2017 Sagarin Says

[SoCalBison]

Preseason Sagarin ratings are out, and the Bison are listed at #48, the highest ranking for an FCS team.

Other FCS schools in the top 100:
76 SDSU
87 James Madison
88 Youngstown
91 UNI
93 Wofford
98 Jacksonville State

Others that may be of interest:
81 Wyoming
113 Eastern Washington
121 UND

[Bison 4 Life]

I keep wondering about JMU and SDSU. Losing Abdullah is major as he was Taiwain Jones in the 2nd half of the 2010 EWU game unstoppable for us. They have a lot of swagger coming into this year, is it legit?

I think SDSU will always be held back, either by the ghost of NDSU or by Stig. We clearly showed we could bleed last year, but are we human?

[THEsocalledfan]

Preseason Sagarin ratings are out, and the Bison are listed at #48, the highest ranking for an FCS team.

Other FCS schools in the top 100:
76 SDSU
87 James Madison
88 Youngstown
91 UNI
93 Wofford
98 Jacksonville State

Others that may be of interest:
81 Wyoming
113 Eastern Washington
121 UND

Tulane is 125.....I hope our commit who was just offered notices this.

[EndZoneQB]

I keep wondering about JMU and SDSU. Losing Abdullah is major as he was Taiwain Jones in the 2nd half of the 2010 EWU game unstoppable for us. They have a lot of swagger coming into this year, is it legit?

I think SDSU will always be held back, either by the ghost of NDSU or by Stig. We clearly showed we could bleed last year, but are we human?

You mean Taiwan Jones in the first half. Taiwan I think broke his foot in the first half or right away after half time and didn't play much.

You can tell it's still valuing our win over Iowa. It would have been interesting to see where we would have finished had we won another title. We were close to getting ranked after the Iowa win, winning out might have been our chance.

[Bison 4 Life]

You mean Taiwan Jones in the first half. Taiwan I think broke his foot in the first half or right away after half time and didn't play much.

You can tell it's still valuing our win over Iowa. It would have been interesting to see where we would have finished had we won another title. We were close to getting ranked after the Iowa win, winning out might have been our chance.

damnit. I've mostly blocked that shit out.

I was wondering why we were still so high. I'm not a math person so these statistical analyses still spellbind me.

[eman]

Anyone recall what our highest sagarin rating was?

[THEsocalledfan]

Off top of my head, it was like 18 or 19 after 2013 season which I think all would agree may be greatest Bison team of all time. (Love to joke that team was so good, that Carson Wentz was our backup QB.)

[Christopher Moen]

Anyone recall what our highest sagarin rating was?

I want to #17 after the 2013 season.

[EndZoneQB]

damnit. I've mostly blocked that shit out.

I was wondering why we were still so high. I'm not a math person so these statistical analyses still spellbind me.

That and JMU were the only times during our run that someone was "as advertised". Maybe Tre Roberson on that list too. I mean how many players have we heard hyped up "you've never seen anyone like him!" as we hold them to 1.2ypc or something. It's seriously an endless list.

I don't really understand the ins and outs of it myself, but I've heard audit and others mention it includes last years data until week ~6 I think. I believe we will fall most of the season as we don't have an FBS team on the schedule ranked in the top 15 this year. I believe the only way we can help ourselves is if we consistently beat the prediction, but I'm not entirely sure how that all interconnects.


Off top of my head, it was like 18 or 19 after 2013 season which I think all would agree may be greatest Bison team of all time. (Love to joke that team was so good, that Carson Wentz was our backup QB.)


I want to #17 after the 2013 season.

I think you guys are right.

[Christopher Moen]

That and JMU were the only times during our run that someone was "as advertised". Maybe Tre Roberson on that list too. I mean how many players have we heard hyped up "you've never seen anyone like him!" as we hold them to 1.2ypc or something. It's seriously an endless list.

I don't really understand the ins and outs of it myself, but I've heard audit and others mention it includes last years data until week ~6 I think. I believe we will fall most of the season as we don't have an FBS team on the schedule ranked in the top 15 this year. I believe the only way we can help ourselves is if we consistently beat the prediction, but I'm not entirely sure how that all interconnects.





I think you guys are right.

I would say the best bet for NDSU to move up during the season is for the Bison to beat each team decisively and for the teams they beat like EWU and UNI to beat their FBS opponents (Texas Tech and Iowa State respectively).

[BisonNation11]

I keep wondering about JMU and SDSU. Losing Abdullah is major as he was Taiwain Jones in the 2nd half of the 2010 EWU game unstoppable for us. They have a lot of swagger coming into this year, is it legit?

I think SDSU will always be held back, either by the ghost of NDSU or by Stig. We clearly showed we could bleed last year, but are we human?

That wasn't blood. It was hydraulic fluid.

[SoCalBison]

I want to #17 after the 2013 season.

Yes, finished 2013 at #17, just behind Ohio State.

[Hammerhead]

Yes, finished 2013 at #17, just behind Ohio State.

The #13 rating is higher than all but one team in each of the Big Ten divisions. :)

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/conference/

[NDSUSR]

That wasn't blood. It was hydraulic fluid.

Leaking horsepower. :)

[MNLonghorn10]

That and JMU were the only times during our run that someone was "as advertised". Maybe Tre Roberson on that list too. I mean how many players have we heard hyped up "you've never seen anyone like him!" as we hold them to 1.2ypc or something. It's seriously an endless list.

I don't really understand the ins and outs of it myself, but I've heard audit and others mention it includes last years data until week ~6 I think. I believe we will fall most of the season as we don't have an FBS team on the schedule ranked in the top 15 this year. I believe the only way we can help ourselves is if we consistently beat the prediction, but I'm not entirely sure how that all interconnects.





I think you guys are right.If you take ndsus predictor number and subtract their opponents ....and the outcome of that is higher than the subtracted #...ndsu moves up


So ndsus a 74...sdsu is a 64 or whatever. Ndsu wins 38-31...itll hurt their rating since 7 is obviously less than 10(74-64)

[thebootfitter]

If you take ndsus predictor number and subtract their opponents ....and the outcome of that is higher than the subtracted #...ndsu moves up


So ndsus a 74...sdsu is a 64 or whatever. Ndsu wins 38-31...itll hurt their rating since 7 is obviously less than 10(74-64)

That's pretty much it, though you also have to take into account Sagarin's home field advantage factor too.

[Mr Meaty]

Who really cares what Sagarin says.. We are only a couple of days away from the insightful analysis of Lee Timmerman during games.

[SoCalBison]

Who really cares what Sagarin says.. We are only a couple of days away from the insightful analysis of Lee Timmerman during games.

Go for it. Start a "2017 Timmerman Says" thread.

[oldmantutters]

Who really cares what Sagarin says.. We are only a couple of days away from the insightful analysis of Lee Timmerman during games.Way to ruin my week by reminding me of Lee Timmerman. *sigh*

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[Christopher Moen]

Just a reminder guys and gals, if you don't like VNL's coverage, you can also use NDSU's All Access (http://www.gobison.com/watch/?Live=1969&type=Live) to watch and listen. You can also watch VNL's coverage and mute the volume while listening to Bison 1660.

Absolutely no reason to have every game thread filled up with complaints about VNL. We get it, they suck. They might get it too, but probably don't care.

[oldmantutters]

Just a reminder guys and gals, if you don't like VNL's coverage, you can also use NDSU's All Access (http://www.gobison.com/watch/?Live=1969&type=Live) to watch and listen. You can also watch VNL's coverage and mute the volume while listening to Bison 1660.

Absolutely no reason to have every game thread filled up with complaints about VNL. We get it, they suck. They might get it too, but probably don't care.I'm okay overall with VNLs coverage. I just don't think he brings anything positive to the coverage, as in he doesn't add anything. I get why he is there, it's statewide NBC and he is the Western ND NBC does guy but there has to be someone better. Henry Blakes, Cliff Naylor, that Jon guy from Williston, Monica, anyone.

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[THEsocalledfan]

Time to get this baby rolling. Looks like NDSU moved up 1 to 49. The top 25 per Sagarin:

49 North Dakota State AA = 73.79 1 0 4.24( 222) 0 0 | 0 0 | 72.59 56 | 74.14 46 | 73.98 49
70 James Madison AA = 68.85 1 0 61.08( 103) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.42 74 | 67.65 77 | 69.73 68
74 South Dakota State AA = 68.41 1 0 41.45( 178) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.51 71 | 68.00 76 | 68.21 74
89 Youngstown State AA = 63.54 0 1 80.66( 31) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.83 82 | 63.29 90 | 62.79 92
90 Jacksonville State AA = 63.22 1 0 51.02( 138) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.30 92 | 62.78 91 | 63.79 86
92 Sam Houston State AA = 62.96 1 0 53.59( 128) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.78 93 | 62.43 93 | 63.70 87
96 Wofford AA = 62.02 1 0 42.12( 176) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.23 109 | 62.63 92 | 62.68 93
101 Northern Iowa AA = 60.59 0 1 72.95( 56) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.56 94 | 61.12 101 | 59.86 103
102 Illinois State AA = 60.34 1 0 16.09( 217) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.79 97 | 60.22 102 | 60.19 100
113 Western Illinois AA = 58.29 1 0 42.84( 175) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.75 114 | 57.49 119 | 58.55 108
118 Villanova AA = 57.79 1 0 49.99( 144) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.99 126 | 57.75 116 | 58.45 109
120 North Dakota AA = 57.36 0 1 83.74( 19) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.59 116 | 57.22 121 | 56.93 123
123 Samford AA = 56.54 1 0 45.39( 163) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.65 130 | 56.55 124 | 57.20 121
125 South Dakota AA = 56.04 1 0 27.39( 206) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.39 102 | 54.76 129 | 55.14 127
127 Eastern Washington AA = 55.89 0 1 76.85( 40) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.58 134 | 56.96 122 | 56.07 125
128 The Citadel AA = 55.87 1 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.99 127 | 55.83 126 | 55.79 126
129 Richmond AA = 54.79 0 1 64.17( 88) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.19 125 | 55.29 128 | 53.89 130
131 Central Arkansas AA = 53.52 0 1 86.27( 16) 0 0 | 0 1 | 53.72 133 | 53.55 131 | 53.37 132
134 New Hampshire AA = 52.92 1 0 40.33( 181) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.75 143 | 53.20 132 | 53.51 131
139 Chattanooga AA = 52.22 0 1 64.42( 87) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.33 136 | 52.62 134 | 51.49 140
140 Tennessee State AA = 51.92 1 0 50.88( 139) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.12 152 | 50.88 144 | 53.17 134
142 Northern Arizona AA = 51.46 0 1 73.82( 54) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.54 145 | 52.01 140 | 51.42 141
143 Harvard AA = 50.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.99 140 | 50.87 145 | 50.86 144
144 Charleston Southern AA = 50.90 0 1 83.12( 20) 0 0 | 0 1 | 48.70 157 | 51.53 143 | 51.29 142
149 Southern Illinois AA = 50.07 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.13 150 | 50.02 151 | 50.02 151

Curious as to why JMU is still lower ranked than NDSU? I know this is mainly historical, and the recently beat NDSU.

Also, this would have NDSU by about 15 with EWU considering home field.

[Mayville Bison]

[/B]

Curious as to why JMU is still lower ranked than NDSU? I know this is mainly historical, and the recently beat NDSU.

In the most over-simplifying reason ever, it's because the MVFC teams NDSU has faced (and beaten) has been rated much higher than the CAA teams JMU has faced (and beaten). There's more to it than that, obviously, but can't get data out without putting data in first and the data in has been good to NDSU the past 5 years.

[tjbison]

In the most over-simplifying reason ever, it's because the MVFC teams NDSU has faced (and beaten) has been rated much higher than the CAA teams JMU has faced (and beaten). There's more to it than that, obviously, but can't get data out without putting data in first and the data in has been good to NDSU the past 5 years.

those FBS wins help also

Iowa > ECU

plus NDSU played like 9 top 25 teams last year, it was really something for a schedule

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

In the most over-simplifying reason ever, it's because the MVFC teams NDSU has faced (and beaten) has been rated much higher than the CAA teams JMU has faced (and beaten). There's more to it than that, obviously, but can't get data out without putting data in first and the data in has been good to NDSU the past 5 years.

JUM also lost quite a bit compared to us and reloading with FBS transfers typically doesn’t work out well, but apparently Houston is enough of a badass to overcome the odds (at least on game day … pass the blunt fellas, way to beat the sh*t out of ECU ;).

[Bison 4 Life]

JUM also lost quite a bit compared to us and reloading with FBS transfers typically doesn’t work out well, but apparently Houston is enough of a badass to overcome the odds (at least on game day … pass the blunt fellas, way to beat the sh*t out of ECU ;).

Houston is unlikeable, period. I don't usually heap praise over opposing coaches but I didn't dislike John Grass, even Rob Ambrose was mildly humble afterwards. I don't like KC Keeler but Mike Houston tops the bunch.

[oldmantutters]

Houston is unlikeable, period. I don't usually heap praise over opposing coaches but I didn't dislike John Grass, even Rob Ambrose was mildly humble afterwards. I don't like KC Keeler but Mike Houston tops the bunch.

Yeah he isn't just a tool, he's the whole fucking shed. Rewatching the semifinal loss to them his pregame speech rubbed me the wrong way, but I will give him credit, it was effective. They came out fired up and NDSU came out flat.

[Bison 4 Life]

Yeah he isn't just a tool, he's the whole fucking shed. Rewatching the semifinal loss to them his pregame speech rubbed me the wrong way, but I will give him credit, it was effective. They came out fired up and NDSU came out flat.

They can keep him. That's not sour grapes either. I've been to more championship games than I ever thought so I don't care that he got there and we didn't but no way would I ever want that prick as a coach.

[thebootfitter]

JUM also lost quite a bit compared to us and reloading with FBS transfers typically doesn’t work out well, but apparently Houston is enough of a badass to overcome the odds (at least on game day … pass the blunt fellas, way to beat the sh*t out of ECU ;).
From a Sagarin perspective, the individual players mean zero. Only results on the field matter.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

From a Sagarin perspective, the individual players mean zero. Only results on the field matter.

