Week 9 Polls

[NDSUstudent]

AGS
1 Eastern Washington Eagles 1962 44 1
2 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1893 19 2
3 North Dakota State Bison 1880 11 3
4 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1765 4 4
5 The Citadel Bulldogs 1696 5
6 James Madison Dukes 1646 3 6
7 Richmond Spiders 1564 8
8 Chattanooga Mocs 1417 9
9 Charleston Southern Buccaneers 1306 10
10 Cal Poly Mustangs 1203 11
11 Central Arkansas Bears 1118 12
12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1084 7
13 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 1026 13
14 Youngstown State Penguins 978 14
15 Villanova Wildcats 889 17
16 Western Illinois Leathernecks 873 18
17 Samford Bulldogs 867 15T
18 North Carolina A&T Aggies 561 19
19 Montana Grizzlies 552 15T
20 Lehigh Mountain Hawks 502 21
21 New Hampshire Wildcats 472 23
22 Maine Black Bears 228 29
23 Harvard Crimson 168 26
24 Grambling State Tigers 143 27
25 Stony Brook Seawolves 105 20

ORV:
26 South Dakota Coyotes 104 22
27 Wofford Terriers 86 32
28 Albany Great Danes 56 30
29 Weber State Wildcats 53 24
30 Liberty Flames 47 35
31 North Carolina Central Eagles 24 34
32 Eastern Illinois Panthers 16 25
33 Northern Iowa Panthers 12 33
34 Saint Francis Red Flash 11 39T
35 San Diego Toreros 7 39T
36T Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 3 37
36T Pennsylvania Quakers 3 NR
36T Sacred Heart Pioneers 3 31
39T Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1 NR
39T Tennessee State Tigers 1 28



Most Significant Win: Eastern Washington Eagles
Most Significant Loss: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

[NDSUstudent]

Stats Poll
1 Sam Houston State (8-0) 3467 (102) 1
2 Jacksonville State (7-1) 3346 (15) 2
3 Eastern Washington (7-1) 3253 (18) 3
4 North Dakota State (7-1) 3090 (4) 4
5 Citadel (8-0) 2961 (3) 5
6 Richmond (7-1) 2823 6
7 James Madison (7-1) 2762 8
8 Charleston Southern (5-2) 2484 9
9 Chattanooga (8-1) 2464 10
10 Villanova (6-2) 1963 11
11 North Carolina A&T (7-1) 1788 12
12 Western Illinois (6-2) 1786 13
13 South Dakota State (5-3) 1783 7
14 Cal Poly (6-2) 1642 14
15 Youngstown State (6-2) 1603 15
16 North Dakota (7-2) 1526 17
17 Central Arkansas (7-1) 1384 19
18 Coastal Carolina (6-2) 1233 18
19 Montana (5-3) 891 16
20 Samford (6-2) 885 20
21 Grambling State (5-1) 815 21
22 New Hampshire (6-3) 565 NR
23 Harvard (6-1) 476 24
24 Lehigh (7-2) 467 NR
25 Stony Brook (5-3) 124 22

Others: Maine (78) , Eastern Illinois (68) , Albany (49) , South Dakota (48) , Weber State (42) , North Carolina Central (42) , Wofford (33) , San Diego (31) , UNI (29) , Saint Francis U (28) , Liberty (24) , Penn (20) , Sacred Heart (20) , UT Martin (17) , Northern Arizona (12) , Tennessee State (9) , Illinois State (7) , Fordham (4) , McNeese (2) , Nicholls (2) , Kennesaw State (2) , Southern Utah (1) , Southern University (1)

[NDSUstudent]

