Bracketology 3.0

[NDSUstudent]

YSU out after falling to UNI, Panthers just on the edge....Illinois State sneaks back into the mix after upsetting the Yotes.

Duquesne at Stony Brook vs 1. JMU
Lehigh at Delaware vs 8. Samford

EWU at McNeese State vs 5. SHSU
Kennesaw State at WIU vs 4. UCA

Western Carolina at Elon vs 3. JSU
SUU at SDSU vs 6. USD

Weber State at Illinois State vs 7. Wofford
San Diego at NAU vs 2. NDSU


Autobid(10):
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Samford
SLC: UCA

At-Large(14)
Big Sky: Weber State, EWU, SUU
CAA: Elon, Delaware, Stony Brook
MVFC: WIU, USD, Illinois State, SDSU
SoCon: Western Carolina, Wofford
SLC: SHSU, McNeese State

Bubble: Montana, UNH, The Citadel, Nicholls State, Eastern Illinois, UNI, YSU, SIU, Richmond, Villanova, Furman, SLU

[BisonTru]

My take:

Villanova 1 James Madison
Lehigh


Western Carolina 8 Wofford
Elon


Nicholls St 4 Central Arkansas
Northern Iowa


Weber St 5 Western Illinois
Sam Houston St


Duquesne 3 Jacksonville St.
Samford


Eastern Washington 6 South Dakota
South Dakota St


San Diego 7 Southern Utah
Northern Arizona


Monmouth 2 North Dakota St
Delaware



First four out Montana
Youngstown St
McNeese St
Furman

Next four out Stony Brook
Illinois State
Southern Illinois
Kennesaw St

[ndsubison1]

My end of the season seeds:
1 JMU
2 NDSU
3 Jacksonville St
4 Central Arkansas
5 South Dakota
6 Sam Houston St
7 Wofford
8 Eastern Washington.

Might do a bracket later

[bisonaudit]

I think you’re short about 4 MVFC teams, but that’s just me.

[ndsubison1]

My end of the year bracket

Lehigh at Delaware vs 1. JMU
WIU at Southern Utah vs 8. EWU

Duquesne at YSU vs 4. Central Arkansas
Weber St at SDSU vs 5. South Dakota

Nicholls at Samford vs 3. Jacksonville St
San Diego at McNeese vs 6. SHSU

Elon at Western Carolina vs 7. Wofford
Monmouth at Villanova vs 2. NDSU

[td577]

The Valley could look really strange in a couple of weeks. I have to think 7 wins gets you in for sure, but you look at the games left for everyone in the conference and the only guarantees right now are NDSU has 7 and there is no way Indiana State or Missouri State is getting to 7. USD looks like the safest bet until you see their schedule. If they lose to Southern Illinois, all of a sudden they have to win 1 out of 3 against NDSU, UNI, and SDSU. SDSU is sitting at 5 wins and say USD season ends with 4 straight losses, that means SDSU has a win against them and now they have to win 1 of 3 against WIU, NDSU, and ISU red. Then if SDSU only goes 1-3 to finish the season, ISU red has beaten SDSU and has to win 1 of 3 against YSU, WIU, and NDSU. Since in this scenario UNI beats USD, they get MSU and ISUb outside of NDSU and they start looking like UNI teams of every year with a good chance at 7. I can keep going with this but in the end, it could all be flipped around with a team like YSU scrapping itself off the floor and running the tables to 7 wins while USD and the couple of 5 win teams right now might be looking a 6 wins and a prayer. Too much of a logjam at 6 wins and they all aren't going to get in. USD would probably be out with 5 straight losses for sure. Then you have MSU and ISUb who could spoil someone's season big time with just one win at the wrong time for someone.

I think in the end, there is going to be a surprise team from another conference and a Valley team staying home because the Valley beat the crap out of each other. It might be a year of only 3 Valley teams. Certainly not fair, but that is FCS life. Still better than a 4 team playoff.

[bisonaudit]

3 valley teams would be a rediculous decision. 8 would make more sense than 3.