Didn't know that. Thanks

[THEsocalledfan]

Didn't know that. Thanks

It is both the beauty and the curse of the Sagarin. For example, in 2013, it eliminated the anti-FCS bias making it pretty clear NDSU was a legit top 25 team. On the other hand, it undervalues teams like JMU late last year when they got rolling, and does not factor in injuries until you have games without those players starting to be factored in.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

So stupid question then. Why was the 2017 preseason ranking different from the final 2016 ranking? It was, right? JMU was ranked above us at the end of last year, as they should be. How can he make that change without factoring in (somehow) player turnover? Maybe he just does it once at the start of the year and then lets it play out? Anybody know?

[thebootfitter]

So stupid question then. Why was the 2017 preseason ranking different from the final 2016 ranking? It was, right? JMU was ranked above us at the end of last year, as they should be. How can he make that change without factoring in (somehow) player turnover? Maybe he just does it once at the start of the year and then lets it play out? Anybody know?
The champion team does not necessarily always end up at the top of the Sagarin ratings. I'm sure there is a positive correlation, but technically, they are independent of each other.

My understanding is that by the end of the season, only games within that season contribute to the equation that determines the rating. At the beginning of each season, he takes some sort of weighted values from past seasons. I don't think this information is published anywhere, but there's been speculation on the Sagarin threads before that the previous season contributes the most to the current early season rating, then the season before that contributes a smaller amount, etc. As the season progresses, the past seasons have a smaller impact until around the sixth week of the season, the teams are connected well enough to drop the weighting from past years.

[SoCalBison]

Bison move up 2 slots this week from 51 to 49. EWU collapses to 127. Bison are favored by 15.49 points at Cheney. Go Bison!

[MNLonghorn10]

plummeted in the predictor...shouldn't have let the foot off the gas and should've gone all St Johns on them.

[NDSU1980]

Ironically Massey moved us to 2 and moved JMU to 1.

[MNLonghorn10]

Ironically Massey moved us to 2 and moved JMU to 1.No shock...ndsu was honestly probably better off on idle

[SoCalBison]

Thought I understood how this works, but now I'm even more confused. Bison fall one spot this week from 49 to 50, even after beating the predictor against EWU. Predictor was 18 with home field advantage figured in; Bison winning margin was 27.

[DakotaOkie]

Thought I understood how this works, but now I'm even more confused. Bison fall one spot this week from 49 to 50, even after beating the predictor against EWU. Predictor was 18 with home field advantage figured in; Bison winning margin was 27.

Bison have no schedule strength this year. All wins need to be blowouts and zero loses to stay up in the Sagarin rankings. Assuming they are 7-0 at that point of the season, it would be reasonable to find the Bison much lower in the rankings since last season would no longer have influence.

[thebootfitter]

Thought I understood how this works, but now I'm even more confused. Bison fall one spot this week from 49 to 50, even after beating the predictor against EWU. Predictor was 18 with home field advantage figured in; Bison winning margin was 27.
It also matters what other teams do. Could be that teams behind the Bison outperformed their expectations even more than the Bison did, which means the Bison would fall.

[MNLonghorn10]

our score went up 2 pts in the predictor...unfortunately that doesnt matter much when your schedule is a nasty 237. MVSU is 3rd from last. 252 out of 254 games.

[THEsocalledfan]

FCS Top 25 per Sagarin:

50 North Dakota State AA = 74.95 2 0 31.09( 237) 0 0 | 0 0 | 74.20 51 | 74.73 49 | 75.25 50
70 James Madison AA = 68.09 2 0 46.25( 195) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.68 70 | 66.33 79 | 68.87 70
77 South Dakota State AA = 67.17 2 0 45.27( 202) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.21 78 | 67.02 75 | 67.50 74
88 Youngstown State AA = 64.25 1 1 52.96( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.00 84 | 64.35 89 | 63.77 90
96 Jacksonville State AA = 61.63 1 1 67.27( 62) 0 0 | 0 1 | 61.21 100 | 61.22 98 | 61.91 97
98 Northern Iowa AA = 61.14 1 1 58.26( 111) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.89 106 | 62.07 95 | 60.91 102
100 Wofford AA = 61.04 2 0 45.74( 198) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.84 115 | 61.45 96 | 61.92 96
101 Sam Houston State AA = 60.87 2 0 43.77( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.86 112 | 60.11 104 | 62.00 95
103 Illinois State AA = 60.61 1 0 16.55( 244) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.87 101 | 60.49 102 | 60.45 105
104 The Citadel AA = 60.58 2 0 35.66( 228) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.15 95 | 59.91 106 | 60.28 106
105 North Dakota AA = 60.30 1 1 62.37( 84) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.27 94 | 59.48 109 | 59.93 108
108 Western Illinois AA = 60.10 2 0 47.61( 184) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.71 102 | 58.04 117 | 61.04 101
110 South Dakota AA = 59.24 2 0 43.58( 211) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.87 97 | 56.81 124 | 59.64 110
119 Samford AA = 57.48 2 0 47.73( 182) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.89 135 | 57.59 121 | 58.29 115
121 Villanova AA = 57.00 1 1 59.09( 103) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.06 124 | 56.74 126 | 57.01 120
124 New Hampshire AA = 56.71 2 0 51.37( 155) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.40 130 | 54.73 132 | 58.32 114
126 Richmond AA = 56.13 1 1 55.51( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.10 132 | 56.81 125 | 55.97 127
127 Central Arkansas AA = 55.97 1 1 63.31( 77) 0 0 | 0 1 | 56.66 125 | 55.20 129 | 56.06 126
133 Eastern Washington AA = 54.69 0 2 74.75( 23) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.99 143 | 56.23 127 | 54.64 130
139 Chattanooga AA = 53.71 0 2 78.21( 13) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.41 136 | 54.43 135 | 52.87 140
142 Southern Illinois AA = 53.01 1 0 5.07( 245) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.39 138 | 52.81 140 | 52.86 141
144 Tennessee-Martin AA = 52.26 1 1 78.74( 12) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.53 137 | 51.99 144 | 51.80 144
145 Southern Utah AA = 51.52 1 1 60.89( 96) 0 0 | 0 1 | 51.20 146 | 50.57 148 | 52.10 143
146 Charleston Southern AA = 51.47 0 1 85.49( 4) 0 0 | 0 1 | 49.57 155 | 51.93 145 | 51.77 145
147 Harvard AA = 51.22 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.13 147 | 51.13 147 | 51.18 147


Thoughts:
1. Historical nature of poll appears to be over-valuing UNI still.
2. My gut tells me NDSU and JMU are on a collision course, likely in Frisco.
3. Crazy to see all 4 dakota schools legitimately in the top 25. The UXDs may both be top 10 teams, too.
4. Not sure what to make of WIU. They are either really good, or the Big Fluffy is just that bad.
5. 8, count them, 8 Valley teams in top 25.

[Professor Chaos]

It's truly the twilight zone when NDSU has a lower SOS than SHSU:

North Dakota State 31.09 (237)
Sam Houston State 43.77 (208)

Luckily that won't last for long.


My gut tells me NDSU and JMU are on a collision course, likely in Frisco.

This was the overwhelming thought in 2013 also between NDSU and the Jimmy Garappolo led Eastern Illinois Panthers. There's a lot of season (and postseason) left.

[Bison 4 Life]

It's truly the twilight zone when NDSU has a lower SOS than SHSU:

North Dakota State 31.09 (237)
Sam Houston State 43.77 (208)

Luckily that won't last for long.


This was the overwhelming thought in 2013 also between NDSU and the Jimmy Garappolo led Eastern Illinois Panthers. There's a lot of season (and postseason) left.

It will be iffy until Late October. I'm cool with that though.

[SoCalBison]

The bye week is good to the Bison (EWU's win at Fordham may have helped). NDSU up 2 spots to #48. Bison are favored by 44.91 over Robert Morris (#222). Go Bison!

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

The bye week is good to the Bison (EWU's win at Fordham may have helped). NDSU up 2 spots to #48. Bison are favored by 44.91 over Robert Morris (#222). Go Bison!

Yeah, another yawner. Probably be interesting for about a 2 minutes.

My son is a diehard Bison fan and a student at NDSU and he is coming home this weekend to hunt. Tells you how much excitement there is for this game. Against MVSU, he said student tickets were easy to get, even late into the week. We need to do something about the crap non-conference games.

[PattyBison]

Yeah, another yawner. Probably be interesting for about a 2 minutes.

My son is a diehard Bison fan and a student at NDSU and he is coming home this weekend to hunt. Tells you how much excitement there is for this game. Against MVSU, he said student tickets were easy to get, even late into the week. We need to do something about the crap non-conference games.

Tickets were easy to get because it was Labor Day weekend. I don't think any opponent would have changed that.

[Bison 4 Life]

Yeah, another yawner. Probably be interesting for about a 2 minutes.

My son is a diehard Bison fan and a student at NDSU and he is coming home this weekend to hunt. Tells you how much excitement there is for this game. Against MVSU, he said student tickets were easy to get, even late into the week. We need to do something about the crap non-conference games.

Yeah, we should totally have 2 top 10 and a FBS team on the schedule so we're so beat up we can't get through the playoffs.

Fuckin genius.

[unbison]

Yeah, we should totally have 2 top 10 and a FBS team on the schedule so we're so beat up we can't get through the playoffs.

Fuckin genius.
I believe your example is a bit extreme .... so before calling names you probably shouldn't spit equally idiotic garbage out of your mouth
You are wrecking what used to be a enjoyable bison message board

[Bison 4 Life]

I believe your example is a bit extreme .... so before calling names you probably shouldn't spit equally idiotic garbage out of your mouth
You are wrecking what used to be a enjoyable bison message board

You forget what happened last year, dummy?

[unbison]

You forget what happened last year, dummy?

Are you not smart enough to get out of your own way..... how many starters have we lost this year

[Christopher Moen]

If you are an AD at any school in the country with a football team, why would you schedule the Bison?

That's the issue why NDSU is having a tough time filling out the schedule. FCS teams don't want the physical beat-down unless money is involved and FBS teams don't want to pay a FCS team they have a good chance losing to at home.


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[THEsocalledfan]

Back on topic; Top 25 per Sagarin:

48 North Dakota State AA = 75.27 2 0 32.02( 242) 0 0 | 0 0 | 74.74 49 | 75.09 50 | 75.44 49
68 James Madison AA = 68.69 3 0 36.40( 233) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.90 68 | 67.17 78 | 69.06 66
77 South Dakota State AA = 66.50 3 0 38.55( 226) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.25 81 | 66.46 79 | 66.87 75
82 Youngstown State AA = 65.18 2 1 40.27( 221) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.66 73 | 65.21 81 | 64.47 86
90 South Dakota AA = 63.49 3 0 48.35( 187) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.57 74 | 59.89 107 | 64.52 85
93 Illinois State AA = 62.93 2 0 32.32( 241) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.00 89 | 61.86 96 | 63.03 91
97 Wofford AA = 61.47 2 0 47.07( 195) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.61 116 | 61.81 97 | 62.24 95
101 Jacksonville State AA = 61.02 1 1 65.26( 66) 0 0 | 0 1 | 60.39 102 | 60.83 100 | 61.23 101
103 Sam Houston State AA = 60.87 2 0 43.70( 207) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.72 114 | 60.16 103 | 62.02 96
104 Western Illinois AA = 60.15 2 0 47.46( 192) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.82 98 | 58.12 114 | 61.02 102
109 Northern Iowa AA = 59.07 1 2 57.12( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.68 115 | 60.88 99 | 57.97 114
110 The Citadel AA = 59.06 3 0 36.62( 232) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.84 112 | 58.67 111 | 59.25 106
114 Villanova AA = 58.33 2 1 44.86( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.70 106 | 57.92 115 | 57.91 115
116 Central Arkansas AA = 57.63 2 1 47.39( 193) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.79 113 | 56.45 128 | 57.78 116
118 Richmond AA = 56.83 2 1 45.81( 200) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.81 122 | 57.28 118 | 56.41 120
121 Eastern Washington AA = 56.66 1 2 67.13( 53) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.92 133 | 57.03 122 | 56.94 117
126 North Dakota AA = 56.12 1 2 64.45( 71) 0 0 | 0 1 | 56.86 121 | 57.13 120 | 55.06 128
130 Samford AA = 55.92 2 1 67.36( 51) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.38 130 | 55.56 131 | 56.20 122
136 Southern Illinois AA = 53.74 2 0 21.15( 251) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.90 139 | 53.18 138 | 53.87 136
139 Southern Utah AA = 53.29 2 1 58.04( 120) 0 0 | 0 1 | 52.53 141 | 51.47 144 | 54.56 132
143 New Hampshire AA = 51.55 2 1 51.20( 171) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.96 147 | 52.19 143 | 51.23 145
144 Princeton AA = 51.09 1 0 36.73( 231) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.43 166 | 51.21 146 | 51.86 143
145 Stony Brook AA = 51.00 2 1 43.98( 205) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.56 140 | 49.02 157 | 51.09 146
146 Mercer AA = 50.96 1 2 58.55( 115) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.43 135 | 50.19 151 | 49.94 154
147 Weber State AA = 50.88 2 1 58.71( 114) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.47 144 | 50.19 152 | 50.93 147


South Dakota with a very deserved huge jump. Curious to folks who follow this closer, how many more weeks until the data is typically well connected? Still 8 MVFC teams!

And can we say the national landscape is currently tipped toward the Valley? I got a kick out of Dom's report of catching the MAC; was surprised it took him this long to realize it. (I do realize MAC has very good top level teams.) I think we are starting to fully see what adding the Dakota schools to FCS has done; you have tipped the scales a bit away from G5 toward top level FCS football as these teams are getting athletes that would typically play G5 in other parts of the country. Just my two cents.

[bisonaudit]

He used to say back in the day when the data was well connected but that stopped a few years back. I think it was typically 5 or 6 weeks.

[tony]

And can we say the national landscape is currently tipped toward the Valley? I got a kick out of Dom's report of catching the MAC; was surprised it took him this long to realize it. (I do realize MAC has very good top level teams.) I think we are starting to fully see what adding the Dakota schools to FCS has done; you have tipped the scales a bit away from G5 toward top level FCS football as these teams are getting athletes that would typically play G5 in other parts of the country. Just my two cents.

More like expanding the gap rather than closing it :)

Rhode Island beat one of their teams... Rhode Island.