Coaches Poll
1 Sam Houston State (22) 644 8-0 1
2 Jacksonville State (2) 621 7-1 2
3 Eastern Washington (1) 593 7-1 3
4 North Dakota State (1) 575 7-1 4
5 James Madison 540 7-1 5
6 Richmond 516 7-1 7
7 The Citadel 504 8-0 6
8 Chattanooga 464 8-1 8
9 Charleston Southern 442 5-2 9
10 North Carolina A&T 398 7-1 11
11 North Dakota 374 7-2 12
12 Villanova 336 6-2 13
13 Youngstown State 326 6-2 14
14 Western Illinois 308 6-2 15
15 South Dakota State 279 5-3 10
16 Cal Poly 272 6-2 17
17 Central Arkansas 268 7-1 18
18 Samford 181 6-2 19
19 Grambling State 162 5-3 21
20 Montana 151 5-3 16
21 Lehigh 125 7-2 24
22 Harvard 100 6-1 23
23 New Hampshire 90 6-3 NR
24 Eastern Illinois 49 5-4 22
25 Stony Brook 24 5-3 20

Others receiving votes: Liberty (23), North Carolina Central (14), South Dakota (12), Northern Arizona (8), Albany (7), San Diego (7), Maine (6), Wofford (6), Tennessee State (4), Montana State (3), Northern Iowa (3), Penn (3), Kennesaw State (2), Weber State (2), Southeastern Louisiana (2), UT Martin (2), Illinois State (1), Sacred Heart (1), Southern University (1) and Southern Utah (1).

[NDSUstudent]

Thanks to moronic slot voting in the media and coaches poll I doubt we'll get back to #1 or #2 even if we win out.

We actually lost first place votes and points in the media poll, which just furthers to show how awful that poll is.

[El_Chapo]

Look at these garbage programs in the top 25. Outside the top 8 maybe 10 it's a crapshow of epic proportions!!

[EC8CH]

Remind me again. What are the #1 team's top three wins?

[CAS4127]

Remind me again. What are the #1 team's top three wins?

Like some here like to say when people question our FBS wins: "We can only play who is on our schedule." Same for SHSU. Also, they typically do fairly well in POs, and they are doing what a top team should against their opponents.


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[Green1]

Remind me again, who did Eastern Washington lose to??

[tjbison]

Remind me again, who did Eastern Washington lose to??

I don't think we would beat them again....just my thoughts

[NDSUstudent]

Like some here like to say when people question our FBS wins: "We can only play who is on our schedule." Same for SHSU. Also, they typically do fairly well in POs, and they are doing what a top team should against their opponents.


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They've done alright in the playoffs, last year though they caught some big breaks and had a string of weak teams even in the playoffs. Of course that can happen when the committee overloads the bracket.

SHSU has played nobody, we would put 40-60 on every team they've played. It is truly the weakest schedule I've ever seen a #1 ranked team play. JSU's schedule isn't anything to write home about either but at least they beat CCU and gave LSU a decent game.

[CAS4127]

They've done alright in the playoffs, last year though they caught some big breaks and had a string of weak teams even in the playoffs. Of course that can happen when the committee overloads the bracket.

SHSU has played nobody, we would put 40-60 on every team they've played. It is truly the weakest schedule I've ever seen a #1 ranked team play. JSU's schedule isn't anything to write home about either but at least they beat CCU and gave LSU a decent game.

40-60???!! No we wouldn't. Lol!


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[NDSUstudent]

40-60???!! No we wouldn't. Lol!


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40 by halftime in most games, the teams they've played are that awful. UNI and their QB that can't complete a forward pass would roll through their slate of cupcakes.

Their SOS is on par with the Pioneer League, which is a non-scholarship league.

[Green1]

I don't think we would beat them again....just my thoughts


In a direct, head-to-head game, EWU lost. This is a fact. It is not opinion or supposition.

As a voter, how could you disregard this fact and put more credence into a flight of fancy? Until they prove otherwise, EWU should be ranked below NDSU.

[CAS4127]

40 by halftime in most games, the teams they've played are that awful. UNI and their QB that can't complete a forward pass would roll through their slate of cupcakes.

Their SOS is on par with the Pioneer League, which is a non-scholarship league.

Yet people here say they are BSC champs because they consistently beat BSC in POs.

Jussayin!


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[Bison 4 Life]

In a direct, head-to-head game, EWU lost. This is a fact. It is not opinion or supposition.

As a voter, how could you disregard this fact and put more credence into a flight of fancy? Until they prove otherwise, EWU should be ranked below NDSU.

All of this.