[El_Chapo]

The Valley could look really strange in a couple of weeks. I have to think 7 wins gets you in for sure, but you look at the games left for everyone in the conference and the only guarantees right now are NDSU has 7 and there is no way Indiana State or Missouri State is getting to 7. USD looks like the safest bet until you see their schedule. If they lose to Southern Illinois, all of a sudden they have to win 1 out of 3 against NDSU, UNI, and SDSU. SDSU is sitting at 5 wins and say USD season ends with 4 straight losses, that means SDSU has a win against them and now they have to win 1 of 3 against WIU, NDSU, and ISU red. Then if SDSU only goes 1-3 to finish the season, ISU red has beaten SDSU and has to win 1 of 3 against YSU, WIU, and NDSU. Since in this scenario UNI beats USD, they get MSU and ISUb outside of NDSU and they start looking like UNI teams of every year with a good chance at 7. I can keep going with this but in the end, it could all be flipped around with a team like YSU scrapping itself off the floor and running the tables to 7 wins while USD and the couple of 5 win teams right now might be looking a 6 wins and a prayer. Too much of a logjam at 6 wins and they all aren't going to get in. USD would probably be out with 5 straight losses for sure. Then you have MSU and ISUb who could spoil someone's season big time with just one win at the wrong time for someone.

I think in the end, there is going to be a surprise team from another conference and a Valley team staying home because the Valley beat the crap out of each other. It might be a year of only 3 Valley teams. Certainly not fair, but that is FCS life. Still better than a 4 team playoff.

Yea having NDSU IN THE 4 TEAM FBS PLAYOFF Would be horrible... what the heck

[td577]

3 valley teams would be a rediculous decision. 8 would make more sense than 3.

I don't disagree. I think there is going to be a buttload of 6 win teams in the Valley. It could go the the other way with 5 teams with 7 or more wins and then it is going to be really difficult for the committee to leave any of those schools off because to get to 7 in the Valley, you have to have had some quality wins. If the right couple of teams go on a late season run here and the wrong couple of teams go into a tailspin, it is going to leave a conference with a lot of teams with mediocre records and strong computer rankings. Yes, it would be reediculous because outside the top 3 or 4 teams in the FCS outside of the Valley, there is no one else, IMHO, who can compete week in and out in the Valley. Not withstand the physical and mental grind of the valley schedule for 8 games. Most Vallley schools have their stretches during the season where they can't handle it and they are recruiting for it.

There is always injustice in the playoff selections and it is my opinion if it plays out where the MVFC beats up on each other and record-wise everyone is bunched up with 6 wins rather than 7, it will be enough of an excuse for the committee to hammer this conference. Even though, down the line, Valley schools pounded OOC playoff teams, on average.

If I were forced to lay a bet on a number and were to count mostly on favored teams winning here on out, I would put the number at 4. Just like most everyone here. So falling to 3 is much more realistic than opening up to 8. I am not sure how 8 makes more sense.

[ndsubison1]

They shouldnt be afraid to take a 6-5 MVC team

[td577]

Hell no they shouldn't, but they won't. 6-5 will end up taking them about 6 deep and they will all end up with similar resumes. So all or nine. The committee will think they are going safe and go none. Back to three teams.

The committee is easy to figure out. Take the most logical result and walk it back.

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[bisonaudit]

Hell no they shouldn't, but they won't. 6-5 will end up taking them about 6 deep and they will all end up with similar resumes. So all or nine. The committee will think they are going safe and go none. Back to three teams.

The committee is easy to figure out. Take the most logical result and walk it back.

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What is logical about not putting the best teams in the tournament?

[td577]

What is logical about not putting the best teams in the tournament?

They do it every year. You tell me.

NDSU and USD are in with at least 7 wins each.

I have ISUr winning at least 7 with a win over WIU, for sure.

SDSU plays NDSU, ISUr, and USD. They could easily be stuck at 6 wins. If they don't get to 7, they also don't have any signature wins.
UNI has to beat USD or they can't get better than 6 wins. UNI beat SDSU for their best win.
SIU doesn't look like a team that is going to win out to get to 7. They will probably get to 6. SIU beat ISUr for a good win.
WIU has ISUb. They get to 6. WIU beat a FBS program. They might have the best SRS rating.
YSU might still get to 6 if they win out over ISUb, SU, and MSU. YSU beat SDSU.

All five have some bad losses. Without going through all the suspected math, I am guessing their SRS ratings are probably pretty close. Unless one of them pulls away, there is the potential for 5 teams to still be sitting at 6 wins and you have 5 big fluffy teams looking like maybe having a better shot at 7? Then somewhere between the Southern, CAA, and the Southland, there will be an extra 8 win team than normal that will take a at-large. There is going to be some playoff worthy teams not playing a month from now, as usual, and if there is a logjam in the valley at 6 wins, how does the Valley justify getting their normal allotment of schools in? Now show me where the committee has had a history of being blatantly pro-valley in the past. They have allowed a 6 win valley team in when they have had multiple signature wins and clearly separated from everyone below them in their own conference.

What is logical is SDSU getting another win, having 4 valley schools with 7 or better in the win column, and the committee stopping with 4. Certainly not 8, even if 4 more are at 6 wins. Not even 5 because there will be really nothing differentiating the 4 six win schools from each other.