[Gully]

More like expanding the gap rather than closing it :)

.

Why do you bring Joel H. Into this conversation?

[SoCalBison]

Sunday game caused Sagarin to be late today...but Bison ride the Robert Morris win to go up 3 places in Sagarin to #45. Missouri State is at #202, and Bison are 40-point favorites for next week. Go Bison!

[THEsocalledfan]

45 North Dakota State AA = 76.11 3 0 29.18( 247) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.14 43 | 75.79 46 | 76.00 45
67 James Madison AA = 69.98 4 0 41.80( 214) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.28 66 | 68.13 73 | 70.03 64
76 South Dakota State AA = 66.66 3 0 38.59( 229) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.33 77 | 67.29 75 | 67.70 73
80 Youngstown State AA = 65.52 2 1 38.67( 227) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.94 80 | 64.54 86 | 63.68 91
84 Western Illinois AA = 65.15 3 0 49.00( 177) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.83 83 | 61.54 101 | 65.05 82
85 South Dakota AA = 64.92 3 0 45.99( 197) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.06 78 | 60.01 106 | 63.72 90
90 Illinois State AA = 64.00 3 0 36.28( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.22 90 | 62.58 95 | 64.03 87
91 Sam Houston State AA = 63.75 3 0 44.63( 205) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.79 91 | 62.67 94 | 64.54 85
99 Jacksonville State AA = 61.90 2 1 56.25( 133) 0 0 | 0 1 | 61.72 98 | 61.82 98 | 62.76 97
108 The Citadel AA = 59.47 3 0 38.17( 232) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.40 108 | 59.24 113 | 59.82 107
115 Central Arkansas AA = 57.85 2 1 46.41( 195) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.17 113 | 56.31 120 | 57.35 117
116 Northern Iowa AA = 57.65 1 2 53.69( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.39 118 | 59.56 109 | 56.68 120
117 Weber State AA = 57.30 3 1 54.51( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.83 114 | 54.16 137 | 57.41 116
118 Tennessee-Martin AA = 57.15 3 1 57.63( 122) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.03 120 | 55.77 125 | 59.23 110
122 Wofford AA = 56.73 3 0 44.92( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.40 128 | 60.20 105 | 60.80 104
126 Eastern Washington AA = 56.07 2 2 61.43( 85) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.41 127 | 57.39 117 | 58.39 113
127 Villanova AA = 56.05 2 2 46.83( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.60 124 | 55.48 129 | 52.86 136
129 Southern Illinois AA = 55.35 2 1 38.72( 226) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.67 126 | 54.09 138 | 54.47 129
131 Montana State AA = 54.55 1 2 66.69( 57) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.83 131 | 51.84 146 | 55.74 124
135 Richmond AA = 54.32 2 2 43.14( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.39 134 | 55.20 133 | 52.50 139
136 Samford AA = 54.14 2 2 55.55( 140) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.23 135 | 54.29 136 | 53.00 135
139 Chattanooga AA = 53.27 1 3 58.52( 115) 0 0 | 0 1 | 53.81 139 | 53.07 142 | 49.64 153
142 Northern Arizona AA = 52.62 1 2 61.82( 83) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.50 143 | 53.04 143 | 52.51 138
143 Stony Brook AA = 52.32 3 1 41.30( 216) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.72 141 | 49.71 155 | 52.52 137
144 North Dakota AA = 51.92 1 3 59.58( 107) 0 0 | 0 1 | 52.14 145 | 53.57 140 | 48.01 164

Still 8 MVFC teams in top 25. Surprised UNI is still that high; are they overvalued? Not to mention with how tough SIU played Memphis, makes me think that are ranked too low. You know your conference is good when you have 6 of the top 10 teams, and 4 of the top 5. How the garbage team to the north is in the top 25 is a mystery to me. Clearly overvalued.

[thebootfitter]

I've noticed that Hammersmith and Bisonaudit haven't been posting their usual analyses in this thread as in past years. Will you guys start once the schedule gets a little more exciting?

I don't think I'll have the consistent time to commit to pulling Sagarin figures and analyzing each week, but if anyone else is interested in taking this on, I do have a couple spreadsheets that make Hammersmith's usual analysis fairly easy to do. Feel free to PM me, and I can dust off the spreadsheet and send to you.

Go Bison!

[bisonaudit]

Sorry guys. I’ve been in the middle of moving so life is a bit upside down at the moment. Hopefully, I’ll be able to get back to being a regular contributor to this thread soon.

[El_Chapo]

man I'm sick of eating cupcakes 5 straight ick

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0 25.7%
10-1 40.0%
9-2.. 24.9%
8-3.... 7.9%
7-4.... 1.3%
6-5.... 0.1%
5-6.... 0.004%
4-7.... 0.00004%
3-8.... 0.00000003%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v. Mo.St.. 99.8% -40.0
@ Ind.St. 98.8% -30.5
@ YSU.... 72.8%.. -8.0
v. W. Ill... 83.9% -13.5
v. UNI..... 93.8% -21.0
@ SDSU.. 69.9%.. -7.0
v. USD.... 84.3% -13.5
@ Ill. St.. 76.4%.. -9.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
@ SDSU.. 69.9%.. -7.0
@ YSU.... 72.8%.. -8.0
@ Ill. St.. 76.4%.. -9.5
v. W. Ill... 83.9% -13.5
v. USD.... 84.3% -13.5
v. UNI..... 93.8% -21.0
@ Ind.St. 98.8% -30.5
v. Mo.St.. 99.8% -40.0

[Hammersmith]

Sorry guys. I’ve been in the middle of moving so life is a bit upside down at the moment. Hopefully, I’ll be able to get back to being a regular contributor to this thread soon.

Ditto. Not moving, but busy as hell. Just don't have the energy to spare this year.

[thebootfitter]

Ditto. Not moving, but busy as hell. Just don't have the energy to spare this year.
And no one is taking me up on the spreadsheet offer. I may be able to get to it now and then, but definitely don't have the capacity this year to commit every week.

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin's Week 12 Predictions



Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
45 North Dakota State 76.11
63 Iowa State 71.30 +2.40 +20.00 +17.60
117 Weber State 57.30 +16.40 +17.00 +0.60
244 Incarnate Word 19.26 +59.26 +58.00 -1.26
159 Montana 48.89 +29.63 +12.00 -17.63
84 Western Illinois 65.15 +8.55 +7.00 -1.55
129 Southern Illinois 55.35 +23.17 +28.00 +4.83
187 Indiana State 42.99 +35.53 +17.00 -18.53
85 South Dakota 64.92 +8.78 +40.00 +31.22
76 South Dakota State 66.66 +11.86 +20.00 +8.14
116 Northern Iowa 57.65 +16.05 -20.00 -36.05
202 Missouri State 38.50 +35.20 +35.00 -0.20
80 Youngstown State 65.52 +13.00 +24.00 +11.00

90 Illinois State 64.00
Total Diff: -1.83
Home Field 2.41



Sagarin FCS Top-25



Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 45 76.11 North Dakota State 29.18 247 Missouri Valley
2 67 69.98 James Madison 41.80 214 Colonial
3 76 66.66 South Dakota State 38.59 229 Missouri Valley
4 80 65.52 Youngstown State 38.67 227 Missouri Valley
5 84 65.15 Western Illinois 49.00 177 Missouri Valley
6 85 64.92 South Dakota 45.99 197 Missouri Valley
7 90 64.00 Illinois State 36.28 235 Missouri Valley
8 91 63.75 Sam Houston State 44.63 205 Southland
9 99 61.90 Jacksonville State 56.25 133 Ohio Valley
10 108 59.47 The Citadel 38.17 232 Southern
11 115 57.85 Central Arkansas 46.41 195 Southland
12 116 57.65 Northern Iowa 53.69 156 Missouri Valley
13 117 57.30 Weber State 54.51 147 Big Sky
14 118 57.15 Tennessee-Martin 57.63 122 Ohio Valley
15 122 56.73 Wofford 44.92 203 Southern
16 126 56.07 Eastern Washington 61.43 85 Big Sky
17 127 56.05 Villanova 46.83 193 Colonial
18 129 55.35 Southern Illinois 38.72 226 Missouri Valley
19 131 54.55 Montana State 66.69 57 Big Sky
20 135 54.32 Richmond 43.14 208 Colonial
21 136 54.14 Samford 55.55 140 Southern
22 139 53.27 Chattanooga 58.52 115 Southern
23 142 52.62 Northern Arizona 61.82 83 Big Sky
24 143 52.32 Stony Brook 41.30 216 Colonial
25 144 51.92 North Dakota 59.58 107 Big Sky



Sagarin Conference Ranking



ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank
P5 ACC 78.60 93.74 10
G5 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.23 78.10 4
P5 BIG 12 78.39 93.75 8
FCS BIG SKY 48.52 57.30 1
FCS BIG SOUTH 42.10 48.74 1
P5 BIG TEN 77.51 93.56 9
FCS COLONIAL 50.12 69.98 1
G5 CONFERENCE USA 57.29 72.85 #REF!
NA I-A INDEPENDENTS 62.19 72.48 #REF!
FCS I-AA INDEPENDENTS 42.04 42.04 1
FCS IVY LEAGUE 40.93 59.00 1
G5 MAC 56.48 68.81 1
FCS MID-EASTERN 27.87 59.69 1
FCS MISSOURI VALLEY 58.38 66.66 1
G5 MWC 60.42 72.66 1
FCS NORTHEAST 33.18 45.06 1
FCS OHIO VALLEY 43.30 78.20 1
P5 PAC-12 75.58 87.46 8
FCS PATRIOT 33.03 40.69 1
FCS PIONEER 31.81 101.97 #REF!
P5 SEC 71.86 85.50 10
FCS SOUTHERN 43.98 63.75 1
FCS SOUTHLAND 35.84 67.22 1
G5 SUN BELT 49.67 57.08 1
FCS SWAC 24.59 66.48 1

[thebootfitter]

A couple folks have requested the spreadsheet. I just dusted it off and posted stats from the current Sagarin ratings. It appears that a couple items need to be updated. (See the #REF! errors above.) Usually this happens because he alters the official team names in his list. For example, I noticed what used to be "Army" is now referred to as "Army West Point."

Bisonboone11 and X-factor -- if either one of you are handy with Excel formulas and troubleshooting references, etc., I can hand it over as-is. If you'd prefer me to fix the spreadsheet to be current before I send it along, I can find time to do that this weekend.

Oops... I just noticed that I didn't update it for current season opponents either. He he he... Easy fix, though.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 22.0%. -3.7%
10-1 38.8%. -1.2%
9-2.. 27.3% +2.4%
8-3.... 9.8% +1.9%
7-4.... 1.9% +0.6%
6-5.... 0.2% +0.1%
5-6.... 0.008%
4-7.... 0.00008%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
@ Ind.St. 98.6% -30.0. -0.2% +0.5
@ YSU.... 64.4%.. -5.0. -8.4% +3.0
v. W. Ill... 83.4% -13.0. -0.5% +0.5
v. UNI..... 92.0% -19.0. -1.8% +2.0
@ SDSU.. 73.6%. -8.5. +3.7% -1.5
v. USD.... 79.9% -11.5. -4.4% +2.0
@ Ill. St.. 76.7% -10.0 +0.3%. -0.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change. Opp.. Win%.. Line
+1 @ YSU.... 64.4%.. -5.0
-1. @ SDSU.. 73.6%.. -8.5
.... @ Ill. St.. 76.7% -10.0
+1 v. USD.... 79.9% -11.5
-1. v. W. Ill... 83.4% -13.0
.... v. UNI..... 92.0% -19.0
.... @ Ind.St. 98.6% -30.0

[MNLonghorn10]

yeesh.. 28 pt wins sure look good for anybody else, but NDSU can't afford them, need to win by more.

[X-Factor]

A couple folks have requested the spreadsheet. I just dusted it off and posted stats from the current Sagarin ratings. It appears that a couple items need to be updated. (See the #REF! errors above.) Usually this happens because he alters the official team names in his list. For example, I noticed what used to be "Army" is now referred to as "Army West Point."

Bisonboone11 and X-factor -- if either one of you are handy with Excel formulas and troubleshooting references, etc., I can hand it over as-is. If you'd prefer me to fix the spreadsheet to be current before I send it along, I can find time to do that this weekend.

Oops... I just noticed that I didn't update it for current season opponents either. He he he... Easy fix, though.
Sure, send it over

[SoCalBison]

Despite failing to cover the predictor, Bison move up 2 more spots this week to #46.

[Hammersmith]

Okay, had a few hours this morning to update the spreadsheet. Glad I only have to do that once a year. Here's the stuff I've been posting the last few years. I'll probably keep it up now that HS football season is closer to the end. (Wahp had a 6OT game on Fri)

X-Factor: If you want the updated version of bootfitter's spreadsheet(it's the one he made for me a few years back), I'd be happy to send it.

Sagarin's 2017 Week 6 Prediction



Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
46 North Dakota State 74.69
252 Miss. Valley State 7.20 +69.43 +65.00 -4.43
122 Eastern Washington 56.32 +18.37 +27.00 +8.63
Bye
222 Robert Morris 30.37 +46.26 +56.00 +9.74
198 Missouri State 38.68 +37.95 +27.00 -10.95
186 Indiana State 42.71 +30.04
72 Youngstown State 67.77 +4.98
90 Western Illinois 63.50 +13.13
118 Northern Iowa 57.61 +19.02
87 South Dakota State 64.22 +8.53
78 South Dakota 65.31 +11.32
94 Illinois State 62.90 +9.85

133 Southern Illinois 53.33

Total Diff: +2.99
Home Field 1.94


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 46 74.69 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 69 69.22 James Madison Colonial
3 72 67.77 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
4 78 65.31 South Dakota Missouri Valley
5 87 64.22 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
6 90 63.50 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
7 94 62.90 Illinois State Missouri Valley
8 95 62.22 Sam Houston State Southland
9 97 62.08 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
10 105 60.47 Central Arkansas Southland
11 113 58.50 Weber State Big Sky
12 117 58.08 Samford Southern
13 118 57.61 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
14 119 57.56 Wofford Southern
15 122 56.32 Eastern Washington Big Sky
16 123 55.48 Villanova Colonial
17 126 54.81 The Citadel Southern
18 129 54.14 Richmond Colonial
19 131 53.82 Northern Arizona Big Sky
20 133 53.33 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
21 135 52.74 Montana State Big Sky
22 137 52.67 Stony Brook Colonial
23 141 51.69 Western Carolina Southern
24 143 51.30 Tennessee-Martin Ohio Valley
25 145 50.76 NC A&T Mid-Eastern


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 ACC 78.63 10
2 BIG 12 78.37 8
3 PAC-12 78.32 8
4 SEC 77.62 9
5 BIG TEN 77.58 10
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.48 4
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 65.55 2
8 MWC 63.55 2
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 60.32 1
10 MAC 59.08 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.16 1
12 SUN BELT 55.09 1
13 COLONIAL 49.83 1
14 SOUTHERN 49.25 1
15 BIG SKY 48.04 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.88 1
17 BIG SOUTH 42.64 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 41.71 1
19 SOUTHLAND 38.63 1
20 PATRIOT 34.66 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.37 1
22 MID-EASTERN 29.11 1
23 SWAC 25.05 1
24 PIONEER 20.43 1

[Christopher Moen]

Okay, had a few hours this morning to update the spreadsheet. Glad I only have to do that once a year. Here's the stuff I've been posting the last few years. I'll probably keep it up now that HS football season is closer to the end. (Wahp had a 6OT game on Fri)

X-Factor: If you want the updated version of bootfitter's spreadsheet(it's the one he made for me a few years back), I'd be happy to send it.