[tjbison]

In a direct, head-to-head game, EWU lost. This is a fact. It is not opinion or supposition.

As a voter, how could you disregard this fact and put more credence into a flight of fancy? Until they prove otherwise, EWU should be ranked below NDSU.
not disagreeing I'm only saying they are playing better and winning by larger margins, that's what some voters base it on

and I stand by my opinion that the way we are currently playing is not normal NDSU second half of season form. now that doesn't mean we won't find another gear and motivation in the playoffs l.

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[Bison03]

A 10-1 Bison team will be the #1 team in the bracket, that's all that matters. Keep winning and we are in perfect shape.

[NDSUstudent]

Yet people here say they are BSC champs because they consistently beat BSC in POs.

Jussayin!


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Beating the BSC in the playoffs isn't that hard, unless you are SDSU.

[Green1]

[QUOTE=tjbison;1168167]not disagreeing I'm only saying they are playing better and winning by larger margins, that's what some voters base it on

and I stand by my opinion that the way we are currently playing is not normal NDSU second half of season form. now that doesn't mean we won't find another gear and motivation in the playoffs l.

Sent from my SM

I wasn't trying to pick on you specifically but I was trying to point out there needs to be a difference between a gut feeling about a team versus direct evidence. These poll voters seem to disregard fact (only weeks removed) and place their votes based on something else.

[tjbison]

A 10-1 Bison team should be the #1 team in the bracket, that's all that matters. Keep winning and we are in perfect shape.


Fixed your post, don't trust the committee on anything

[CAS4127]

Beating the BSC in the playoffs isn't that hard, unless you are SDSU.

The point is that people HERE say every year how soft their schedule is and hence they are not that good, but when they get in POs they win pretty consistently over a lot of ranked teams.

Sorry if you can't follow.


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[NDSUstudent]

The point is that people HERE say every year how soft their schedule is and hence they are not that good, but when they get in POs they win pretty consistently. Sorry if you can't follow.


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My point is that they beat SUU, McNeese, Colgate and then got obliterated 62-10 by the one decent team they played in the playoffs. Their playoff run didn't really prove anything other then that they can beat a bunch of mediocre teams.

[CAS4127]

My point is that they beat SUU, McNeese, Colgate and then got obliterated 62-10 by the one decent team they played in the playoffs. Their playoff run didn't really prove anything other then that they can beat a bunch of mediocre teams.

We played them twice in a row in the Natty, and once in the semi's.
Pretty sure they beat a lot more teams in the POs the last 5 years, or did they get byes to that level of POs. SMFH!


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[NDSUstudent]

We played them twice in a row in the Natty, and once in the semi's.
Pretty sure they beat a lot more teams in the POs the last 5 years, or did they get byes to that level of POs. SMFH!


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Different coaching staff and system for some of those years. Their conference was also stronger back then, it was before they added the sisters of the poor to their league.

They lost 62-10 to JSU in the playoffs, elite teams don't lose 62-10. We hammered them the year before that as well, basically just shoved the ball down their throat. Sorry that I demand one win against an elite team before I crown them worthy of being considered the best team in the FCS.

I think they are a hog waiting to get slaughtered once again this year.

[CAS4127]

Different coaching staff and system for some of those years. Their conference was also stronger back then, it was before they added the sisters of the poor to their league.

They lost 62-10 to JSU in the playoffs, elite teams don't lose 62-10. We hammered them the year before that as well, basically just shoved the ball down their throat. Sorry that I demand one win against an elite team before I crown them worthy of being considered the best team in the FCS.

I think they are a hog waiting to get slaughtered once again this year.



Yet they still won their conference, but with tighter games. Now they are winning with a lot of blowouts like they should. And their current coach won a Natty at Delaware.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161101/0eb33e97a14ece3312930659d94f2ca0.png

I'll hang up and listen now.






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[MNLonghorn10]

The point is that people HERE say every year how soft their schedule is and hence they are not that good, but when they get in POs they win pretty consistently over a lot of ranked teams.

Sorry if you can't follow.


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People say BSC champs because it's funny how they keep going to cold elements and winning.

