowns and averaged 22 yards per return and had a long of 85.

In 2017, he returned 1 punt for a touchdown and averaged 15.8 yards per return.

[Christopher Moen]

JMU punt returner Amos D'Angelo is very dangerous.

In addition to what he has done this season, in 2018, he returned 3 punts for touchdowns and averaged 22 yards per return and had a long of 85.

In 2017, he returned 1 punt for a touchdown and averaged 15.8 yards per return.

D'Angelo is also pretty dangerous on defense. I watched a lot of their games over Christmas vacation, and during those games, he was ejected in two of them for targeting.

Also, JMU gave up a few TDs on punt/kick-off returns.

[Bison03]

I have the best strategy to beat this......don’t punt, score touchdowns.

[ndsubison1]

Our special teams haven't been real special since Bohl left. He seemed to put more emphasis on it than Klieman or Entz has so far. Still get a kick out of them saying FG's don't beat you and then they send out the FG unit.

Klieman was top notch for special teams

[Hammerhead]

Yeah, but how many 2-point conversion plays does JMU have? :)

[bri-dog]

D'Angelo is also pretty dangerous on defense. I watched a lot of their games over Christmas vacation, and during those games, he was ejected in two of them for targeting.

Also, JMU gave up a few TDs on punt/kick-off returns.

This was D'Angelo in Christmas Vacation.

http://movieactors.com/freezeframes22/ChistmasVacation26.jpeg

[IzzyFlexion]

Yeah, but how many 2-point conversion plays does JMU have? :)

hahahaha.....found it.

Zero 2 point conversions for the Dukes this season......and zero 2 point conversions surrendered.

[IzzyFlexion]

This was D'Angelo in Christmas Vacation.

http://movieactors.com/freezeframes22/ChistmasVacation26.jpeg

So hot back in the day.
I hesitate to request permission from the MODS to post a still shot from her shower scene from European Vacation.
Oh, hell.....you guys know how to do that!

[heffray]

So hot back in the day.
I hesitate to request permission from the MODS to post a still shot from her shower scene from European Vacation.
Oh, hell.....you guys know how to do that!

*waits patiently*

[Christopher Moen]

This was D'Angelo in Christmas Vacation.

http://movieactors.com/freezeframes22/ChistmasVacation26.jpeg

Beverly is a different kind of pretty dangerous - the kind that makes you smile.

[IzzyFlexion]

Not special teams related, but certainly noteworthy:

JMU Red Zone Scores:

73/79 (92%) with 55 being touchdowns (70%).

JMU Red Zone Defense:

23/32 scores allowed (72%) with only 16 touchdowns surrendered (50%).

NDSU Red Zone Scores:

52/62 (84%), with 41 being touchdowns (66%)

NDSU Red Zone Defense:

21/29 scores (72%), allowing only 11 touchdowns (38%).

[Bisonator98]

Klieman was top notch for special teams

I disagree. The man had Koonce punting it 35 yards so we didn't give up any returns!

[IzzyFlexion]

I disagree. The man had Koonce punting it 35 yards so we didn't give up any returns!

I'm sure that our staff and punting team is well aware of what D'Angelo brings to the JMU return game and will punt accordingly.....That will be a very interesting component of this one......Hopefully, the Herd will just keep getting first downs/touchdowns.

[DakotaOkie]

Not special teams related, but certainly noteworthy:

JMU Red Zone Scores:

73/79 (92%) with 55 being touchdowns (70%).

JMU Red Zone Defense:

23/32 scores allowed (72%) with only 16 touchdowns surrendered (50%).

NDSU Red Zone Scores:

52/62 (84%), with 41 being touchdowns (66%)

NDSU Red Zone Defense:

21/29 scores (72%), allowing only 11 touchdowns (38%).

What this stat does not show very directly is how many TDs were scored without a pause at the red zone.

[Professor Chaos]

Another factor with special teams may be the wind on Saturday. The forecast says 15-25 mph winds from the NW. The north side of the stadium is pretty open and with the renovation and big canopy on the south side I'd imagine that the wind will swirl on that end. It'll make FGs even more of an adventure and probably even have an effect of kickoffs and punts.

[heffray]

What this stat does not show very directly is how many TDs were scored without a pause at the red zone.