Sagarin's 2017 Week 6 Prediction



Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
46North Dakota State 74.69
252Miss. Valley State 7.20+69.43+65.00 -4.43
122Eastern Washington 56.32+18.37+27.00 +8.63
Bye
222Robert Morris 30.37+46.26+56.00 +9.74
198Missouri State 38.68+37.95+27.00-10.95
186Indiana State 42.71+30.04
72Youngstown State 67.77 +4.98
90Western Illinois 63.50+13.13
118Northern Iowa 57.61+19.02
87South Dakota State 64.22 +8.53
78South Dakota 65.31+11.32
94Illinois State 62.90 +9.85

133Southern Illinois 53.33

Total Diff: +2.99
Home Field 1.94


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 4674.69North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 6969.22James Madison Colonial
3 7267.77Youngstown State Missouri Valley
4 7865.31South Dakota Missouri Valley
5 8764.22South Dakota State Missouri Valley
6 9063.50Western Illinois Missouri Valley
7 9462.90Illinois State Missouri Valley
8 9562.22Sam Houston State Southland
9 9762.08Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
1010560.47Central Arkansas Southland
1111358.50Weber State Big Sky
1211758.08Samford Southern
1311857.61Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
1411957.56Wofford Southern
1512256.32Eastern Washington Big Sky
1612355.48Villanova Colonial
1712654.81The Citadel Southern
1812954.14Richmond Colonial
1913153.82Northern Arizona Big Sky
2013353.33Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
2113552.74Montana State Big Sky
2213752.67Stony Brook Colonial
2314151.69Western Carolina Southern
2414351.30Tennessee-Martin Ohio Valley
2514550.76NC A&T Mid-Eastern


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1ACC 78.6310
2BIG 12 78.37 8
3PAC-12 78.32 8
4SEC 77.62 9
5BIG TEN 77.5810
6AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.48 4
7I-A INDEPENDENTS 65.55 2
8MWC 63.55 2
9MISSOURI VALLEY 60.32 1
10MAC 59.08 1
11CONFERENCE USA 57.16 1
12SUN BELT 55.09 1
13COLONIAL 49.83 1
14SOUTHERN 49.25 1
15BIG SKY 48.04 1
16OHIO VALLEY 42.88 1
17BIG SOUTH 42.64 1
18IVY LEAGUE 41.71 1
19SOUTHLAND 38.63 1
20PATRIOT 34.66 1
21NORTHEAST 34.37 1
22MID-EASTERN 29.11 1
23SWAC 25.05 1
24PIONEER 20.43 1



Wahpeton? Does Scott Tischer still work with you guys?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hammersmith]

Wahpeton? Does Scott Tischer still work with you guys?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah. PhyEd & wrestling.

[stevdock]

I don't remember where the Gophers were after our Robert Morris win, but after we defeated the Almighty Bye we were two spots behind them. And looking at today's we are still two spots behind them even after they lost to Maryland yesterday. I find that interesting.

[Hammerhead]

I don't remember where the Gophers were after our Robert Morris win, but after we defeated the Almighty Bye we were two spots behind them. And looking at today's we are still two spots behind them even after they lost to Maryland yesterday. I find that interesting.

From what I understand, losses against a team with a higher rating don't lower your rating. It's probably worse to beat at team by "only" 27 when you are favored by 35 points. :)

[MNLonghorn10]

I don't remember where the Gophers were after our Robert Morris win, but after we defeated the Almighty Bye we were two spots behind them. And looking at today's we are still two spots behind them even after they lost to Maryland yesterday. I find that interesting.Well that ugly 236 ranked strength of schedule isn't helping anything.

[thebootfitter]

Well that ugly 236 ranked strength of schedule isn't helping anything.
That actually doesn't have anything to do with our Sagarin rating.

[MNLonghorn10]

That actually doesn't have anything to do with our Sagarin rating.Oh.

I figured the only thing that matters is the predictor so when ndsu isn't beating teams by 49 points, it hurts more than it helps.. They dropped 2 points in the predictor because they only won by 28,not 44.

[Christopher Moen]

Yeah. PhyEd & wrestling.

Next time you see that goof, tell him I said "hi."


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bisonaudit]

Oh.

I figured the only thing that matters is the predictor so when ndsu isn't beating teams by 49 points, it hurts more than it helps.. They dropped 2 points in the predictor because they only won by 28,not 44.

It depends on how you look at it. It’s a little bit circular. The quality of your opponents matter to your rating but the strength of schedule metric itself is more of an output than an input.

[SoCalBison]

Despite failing to cover the predictor, Bison move up 2 more spots this week to #46.

Uh, my bad. I was traveling last week and somehow lost track of the ranking. Bison moved up 3 spots the previous week to 45, then fell one spot to #46 after the Missouri State win.

[NovaBison]

Back into the Top 40... #39 now -- feels good to be back! :)

[DakotaOkie]

Thumping ISU-b 52-0 moves the Bison up to #39 this week.
Equally interesting are the ratings for Youngstown, USD, and SDSU. They couldn't be any closer.

74 Youngstown State AA = 67.77 3 2 56.92( 121) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.20 73 | 66.17 77 | 66.44 76
75 South Dakota State AA = 67.07 4 1 48.47( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.42 76 | 66.47 76 | 65.08 81
76 South Dakota AA = 66.73 5 0 54.42( 136) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.46 79 | 65.40 79 | 69.68 67

[DakotaOkie]

Looking closer at Sagarin, there is a separate set of ratings this week that is unbiased by last year. This has the Bison at #28!
Before anyone gets too excited, South Dakota is #24.
Two top 30 teams at this juncture in the MVFC.

[MNLonghorn10]

wow..thats quite the jump.

[NDSU1980]

Thumping ISU-b 52-0 moves the Bison up to #39 this week.
Equally interesting are the ratings for Youngstown, USD, and SDSU. They couldn't be any closer.

74 Youngstown State AA = 67.77 3 2 56.92( 121) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.20 73 | 66.17 77 | 66.44 76
75 South Dakota State AA = 67.07 4 1 48.47( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.42 76 | 66.47 76 | 65.08 81
76 South Dakota AA = 66.73 5 0 54.42( 136) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.46 79 | 65.40 79 | 69.68 67

I'm not so sure the Coyotes should be rated lower than the JerkRabbits, or Youngstown.

[SoCalBison]

Back into the Top 40... #39 now -- feels good to be back! :)

I like it, a good week for the Bison!

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2017 Week 7 Prediction

Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
39 North Dakota State 76.77
253 Miss. Valley State 9.75 +68.99 +65.00 -3.99
121 Eastern Washington 56.82 +19.95 +27.00 +7.05
Bye
224 Robert Morris 29.95 +48.79 +56.00 +7.21
199 Missouri State 39.14 +39.60 +27.00 -12.60
192 Indiana State 40.07 +34.73 +52.00 +17.27
74 Youngstown State 67.77 +7.03
84 Western Illinois 64.90 +13.84
120 Northern Iowa 57.40 +21.34
75 South Dakota State 67.07 +7.73
76 South Dakota 66.73 +12.01
110 Illinois State 59.12 +15.68

142 Southern Illinois 51.44

Total Diff: +14.94
Home Field 1.97

Sagarin FCS Top-25

Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 39 76.77 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 70 68.80 James Madison Colonial
3 74 67.77 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
4 75 67.07 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
5 76 66.73 South Dakota Missouri Valley
6 84 64.90 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
7 96 61.93 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
8 106 59.90 Sam Houston State Southland
9 110 59.12 Illinois State Missouri Valley
10 111 59.10 Central Arkansas Southland
11 113 58.65 Wofford Southern
12 114 58.45 Weber State Big Sky
13 115 58.38 Villanova Colonial
14 118 57.65 Northern Arizona Big Sky
15 120 57.40 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
16 121 56.82 Eastern Washington Big Sky
17 122 56.37 Samford Southern
18 132 53.87 Richmond Colonial
19 133 53.47 Montana State Big Sky
20 134 53.10 Mercer Southern
21 135 53.00 The Citadel Southern
22 136 52.56 Furman Southern
23 140 51.82 NC A&T Mid-Eastern
24 142 51.44 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
25 143 51.20 Stony Brook Colonial

Sagarin Conference Ranking

Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 ACC 78.35 9
2 BIG 12 78.61 7
3 PAC-12 78.22 7
4 SEC 77.38 8
5 BIG TEN 77.47 7
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.66 4
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 66.17 2
8 MWC 63.44 2
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 60.12 1
10 MAC 59.33 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.02 1
12 SUN BELT 55.09 1
13 COLONIAL 49.52 1
14 SOUTHERN 49.62 1
15 BIG SKY 48.58 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.12 1
17 BIG SOUTH 43.07 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 40.32 1
19 SOUTHLAND 38.83 1
20 PATRIOT 34.61 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.61 1
22 MID-EASTERN 29.09 1
23 SWAC 24.74 1
24 PIONEER 20.94 1

[IzzyFlexion]

I can't imagine this not to be the case.............but does anyone know if the Missouri Valley has ever finished the season ranked higher than the MAC in this system?

[NovaBison]

I can't imagine this not to be the case.............but does anyone know if the Missouri Valley has ever finished the season ranked higher than the MAC in this system?

2013 and 2014

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/conference/
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/conference/

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 28.5% +6.5%
10-1 41.0% +2.1%
9-2.. 23.1%. -4.2%
8-3.... 6.5% -3.3%
7-4.... 0.9% -1.0%
6-5.... 0.1% -0.1%
5-6.... 0.002%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
@ YSU.... 69.9%.. -7.0. +5.5%. -2.0
v. W. Ill... 84.7% -14.0. +1.3%. -1.0
v. UNI..... 94.2% -21.5. +2.2%. -2.5
@ SDSU.. 71.7%.. -7.5.. -1.9% +1.0
v. USD.... 81.3% -12.0. +1.4%. -0.5
@ Ill. St.. 87.7% -15.5 +11.0%. -5.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change. Opp.. Win%.. Line
.... @ YSU.... 69.9%.. -7.0
.... @ SDSU.. 71.7%.. -7.5
+1 v. USD.... 81.3% -12.0
+1 v. W. Ill... 84.7% -14.0
-2. @ Ill. St.. 87.7% -15.5
.... v. UNI..... 94.2% -21.5

[MrSnuffleupagus]

Interesting that according to Sagarin, this weekend's game will be our toughest. I would have thought SDSU would be.

[bisonaudit]

Interesting that according to Sagarin, this weekend's game will be our toughest. I would have thought SDSU would be.

They're basically the same.

[RasterImage]

It is odd to see that we have almost a 19 in 20 chance in defeating UNI. (Not that I am am complaining.)

[thebootfitter]

It is odd to see that we have almost a 19 in 20 chance in defeating UNI. (Not that I am am complaining.)
If there's ever a time that I discount statistical inferences, it is when we play UNI. Ha ha! Really any game in the Valley, but especially UNI. I don't know if they REALLY feel this way, but it is almost as if they play like UND used to in the '90s -- playing JUST to beat the Bison. Rest of the season, be damned.

[Hammersmith]

Just a note, the gap in Sagarin between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS is just enormous this year. It's the same as the gap between the P5 and the G5. Or from the top of the G5 to the bottom. A 10 point gap is just massive.

[thebootfitter]

Just a note, the gap in Sagarin between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS is just enormous this year. It's the same as the gap between the P5 and the G5. Or from the top of the G5 to the bottom. A 10 point gap is just massive.
Wow, that is pretty crazy! I wonder if that will persist all year now that the OOC games are mostly (all?) finished.

While there are some very strong teams in the Valley, results like NAU and ISUr make me question whether the gap is really that big on the field. Maybe that was an anomaly. And maybe ISUr won't turn out to be so strong this year or NAU really is that good.

[Herd]

Wow, that is pretty crazy! I wonder if that will persist all year now that the OOC games are mostly (all?) finished.

While there are some very strong teams in the Valley, results like NAU and ISUr make me question whether the gap is really that big on the field. Maybe that was an anomaly. And maybe ISUr won't turn out to be so strong this year or NAU really is that good.

It seems like Valley teams are able to withstand P5/G5 games much better than other FCS leagues. That doesn't always translate down to a he FCS games however. That's a good win by NAU, I didn't expect it.

[SoCalBison]

Anyone know (or want to guess) why Sagarin hasn't updated yet with this weekend's results?

[SDbison]

Anyone know (or want to guess) why Sagarin hasn't updated yet with this weekend's results? I was thinking the same thing. Did his computer crash?

[SoCalBison]

One weekend earlier in the season, he didn't post until later Sunday because there was a Sunday game...but I didn't see anything on the schedule today.

[tony]

MAC is playing a game today.

[Gully]

MAC is playing a game today.

I think I saw Western Michigan was delayed to today due to the field covered in water?

[CaBisonFan]

I think I saw Western Michigan was delayed to today due to the field covered in water?Maybe they played overtime through the night.