Here's a blind resume from AGS. It's formulas from respected computer rankings. I'll let you figure out who's who http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161101/ea77afbac055e08217b34f5652aca9ad.jpg

[NDSUstudent]

CAS you do realize I think their conference is a complete joke, so I don't really give any value at all for them winning it and winning games...whether that be by 1 point every week or a 100.

Call me when they beat an elite team. Its been a while and now people are slobbering all over them for beating the sisters of the poor every week.

[CAS4127]

People say BSC champs because it's funny how they keep going to cold elements and winning.

Here's a blind resume from AGS. It's formulas from respected computer rankings. I'll let you figure out who's who http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161101/ea77afbac055e08217b34f5652aca9ad.jpg

I'm not suggesting they have a difficult schedule, I'm saying the better proof of how good they are is their record versus other PO teams over the last 5 years. I'll take my position over anything you and NStudent have produced , and anyone with common sense would too. I'm not saying they are #1, but certainly top 4. You guys can think/believe what you want, but they have, as I mentioned, consistently won in the POs over teams with more difficult SOS, and 3 of their 5 PO losses over the last 5 years have come from ..... wait for it .... NDSU.

Think what you want.

Peace out!


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[NDSUstudent]

Longhorn's Massey ratings are exhibit A and here is exhibit B..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqPZGNr70nk

[tjbison]

Longhorn's Massey ratings are exhibit A and here is exhibit B..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqPZGNr70nk

And the other side of the bracket was a bloodbath....

[bisonaudit]

Sam Houston is not one of the 4 best teams in FCS right now. They're more like 10th. They might not even be the best of the two good teams in their conference.

[NDSUstudent]

And the other side of the bracket was a bloodbath....

It was probably the most lopsided bracket ever. It was so lopsided that rules needed to be changed as how to the bracket is setup.

I don't think Sam is a bad team, I think they are good but I really question them being a top 5 team.

[CAS4127]

And the other side of the bracket was a bloodbath....

On paper to start with, but the only tough game we ended up having was UNI. Short memories here, because when it was all said and done, most HERE felt our bracket turned into the better one for us.


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[Professor Chaos]

On paper to start with, but the only tough game we ended up having was UNI. Short memories here, because when it was all said and done, most HERE felt our bracket turned into the better one for us.


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I don't know about that. If people were saying that they'd be wrong IMO. The bottom side of the bracket was good only in the fact that it allowed NDSU to host a semifinal whereas they'd have had to travel to JSU for the semis if they were the #4 seed on the top side of the bracket. But the bottom side of the bracket had 4 of the top 5 teams in it to end the season last year (NDSU, Richmond, UNI, and ISUr).

Back to the case of SHSU though, I think it's definitely fair to slot them in around #4 right now. I don't think they deserve to be in the #1 spot as STATS and Coach's poll voters have put them at but I also don't think they should be put all the way down to the 8-10 range as some have said because of the points you brought up. They've did exactly what a championship caliber team should do to the cupcakes they've played.

It's nice that this is the first year that the selection committee is releasing their top 10 before the playoffs start. I can't recall any year since this Bison run started that there was so much contention around how the top 4 shake out by this time of the year. For the most part over the last 5 years there's been a pretty clear top 1 or 2 teams at this point in the year. This year there's probably 5 or 6 teams that have a conceivable claim to be #1 right now. Thursday afternoon is going to be very interesting. I predict a lot of electronic pounding of fists on message boards for the teams that get slotted into those #4 and #5 spots.

[EC8CH]

On paper to start with, but the only tough game we ended up having was UNI. Short memories here, because when it was all said and done, most HERE felt our bracket turned into the better one for us.


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Last year would have been another all MVFC title game if the bracket was more appropriately balanced.

[CAS4127]

Which MVFC team would have made it?


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[MNLonghorn10]

I'm not suggesting they have a difficult schedule, I'm saying the better proof of how good they are is their record versus other PO teams over the last 5 years. I'll take my position over anything you and NStudent have produced , and anyone with common sense would too. I'm not saying they are #1, but certainly top 4. You guys can think/believe what you want, but they have, as I mentioned, consistently won in the POs over teams with more difficult SOS, and 3 of their 5 PO losses over the last 5 years have come from ..... wait for it .... NDSU.