Are you talking, like, big play TDs? Would be interesting to see 20-35, 35-50, then,50+

[IzzyFlexion]

Are you talking, like, big play TDs? Would be interesting to see 20-35, 35-50, then,50+

Here are the numbers for JMU's touchdowns this season. (Big plays are bolded)

vs West Virginia 1 touchdown 9y run

vs Saint Francis 5 touchdowns 2y run, 45y pass, 9y run, 19y pass, 2y pass

vs Morgan State 9 touchdowns 9y pass, 1y run, 48y pass, 50y pass, 19y pass, 5y run, 7y pass, 43y KR, 9y pass

vs Chattanooga 4 touchdowns 9y run, 13y run, 48y pass, 1y run

vs Elon 6 touchdowns 6y run, 5y run, 0y fumble rec, 3y run, 2y run

vs Stony Brook 3 touchdowns 18y pass, 1y run, 34y pass

vs Villanova 5 touchdowns 2y pass, 5y pass, 26y pass, 83y pick 6, 69y run

vs Wm & Mary 5 touchdowns 16y pass, 1y run, 1y run, 37y pass, 1y run

vs Towson 3 touchdowns 8y run, 9y pass, 60y pass

vs N. Hamp 7 touchdowns 58y pass, 24y run, 12y run, 1y run, 20y run, 3y run, 33y run

vs Richmond 6 touchdowns 80y pass, 3y run, 11y pass, 3y pass, 10y run, 4y run

vs Rhode Island 7 touchdowns 1y pass, 85y PR, 4y run, 44y run, 3y run, 39y pass, 52y run

vs Monmouth 9 touchdowns 49y pass, 1y run, 21y pass, 6y run 1y run, 5y run, 9y run, 11y pass, 79y Pick 6

vs N. Iowa 2 touchdowns 15y pass, 1y run

vs Weber State 3 touchdowns 18y pass, 1y run, 34y pass

[heffray]

Here are the numbers for JMU's touchdowns this season. (Big plays are bolded)

vs West Virginia 1 touchdown 9y run

vs Saint Francis 5 touchdowns 2y run, 45y pass, 9y run, 19y pass, 2y pass

vs Morgan State 9 touchdowns 9y pass, 1y run, 48y pass, 50y pass, 19y pass, 5y run, 7y pass, 43y KR, 9y pass

vs Chattanooga 4 touchdowns 9y run, 13y run, 48y pass, 1y run

vs Elon 6 touchdowns 6y run, 5y run, 0y fumble rec, 3y run, 2y run

vs Stony Brook 3 touchdowns 18y pass, 1y run, 34y pass

vs Villanova 5 touchdowns 2y pass, 5y pass, 26y pass, 83y pick 6, 69y run

vs Wm & Mary 5 touchdowns 16y pass, 1y run, 1y run, 37y pass, 1y run

vs Towson 3 touchdowns 8y run, 9y pass, 60y pass

vs N. Hamp 7 touchdowns 58y pass, 24y run, 12y run, 1y run, 20y run, 3y run, 33y run

vs Richmond 6 touchdowns 80y pass, 3y run, 11y pass, 3y pass, 10y run, 4y run

vs Rhode Island 7 touchdowns 1y pass, 85y PR, 4y run, 44y run, 3y run, 39y pass, 52y run

vs Monmouth 9 touchdowns 49y pass, 1y run, 21y pass, 6y run 1y run, 5y run, 9y run, 11y pass, 79y Pick 6

vs N. Iowa 2 touchdowns 15y pass, 1y run

vs Weber State 3 touchdowns 18y pass, 1y run, 34y pass


You're awesome, Izzy.

Without counting Special Teams or Defensive scores, here's the breakdown (check my math if you want):

JMU TDs: 67 total
Red Zone (inside 20): 49 – 73%
20-35: 5 – 7.5%
35-50: 7 – 10.5%
+50: 6 – 9%

[Vet70]

This thread has turned into too much math.

[BiZon22]

Does anyone have our big play stat? I feel like all of our TDs are big plays lol

[heffray]

This thread has turned into too much math.

It is unlikely that we will gain insight into Saturday at this point, but I’m just interested to see it.

[heffray]

This thread has turned into too much math.