[Professor Chaos]

I think I saw Western Michigan was delayed to today due to the field covered in water?
They got a bit of rain on Saturday.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tchl5O6UCm8

Personally, I think it would've been awesomely entertaining to see them play on that yesterday but they didn't want to muddy up that high quality MACtion I guess.

[SoCalBison]

OK, appears that the flooding in Kalamazoo is over...so back to the Sagarin numbers.

Bison fall, yes FALL from #39 to #43 after beating the #5 team in FCS...meanwhile, Youngstown moved up one slot, from #74 to #73, losing to the Bison. OUCH! This hurts almost as much as the offsetting penalty call.

Western Illinois is at #82, and the Bison are 13.5 point favorites next weekend. Go Bison!

[DakotaOkie]

11 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.89 60.26
College Football 2017 through games of October 15 Sunday
HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 2.20] [ 3.02] [ 1.37]
COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 30 ELO BLUE
19 South Dakota AA = 83.71 6 0 49.93( 160) 0 0 | 0 0 90.84( 12) 76.65( 39)
31 North Dakota State AA = 80.58 6 0 36.66( 230) 0 0 | 0 0 84.73( 22) 74.83( 46)
48 Western Illinois AA = 74.14 5 1 51.19( 152) 0 0 | 0 1 77.48( 35) 68.69( 67)
76 Northern Iowa AA = 65.05 3 3 64.32( 68) 0 0 | 0 1 65.25( 74) 62.02( 93)
85 Youngstown State AA = 64.03 3 3 61.79( 90) 0 0 | 0 2 56.78( 114) 69.21( 64)
93 South Dakota State AA = 62.36 4 2 54.19( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 57.24( 113) 64.86( 84)
120 Southern Illinois AA = 56.54 3 3 54.00( 130) 0 0 | 0 1 53.61( 128) 56.61( 110)
145 Illinois State AA = 51.88 4 2 42.45( 202) 0 0 | 0 0 52.71( 134) 48.16( 150)
204 Missouri State AA = 35.86 1 5 54.31( 127) 0 0 | 0 1 36.10( 191) 32.66( 208)
228 Indiana State AA = 28.46 0 6 60.37( 101) 0 0 | 0 2 21.87( 231) 31.01( 213)

This is the unbiased rating of the MVFC using only 2017 results (no previous year bias). USD is rated #19 overall in D1 football in the 2017 season.

[DakotaOkie]

OK, appears that the flooding in Kalamazoo is over...so back to the Sagarin numbers.

Bison fall, yes FALL from #39 to #43 after beating the #5 team in FCS...meanwhile, Youngstown moved up one slot, from #74 to #73, losing to the Bison. OUCH! This hurts almost as much as the offsetting penalty call.

Western Illinois is at #82, and the Bison are 13.5 point favorites next weekend. Go Bison!

Even if the Bison go undefeated, they will continue to drop in ratings unless they win by a greater amount than Sagarin predicts. Bison did not exceed the prediction so down they go in the rankings.

[bisonaudit]

11 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.89 60.26
College Football 2017 through games of October 15 Sunday
HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 2.20] [ 3.02] [ 1.37]
COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 30 ELO BLUE
19 South Dakota AA = 83.71 6 0 49.93( 160) 0 0 | 0 0 90.84( 12) 76.65( 39)
31 North Dakota State AA = 80.58 6 0 36.66( 230) 0 0 | 0 0 84.73( 22) 74.83( 46)
48 Western Illinois AA = 74.14 5 1 51.19( 152) 0 0 | 0 1 77.48( 35) 68.69( 67)
76 Northern Iowa AA = 65.05 3 3 64.32( 68) 0 0 | 0 1 65.25( 74) 62.02( 93)
85 Youngstown State AA = 64.03 3 3 61.79( 90) 0 0 | 0 2 56.78( 114) 69.21( 64)
93 South Dakota State AA = 62.36 4 2 54.19( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 57.24( 113) 64.86( 84)
120 Southern Illinois AA = 56.54 3 3 54.00( 130) 0 0 | 0 1 53.61( 128) 56.61( 110)
145 Illinois State AA = 51.88 4 2 42.45( 202) 0 0 | 0 0 52.71( 134) 48.16( 150)
204 Missouri State AA = 35.86 1 5 54.31( 127) 0 0 | 0 1 36.10( 191) 32.66( 208)
228 Indiana State AA = 28.46 0 6 60.37( 101) 0 0 | 0 2 21.87( 231) 31.01( 213)

This is the unbiased rating of the MVFC using only 2017 results (no previous year bias). USD is rated #19 overall in D1 football in the 2017 season.


You don’t want to look at the combo column. That weights ELO equally with BLUE. You want to just look at BLUE stand alone. USD is 39 and NDSU 46. USD would be a half point favorite in the FFD today according to BLUE.

[td577]

You don’t want to look at the combo column. That weights ELO equally with BLUE. You want to just look at BLUE stand alone. USD is 39 and NDSU 46. USD would be a half point favorite in the FFD today according to BLUE.

When is the last time a FCS team was ahead of NDSU in any of the Sagarin rankings? Or has it been more common in the BLUE column?

[bisonaudit]

When is the last time a FCS team was ahead of NDSU in any of the Sagarin rankings? Or has it been more common in the BLUE column?

JMU last year.

[td577]

JMU last year.

I have a short memory. I didn't think JMU passed NDSU last year in Sagarin ratings. 79.16 to 74.29 in combo ratings now that I looked it up.

[THEsocalledfan]

We need you hammer!

[Hammersmith]

Sorry, got hooked on an old video game and never got around to it.



Sagarin's 2017 Week 8 Prediction

Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
43 North Dakota State 76.13
253 Miss. Valley State 8.35 +69.85 +65.00 -4.85
117 Eastern Washington 57.71 +18.42 +27.00 +8.58
Bye
230 Robert Morris 27.54 +50.66 +56.00 +5.34
198 Missouri State 39.36 +38.84 +27.00 -11.84
203 Indiana State 37.67 +36.39 +52.00 +15.61
73 Youngstown State 67.52 +6.54 +3.00 -3.54
82 Western Illinois 64.71 +13.49
95 Northern Iowa 62.49 +15.71
84 South Dakota State 64.41 +9.65
71 South Dakota 68.15 +10.05
129 Illinois State 54.98 +19.08

123 Southern Illinois 56.52

Total Diff: +9.30
Home Field 2.07


Sagarin FCS Top-25

Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 43 76.13 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 66 70.11 James Madison Colonial
3 71 68.15 South Dakota Missouri Valley
4 73 67.52 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
5 82 64.71 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
6 84 64.41 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
7 95 62.49 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
8 103 60.85 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
9 110 59.15 Wofford Southern
10 114 58.11 Northern Arizona Big Sky
11 115 57.86 Sam Houston State Southland
12 117 57.71 Eastern Washington Big Sky
13 118 57.28 Villanova Colonial
14 119 56.89 Central Arkansas Southland
15 121 56.61 Samford Southern
16 123 56.52 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
17 127 55.36 Weber State Big Sky
18 128 55.15 Richmond Colonial
19 129 54.98 Illinois State Missouri Valley
20 134 53.73 Mercer Southern
21 136 53.11 Delaware Colonial
22 137 52.90 Western Carolina Southern
23 138 52.62 The Citadel Southern
24 139 52.62 Furman Southern
25 140 52.46 Montana Big Sky


Sagarin Conference Ranking

Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 ACC 78.36 9
2 BIG 12 78.67 9
3 PAC-12 78.06 8
4 SEC 77.64 9
5 BIG TEN 77.58 8
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.18 3
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 65.73 2
8 MWC 63.52 2
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 60.52 1
10 MAC 59.60 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.50 1
12 SUN BELT 55.87 1
13 COLONIAL 49.56 1
14 SOUTHERN 49.73 1
15 BIG SKY 48.95 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.58 1
17 BIG SOUTH 42.77 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 40.19 1
19 SOUTHLAND 39.50 1
20 PATRIOT 34.47 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.76 1
22 MID-EASTERN 29.76 1
23 SWAC 25.30 1
24 PIONEER 21.06 1

[Tony Almeida]

Sorry, got hooked on an old video game and never got around to it.Whoa, screw hypothetical ratings...what's the name of the "old video game"?

[THEsocalledfan]

Sorry, got hooked on an old video game and never got around to it.



Sagarin's 2017 Week 8 Prediction

Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
43 North Dakota State 76.13
253 Miss. Valley State 8.35 +69.85 +65.00 -4.85
117 Eastern Washington 57.71 +18.42 +27.00 +8.58
Bye
230 Robert Morris 27.54 +50.66 +56.00 +5.34
198 Missouri State 39.36 +38.84 +27.00 -11.84
203 Indiana State 37.67 +36.39 +52.00 +15.61
73 Youngstown State 67.52 +6.54 +3.00 -3.54
82 Western Illinois 64.71 +13.49
95 Northern Iowa 62.49 +15.71
84 South Dakota State 64.41 +9.65
71 South Dakota 68.15 +10.05
129 Illinois State 54.98 +19.08

123 Southern Illinois 56.52

Total Diff: +9.30
Home Field 2.07


Sagarin FCS Top-25

Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 43 76.13 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 66 70.11 James Madison Colonial
3 71 68.15 South Dakota Missouri Valley
4 73 67.52 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
5 82 64.71 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
6 84 64.41 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
7 95 62.49 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
8 103 60.85 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
9 110 59.15 Wofford Southern
10 114 58.11 Northern Arizona Big Sky
11 115 57.86 Sam Houston State Southland
12 117 57.71 Eastern Washington Big Sky
13 118 57.28 Villanova Colonial
14 119 56.89 Central Arkansas Southland
15 121 56.61 Samford Southern
16 123 56.52 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
17 127 55.36 Weber State Big Sky
18 128 55.15 Richmond Colonial
19 129 54.98 Illinois State Missouri Valley
20 134 53.73 Mercer Southern
21 136 53.11 Delaware Colonial
22 137 52.90 Western Carolina Southern
23 138 52.62 The Citadel Southern
24 139 52.62 Furman Southern
25 140 52.46 Montana Big Sky


Sagarin Conference Ranking

Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 ACC 78.36 9
2 BIG 12 78.67 9
3 PAC-12 78.06 8
4 SEC 77.64 9
5 BIG TEN 77.58 8
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.18 3
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 65.73 2
8 MWC 63.52 2
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 60.52 1
10 MAC 59.60 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.50 1
12 SUN BELT 55.87 1
13 COLONIAL 49.56 1
14 SOUTHERN 49.73 1
15 BIG SKY 48.95 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.58 1
17 BIG SOUTH 42.77 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 40.19 1
19 SOUTHLAND 39.50 1
20 PATRIOT 34.47 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.76 1
22 MID-EASTERN 29.76 1
23 SWAC 25.30 1
24 PIONEER 21.06 1



Mark it down; stats and coaches poll will have Youngstown outside of the top 10 just because of 3 losses.....that is how clueless those polls are. That was an excellent football team we somehow found a way to beat.

[Hammerhead]

When is the last time a FCS team was ahead of NDSU in any of the Sagarin rankings? Or has it been more common in the BLUE column?

Last year JMU moved up in the rankings and finished at third at the end of the regular season. The final rankings after the championship game had YSU at 4th and EWU at third, NDSU 2nd and JMU on top.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 39.9% +11.5%
10-1 40.9%.. -0.1%
9-2.. 16.0%.. -7.1%
8-3.... 3.0%.. -3.5%
7-4.... 0.3%.. -0.7%
6-5.... 0.01% -0.1%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
v. W. Ill... 84.1% -13.5. -0.6% +0.5
v. UNI..... 87.7% -15.5. -6.5% +6.0
@ SDSU.. 76.3%.. -9.5 +4.6%. -2.0
v. USD.... 77.2% -10.0. -4.1% +2.0
@ Ill. St.. 92.0% -19.0 +4.3%. -3.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change. Opp.. Win%.. Line
... @ SDSU.. 76.3%.. -9.5
.... v. USD.... 77.2% -10.0
.... v. W. Ill... 84.1% -13.5
+1 v. UNI..... 87.7% -15.5
-1. @ Ill. St.. 92.0% -19.0

[Bison 4 Life]

Trending in the right direction!

[THEsocalledfan]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 39.9% +11.5%
10-1 40.9%.. -0.1%
9-2.. 16.0%.. -7.1%
8-3.... 3.0%.. -3.5%
7-4.... 0.3%.. -0.7%
6-5.... 0.01% -0.1%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
v. W. Ill... 84.1% -13.5. -0.6% +0.5
v. UNI..... 87.7% -15.5. -6.5% +6.0
@ SDSU.. 76.3%.. -9.5 +4.6%. -2.0
v. USD.... 77.2% -10.0. -4.1% +2.0
@ Ill. St.. 92.0% -19.0 +4.3%. -3.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change. Opp.. Win%.. Line
... @ SDSU.. 76.3%.. -9.5
.... v. USD.... 77.2% -10.0
.... v. W. Ill... 84.1% -13.5
+1 v. UNI..... 87.7% -15.5
-1. @ Ill. St.. 92.0% -19.0

How is SDSU coming out harder than USD? I realize one at home and one on road, but is there a bye in there or something?

[Bison 4 Life]

How is SDSU coming out harder than USD? I realize one at home and one on road, but is there a bye in there or something?

I think it was from where they started. SDSU was always listed as our hardest game of the season. I think by the time it's played, it will probably be USD

[bisonaudit]

How is SDSU coming out harder than USD? I realize one at home and one on road, but is there a bye in there or something?

home v road. 4.14 point swing and the South Dakota schools are separated by somewhat less than 4 points in the ratings. So SDSU away is coming out a half point harder which is basically nothing.

[Hammerhead]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings

[Christopher Moen]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings

Outside the F'Hawkers not being in the top-60, I would say the site needs better variables in its equation. Seriously, 5-1 Elon is ranked #3?

[MNLonghorn10]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratingsSomeone needs to scrap that computer system

[NDSU1980]

Outside the F'Hawkers not being in the top-60, I would say the site needs better variables in its equation. Seriously, 5-1 Elon is ranked #3?

Heck, they aren't even the F'hawkers according to that site. Has them listed as the sioux. I'd say more than a little credibility problem there.

[LongLostAlum]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings
Their PWR (power) rankings seemed about right, but their overall RANK really strange.