Think what you want.

Peace out!


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the highest they should be is 4th and that depends who you ask.

Its when they are getting first and second place over teams that makes me scratch my head

[MNLonghorn10]

Which MVFC team would have made it?


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Im a firm believer that Ill St was looking ahead to hosting NDSU.

[CAS4127]

Im a firm believer that Ill St was looking ahead to hosting NDSU.

That doesn't matter--they got beat by Richmond, and would they have beat JSU on in the other side? IDTS.


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[MNLonghorn10]

That doesn't matter--they got beat by Richmond, and would they have beat JSU on in the other side? IDTS.


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You just asked what MVFC team would've made it through the top bracket.

[CAS4127]

I was commenting/asking about what other MVFC team would have made Natty on other side of bracket.


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[MNLonghorn10]

yea...iSUR was IMO the second best team. they were looking ahead to hosting ndsu so richmond caught them with their pants down. they wouldve beat jsu

[CAS4127]

yea...iSUR was IMO the second best team. they were looking ahead to hosting ndsu so richmond caught them with their pants down. they wouldve beat jsu

So you know they wouldn't have been looking ahead to NDSU in semi's on other side of bracket given the opportunity for a Natty re-match?

Argument/position unsound.


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[BisonTru]

Central Arkansas is playing some good football and has by far the best defense in that conference. I wouldn't be surprised at all to watch that high powered air raid SHSU offense get shut down the last week of the season. With that I don't see SHSU winning the conference, or being seeded.

[NDSUstudent]

I would have liked to have seen what UNI would have done on the other side of the bracket.

[EC8CH]

I was commenting/asking about what other MVFC team would have made Natty on other side of bracket.


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I think UNI or like was already stated Illinois State would have ran through the other side of the bracket. Agreed Redbirds got caught looking ahead.

[ZHerd]

Last year's Redbirds were overrated and would have lost either side of the bracket. UNI would (or at least should have...UNI after all) have rolled the other side of the bracket. The NDSU/UNI game was the best football played in the playoffs last year.

[Christopher Moen]

40 by halftime in most games, the teams they've played are that awful. UNI and their QB that can't complete a forward pass would roll through their slate of cupcakes.

Their SOS is on par with the Pioneer League, which is a non-scholarship league.

I believe he was referring to the fact that NDSU prefers to hold on the ball and slow down the game so much that scoring more than 35 isn't their M.O. This strategy also helps keep the opponents from getting over 20.

[MNLonghorn10]

So you know they wouldn't have been looking ahead to NDSU in semi's on other side of bracket given the opportunity for a Natty re-match?

Argument/position unsound.


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A redemption game at home the following week is much more easier to overlook than a 3 week layoff game at a neutral site. It would've been the biggest game in school history and they blew the chance to host it.,.then ndsu goes onto beat Richmond by 4 tds

[NDSUstudent]

I believe he was referring to the fact that NDSU prefers to hold on the ball and slow down the game so much that scoring more than 35 isn't their M.O. This strategy also helps keep the opponents from getting over 20.

We would run over all the worthless garbage that SHSU has played. Klieman could name his score.

You don't need to worry about strategy when playing against garbage. See last year's MSU game...55-0 or Incarnate Word 58-0...We don't play a lot of the trash that SHSU plays but when we do...we drub them.

[Christopher Moen]

We would run over all the worthless garbage that SHSU has played. Klieman could name his score.

You don't need to worry about strategy when playing against garbage. See last year's MSU game...55-0 or Incarnate Word 58-0...We don't play a lot of the trash that SHSU plays but when we do...we drub them.

I have no doubt NDSU could run up the score, but there seems to be a concerted effort to stop scoring after a certain amount (35 is my guess). Yes, they put up 55 on MSU last year, but that was through three quarters. They only big point game last year where they continued scoring was against playoff-bound, WIU (59-7), with the last TD drive basically consisting of feeding the ball to Darius Anderson, Bruce Anderson and Lance Dunn.

