Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

[Gladiator Dad]

OK, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a little on this one but in looking long range at what the New Big XII could expect for AQ Spots at this year's Big XII Tournament I have comprised my guess at this point of the season of how many we can expect. I hope BigBird and Andrege can add to this since they usually have a little more insight on these things than I do but here is what I think at this point of the season.

125 4-5 AQ Spots with at this point of the season I think it's a solid 4
133 3-4 AQ Spots with a Solid 3, I think this can go to 4 prior to end of the season
141 4-5 AQ Spots with a Solid 4 at this point of the game
149 2-3 AQ Spots with a Solid 2 at this point but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up to 4
157 3-4 AQ Spots with a Solid 3 at this point, again here I expect to see this number at around 4
165 4-5 AQ Spots with a Solid 4 at this point but this number could go to 5 pretty easy
174 3-4 AQ Spots with a Solid 3 at this point
184 1-2 AQ Spots, this weight is going to be a tough one when it comes to AQ spots
197 4-5 AQ Spots with a Solid 4 at this point with a good possibility of that 5th spot
285 1-2 AQ Spots, at this point another problem weight to get qualified at in my opinion

[Big Bird]

It's early, but this is how I see it (Locks=will get one, probable=75% chance, Borderline=50% and rest of the season will determine, longshot=25% max):
125- 4 Locks: Lamont UVU, Piccinninni OkSt, Schwarm UNI, Moisey WVU. 1 Probable: Moody OU. 2 Borderline: Bianchi NDSU and Brown SDSU
133- 3 Locks: Gross SDSU, Bridges WYO, Brock OkSt. 1 Probable: Montoya UNC. 3 Borderline: Schmitt WVU, Sykora NDSU, Parker ISU. 2 longshot: Rubio OU and Jiminez AFA
141- 3 Locks: Meredith Wyo, Heil OkSt, and Alber UNI. 1 Probable: Longo OU. 1 Borderline: Storr ISU. 1 Longshot: Monserrat WVU
149- 2 Locks: OkSt starter (Probably Geo), and Thomsen UNI. 3 Probable: Degen ISU, Gliva NDSU, and Jefferies OU. 2 Borderline: Olivas FSU and Fate UNC. 2 Longshot: Lamont UVU and Turner Wyo.
157- 3 Locks: Ream NDSU, Zilverberg SDSU, Colgan WYO. 0 Probable. 2 Borderline (although I wouls put Mossing AFA here too): Thomas OU and Blaylock OkSt. Longshot: Moore WVU
165- 4 Locks: Rogers OSU, Fogarty NDSU, Ashworth WYO, Romero UVU. 2 Probable: Torres UNC and Barnes OU. 0 Borderline
174- 4 Locks: Lujan UNI, Smith OkSt, Kocer SDSU, Mejias OU. 0 Probable. 1 Borderline: Bastian UVU. 1 Longshot: Pope Wyo
184- 1 Lock: Foster UNI. 2 Probable: Moore OkSt and Gabel UNC. 1 Borderline: Mueller SDSU. 1 Longshot: Jantzer UVU
197- 4 Locks (although if OkSt let Marsden keep wrestling duals here and then entered Weigel for B12 time, it would be 5): Rotert SDSU, Holschlag UNI, Seeley UNC, Smith WVU. 0 Probable. 1 Possible: Orndorff UVU. 1 Longshot: Eaton NDSU
HWT- 1 Lock: White OkSt. 1 Probable: Dennison UVU. 0 Borderline. 3 Longshots: Harrington ISU, Stibral NDSU, Isley UNI

I just did this very quickly so I probably missed some guys.

I think you're pretty close with all of it, although I have the B12 getting more than you at most weights.

One big thing that is preventing clarity, is the minimum D1 match number. At this point in the season, a lot of good wrestlers don't yet have 17 matches vs D1 competition at the given weight, which is required to earn an AQ spot

[Big Bird]

I missed AJ Nevills Fresno State HWT, who is 50-50 to earn a spot.
Drake Foster made a huge jump and he's probably at a little less than 50% to earn one

[Gladiator Dad]

I came across this on twitter. It breaks down a change in the AQ Process.

8271

[Big Bird]

Flo's predictions. 40 spots for the B12 https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6117019-five-events-are-live-on-flowrestling

I believe the actual allocations come out on the 22nd. If Flo is correct, 133 sucks. Brock, bridges, and Gross are heavy favorites and all top 10 guys. Getting a 4th there would be huge for Cam Sykora.