Also noticed on Sagarin how weak our strength of schedule rank is so far, (214) out of 254 teams.

[thebootfitter]

Also noticed on Sagarin how weak our strength of schedule rank is so far, (214) out of 254 teams.
Mississippi Valley State? Robert Morris? Missouri State? Indiana State? Sounds pretty weak to me. Especially when a lot of other teams get to play an FBS team OOC to (usually) boost their SoS a little bit. We'll see that metric continue to change as we get further into the slate of Valley teams. We should end up in the 160 to 180 range, I would think, which is about right for a Valley team that doesn't play NDSU and has a weak OOC.

[LongLostAlum]

Mississippi Valley State? Robert Morris? Missouri State? Indiana State? Sounds pretty weak to me. Especially when a lot of other teams get to play an FBS team OOC to (usually) boost their SoS a little bit. We'll see that metric continue to change as we get further into the slate of Valley teams. We should end up in the 160 to 180 range, I would think, which is about right for a Valley team that doesn't play NDSU and has a weak OOC.

Fortunately, we beat those teams by pretty wide margins, so the weak schedule didn't impact us negatively in the Sagarin ratings. You're right, we can certainly expect our SoS to improve with the remainder of our Valley schedule.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 45.0% +5.1%
10-1 40.2%. -0.7%
9-2.. 12.9%. -3.0%
8-3.... 1.8%. -1.2%
7-4.... 0.1%. -0.2%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
v. UNI..... 85.2% -14.0 -2.5% +1.5
@ SDSU.. 75.1%.. -9.0 -1.2% +0.5
v. USD.... 79.8% -11.5 +2.6% -1.5
@ Ill. St.. 88.1% -16.0 -3.9% +3.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change Opp.. Win%.. Line
... @ SDSU.. 75.1%.. -9.0
... v. USD.... 79.8% -11.5
... v. UNI..... 85.2% -14.0
... @ Ill. St.. 88.1% -16.0

[thebootfitter]

Looks like we climbed from #43 to #41 in Sagarin's ratings, even after dropping a little by the rating value. (Can't remember exactly what we were, but I'm pretty sure it was above 76. Now at 75.91.)

JMU keeps climbing. They are at #54 now with a rating of 72.61.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[bisonaudit]

76.13 last week. Down just 0.22.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2017 Week 9 Prediction
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
41 North Dakota State 75.91
253 Miss. Valley State 8.75 +69.34 +65.00 -4.34
131 Eastern Washington 54.52 +21.39 +27.00 +5.61
Bye
229 Robert Morris 26.88 +51.21 +56.00 +4.79
197 Missouri State 38.12 +39.97 +27.00 -12.97
206 Indiana State 35.90 +37.83 +52.00 +14.17
75 Youngstown State 66.82 +6.91 +3.00 -3.91
81 Western Illinois 66.07 +12.02 +12.00 -0.02
89 Northern Iowa 63.93 +14.16
85 South Dakota State 64.59 +9.14
76 South Dakota 66.82 +11.27
115 Illinois State 57.74 +15.99

110 Southern Illinois 58.21

Total Diff: +3.33
Home Field 2.18


Sagarin FCS Top-25
Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 41 75.91 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 54 72.61 James Madison Colonial
3 75 66.82 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
4 76 66.82 South Dakota Missouri Valley
5 81 66.07 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
6 85 64.59 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
7 89 63.93 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
8 100 60.81 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
9 103 59.27 Northern Arizona Big Sky
10 110 58.21 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
11 112 57.80 Central Arkansas Southland
12 113 57.79 Weber State Big Sky
13 115 57.74 Illinois State Missouri Valley
14 116 57.70 Villanova Colonial
15 117 57.67 Samford Southern
16 120 56.91 Sam Houston State Southland
17 122 56.30 Wofford Southern
18 126 55.48 Delaware Colonial
19 128 55.13 Furman Southern
20 129 54.83 Southern Utah Big Sky
21 131 54.52 Eastern Washington Big Sky
22 132 53.78 Princeton Ivy League
23 133 53.76 Mercer Southern
24 134 53.56 Richmond Colonial
25 135 53.55 Stony Brook Colonial


Sagarin Conference Ranking
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 78.96 9
2 ACC 78.32 9
3 PAC-12 77.26 8
4 BIG TEN 77.22 8
5 SEC 76.48 8
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.93 3
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 65.54 2
8 MWC 63.53 1
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 61.17 1
10 MAC 59.98 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 56.06 1
12 SUN BELT 54.03 1
13 COLONIAL 49.89 1
14 SOUTHERN 49.51 1
15 BIG SKY 48.99 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.53 1
17 BIG SOUTH 41.92 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 39.80 1
19 SOUTHLAND 39.27 1
20 NORTHEAST 34.19 1
21 PATRIOT 33.08 1
22 MID-EASTERN 30.09 1
23 SWAC 25.16 1
24 PIONEER 20.45 1

[Bisonator98]

Question for people who understand this, why is JMU climbing while playing lesser opponents then NDSU right now? Is it because of the margin of victory?

[THEsocalledfan]

Question for people who understand this, why is JMU climbing while playing lesser opponents then NDSU right now? Is it because of the margin of victory?

Yes, and if teams you beat in past do well, it also helps.

[bisonaudit]

Yes, and if teams you beat in past do well, it also helps.

If the teams you lost to do well that also helps.

They beat William and Mary by 32 on the road. I don’t know what their rating was last week but JMU was 70 and W&M is still at like 44 or something now, so JMU certainly won this week by significantly more than the Sagarin model expected, perhaps two touchdowns more.

[Mr Pep Band]

Sagarin's 2017 Week 9 Prediction
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
41 North Dakota State 75.91
253 Miss. Valley State 8.75 +69.34 +65.00 -4.34
131 Eastern Washington 54.52 +21.39 +27.00 +5.61
Bye
229 Robert Morris 26.88 +51.21 +56.00 +4.79
197 Missouri State 38.12 +39.97 +27.00 -12.97
206 Indiana State 35.90 +37.83 +52.00 +14.17
75 Youngstown State 66.82 +6.91 +3.00 -3.91
81 Western Illinois 66.07 +12.02 +12.00 -0.02
89 Northern Iowa 63.93 +14.16
85 South Dakota State 64.59 +9.14
76 South Dakota 66.82 +11.27
115 Illinois State 57.74 +15.99

110 Southern Illinois 58.21

Total Diff: +3.33
Home Field 2.18


Sagarin FCS Top-25
Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 41 75.91 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 54 72.61 James Madison Colonial
3 75 66.82 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
4 76 66.82 South Dakota Missouri Valley
5 81 66.07 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
6 85 64.59 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
7 89 63.93 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
8 100 60.81 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
9 103 59.27 Northern Arizona Big Sky
10 110 58.21 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
11 112 57.80 Central Arkansas Southland
12 113 57.79 Weber State Big Sky
13 115 57.74 Illinois State Missouri Valley
14 116 57.70 Villanova Colonial
15 117 57.67 Samford Southern
16 120 56.91 Sam Houston State Southland
17 122 56.30 Wofford Southern
18 126 55.48 Delaware Colonial
19 128 55.13 Furman Southern
20 129 54.83 Southern Utah Big Sky
21 131 54.52 Eastern Washington Big Sky
22 132 53.78 Princeton Ivy League
23 133 53.76 Mercer Southern
24 134 53.56 Richmond Colonial
25 135 53.55 Stony Brook Colonial


Sagarin Conference Ranking
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 78.96 9
2 ACC 78.32 9
3 PAC-12 77.26 8
4 BIG TEN 77.22 8
5 SEC 76.48 8
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.93 3
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 65.54 2
8 MWC 63.53 1
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 61.17 1
10 MAC 59.98 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 56.06 1
12 SUN BELT 54.03 1
13 COLONIAL 49.89 1
14 SOUTHERN 49.51 1
15 BIG SKY 48.99 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.53 1
17 BIG SOUTH 41.92 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 39.80 1
19 SOUTHLAND 39.27 1
20 NORTHEAST 34.19 1
21 PATRIOT 33.08 1
22 MID-EASTERN 30.09 1
23 SWAC 25.16 1
24 PIONEER 20.45 1



If i am reading this right, NDSU is the 4th best team outside the P5 conferences. The only FBS teams better than us are

Notre Dame (Independent) 6-1
U of Central Florida (American) 6-0
U of Southern Florida (American) 7-0

:cheers::cheers::judges::judges:


We should totally go FBS now!! (so much purple)

[tony]

If i am reading this right, NDSU is the 4th best team outside the P5 conferences. The only FBS teams better than us are

Notre Dame (Independent) 6-1
U of Central Florida (American) 6-0
U of Southern Florida (American) 7-0

:cheers::cheers::judges::judges:


We should totally go FBS now!! (so much purple)

Which is pretty amazing considering that this year's team has a ways to go to show that it's one the four best teams NDSU has had since 2010.

[THEsocalledfan]

Audit, you had a chance to run the numbers for final record yet?

[Professor Chaos]

Audit, you had a chance to run the numbers for final record yet?
He had it up Sunday morning: http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?38402-2017-Sagarin-Says&p=1231876#post1231876

[SoCalBison]

Bison beat the spread, drop UNI 30-14, and fall 2 spots in Sagarin to #43. UNI loses to Bison, and falls 1 spot to #90.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2017 Week 10 Prediction
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
43 North Dakota State 75.63
253 Miss. Valley State 7.18 +70.59 +65.00 -5.59
129 Eastern Washington 54.81 +20.82 +27.00 +6.18
Bye
232 Robert Morris 25.41 +52.36 +56.00 +3.64
183 Missouri State 42.25 +35.52 +27.00 -8.52
214 Indiana State 33.47 +40.02 +52.00 +11.98
96 Youngstown State 62.09 +11.40 +3.00 -8.40
88 Western Illinois 63.37 +14.40 +12.00 -2.40
90 Northern Iowa 63.16 +14.61 +16.00 +1.39
77 South Dakota State 67.22 +6.27
65 South Dakota 69.73 +8.04
92 Illinois State 62.93 +10.56

125 Southern Illinois 55.52

Total Diff: -1.72
Home Field 2.14

Sagarin FCS Top-25
Rank SagRank RATING Team Conference
1 43 75.63 North Dakota State Missouri Valley
2 60 72.18 James Madison Colonial
3 65 69.73 South Dakota Missouri Valley
4 77 67.22 South Dakota State Missouri Valley
5 88 63.37 Western Illinois Missouri Valley
6 90 63.16 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
7 92 62.93 Illinois State Missouri Valley
8 96 62.09 Youngstown State Missouri Valley
9 99 61.10 Jacksonville State Ohio Valley
10 101 60.46 Northern Arizona Big Sky
11 104 59.81 Central Arkansas Southland
12 110 58.76 Weber State Big Sky
13 114 57.93 Furman Southern
14 117 57.25 Sam Houston State Southland
15 123 55.69 Southern Utah Big Sky
16 124 55.63 Villanova Colonial
17 125 55.52 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley
18 126 55.50 Samford Southern
19 127 55.06 Wofford Southern
20 129 54.81 Eastern Washington Big Sky
21 132 54.47 Stony Brook Colonial
22 133 54.42 Mercer Southern
23 134 54.32 Yale Ivy League
24 135 53.65 Delaware Colonial
25 139 53.17 Richmond Colonial

Sagarin Conference Ranking
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 79.20 9
2 ACC 77.81 10
3 BIG TEN 77.45 8
4 PAC-12 77.26 8
5 SEC 76.27 8
6 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 66.80 3
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS 66.29 2
8 MWC 63.77 2
9 MISSOURI VALLEY 61.12 1
10 MAC 60.46 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 56.32 1
12 SUN BELT 53.96 1
13 COLONIAL 50.05 1
14 BIG SKY 49.43 1
15 SOUTHERN 49.29 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 42.81 1
17 BIG SOUTH 41.93 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 39.98 1
19 SOUTHLAND 38.95 1
20 NORTHEAST 33.93 1
21 PATRIOT 32.87 1
22 MID-EASTERN 29.54 1
23 SWAC 25.33 1
24 PIONEER 20.85 1

[THEsocalledfan]

Calling Audit. What are the current odds of running the table.......?

[Professor Chaos]

It's kind of comical (or maybe just sad) that the Bison didn't beat Sagarin's spread vs MVSU when they won by 65.

[bisonaudit]

Calling Audit. What are the current odds of running the table.......?

Apologies for the delay. Just landed in Singapore a few hours ago. Super jet lagged and going to be preoccupied setting up house for a bit. I'll try to post an update later in the week.

[Gully]

Apologies for the delay. Just landed in Singapore a few hours ago. Super jet lagged and going to be preoccupied setting up house for a bit. I'll try to post an update later in the week.

So maybe Audit is human? I always pictured a large box with a lot of blinking lights and various cables.

[Hammerhead]

Apologies for the delay. Just landed in Singapore a few hours ago. Super jet lagged and going to be preoccupied setting up house for a bit. I'll try to post an update later in the week.

Understandable. We thought an 8-hour flight to London was horrible and United just started a flight from LAX to Singapore that is just a few minutes shy of 18 hours.

[EndZoneQB]

Understandable. We thought an 8-hour flight to London was horrible and United just started a flight from LAX to Singapore that is just a few minutes shy of 18 hours.

Longest non-stop flight right now I think. They said the route was about $177 for basic economy.

[IzzyFlexion]

Understandable. We thought an 8-hour flight to London was horrible and United just started a flight from LAX to Singapore that is just a few minutes shy of 18 hours.

Awww yeah..........The blood clot express!

[bisonaudit]

Awww yeah..........The blood clot express!

One word. Compression socks.

787 dreamliner is a pretty comfortable ride though. I've felt far worse deplaning in London than I did after SFO to SIN.

[56BISON73]

One word. Compression socks.

787 dreamliner is a pretty comfortable ride though. I've felt far worse deplaning in London than I did after SFO to SIN.

Wear them on long trips and at tailgate all the time. They make a big difference.

[thebootfitter]

One word. Compression socks.

787 dreamliner is a pretty comfortable ride though. I've felt far worse deplaning in London than I did after SFO to SIN.
I just took the 787 to London on Saturday. Back Friday. May have to look for some compression socks before I head home.