I'm sure in these games, if the coaches wanted 70 points, they would have had it, but no need to beat a beaten team more. It's a classy outlook and also prevents unnecessary injuries to your starters.

[HerdBot]

The polls are ridiculous. Nobody can even come close to matching our resume. Iowa Hawkeyes. That in itself is one of the biggest wins in FCS History. Top 15 wins (by current polls) over Top 3 Eastern Washington, #9 Charleston Southern, and #12 Western Illinois on the road. We blew out Illinois State when they were ranked. We handily beat Misery State which was our only easy game and beat UNI on the road.

And that's not even taking into account we have won 5 National Championships in a row

I guess these pollsters are either A) hoping to see our run end B) Moronic C) Are wowed by inflated offensive stats or D) Got NDSU and UND mixed up

[TransAmBison]

UNI would have destroyed the other side of the bracket. Ill St would not have survived the other side either. They were too inconsistent.

[wagsabison]

I have no doubt NDSU could run up the score, but there seems to be a concerted effort to stop scoring after a certain amount (35 is my guess). Yes, they put up 55 on MSU last year, but that was through three quarters. They only big point game last year where they continued scoring was against playoff-bound, WIU (59-7), with the last TD drive basically consisting of feeding the ball to Darius Anderson, Bruce Anderson and Lance Dunn.

I'm sure in these games, if the coaches wanted 70 points, they would have had it, but no need to beat a beaten team more. It's a classy outlook and also prevents unnecessary injuries to your starters.

That's what the UND game felt like last year. The game was well in hand and it seemed like we could have scored more.

[Mayville Bison]

I wasn't trying to pick on you specifically but I was trying to point out there needs to be a difference between a gut feeling about a team versus direct evidence. These poll voters seem to disregard fact (only weeks removed) and place their votes based on something else.

On my AGS poll, I have EWU #1 and NDSU #2. If they could come into Fargo, arguably the toughest place to play in FCS football, and go to overtime (they could have won it in regulation remember), who's to say they wouldn't win on a neutral field or at their place? The rest of my top five is #3 Citadel, #4 JSU, and #5 SHSU.

[thundarsdaddy]

Am I the only one who looks at these polls and thinks..."thank god UNI isnt on the list anymore and can't make the playoffs"?

One thorn-in-the-side of the Bison eliminated!!!

[Vet70]

On my AGS poll, I have EWU #1 and NDSU #2. If they could come into Fargo, arguably the toughest place to play in FCS football, and go to overtime (they could have won it in regulation remember), who's to say they wouldn't win on a neutral field or at their place? The rest of my top five is #3 Citadel, #4 JSU, and #5 SHSU.

Hard for me to rank EWU ahead of NDSU. They may well win if there is a rematch, but they did lose head to head and have a weaker SOS, 55 vs. 77.

[GRAFTONBISON]

Am I the only one who looks at these polls and thinks..."thank god UNI isnt on the list anymore and can't make the playoffs"?

One thorn-in-the-side of the Bison eliminated!!!

If UNI wins out, which would include a win over SDSU, I believe they will and should be in at 6-5.

[Bison Loaf]

On my AGS poll, I have EWU #1 and NDSU #2. If they could come into Fargo, arguably the toughest place to play in FCS football, and go to overtime (they could have won it in regulation remember), who's to say they wouldn't win on a neutral field or at their place? The rest of my top five is #3 Citadel, #4 JSU, and #5 SHSU.

Then why wouldn't Chuck South be ahead of the Bison in your poll, too? Just askin'. :)

[THEsocalledfan]

Let's all hope the committee poll on Thursday has more sense than all this horse shit. Only poll I even pay attention to at this point is not a poll; Sagarin.

[Mayville Bison]

Then why wouldn't Chuck South be ahead of the Bison in your poll, too? Just askin'. :)

Because they haven't had the opportunity to prove it (outside of the CCU game) since the NDSU game. What happened in week 0 (or week 2 for EWU) has some meaning when I do my poll, but what they have continued to do since then is much more important. The NDSU game is why I have them #8. I by no means discredit the results and realize NDSU is why there is a loss on both of their schedules.