I’ll maybe walk that back a bit. If we can learn anything, it’s that JMU is equally as likely to score from the Red Zone as from outside the Red Zone (more likely outside if you include Special Teams and Defensive scores).

[heffray]

Does anyone have our big play stat? I feel like all of our TDs are big plays lol

In Izzy we trust.

[IzzyFlexion]

NDSU Touchdowns this season (Big plays bolded)

vs Butler 7 TDs 33y run, 47y pass, 15y pass, 26y pass, 3y pass, 36y run, 61y run, 7y run

vs UND 5 TDs 3y run, 8y run, 2y pass, 34y pass, 14y run

vs Delaware 6 TDs 1y run, 24y pass, 5y pass, 4y pass, 10y run, 20y run

vs UC Davis 3 TDs 2y run, 1y run, 10y run

vs Ill State #1 5 TDs 35y pass, 53y run, 4y run, 42y pass, 7y pass

vs UNI 6 TDs 36y pass, 19y pass, 30y pass, 1y run, 37y run, 50y run

vs Mo. State 3 TDs 21y run, 1y run, 1y run

vs SDSU 3 TDs 59y run, 6y pass, 71y run

vs Youngstown 8 TDs 9y run, 69y pass, 6y pass, 6y pass, 4y run, 94y KO return, 75y run, 30y run

vs Western Ill 8 TDs 1y run, 10y run, 23y run, 88y pass, 51y pass, 1y run, 65y run, 45y run

USD 7 TDs 2y run, 7y run, 32y pass, 43y pass, 7y run, 4y run, 3y pass

vs Southern Ill 3 TDs 44y run, 8y run, 34y run

vs Nicholls 5 TDs 55y run, 43y pass, 3y pass, 6y run, 3y run

vs Ill State #2 0 TDs (WTF!)

vs Mt State 6 TDs 8y run, 75y pass, 70y run, 6y pass, 73y pass, 6y run

[BiZon22]

NDSU Touchdowns this season (Big plays bolded)

vs Butler7 TDs33y run, 47y pass, 15y pass, 26y pass, 3y pass, 36y run, 61y run, 7y run

vs UND5 TDs3y run, 8y run, 2y pass, 34y pass, 14y run

vs Delaware6 TDs1y run, 24y pass, 5y pass, 4y pass, 10y run, 20y run

vs UC Davis3 TDs2y run, 1y run, 10y run

vs Ill State #15 TDs35y pass, 53y run, 4y run, 42y pass, 7y pass

vs UNI6 TDs36y pass, 19y pass, 30y pass, 1y run, 37y run, 50y run

vs Mo. State3 TDs21y run, 1y run, 1y run

vs SDSU3 TDs59y run, 6y pass, 71y run

vs Youngstown8 TDs9y run, 69y pass, 6y pass, 6y pass, 4y run, 94y KO return, 75y run, 30y run

vs Western Ill8 TDs1y run, 10y run, 23y run, 88y pass, 51y pass, 1y run, 65y run, 45y run

USD7 TDs2y run, 7y run, 32y pass, 43y pass, 7y run, 4y run, 3y pass

vs Southern Ill3 TDs44y run, 8y run, 34y run

vs Nicholls5 TDs55y run, 43y pass, 3y pass, 6y run, 3y run

vs Ill State #20 TDs (WTF!)

vs Mt State6 TDs8y run, 75y pass, 70y run, 6y pass, 73y pass, 6y run

I tried to do a breakdown but my head hurt from trying to do it on my phone. I’ll leave that to someone else lol

[heffray]

I tried to do a breakdown but my head hurt from trying to do it on my phone. I’ll leave that to someone else lol

On it. Give me momentos.

[heffray]

NDSU Touchdowns this season (Big plays bolded)

vs Butler 7 TDs 33y run, 47y pass, 15y pass, 26y pass, 3y pass, 36y run, 61y run, 7y run

vs UND 5 TDs 3y run, 8y run, 2y pass, 34y pass, 14y run

vs Delaware 6 TDs 1y run, 24y pass, 5y pass, 4y pass, 10y run, 20y run

vs UC Davis 3 TDs 2y run, 1y run, 10y run

vs Ill State #1 5 TDs 35y pass, 53y run, 4y run, 42y pass, 7y pass

vs UNI 6 TDs 36y pass, 19y pass, 30y pass, 1y run, 37y run, 50y run

vs Mo. State 3 TDs 21y run, 1y run, 1y run

vs SDSU 3 TDs 59y run, 6y pass, 71y run

vs Youngstown 8 TDs 9y run, 69y pass, 6y pass, 6y pass, 4y run, 94y KO return, 75y run, 30y run

vs Western Ill 8 TDs 1y run, 10y run, 23y run, 88y pass, 51y pass, 1y run, 65y run, 45y run