[Gully]

Awww yeah..........The blood clot express!

Dumb question here, I'm sure. But is this concern due to sitting in such a compressed/uncomfortable way or is it due to being in an airplane that long in general? On long flights I typically have my legs up or am laying down completely. Is that still a concern?

[NDSUSR]

Dumb question here, I'm sure. But is this concern due to sitting in such a compressed/uncomfortable way or is it due to being in an airplane that long in general? On long flights I typically have my legs up or am laying down completely. Is that still a concern?

Google deep vein thrombosis.

[THEsocalledfan]

Dumb question here, I'm sure. But is this concern due to sitting in such a compressed/uncomfortable way or is it due to being in an airplane that long in general? On long flights I typically have my legs up or am laying down completely. Is that still a concern?

So, there are people who fly overseas, and don't have lay down flat beds to sleep in? What's next, no Dom or caviar? /purple

[Gully]

Google deep vein thrombosis.

Well that's scary shit.

[Gully]

So, there are people who fly overseas, and don't have lay down flat beds to sleep in? What's next, no Dom or caviar? /purple

I know, right? I don't think I could go back to coach for a long flight after experiencing the other side.

[bisonaudit]

It’s tomorrow here already so I’d better get this up.

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 38.5%. -6.5%
10-1 43.5% +3.3%
9-2.. 16.0% +3.1%
8-3.... 1.9% +0.1%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
@ SDSU.. 67.9%.. -6.5 -7.2% +2.5
v. USD.... 72.4%.. -8.0 -7.4% +3.5
@ Ill. St.. 78.3% -10.5 -9.8% +5.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change Opp.. Win%.. Line
... @ SDSU.. 67.9%.. -6.5
... v. USD.... 72.4%.. -8.0
... @ Ill. St.. 78.3% -10.5

[56BISON73]

I just took the 787 to London on Saturday. Back Friday. May have to look for some compression socks before I head home.

You can get two different kinds. One is very thin and you can put a regular pair of sock over them. Then there is the Dr Scholls WORK compression socks which are thicker. I prefer the Work compression socks. Both kinds pull up over your calves.
If you spend a lot of time on your feet they work for that as well.

[gumby013]

Did business class on the 17 hour flight from Dallas to Sydney. Worth every penny. No way I would do that trip in coach.

[Christopher Moen]

Remember that one time President Bresciani flew to India and the SBoHE and Good Ole Boys club threw a fit because it wasn’t coach, even when the fee was eventually paid by a third party? Hopefully they give Dean some compression socks next time.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bison 4 Life]

Remember that one time President Bresciani flew to India and the SBoHE and Good Ole Boys club threw a fit because it wasn’t coach, even when the fee was eventually paid by a third party? Hopefully they give Dean some compression socks next time.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

he has to pay for them himself.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin silliness:

I finally read what his SOS numbers mean. Basically, he uses the main rating to compute what rating it would take for a team to go .500 versus that particular schedule. Home/away is accounted for.

So NDSU's schedule rating is currently 45.98. That means a team with that rating would be expected to be 4-4 at this point in the season. Actual teams around that mark are UND, Albany, Austin Peay & Georgia Southern.

So I took it the other way. NDSU's current rating is 75.63. The schedule of the team closest to that number is Baylor at 75.65. Baylor has the 14th toughest schedule to date according to Sagarin and NDSU would be projected to go 4-4 against it. It's actually pretty interesting to think that there are only 13 schedules out there where NDSU is likely to have gone less than .500. Wonder what that will look like at the end of the year?

[SoCalBison]

Bison drop 6 spots this week from 43 to 49. Frankly, I expected a bigger fall after yesterday.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's Nov 4 ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
10-1 55.5% +12.0%
9-2.. 38.2% +22.2%
8-3.... 6.3%. +4.4%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
v. USD.... 70.7%.. -7.5 -1.7% +0.5
@ Ill. St.. 78.6% -10.5 +0.3% -0.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change Opp.. Win%.. Line
... v. USD.... 70.7%.. -7.5
... @ Ill. St.. 78.6% -10.5

[Hammerhead]

As of this week, 7 of the top 9 teams are in the MVFC.

[JDZ]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Why not the current rankings? Why 2.61 points?

[bisonaudit]

Why not the current rankings? Why 2.61 points?

because I haven’t updated that sentence all year. I’m using the current rankings.

i think I got that number from Wayne Winston’s book mathletics. Don’t remember for sure. In any event a bye week is historically worth something like a field goal based on various analysis. When I set things up I just picked one of them I’d seen recently.

[JDZ]

because I haven’t updated that sentence all year. I’m using the current rankings.

i think I got that number from Wayne Winston’s book mathletics. Don’t remember for sure. In any event a bye week is historically worth something like a field goal based on various analysis. When I set things up I just picked one of them I’d seen recently.
Okay. I figured you were using the current rankings, but nobody on bisonville has ever caught you in a mistake. I thought the 2.61 was maybe a mistake, too, since Sagarin is using 2.14.

[bisonaudit]

Okay. I figured you were using the current rankings, but nobody on bisonville has ever caught you in a mistake. I thought the 2.61 was maybe a mistake, too, since Sagarin is using 2.14.

That’s not true. Bowler got me just the other week being too aggressive advocating a PAT2 when it wasn’t the best choice. I make mistakes all the time.

Sagarin’s 2.14 is home field. I use the number published each week for home field.

[SoCalBison]

Big win over USD brings the Bison up 9 spots to #40 in Sagarin this week.

[89MTBISON]

It's truly the twilight zone when NDSU has a lower SOS than SHSU:

North Dakota State 31.09 (237)
Sam Houston State 43.77 (208)

Luckily that won't last for long.


This was the overwhelming thought in 2013 also between NDSU and the Jimmy Garappolo led Eastern Illinois Panthers. There's a lot of season (and postseason) left.

North Dakota State SOS 142
Sam Houston State SOS 208

[Professor Chaos]

North Dakota State SOS 142
Sam Houston State SOS 208
And all was right in the world again....

[LongLostAlum]

Subjectively, ISU is ranked 25th, on the verge of getting bumped out of the playoffs with a loss to NDSU. But objectively, Sagarin has them ranked 11th in FCS. This week, Sagarin has 7 MVFC teams in the top 11 of FCS.

Other than JMU and a few others, MVFC dominates FCS football at the upper level; will be interesting to see how many of the 7 will make the playoffs. Jacksonville State, Weber State, and Central Arkansas are the other non-MVFC teams in the top 11.

[SoCalBison]

After powering through to win the snowy slog in Normal, Bison fall one spot in Sagarin to #41.

[DakotaOkie]

After powering through to win the snowy slog in Normal, Bison fall one spot in Sagarin to #41.

Did not put enough points on the board in the victory...needed another 30 point blowout to move up or stay put.

[Hammerhead]

Bison may have dropped to #41, but JMU dropped to #52.

[bisonaudit]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.31 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team............. Rd1.... Rd2.... Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.00 (1) James Madison.......... 95.0% 76.5% 54.4% 26.1%
39.58 Lehigh................... 8.3%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
56.07 Stony Brook......... 91.7%. 4.9%.. 1.3%. 0.2%.. 0.0%

62.56 (8) Southern Utah.......... 57.7% 11.6%. 3.7%.. 0.8%
66.58 Western Illinois.... 54.6% 25.9%. 7.3%.. 3.0%.. 0.9%
62.70 Weber State........ 45.4% 16.4%.. 3.3%.. 1.1%. 0.2%


70.88 (5) South Dakota State... 78.1% 55.0% 25.4% 10.8%
47.91 Monmouth-NJ......... 6.7%. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
65.97 Northern Iowa...... 93.3% 21.8% 12.5%. 4.0%.. 1.2%

62.20 (4) Central Arkansas........ 92.1% 32.2%. 8.1%.. 1.8%
44.45 Central Connecticut 30.2%. 1.4%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
49.14 New Hampshire..... 69.8%. 6.4%.. 0.3%. 0.0%.. 0.0%




63.60 (3) Jacksonville State....... 75.9% 47.8%. 9.0%.. 2.8%
59.70 Samford............... 47.0% 12.1%. 5.5%.. 0.7%. 0.1%
58.40 Kennesaw State.... 53.0% 12.0%. 5.1%.. 0.6%. 0.1%

57.34 (6) Sam Houston State.... 46.9% 15.2%. 1.6%.. 0.3%
65.03 South Dakota....... 89.1% 51.8% 26.2%. 5.4%.. 1.9%
46.04 Nicholls State........ 10.9%. 1.3%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%


55.37 (7) Wofford.................... 62.3%. 3.8%.. 1.1%. 0.2%
58.60 Furman................ 69.5% 31.3%. 2.7%.. 0.9%. 0.2%
49.42 Elon..................... 30.5%. 6.4%.. 0.2%. 0.0%.. 0.0%

76.20 (2) North Dakota State.... 96.3% 91.4% 80.1% 52.5%
45.25 San Diego............. 13.9%. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
57.61 Northern Arizona... 86.1%. 3.6%.. 1.9%. 0.6%.. 0.1%

[thebootfitter]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.31 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team............. Rd1.... Rd2.... Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.00 (1) James Madison.......... 95.0% 76.5% 54.4% 26.1%
...
76.20 (2) North Dakota State.... 96.3% 91.4% 80.1% 52.5%

Wow! According to these numbers, NDSU definitely got the easier road to Frisco. The games still have to be played, and anything can happen, but I'll take it!


Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[bisonaudit]

Wow! According to these numbers, NDSU definitely got the easier road to Frisco. The games still have to be played, and anything can happen, but I'll take it!


Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

There are 6 teams on JMU's side that will likely be 65+ ratings points should they meet JMU. There are only 2 in NDSU's half and none in NDSUs quarter. Conversely, JMU is guaranteed a mid sixties opponent in their quarter final.

[MNLonghorn10]

I hope it's Elon VS Monmouth in frisco

[90 BISON]

According to these numbers we have over a 50% chance of winning the title? Am I reading that correctly?

[bisonaudit]

According to these numbers we have over a 50% chance of winning the title? Am I reading that correctly?

We were over 50% to win in '14-'15, '13-'14, and '12-'13 to start the tournament as well. Over 40% last year without the profoundly favorable bracket we have this time around.

[bisonaudit]

Weighted for the likelihood of playing them, the average rating of our prospective quarter final opponents is 7.62 points lower than JMU's and our semifinal is 4.87 points lower. While round 2 our matchup is only 1.19 points harder. Directionally, that's the only one that makes sense, because in theory the higher seeded team should not only be better, they should also get an easier draw.

[bisonaudit]

If you flipped NDSU and JMU while leaving the rest of the bracket untouched. NDSU’s projected chance of winning the title would decrease 17% to 43.6%. While JMU’s would increase 33% to 34.7%.

[Hammerhead]

Comparing average Sagarin ratings of the 3 potential opponents in the quarterfinals, JMU has the toughest game with average opponent rating of 57.50 and NDSU has the easiest at 53.25 which really isn't that far apart.

[Professor Chaos]

Comparing average Sagarin ratings of the 3 potential opponents in the quarterfinals, JMU has the toughest game with average opponent rating of 57.50 and NDSU has the easiest at 53.25 which really isn't that far apart.
The committee did JMU no favors that's for sure. I thought the 3 best unseeded teams (WIU, Stony Brook, and Weber St) are all in JMU's quarter of the bracket and the two best seeded teams not named JMU or NDSU (SDSU and UCA) are in their half of the bracket. Their route could go Stony Brook then WIU/SUU, then SDSU/UCA to get to Frisco. I'll gladly take NAU, then Wofford/Furman, then JSU/SHSU/USD over that.

[MankatoBison]

Yeah our half is definitively easier, and I don't think it's particularly close.

However I'd have to say that the committee would disagree with this statement. I think they'd favor SHSU and JSU over New England patriots on a neutral field.

[THEsocalledfan]

Yeah our half is definitively easier, and I don't think it's particularly close.

However I'd have to say that the committee would disagree with this statement. I think they'd favor SHSU and JSU over New England patriots on a neutral field.

They probably put them in our bracket to work on humility.....

(BTW, they owed us this after the 2015 bracket of death.....)

[bisonaudit]

Comparing average Sagarin ratings of the 3 potential opponents in the quarterfinals, JMU has the toughest game with average opponent rating of 57.50 and NDSU has the easiest at 53.25 which really isn't that far apart.

JMU potential quarterfinal opponents are all rated over 62.50. ??

[SoCalBison]

Bye week moves the Bison down one slot to #42. Second-round opponent San Diego moves up 24 to #149 with the win over Northern Arizona. Bison favored next week by 27.18 including Fargodome's home field advantage.

[Professor Chaos]

Bye week moves the Bison down one slot to #42. Second-round opponent San Diego moves up 24 to #149 with the win over Northern Arizona. Bison favored next week by 27.18 including Fargodome's home field advantage.
Plus bye week should bump it closer to 30 no?

[SoCalBison]

Plus bye week should bump it closer to 30 no?

Did not calculate for the bye...my math skills are not that advanced. (Only a tinge of purple)

[bisonaudit]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.32 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team................. Rd2.... Qtr.... Semi.... Final
72.98 (1) James Madison...... 94.0% 77.4% 55.1% 26.3%
56.76 Stony Brook................. 6.0%.. 1.6%. 0.3%.. 0.0%

62.45 (8) Southern Utah....... 61.8% 12.6%. 4.1%.. 0.9%
63.33 Weber State............... 38.2%.. 8.4%.. 2.9%. 0.7%


70.79 (5) South Dakota State 74.5% 52.7% 24.4% 10.2%
66.83 Northern Iowa............ 25.5% 15.4%. 5.2%.. 1.6%

62.28 (4) Central Arkansas... 88.7% 31.2%. 8.0%.. 1.7%
50.82 New Hampshire.......... 11.3%.. 0.7%. 0.0%.. 0.0%




63.40 (3) Jacksonville State.. 74.1% 45.6%. 8.0%.. 2.4%
59.60 Kennesaw State.......... 25.9% 11.6%.. 1.4%. 0.3%

57.44 (6) Sam Houston State 42.9% 14.2%. 1.4%.. 0.2%
64.78 South Dakota............. 57.1% 28.6%. 5.6%.. 1.9%


55.09 (7) Wofford............... 54.9%.. 2.9%.. 0.8%. 0.1%
58.37 Furman..................... 45.1%. 3.5%.. 1.1%.. 0.2%

76.10 (2) North Dakota State 98.6% 93.1% 81.6% 53.3%
51.24 San Diego................... 1.4%.. 0.5%. 0.1%.. 0.0%

[IzzyFlexion]

University of San Diego


Round 2: 1.4%........THERE IS A CHANCE
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2016-06-07-1465339491-8036417-image-thumb.jpeg
Round 3: 0.5%........THERE IS A CHANCE
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2016-06-07-1465339491-8036417-image-thumb.jpeg
Round 4: 0.1%........THERE IS A CHANCE
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2016-06-07-1465339491-8036417-image-thumb.jpeg
Round 5: 0.0%........
https://cdn3.whatculture.com/images/2014/01/Dumb-Dumber-To-600x400.jpg

[tony]

University of San Diego


HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! That's awesome!