[RadioBison]

Flo's predictions. 40 spots for the B12 https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6117019-five-events-are-live-on-flowrestling

I believe the actual allocations come out on the 22nd. If Flo is correct, 133 sucks. Brock, bridges, and Gross are heavy favorites and all top 10 guys. Getting a 4th there would be huge for Cam Sykora.

I think we could still get 4 or even 5 AQ spots at 133. I'm basing this on the last RPI and Coaches Panel, so I'm not factoring in how those might have changed. Nobody on either of those lists was affected by too few matches for RPI. I'm not sure that I have accounted the winning percentage correctly, because I didn't go out of my way to adjust for D1 redshirts. With all of that in said, they could slide the thresholds to 27-27-73, which would qualify 27 guys, plus 1 for SoCon. They want to leave at least 4 at large spots, and this would leave 5. They could probably even slide it to 28-28-72, which would pick up the 5th spot for Big 12.

27-27-73

Big12: 4
BigTen: 7
EIWA: 3
ACC: 5
MAC: 4
Pac12: 2
EWL: 2
SoCon: 1 (not qualified)

28-28-72

Big12: 5
BigTen: 7
EIWA: 3
ACC: 5
MAC: 4
Pac12: 2
EWL: 2
SoCon: 1 (not qualified)

[larson311]

It's early, but this is how I see it (Locks=will get one, probable=75% chance, Borderline=50% and rest of the season will determine, longshot=25% max):
125- 4 Locks: Lamont UVU, Piccinninni OkSt, Schwarm UNI, Moisey WVU. 1 Probable: Moody OU. 2 Borderline: Bianchi NDSU and Brown SDSU
133- 3 Locks: Gross SDSU, Bridges WYO, Brock OkSt. 1 Probable: Montoya UNC. 3 Borderline: Schmitt WVU, Sykora NDSU, Parker ISU. 2 longshot: Rubio OU and Jiminez AFA
141- 3 Locks: Meredith Wyo, Heil OkSt, and Alber UNI. 1 Probable: Longo OU. 1 Borderline: Storr ISU. 1 Longshot: Monserrat WVU
149- 2 Locks: OkSt starter (Probably Geo), and Thomsen UNI. 3 Probable: Degen ISU, Gliva NDSU, and Jefferies OU. 2 Borderline: Olivas FSU and Fate UNC. 2 Longshot: Lamont UVU and Turner Wyo.
157- 3 Locks: Ream NDSU, Zilverberg SDSU, Colgan WYO. 0 Probable. 2 Borderline (although I wouls put Mossing AFA here too): Thomas OU and Blaylock OkSt. Longshot: Moore WVU
165- 4 Locks: Rogers OSU, Fogarty NDSU, Ashworth WYO, Romero UVU. 2 Probable: Torres UNC and Barnes OU. 0 Borderline
174- 4 Locks: Lujan UNI, Smith OkSt, Kocer SDSU, Mejias OU. 0 Probable. 1 Borderline: Bastian UVU. 1 Longshot: Pope Wyo
184- 1 Lock: Foster UNI. 2 Probable: Moore OkSt and Gabel UNC. 1 Borderline: Mueller SDSU. 1 Longshot: Jantzer UVU
197- 4 Locks (although if OkSt let Marsden keep wrestling duals here and then entered Weigel for B12 time, it would be 5): Rotert SDSU, Holschlag UNI, Seeley UNC, Smith WVU. 0 Probable. 1 Possible: Orndorff UVU. 1 Longshot: Eaton NDSU
HWT- 1 Lock: White OkSt. 1 Probable: Dennison UVU. 0 Borderline. 3 Longshots: Harrington ISU, Stibral NDSU, Isley UNI

I just did this very quickly so I probably missed some guys.

I think you're pretty close with all of it, although I have the B12 getting more than you at most weights.

One big thing that is preventing clarity, is the minimum D1 match number. At this point in the season, a lot of good wrestlers don't yet have 17 matches vs D1 competition at the given weight, which is required to earn an AQ spot

Here are the Big 12 AQ's
125 - 7
133 - 5
141 - 3
149 - 5
157 - 3
165 - 6
174 - 5
184 - 4
197 - 4
285 - 3

[Gladiator Dad]

2018 NCAA AQ Spots by Conference

8284

ACC 34 Total
125 2
133 5
141 3
149 4
157 3
165 2
174 4
184 3
197 3
285 5

Big 12 45 Total
125 - 7
133 - 5
141 - 3
149 - 5
157 - 3
165 - 6
174 - 5
184 - 4
197 - 4
285 - 3