USD 7 TDs 2y run, 7y run, 32y pass, 43y pass, 7y run, 4y run, 3y pass

vs Southern Ill 3 TDs 44y run, 8y run, 34y run

vs Nicholls 5 TDs 55y run, 43y pass, 3y pass, 6y run, 3y run

vs Ill State #2 0 TDs (WTF!)

vs Mt State 6 TDs 8y run, 75y pass, 70y run, 6y pass, 73y pass, 6y run

NDSU TDs: 75 total
Red Zone (inside 20): 42 – 56%
20-35: 9 – 12%
35-50: 10 – 13.5%
+50: 14 – 18.5%

Stats of note: 1 Special Teams score, 0 Defensive scores

[heffray]

NDSU TDs: 75 total
Red Zone (inside 20): 42 – 56%
20-35: 9 – 12%
35-50: 10 – 13.5%
+50: 14 – 18.5%

Stats of note: 1 Special Teams score, 0 Defensive scores

Compared to JMU: 2 Special Teams scores, 3 Defensive scores

[IzzyFlexion]

Just noticed that JMU allowed only 61 rushing yards per game. (this may have been reported on BV already, IDK)…..but that's a tiny number.

[BiZon22]

Just noticed that JMU allowed only 61 rushing yards per game. (this may have been reported on BV already, IDK)…..but that's a tiny number.

Trey will have a rushing TD longer than their average allowed. Calling it

[IzzyFlexion]

Trey will have a rushing TD longer than their average allowed. Calling it

atta boy!...….

[MankatoBison]

Just noticed that JMU allowed only 61 rushing yards per game. (this may have been reported on BV already, IDK)…..but that's a tiny number.

Another way to look at it....

"Imagine allowing 61 yards rushing every game while playing in the CAA"
Is there rush defense good? ABSOLUTELY. In reality, in the valley, thats much closer, or eclipsing 100 yds/game.

I think we get between 150-200 rushing. I think the only way we go over that is if we have 1-2 50+ runs somehow. This is going to be a brawl

[Stary2k11]

Just noticed that JMU allowed only 61 rushing yards per game. (this may have been reported on BV already, IDK)…..but that's a tiny number.

JMU's opponents averaged 144.26 yards/game for 4.09 yards/carry.
When playing JMU they were held to 71 yards/game for 2.54 yards/carry.

Thus, JMU holds opponents to about 49% of their typical rushing yards/game and 62% of their typical yards/carry.

When broken down by opponents' Sagarin rating:

Opponent > 60 rating: 46% of typical yards/game and 78% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 50-60 rating: 49% of typical yards/game and 57% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 40-50 rating: 47% of typical yards/game and 61% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 30-40 rating: 44% of typical yards/game and 47% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent < 30 rating: 65% of typical yards/game and 71% of typical yard/carry (gotta be garbage time stuff vs. Morgan State)

The Bison will be in the >60 rating category (highest opponent JMU will have faced to-date).

If JMU can hold the Bison to similar results as their 3 other teams at 60+ rating, the Bison will end with around 134 yards rushing on 4.92 yards/attempt.

Something has to budge there. And I would bet almost anything it will be the rushing yards. If we can rush for anywhere near 4.92 yards/attempt I say we win going away and our rushing yards will be well above 134 yards.

Of note: the Bison average 85 yards more per game and 1.1 yards/carry than JMUs highest rushing opponent to-date (Monmouth) and 150 yards more per game and 2.5 yards/carry more than JMUs opponent average.

Also of interest: their top 3 opponents to-date (WVU, Weber, UNI) combined for an average of 111 rushing yards/game at 3.26 yards/carry over their entire seasons. So although they were the 3 highest rated opponents, they were very mediocre rushing teams.

For comparison NDSU is pulling over 288 rushing yards/game at 6.41 yards/carry. Almost 3 times the average yards as JMUs toughest opponents, and almost double the yards/carry.