[bisonaudit]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.33 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team................. Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.43 (1) James Madison...... 77.4% 49.6% 23.4%
65.61 Weber State............... 22.6%.. 6.9%.. 1.9%

71.64 (5) South Dakota State 93.7% 43.1% 18.2%
53.18 New Hampshire............ 6.3%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%


61.84 Kennesaw State.......... 51.1%.. 5.1%.. 1.5%
59.13 (6) Sam Houston State 48.9%.. 6.7%.. 0.9%

57.49 (7) Wofford................. 5.8%.. 2.4%.. 0.3%
76.48 (2) North Dakota State 94.2% 85.7% 53.7%

[MNLonghorn10]

Kennesaw St is favored at Sam Houston?? lol

[THEsocalledfan]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.33 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team................. Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.43 (1) James Madison...... 77.4% 49.6% 23.4%
65.61 Weber State............... 22.6%.. 6.9%.. 1.9%

71.64 (5) South Dakota State 93.7% 43.1% 18.2%
53.18 New Hampshire............ 6.3%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%


61.84 Kennesaw State.......... 51.1%.. 5.1%.. 1.5%
59.13 (6) Sam Houston State 48.9%.. 6.7%.. 0.9%

57.49 (7) Wofford................. 5.8%.. 2.4%.. 0.3%
76.48 (2) North Dakota State 94.2% 85.7% 53.7%

SDSU vs JMU could be an epic game if the Jacks don't crap the bed.

[bisonaudit]

Kennesaw St is favored at Sam Houston?? lol

Looking through all of the various Sagarin ratings excluding ELO, there are a couple that lean SHSU while the other 4 lean KSU. Essentially a pick’em.

[Professor Chaos]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.33 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team................. Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.43 (1) James Madison...... 77.4% 49.6% 23.4%
65.61 Weber State............... 22.6%.. 6.9%.. 1.9%

71.64 (5) South Dakota State 93.7% 43.1% 18.2%
53.18 New Hampshire............ 6.3%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%


61.84 Kennesaw State.......... 51.1%.. 5.1%.. 1.5%
59.13 (6) Sam Houston State 48.9%.. 6.7%.. 0.9%

57.49 (7) Wofford................. 5.8%.. 2.4%.. 0.3%
76.48 (2) North Dakota State 94.2% 85.7% 53.7%
Kind of weird that SHSU is a home dog in the quarters but has a better chance to make it to Frisco if they win than KSU would???

[BattleBorn]

Kind of weird that SHSU is a home dog in the quarters but has a better chance to make it to Frisco if they win than KSU would???

That is because of their crazy southern speed.

[bisonaudit]

Kind of weird that SHSU is a home dog in the quarters but has a better chance to make it to Frisco if they win than KSU would???

I’ll have to look at that. Could have transposed the numbers. SHSU would be home vs. Wofford but that's such a long shot I don’t think it would move the chances that much...

[SoCalBison]

By shellacking Wofford, Bison move up 5 spots in Sagarin to #36 this week. Sam Houston is up 8 spots to #104. Bison are favored by 19.43 points next Friday. On the other side of the bracket, it's a virtual even match: JMU falls one spot to #55 and SDSU holds steady at #56. Without calculating home field advantage, there's only 0.31 separating the rating of the Dukes and the Bunnies.

[90 BISON]

By shellacking Wofford, Bison move up 5 spots in Sagarin to #36 this week. Sam Houston is up 8 spots to #104. Bison are favored by 19.43 points next Friday. On the other side of the bracket, it's a virtual even match: JMU falls one spot to #55 and SDSU holds steady at #56. Without calculating home field advantage, there's only 0.31 separating the rating of the Dukes and the Bunnies.

I think JMU winning this game actually helps our title chances.

[MNLonghorn10]

Ah...i don't remember the last time ndsu was down in the 50s

[bisonaudit]

Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.34 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team................. Semi.... Final
73.09 (1) James Madison...... 57.8% 23.7%
72.78 (5) South Dakota State 42.2% 17.0%

60.27 (6) Sam Houston State. 7.6%.. 1.3%
77.36 (2) North Dakota State 92.4% 58.0%

[TateMosersneighbor]

This is the best thread on Bisonville.

[90 BISON]

I thought this thread was about Sagarin rankings. How wrong I have been proven...

[gumby013]

Sagarin updated overnight. Up to #34. JMU at #46.

[gizmo]

Sagarin updated overnight. Up to #34. JMU at #46.

Is there a trophy, or ribbon, for being #36 in a league we don’t play in?

[SoCalBison]

Is there a trophy, or ribbon, for being #34 in a league we don’t play in?

Yeah, it's a bit like fantasy football--but that makes it only slightly less enjoyable than the real thing. (Updated your ranking)

[BisonTeacher]

Is there a trophy, or ribbon, for being #36

Cactus Bowl? Las Vegas Bowl? Quick Lane Bowl?

[THEsocalledfan]

5dimes has NDSU -3, about right in line with new Sagarin.

[TransAmBison]

What are the new Sagarin percentages?

[bisonaudit]

What are the new Sagarin percentages?

NDSU 57.8%

With the traditional inputs. Somewhat less then that with some data I saw last week suggesting that the standard deviation for college football is somewhat north of 15 rather than the somewhat south of 14.

Curious to see what the other Sagarin models say if/when he updates them.

[TransAmBison]

NDSU 57.8%

With the traditional inputs. Somewhat less then that with some data I saw last week suggesting that the standard deviation for college football is somewhat north of 15 rather than the somewhat south of 14.

Curious to see what the other Sagarin models say if/when he updates them.Thanks!!!!

[NDSUBowler]

5dimes has NDSU -3, about right in line with new Sagarin.

I feel like this season, 5dimes has switched their linemaking process to open lines based on Sagarin for FCS games. Seems like nearly every week their line opened right in line with Sag, while in the past, there have been some insanely wild lines.

[THEsocalledfan]

I feel like this season, 5dimes has switched their linemaking process to open lines based on Sagarin for FCS games. Seems like nearly every week their line opened right in line with Sag, while in the past, there have been some insanely wild lines.

It has been fun this playoff run to see some of the lines moving substantially; must actually be getting some action on those games.

[Professor Chaos]

NDSU 57.8%

With the traditional inputs. Somewhat less then that with some data I saw last week suggesting that the standard deviation for college football is somewhat north of 15 rather than the somewhat south of 14.

Curious to see what the other Sagarin models say if/when he updates them.
Kinda shows how charmin soft NDSU's side of the bracket was that their percentage to win the title is only roughly +4% of what it was when the playoffs started.

[bisonaudit]

Kinda shows how charmin soft NDSU's side of the bracket was that their percentage to win the title is only roughly +4% of what it was when the playoffs started.

No argument here.

[THEsocalledfan]

Kinda shows how charmin soft NDSU's side of the bracket was that their percentage to win the title is only roughly +4% of what it was when the playoffs started.

Payback for the bracket of death in 2015.

[Professor Chaos]

Payback for the bracket of death in 2015.
Or last year.

I won't complain or apologize for NDSU's draw this year. :biggrin:

[89MTBISON]

Bracket side wouldn't have mattered, since SDSU our offense especially has been terrific. Messingham really got things fine tuned as far as this teams' identity. I also think Kuhnert gave the Oline a tounge lashing, that guy is just badass. Who pops their elbow back into place in the middle of a game?

[thebootfitter]

Is there a trophy, or ribbon, for being #36 in a league we don’t play in?
You mean for being #36 in NCAA Division I football? I'm pretty sure we DO play in that "league." But If we were classified as FBS instead of FCS, yeah, I'm sure we'd get a bowl game and all the goodies that come with that.

[bisonaudit]

If all you’re paying attention to with the Sagarin ratings is the ordinal ranking, you're doing it wrong.

[NDSU1980]

If all you’re paying attention to with the Sagarin ratings is the ordinal ranking, you're doing it wrong.

Of course you still need to add 2.61 to NDSU for homefield advantage. :)

[SoCalBison]

A week's worth of bowl games has no effect on Bison or JMU. Bison remain at #34 and JMU is #46. Bison favored by 2.65 points (not considering home field advantage of Frisco for the Bison).

[SoCalBison]

Another week of bowl games, and the Bison move up one slot to #33, JMU moves up three to #43. Bison favored by 2.67 on neutral field.

[NDSU1980]

Another week of bowl games, and the Bison move up one slot to #33, JMU moves up three to #43. Bison favored by 2.67 on neutral field.

So we can add another 3 points since it's our field at Frisco?

[NovaBison]

Final Sagarin is out... NDSU at 31.

What I did find interesting was where the MVFC finished... 13, ahead of all the G5 except AAC and the 1A independents. Heck, even the Big Sky finished higher than the Sunbelt. You know how AAC has been marketing themselves as the P6? MVFC should start calling themselves the P7.

[MNLonghorn10]

Is 31 the second highest finish after 13?

[NovaBison]

Is 31 the second highest finish after 13?

2011 = 37
2012 = 35
2013 = 17
2014 = 32
2015 = 36
2017 = 31

Correct... second, behind 2013. Last year JMU was 33 and we were 44.

[THEsocalledfan]

2011 = 37
2012 = 35
2013 = 17
2014 = 32
2015 = 36
2017 = 31

Correct... second, behind 2013. Last year JMU was 33 and we were 44.

Feels about right to me for how good they were this year. No AP votes for NDSU this year in the final poll. (Still think they should have gotten in top 25 in 2013.)

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

2011 = 37
2012 = 35
2013 = 17
2014 = 32
2015 = 36
2017 = 31

Correct... second, behind 2013. Last year JMU was 33 and we were 44.

That '13 team was just sick. One of the all time best.

[NovaBison]

Feels about right to me for how good they were this year. No AP votes for NDSU this year in the final poll. (Still think they should have gotten in top 25 in 2013.)

I am thinking the lack of an FBS win, right or wrong, affects the ability to even be thought about for the AP Poll -- an FBS win helps those voters justify voting for NDSU.

[PlrbrBison]

I am thinking the lack of an FBS win, right or wrong, affects the ability to even be thought about for the AP Poll -- an FBS win helps those voters justify voting for NDSU.

Where did JMU finish?

[NDSU1980]

Where did JMU finish?

At 44 (10 char)

[noryan34]

Where did JMU finish?

If you mean in the sagarin rankings were NDSU is 31 then JMU finished 44

[KNOW IT ALL]

I am thinking the lack of an FBS win, right or wrong, affects the ability to even be thought about for the AP Poll -- an FBS win helps those voters justify voting for NDSU.

And rightfully so! Alabama cant rank themselves in the NFL:biggrin:

[THEsocalledfan]

If you mean in the sagarin rankings were NDSU is 31 then JMU finished 44

Yep, I can confirm the Sargarin rankings have NDSU at 31 and JMU and 44. NDSU finished higher in the Sagarin ranking than JMU. (Man, I love this game....did you know that Rob Port got a DUI?)

[stevdock]

Is 31 the second highest finish after 13?

Anybody want to make a guess on where we finish this year if the SDSU debacle doesn't happen and everything else is the same??

[MNLonghorn10]

Anybody want to make a guess on where we finish this year if the SDSU debacle doesn't happen and everything else is the same??

i think we only dropped like 2 spots. so probably upper 20s?

[westnodak93bison]

Yep, I can confirm the Sargarin rankings have NDSU at 31 and JMU and 44. NDSU finished higher in the Sagarin ranking than JMU. (Man, I love this game....did you know that Rob Port got a DUI?)Tell us how many DUI's have you gotten away with?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[Buffalo.Rider]

In Sagarin, the top 7 FCS schools have one CAA school (JMU at 44), one Big Sky school (Weber State at 80) and 5 FCS schools (NDSU at 31, SDSU at 63, UNI at 78, WIU at 82, and USD at 90)

FROM Highest on down
NDSU
JMU
SDSU
UNI
WS
WIU
USD

Granted this is one 'view', but pretty significant - the Missouri Valley Conference does really well per Sagarin. Except for SDSU's hiccup against JMU, the Valley did well.

[unbison]

No valley gets the nod in sagarian for o e reason and one reason only

DA BISON
The rest of conference is getting a huge bump by us as evidenced by SDSU at jmu
Usd vs Sam Houston
Westernvs Weber

[bisonaudit]

No valley gets the nod in sagarian for o e reason and one reason only

DA BISON
The rest of conference is getting a huge bump by us as evidenced by SDSU at jmu
Usd vs Sam Houston
Westernvs Weber

Yep, that’s why 5 of the next 7 are CAA teams.


MVFC teams are rated where they are because they are good.

[Professor Chaos]

The starting ratings for 2018 are up on Sagarin's site: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

NDSU starts at #35 for the rating and #34 for the predictor. I'm not sure if that's the highest they've ever started a season at but it wouldn't surprise me if it is. 5 MFVC teams in the top 6 and 8 in the top 25 (FCS only).

EDIT: And somehow they just moved down to #36 for both.... apparently the data entry is still happening???

[THEsocalledfan]

The starting ratings for 2018 are up on Sagarin's site: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

NDSU starts at #35 for the rating and #34 for the predictor. I'm not sure if that's the highest they've ever started a season at but it wouldn't surprise me if it is. 5 MFVC teams in the top 6 and 8 in the top 25 (FCS only).

SDSU way over valued. Iowa St. way undervalued. (yes, I know it is math so no errors; just observations)

[Bison 4 Life]

Can't wait to see JMU talk about disrespect.