Mythbusters: Bison Effect Version

[JSUBison]

Spin off from the Davis thread. I was wondering what the actual numbers are. Yes Davis did lose to Montana, but those sad sacks at UN_ did beat SHSU after playing the Bison. What is the truth to this? Is there a pattern of teams losing their next game, or is it selective memory, we remember the teams losing but forget about the teams that win?

Current records of opponents by year of their next game after playing NDSU, known on Bisonville as "The Bison Effect". I went back to 2010, the start of the playoff era. Thanks for making me waste an hour of my Sunday morning digging this shit up.

2010 7-4
2011 6-4
2012 3-8
2013 5-5
2014 5-5
2015 5-5
2016 8-2
2017 3-7
2018 6-4
2019 3-1

Overall record of teams following a Bison game: 51-45

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/507b1edc84ae362b5e79d582/1365609730560-4WF0KXNVKHTUD7RQP9G5/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kG2Dh1PIDqk_IwXlafgOzDQUqsxRUq qbr1mOJYKfIPR7LoDQ9mXPOjoJoqy81S2I8N_N4V1vUb5AoIII bLZhVYxCRW4BPu10St3TBAUQYVKcfVZfEeDIrTKWQ-3AwDeQhTxD9AiQlKNjO0v94Uv3p46q7LEgQhnyFZEtP-dkxqC9/mythbusted_cropped.jpg?format=1500w

[scottietohottie]

I thought we only went back 8 years? Now im just confused.

[EC8CH]

Feels like wins vs the spread should be considered to account for relative strength of the teams they played the following week.

[scottietohottie]

Check out Youngstown state 2011.

[scottietohottie]

And even if the other team won the next week it doesn't necessarily mean they played their best game. Maybe a sluggish quarter or half. The fighting hawks barely beat Sam Houston. You could say the refs and Sam Houston gave that away.

[El_Chapo]

38-37 since 2011 though

[scottietohottie]

What's are record after a bye week?

[Professor Chaos]

I think there's some truth to the fact that teams play worse the week after they play the Bison than the week they play the Bison but it's not nearly as some on here think it is. I'd attribute it more to the natural swings every team has throughout the season where they'll play really well in a couple games, really poorly in a couple games, and the rest are their "average". The thing is every team is jacked to play the Bison so it's pretty rare that they have a poor game against NDSU whereas in the games following the NDSU game they go back to their normal stinker frequency.

That's my theory.

[JMUVtFan]

Feels like wins vs the spread should be considered to account for relative strength of the teams they played the following week.

This makes sense to me.

[JMUVtFan]

This makes sense to me.

Actually potentially need to weigh home vs. away and also final ranking. For example Montana was ranked 18 in the Stats poll. I bet they'll be higher this week. So does that ranking perceived ability not also affect the spread? Too much work for me :p

[89MTBISON]

Spin off from the Davis thread. I was wondering what the actual numbers are. Yes Davis did lose to Montana, but those sad sacks at UN_ did beat SHSU after playing the Bison. What is the truth to this? Is there a pattern of teams losing their next game, or is it selective memory, we remember the teams losing but forget about the teams that win?

Current records of opponents by year of their next game after playing NDSU, known on Bisonville as "The Bison Effect". I went back to 2010, the start of the playoff era. Thanks for making me waste an hour of my Sunday morning digging this shit up.

2010 7-4
2011 6-4
2012 3-8
2013 5-5
2014 5-5
2015 5-5
2016 8-2
2017 3-7
2018 6-4
2019 3-1

Overall record of teams following a Bison game: 51-45

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/507b1edc84ae362b5e79d582/1365609730560-4WF0KXNVKHTUD7RQP9G5/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kG2Dh1PIDqk_IwXlafgOzDQUqsxRUq qbr1mOJYKfIPR7LoDQ9mXPOjoJoqy81S2I8N_N4V1vUb5AoIII bLZhVYxCRW4BPu10St3TBAUQYVKcfVZfEeDIrTKWQ-3AwDeQhTxD9AiQlKNjO0v94Uv3p46q7LEgQhnyFZEtP-dkxqC9/mythbusted_cropped.jpg?format=1500w

Thanks for doing this. Gotta admit that the post-Bison hangover thing is largely debunked by the facts. Lots of "big" games in a football season. Of course, there have been 31(?) times over the last 8 years when there's been no "next" game for our opponents.

[Hammerhead]

What if the winning percentage of our opponents for the year is higher than the 51-45 following the week they play the Bison?

[Twincitybizon]

What if the winning percentage of our opponents for the year is higher than the 51-45 following the week they play the Bison?

This is my thought as well, can't say it's debunked workout comparing it to anything????

[OrygunBison]

This is my thought as well, can't say it's debunked workout comparing it to anything????

Of course you can. Don't overanalyze it or you will just seek out the math that justifies your opinion. You can manipulate the equation to press ANY agenda. For instance, I have clear mathematical evidence that shows the Jackrabbits sucked last year, suck this year, and will suck forever.

[89MTBISON]

What if the winning percentage of our opponents for the year is higher than the 51-45 following the week they play the Bison?