[bisonaudit]

They do it every year. You tell me.

NDSU and USD are in with at least 7 wins each.

I have ISUr winning at least 7 with a win over WIU, for sure.

SDSU plays NDSU, ISUr, and USD. They could easily be stuck at 6 wins. If they don't get to 7, they also don't have any signature wins.
UNI has to beat USD or they can't get better than 6 wins. UNI beat SDSU for their best win.
SIU doesn't look like a team that is going to win out to get to 7. They will probably get to 6. SIU beat ISUr for a good win.
WIU has ISUb. They get to 6. WIU beat a FBS program. They might have the best SRS rating.
YSU might still get to 6 if they win out over ISUb, SU, and MSU. YSU beat SDSU.

All five have some bad losses. Without going through all the suspected math, I am guessing their SRS ratings are probably pretty close. Unless one of them pulls away, there is the potential for 5 teams to still be sitting at 6 wins and you have 5 big fluffy teams looking like maybe having a better shot at 7? Then somewhere between the Southern, CAA, and the Southland, there will be an extra 8 win team than normal that will take a at-large. There is going to be some playoff worthy teams not playing a month from now, as usual, and if there is a logjam in the valley at 6 wins, how does the Valley justify getting their normal allotment of schools in? Now show me where the committee has had a history of being blatantly pro-valley in the past. They have allowed a 6 win valley team in when they have had multiple signature wins and clearly separated from everyone below them in their own conference.

What is logical is SDSU getting another win, having 4 valley schools with 7 or better in the win column, and the committee stopping with 4. Certainly not 8, even if 4 more are at 6 wins. Not even 5 because there will be really nothing differentiating the 4 six win schools from each other.

As long as anyone keeps counting wins as the first criteria they will continue to reward the wrong teams at playoff time.

[td577]

As long as anyone keeps counting wins as the first criteria they will continue to reward the wrong teams at playoff time.

Yes, I agree 150%. I think last year's in-season committee bracket showed how little those people watch football around the country. I think the committee is heavily based on the opinions of a few, skewed towards win totals, and if it wasn't for some tools like the SRS with the retooled SOS component, it would look much worse.

[Christopher Moen]

Didn’t they select a 6-5 WIU team instead of a F’Hawking 7-4 team a few years back?

Sometimes they get it right.


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[bisonaudit]

Yes, I agree 150%. I think last year's in-season committee bracket showed how little those people watch football around the country. I think the committee is heavily based on the opinions of a few, skewed towards win totals, and if it wasn't for some tools like the SRS with the retooled SOS component, it would look much worse.

When the chairman was making the radio rounds after last year’s fiasco he said they only used the SRS to evaluate the quality of a team’s wins and losses. These guys are so bad at this that they go to the trouble of developing their own tool for objectively evaluating the criteria that matter to them and then they don’t even know how to use it. They spent 2 years building it and they have no idea what they’re looking at.

[td577]

Didn’t they select a 6-5 WIU team instead of a F’Hawking 7-4 team a few years back?

Sometimes they get it right.


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Yes. That was what I was referring to when I typed this: "They have allowed a 6 win valley team in when they have had multiple signature wins and clearly separated from everyone below them in their own conference." WIU was the clear point of separation. The Big Fluffy that year had SUU at 8-4 with autobid, PSU at 9-3 and Montana 8-5 with at large. Montana was the clear cut-off with 5 teams at 7-4 or 6-5. That was a good year for the MVFC. 5 teams with 8 or better wins and then WIU with 6. After that, it was all losing records. WIU beat EIU, SIU, NIU, and SDSU (and Dayton) which were all playoff teams. Every single one of their losses were to playoff teams or FBS. UN_ beat Wyoming and PSU and 2 of their 4 losses were to playoff teams but with a combined score of 76-25. And they lost to Idaho State, whose only 2 wins on the season were over Black Hills State and UN_.

That was a year the committee got it right.

[oldmantutters]

Yes. That was what I was referring to when I typed this: "They have allowed a 6 win valley team in when they have had multiple signature wins and clearly separated from everyone below them in their own conference." WIU was the clear point of separation. The Big Fluffy that year had SUU at 8-4 with autobid, PSU at 9-3 and Montana 8-5 with at large. Montana was the clear cut-off with 5 teams at 7-4 or 6-5. That was a good year for the MVFC. 5 teams with 8 or better wins and then WIU with 6. After that, it was all losing records. WIU beat EIU, SIU, NIU, and SDSU (and Dayton) which were all playoff teams. Every single one of their losses were to playoff teams or FBS. UN_ beat Wyoming and PSU and 2 of their 4 losses were to playoff teams but with a combined score of 76-25. And they lost to Idaho State, whose only 2 wins on the season were over Black Hills State and UN_.