Big 10 80 Total
125 10
133 7
141 8
149 9
157 8
165 10
174 7
184 8
197 6
285 7

EIWA 47 Total
125 1
133 3
141 4
149 4
157 6
165 6
174 5
184 7
197 6
285 5

EWL 18 Total
125 2
133 1
141 4
149 1
157 2
165 2
174 1
184 2
197 1
285 2

MAC 25 Total
125 2
133 4
141 3
149 2
157 3
165 1
174 3
184 2
197 2
285 3

PAC 12 22 Total
125 4
133 2
141 1
149 1
157 3
165 1
174 2
184 1
197 4
285 3

SOCON 12 Total
125 1
133 1
141 1
149 1
157 1
165 1
174 1
184 2
197 2
285 1

[larson311]

https://wrestlingbypirate.wordpress.com/2018/02/22/ncaa-allocations-and-who-owns-them/

125 (threshold: 30/30/.700):

ACC (2): Fausz, Hayes
Big 12 (7): Bianchi, Schwarm, Moody, Piccininni, Brown, LaMont, Moisey
Big Ten (10): Piotrowski, Oliver, Lee, Mattin, Foley, Lizak, Rivera, Tomasello, Welch, Suriano
EIWA (1): Cruz
EWL (2): Russell, Wert
MAC (2): Akins, McGee
Pac-12 (4): Millhof, Mendez, Bresser, Townsell
SoCon (1): Meink
At-Large (4):

133 (threshold: 30/30/.700):

ACC (5): Sherman, Wilson, Forys, Mueller, Gustafson
Big 12 (5): Sykora, Montoya, Brock, Gross, Bridges
Big Ten (7): Duncan, Micic, McKee, Pletcher, Keener, Thornton, Delvecchio
EIWA (3): Terao, DeSanto, Parker
EWL (1): Myers
MAC (4): Lantry, Tutolo, Erneste, Kelly
Pac-12 (2): Naser, Nickell
SoCon (1): Boston
At-Large (5):

141 (threshold: 27/27/.730):

ACC (3): Headlee, Jack, Zanetta
Big 12 (3): Alber, Heil, Meredith
Big Ten (8): Carr, Weaver, Thorn, Red, McKenna, Lee, Limmex, Stickley
EIWA (4): Smith, Diakomihalis, Karam, Gil
EWL (4): Zacherl, Shoop, Dippery, Cheek
MAC (3): Smith, Eierman, Madrigal
Pac-12 (1): Rohlfing
SoCon (1): Automatic
At-Large (6):

149 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

ACC (4): Heilmann, Donahue, Krivus, Blees
Big 12 (5): Olivas, Degen, Gliva, Thomsen, Lewallen
Big Ten (9): Sorensen, Bannister, Amine, Bleise, McCrystal, Deakin, Hayes, Retherford, DeLuca
EIWA (4): Sprague, Schuyler, Wilding, Kolodzik
EWL (1): Perry
MAC (2): Oliver, Leeth
Pac-12 (1): Tsirtsis
SoCon (1): Automatic
At-Large (6):

157 (threshold: 30/30/.700):

ACC (3): Finesilver, Hidlay, Rahmani
Big 12 (3): Ream, Zilverberg, Colgan
Big Ten (8): Kemerer, Pantaleo, Short, Berger, Jordan, Nolf, Van Brill, Crone
EIWA (6): Staudenmayer, Scheidel, Hammond, Brown, Davis, D’Angelo
EWL (2): Shomers, Klucker
MAC (3): Heffernan, Lavallee, Early
Pac-12 (3): Shields, Hammond, Fox
SoCon (1): Marinelli
At-Large (4):

165 (threshold: 27/27/.730):

ACC (2): Hamann, McFadden
Big 12 (6): Fogarty, Torres, Barnes, Rogers, Romero, Ashworth
Big Ten (10): Martinez, Marinelli, Massa, Wanzek, White, Campbell, Joseph, Morrissey, Lewis, Wick
EIWA (6): Chavez, Wolf, Daniels, Bethea, Schleifer, Deprez
EWL (2): Marsteller, Walsh
MAC (1): Flynn
Pac-12 (1): Valencia
SoCon (1): Perez
At-Large (4):

174 (threshold: 29/29/.710):

ACC (4): Finesilver, Ramos, Bullard, Bolen
Big 12 (5): Lujan, Mejias, Smith, Kocer, Bastian
Big Ten (7): Skatzka, Gunther, Amine, Sebastian, Jordan, Hall, Lydy
EIWA (5): Harvey, Womack, Johnson, Kutler, Bernstein
EWL (1): Schoffstall
MAC (3): Brucki, Lewis, Wright
Pac-12 (2): Valencia, Subjeck
SoCon (1): Przybysz
At-Large (5):