They will not have seen an opponent with anywhere near the rushing attack the Bison will bring.

[heffray]

Trey will have a rushing TD longer than their average allowed. Calling it

Should go in he bold predictions thread...

OR SHOULD IT?!.......... *Dr Evil pinky to mouth look”

[heffray]

JMU's opponents averaged 144.26 yards/game for 4.09 yards/carry.
When playing JMU they were held to 71 yards/game for 2.54 yards/carry.

Thus, JMU holds opponents to about 49% of their typical rushing yards/game and 62% of their typical yards/carry.

When broken down by opponents' Sagarin rating:

Opponent > 60 rating: 46% of typical yards/game and 78% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 50-60 rating: 49% of typical yards/game and 57% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 40-50 rating: 47% of typical yards/game and 61% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 30-40 rating: 44% of typical yards/game and 47% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent < 30 rating: 65% of typical yards/game and 71% of typical yard/carry (gotta be garbage time stuff vs. Morgan State)

The Bison will be in the >60 rating category (highest opponent JMU will have faced to-date).

If JMU can hold the Bison to similar results as their 3 other teams at 60+ rating, the Bison will end with around 134 yards rushing on 4.92 yards/attempt.

Something has to budge there. And I would bet almost anything it will be the rushing yards. If we can rush for anywhere near 4.92 yards/attempt I say we win going away and our rushing yards will be well above 134 yards.

Of note: the Bison average 85 yards more per game and 1.1 yards/carry than JMUs highest rushing opponent to-date (Monmouth) and 150 yards more per game and 2.5 yards/carry more than JMUs opponent average.

Also of interest: their top 3 opponents to-date (WVU, Weber, UNI) combined for an average of 111 rushing yards/game at 3.26 yards/carry over their entire seasons. So although they were the 3 highest rated opponents, they were very mediocre rushing teams.

For comparison NDSU is pulling over 288 rushing yards/game at 6.41 yards/carry. Almost 3 times the average yards as JMUs toughest opponents, and almost double the yards/carry.

They will not have seen an opponent with anywhere near the rushing attack the Bison will bring.

Great analysis here.

[Stary2k11]

Great analysis here.

On top of that, the Bison enter with the nation’s most efficient passing offense. The deeper you dig with stats, the more obvious it becomes that the game is NDSUs to lose.

[heffray]

On top of that, the Bison enter with the nation’s most efficient passing offense. The deeper you dig with stats, the more obvious it becomes that the game is NDSUs to lose.

I think you can look at a collection of stats 1 way and a different collection of stats another and reach separate conclusions. This leads me to believe that these are 2 evenly matched teams and it’s going to be a great game that could go either way. If this thread is showing us anything, it’s that you have to get pretty granular to find an edge either way.

[GreenfieldBison]

JMU's opponents averaged 144.26 yards/game for 4.09 yards/carry.
When playing JMU they were held to 71 yards/game for 2.54 yards/carry.

Thus, JMU holds opponents to about 49% of their typical rushing yards/game and 62% of their typical yards/carry.

When broken down by opponents' Sagarin rating:

Opponent > 60 rating: 46% of typical yards/game and 78% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 50-60 rating: 49% of typical yards/game and 57% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 40-50 rating: 47% of typical yards/game and 61% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 30-40 rating: 44% of typical yards/game and 47% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent < 30 rating: 65% of typical yards/game and 71% of typical yard/carry (gotta be garbage time stuff vs. Morgan State)

The Bison will be in the >60 rating category (highest opponent JMU will have faced to-date).

If JMU can hold the Bison to similar results as their 3 other teams at 60+ rating, the Bison will end with around 134 yards rushing on 4.92 yards/attempt.

Something has to budge there. And I would bet almost anything it will be the rushing yards. If we can rush for anywhere near 4.92 yards/attempt I say we win going away and our rushing yards will be well above 134 yards.

Of note: the Bison average 85 yards more per game and 1.1 yards/carry than JMUs highest rushing opponent to-date (Monmouth) and 150 yards more per game and 2.5 yards/carry more than JMUs opponent average.

Also of interest: their top 3 opponents to-date (WVU, Weber, UNI) combined for an average of 111 rushing yards/game at 3.26 yards/carry over their entire seasons. So although they were the 3 highest rated opponents, they were very mediocre rushing teams.