That was a year the committee got it right.Taking it a step further I believe the info got out that EIU was the team that got in ahead of un_. The last in, last out situation if you will, even though WIU was the team out of those three with the worst record.

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[td577]

When the chairman was making the radio rounds after last year’s fiasco he said they only used the SRS to evaluate the quality of a team’s wins and losses. These guys are so bad at this that they go to the trouble of developing their own tool for objectively evaluating the criteria that matter to them and then they don’t even know how to use it. They spent 2 years building it and they have no idea what they’re looking at.

I remember that now. I really don't think they were using the SRS when they said they were. I remember looking at a couple of years and some of it was before their SOS revamp and taking out the Ivy League schools and adjusting for the auto-bids, the playoff rankings and SRS was about 90% identical. So around 12 to 13 of the 14 at large bids were pretty close over a couple of seasons. I don't think you go from that to being so freaking illogical so quickly using the same tool. Unless those seasons where the SRS and the brackets being more similar was coincidental. Even without knowing the exact weight of the SOS or exactly how that part was calculated but knowing the rest of the Simple Rating System, I remember putting together a couple of brackets that were pretty close without using any other factor because I do think there were a couple of years they relied very heavily on SRS when they said it was only a deciding factor between two schools. Maybe at that exact moment last year, the SOS portion wasn't as well defined.

[td577]

I think Condoleezza Rice is one of the smartest people on the planet. Her accolades and accomplishments are phenomenal at just about every point in her life. That being said, one of the most impressive stories about her was as a part of the NCAA playoff committee, she would watch a minimum of 15 hours of football every week. She was still teaching, consulting about Russian politics, and doing other things a really smart person would do but still was so dedicated to her responsibility to the committee, she would put that much time into watching football. Every week of the college football season, she would spend 15 hours watching football. Now one would think this was like 5 games. No, she was watching the games without commercials, without timeouts, and without the time between plays. She was getting game tape of everything condensed down to just football. Then, 15 hours of this.

If she was able to do this with her insane schedule, you would think the FCS committee could watch a few games here and there to at least get a feel for football outside of their comfort zone.

[ndsubison1]

Elon has come out of nowhere. They are in seed conversation.

[DIBISON]

By the end of the year the Big Sky will only have three teams in the playoffs and the only reason for that many is due to the size of their conference. That conference does not play good football and their flagship team got pounded by the Bison. The MVFC will have and does deserve 5 teams in the playoffs.

[Christopher Moen]

I think Condoleezza Rice is one of the smartest people on the planet. Her accolades and accomplishments are phenomenal at just about every point in her life. That being said, one of the most impressive stories about her was as a part of the NCAA playoff committee, she would watch a minimum of 15 hours of football every week. She was still teaching, consulting about Russian politics, and doing other things a really smart person would do but still was so dedicated to her responsibility to the committee, she would put that much time into watching football. Every week of the college football season, she would spend 15 hours watching football. Now one would think this was like 5 games. No, she was watching the games without commercials, without timeouts, and without the time between plays. She was getting game tape of everything condensed down to just football. Then, 15 hours of this.

If she was able to do this with her insane schedule, you would think the FCS committee could watch a few games here and there to at least get a feel for football outside of their comfort zone.

She takes things a lot more serious than most.


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[td577]

She takes things a lot more serious than most.


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I am not saying anyone has to be that serious, but considering these decisions affect a lot of hard work, dedication, and time spent by these student/athletes, the committee should respect this to be dedicated enough to be somewhat engaged. I just so much get this feeling they will wait until they gather to hear someone else tell them how they should vote.

[Christopher Moen]

I am not saying anyone has to be that serious, but considering these decisions affect a lot of hard work, dedication, and time spent by these student/athletes, the committee should respect this to be dedicated enough to be somewhat engaged. I just so much get this feeling they will wait until they gather to hear someone else tell them how they should vote.

I believe voting members should be as serious and as dedicated to their position as she is. Last year, the first couple of polls were terrible.


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[td577]

I believe voting members should be as serious and as dedicated to their position as she is. Last year, the first couple of polls were terrible.


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Rice is the gold standard. Right now the FCS playoff committee has no standard with the exceptional of possibly breathing and that is debatable.

[DePereBisonFan]

Elon has come out of nowhere. They are in seed conversation.

Elon has been outscored on the season 187-193, yet is 7-1, all of its wins over DI competition. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like that before. All its victories are close, and it's one loss at Toledo was a blowout.