184 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

ACC (3): Ness, Renda, Zavatsky
Big 12 (4): Gabel, Foster, Moore, Mueller
Big Ten (8): Parker, Bowman, Abounader, Venz, Martin, Nickal, Gravina, Robertson
EIWA (7): Schneider, LaFragola, Dean, DeCiantis, Preisch, Coleman, Heyob
EWL (2): Corba, Hazel
MAC (2): Ellingwood, Marriott
Pac-12 (1): Automatic
SoCon (2): Clothier, Carr
At-Large (4):

197 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

ACC (3): Chaid, Macchiavello, Haught
Big 12 (4): Seely, Holschlag, Weigel, Rotert
Big Ten (6): Wilcke, Beazley, Moore, Rasheed, Brunner, Ritter
EIWA (6): Kasunic, Darmstadt, Loiseau, Weiler, Mattiace, Brucki
EWL (1): Automatic
MAC (2): Atienza, Miklus
Pac-12 (4): Lane, Williams, Griego, Traxler
SoCon (2): Boykin, Diabe
At-Large (5):

285 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

ACC (5): Kasper, Daniel, Boykin, Solomon, Dunn
Big 12 (3): Nevills, White, Dennison
Big Ten (7): Stoll, Hemida, Coon, Jennings, Snyder, Nevills, Streck
EIWA (5): Dempsey, Ryan, Sweany, Hughes, Wood
EWL (2): Miller, Haines
MAC (3): Gunning, Stencel, Hutchison
Pac-12 (3): Hall, Dhesi, Butler
SoCon (1): Heino
At-Large (4):

[Big Bird]

At first glance, this is great.

HWT is really the only weight I can quibble with at first glance.

Iowa State earned 1 AQ spot for the conference.

197 is going to be a real meat grinder. Jake Smith and Sammy Colbray didn't earn spots, but they'll definitely be in the mix for a spot.

[larson311]

Big XII Brackets http://intermatwrestle.com/Files/pdf/2018big12championships.pdf

[Gladiator Dad]

I know these are Preliminary but they usually don't change too much.

125 - Bianchi, has a very winnable first round match but has a bad match-up with one Taylor LaMont from UVU in the quarters.

133 - Sykora, again here is a very winnable first round match but then has a tough one in the quarters vs Kaid Brock from OSU. Cam was out when we had teh dual with OSU so this will be their first meeting of teh season.

141 - Midkiff, has a tough one right out of the box with Alec Opsal from AFA who handled him pretty good at the end of the season dual with AF. I have to give some serious respect to McGwire though for stepping up in a tough situation and really wrestling well. I think he has huge upside in the years to come.

149 - Gliva, has an opponent in Matthew Ontiveros of UVU who he has already beaten twice this year so I look for him to win the opener but we have a trend here in that he has a really tough second round match vs Boo Lewallen of OSU. In looking up history they have not wrestled each other yet this season.

157 - Ream, has beaten both potential opponents that he could possible see in the quarters and he will most likely see either Jonce Blaylock of OSU who he beat in a tight match earlier this season or Logan Ryan of UNI who due to transfer rules was not in the UNI lineup when had the dual with them.

165 - Fogarty, will get the winner of the Keilan Torres of UNCO vs FORFEIT (that's what the bracket says folks, LOL) who he defeated last year at the Big XII Tournament. I think Andrew will win again this year where he will the run into Branson Ashworth of WYO again. These matches have been pretty hard fought between them winAshworth winning the last meeting 2-0

174 - Urbach, will start off the tournament vs Parker VonEgidy of WVU, they did not wrestle each other when had the dual with WVU but this is matchup I think Urbach wins but then he gets Taylor Lujan of UNI and things did not end well in their last meeting.

184 - I know they have McNutt listed here and I would really like to see him back on the mat but I am not sure if that will be the case or not. Tyler has been out since teh South Beach duals so it's atoss up if we see him or not at this point.

197 - Eaton starts the dual off with Jacob Seely of UNCO. I think Cordell pulls off the win here and gets his rematch with Rotert of SDSU. I think Cordell had himself in a position to win the Rotert match at the SDSU dual so I would love to see the rematch.

285 - Stribral starts off with Brandon Ngati of WVU. Their last meeting went to SV-1 last time they met but I think Big Dan wins it again and then gets Dustin Dennison- UVU. Big Dan lost their matchup but the whole UVU dual was very strange and I think this is match that Dan can win if they should meet up.

All these are subject to change of course but I'm looking forward to a great tournament down in Tulsa.

[Big Bird]

Gladiator Dad was right, looks like Charley Popp is in at 184.

As the 10 seed, he'll have to win to get a shot at the 2 seeded Mueller, but remember that Popp was right with Mueller recently.