For comparison NDSU is pulling over 288 rushing yards/game at 6.41 yards/carry. Almost 3 times the average yards as JMUs toughest opponents, and almost double the yards/carry.

They will not have seen an opponent with anywhere near the rushing attack the Bison will bring.

Have you been reading Ron Dobervich blog?

[Stary2k11]

Have you been reading Ron Dobervich blog?

Not sure what that is? If this a joke of some sort it’s going over my head!

[oldmantutters]

Not sure what that is? If this a joke of some sort it’s going over my head!

It's a fantastic blog by a former Bison. Search for Kick About Bison.

[Stary2k11]

It's a fantastic blog by a former Bison. Search for Kick About Bison.

Good stuff. I can see that we took a similar approach in analyzing some of these stats.

[GreenfieldBison]

Good stuff. I can see that we took a similar approach in analyzing some of these stats.

Please put me down as an enthusiastic supporter of both of your sets of conclusions.

Thanks for the help here Oldmantutters

[IzzyFlexion]

2019 Season: JMU

Fumbles: 22
Fumbles Lost: 10
Intercepted 5 times.

Opponents Fumbles: 21
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 9
Opponents Intercepted by JMU 17 times.

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +11

2019 Season: NDSU

Fumbles: 12
Fumbles Lost: 5
Intercepted 1 time

Opponents Fumbles: 18
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 6
Opponents Intercepted by NDSU 16 times

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +16

[heffray]

2019 Season: JMU

Fumbles: 22
Fumbles Lost: 10
Intercepted 5 times.

Opponents Fumbles: 21
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 9
Opponents Intercepted by JMU 17 times.

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +11

2019 Season: NDSU

Fumbles: 12
Fumbles Lost: 5
Intercepted 1 time

Opponents Fumbles: 18
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 6
Opponents Intercepted by NDSU 16 times

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +16

I think this is the big one... Obvious advantage to NDSU here.

[bruinbison]

JMU's opponents averaged 144.26 yards/game for 4.09 yards/carry.
When playing JMU they were held to 71 yards/game for 2.54 yards/carry.

Thus, JMU holds opponents to about 49% of their typical rushing yards/game and 62% of their typical yards/carry.

When broken down by opponents' Sagarin rating:

Opponent > 60 rating: 46% of typical yards/game and 78% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 50-60 rating: 49% of typical yards/game and 57% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 40-50 rating: 47% of typical yards/game and 61% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 30-40 rating: 44% of typical yards/game and 47% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent < 30 rating: 65% of typical yards/game and 71% of typical yard/carry (gotta be garbage time stuff vs. Morgan State)

The Bison will be in the >60 rating category (highest opponent JMU will have faced to-date).

If JMU can hold the Bison to similar results as their 3 other teams at 60+ rating, the Bison will end with around 134 yards rushing on 4.92 yards/attempt.

Something has to budge there. And I would bet almost anything it will be the rushing yards. If we can rush for anywhere near 4.92 yards/attempt I say we win going away and our rushing yards will be well above 134 yards.

Of note: the Bison average 85 yards more per game and 1.1 yards/carry than JMUs highest rushing opponent to-date (Monmouth) and 150 yards more per game and 2.5 yards/carry more than JMUs opponent average.

Also of interest: their top 3 opponents to-date (WVU, Weber, UNI) combined for an average of 111 rushing yards/game at 3.26 yards/carry over their entire seasons. So although they were the 3 highest rated opponents, they were very mediocre rushing teams.

For comparison NDSU is pulling over 288 rushing yards/game at 6.41 yards/carry. Almost 3 times the average yards as JMUs toughest opponents, and almost double the yards/carry.

They will not have seen an opponent with anywhere near the rushing attack the Bison will bring.

Thanks for the analysis everyone!
Good stuff Izzy & Heffray & PC & all.
Special humor awards to Bridog on the D’Angelo analytics and Vet70 on migraine mitigation

Am looking forward to the Bison not being shorthanded on special teams today, as compared to 2017 against JMU. IIRC three + ST regulars were injured in the semis and barely played (Jimmy Football) or did not play, in the championship. Plus, I still have nightmares about that punter injury. Yikes