It's been called a hangover, how much do you drink that the hangover lasts a year?!?!?

[southcliffbison]

I had one that lasted 3 days...………….you'd think that I learned my Lesson...…...

[stevdock]

I think there's a lot more to that record than meets the eye as you definitely need to look at who these teams play the week after NDSU plays them. First example I could think of was Butler as they played Indiana Wesleyan the next week, which is an NAIA school. Or in other words chances are a team they should beat, but still had to go to overtime to get it done. How many conferences games were followed up with a Missouri State or Indiana State (most years), etc where a good team could kind of sleep walk through the game and get the win? I think the Bison Effect is definitely in full effect, the stats just didn't back it up at first look as expected.

Plus stats can be a terrible thing to look at when you get them yourself because you can make them look however you want to justify what you want them to say.

[bisonaudit]

It's been called a hangover, how much do you drink that the hangover lasts a year?!?!?

I think the idea here is to use the season long records as a baseline to compare to the record during the hangover week.

[bisonaudit]

Actually potentially need to weigh home vs. away and also final ranking. For example Montana was ranked 18 in the Stats poll. I bet they'll be higher this week. So does that ranking perceived ability not also affect the spread? Too much work for me :p

As far as rankings effecting the spread, it’d speculate that it depends how perceptive the voters are and how efficient the betting market is.

[89MTBISON]

I think the idea here is to use the season long records as a baseline to compare to the record during the hangover week.

.......if only athletes obeyed the laws of the spreadsheet. Follow the rules you mindless rubes!

[GreenfieldBison]

Of course you can. Don't overanalyze it or you will just seek out the math that justifies your opinion. You can manipulate the equation to press ANY agenda. For instance, I have clear mathematical evidence that shows the Jackrabbits sucked last year, suck this year, and will suck forever.

Please publish...

[stevdock]

Spin off from the Davis thread. I was wondering what the actual numbers are. Yes Davis did lose to Montana, but those sad sacks at UN_ did beat SHSU after playing the Bison. What is the truth to this? Is there a pattern of teams losing their next game, or is it selective memory, we remember the teams losing but forget about the teams that win?

Current records of opponents by year of their next game after playing NDSU, known on Bisonville as "The Bison Effect". I went back to 2010, the start of the playoff era. Thanks for making me waste an hour of my Sunday morning digging this shit up.

2010 7-4
2011 6-4
2012 3-8
2013 5-5
2014 5-5
2015 5-5
2016 8-2
2017 3-7
2018 6-4
2019 3-1

Overall record of teams following a Bison game: 51-45

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/507b1edc84ae362b5e79d582/1365609730560-4WF0KXNVKHTUD7RQP9G5/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kG2Dh1PIDqk_IwXlafgOzDQUqsxRUq qbr1mOJYKfIPR7LoDQ9mXPOjoJoqy81S2I8N_N4V1vUb5AoIII bLZhVYxCRW4BPu10St3TBAUQYVKcfVZfEeDIrTKWQ-3AwDeQhTxD9AiQlKNjO0v94Uv3p46q7LEgQhnyFZEtP-dkxqC9/mythbusted_cropped.jpg?format=1500w

But you can make stats look anyway you want, so why not add in the next game played for every game? Montana St, Colgate, SDSU and EWU all lost their next game after their playoff loss to us, and only 3 of them were against P5 teams ;). Also add in Southern Illinois as regular season finale was their end to the season and they lost their opener. So 2018 I don't see a 6-4 record, I see a 6-9 record ;)

[IndyBison]

I think there's a lot more to that record than meets the eye as you definitely need to look at who these teams play the week after NDSU plays them. First example I could think of was Butler as they played Indiana Wesleyan the next week, which is an NAIA school. Or in other words chances are a team they should beat, but still had to go to overtime to get it done. How many conferences games were followed up with a Missouri State or Indiana State (most years), etc where a good team could kind of sleep walk through the game and get the win? I think the Bison Effect is definitely in full effect, the stats just didn't back it up at first look as expected.

Plus stats can be a terrible thing to look at when you get them yourself because you can make them look however you want to justify what you want them to say.

Butler was definitely not expected to beat Indiana Wesleyan. The Pioneer League is fairly equivalent with D3 teams as they don't provide athletic scholarships for football. They are generally better schools and with the D1 aspect of other sports can use that to recruit a little better player, but they are essentially very good D3 teams.

In most areas NAIA is slightly above D3 because of the ability to offer some athletic scholarships. In our area that is definitely true. The conference IWU plays in (MSFA) is the MVFC of NAIA. They have 3 of the top 6 teams and 5 of the top 20. They have had a team in 9 of the last 15 national championship games (and 6 of the last 7 prior to last year winning 5 of them). And teams like Taylor and IWU (the two teams Butler played after NDSU) aren't in that top 20 group, but they would likely win our local D3 conference. Butler is very similar to those middle MSFA teams so they are usually very competitive. It's still pretty good college football, but it's not at the level of the top of the MVFC.

[HerdBot]

A 51-45 record is hardly quality. That's barely above 500