[Mayville Bison]

Let's all hope the committee poll on Thursday has more sense than all this horse shit. Only poll I even pay attention to at this point is not a poll; Sagarin.

UNI #3 #jussayin

[semobison]

The polls are ridiculous. Nobody can even come close to matching our resume. Iowa Hawkeyes. That in itself is one of the biggest wins in FCS History. Top 15 wins (by current polls) over Top 3 Eastern Washington, #9 Charleston Southern, and #12 Western Illinois on the road. We blew out Illinois State when they were ranked. We handily beat Misery State which was our only easy game and beat UNI on the road.

And that's not even taking into account we have won 5 National Championships in a row

I guess these pollsters are either A) hoping to see our run end B) Moronic C) Are wowed by inflated offensive stats or D) Got NDSU and UND mixed up

At this point in time EWU's FBS win over Wash St.trumps our Iowa win! I think voters are taking into consideration how the Bison are winning ...by the hair of their chinny chin chin....If we run the table and don't get a top 2 seed well, then we have something to complain about.

[THEsocalledfan]

UNI #3 #jussayin

Which is EXACTLY why I trust it. That is where they belong and suspect they will fall a little more if they continue to struggle. But one must look at their schedule!

[Mayville Bison]

Which is EXACTLY why I trust it. That is where they belong and suspect they will fall a little more if they continue to struggle. But one must look at their schedule!

Don't get me wrong TSCF as one of my initial starting points for my poll is Sagarin, but you can't completely go by a computer that has a 3-5 team at #3 - especially a 3-5 team that's only wins are against a 1-win FBS team, Southern Illinois, and Missouri St.

I understand the basics of how Sagarin works and why UNI is that high, but that's similar to how you can beat the RPI rankings artificially.

[Bison03]

Sam Houston probably isn't the #1 team based on who they have played. They will get hurt come selection Sunday for their weak conference but I still believe they are in the top 5. They are a pretty good playoff team when you see their record the past 5 years. Didn't realize it was actually that good. Without NDSU's run, they might have 3 championships the past 5 years. I fully expect them to make another deep run this year.

[THEsocalledfan]

Don't get me wrong TSCF as one of my initial starting points for my poll is Sagarin, but you can't completely go by a computer that has a 3-5 team at #3 - especially a 3-5 team that's only wins are against a 1-win FBS team, Southern Illinois, and Missouri St.

I understand the basics of how Sagarin works and why UNI is that high, but that's similar to how you can beat the RPI rankings artificially.

Really no argument to that.

[SDbison]

No justification for EWU being ranked above NDSU.

[EC8CH]

Sam Houston probably isn't the #1 team based on who they have played. They will get hurt come selection Sunday for their weak conference but I still believe they are in the top 5. They are a pretty good playoff team when you see their record the past 5 years. Didn't realize it was actually that good. Without NDSU's run, they might have 3 championships the past 5 years. I fully expect them to make another deep run this year.

When considering Wins and Losses, Strength of Schedule, and margin of victory, I think Wins and Losses and Strength of Schedule should go hand in hand as the first consideration followed afterwards by margin of victory.

Teams need to win their games but in the very same breath teams with tough schedules need to be rewarded and teams that play cupcakes all season should only be allowed so far up regardless of their W/L record.

[THEsocalledfan]

No justification for EWU being ranked above NDSU.

Yepper. NDSU beats a better P5 school, beats EWU, and plays in a better conference. You can't make this stuff up.

[wagsabison]

Yepper. NDSU beats a better P5 school, beats EWU, and plays in a better conference. You can't make this stuff up.

Only argument you could make is that EWU lost to a better opponent... but that happens to be NDSU.

[bisonaudit]

Don't get me wrong TSCF as one of my initial starting points for my poll is Sagarin, but you can't completely go by a computer that has a 3-5 team at #3 - especially a 3-5 team that's only wins are against a 1-win FBS team, Southern Illinois, and Missouri St.

I understand the basics of how Sagarin works and why UNI is that high, but that's similar to how you can beat the RPI rankings artificially.


So, UNI has figured out how to game the Sagarin ratings buy strategically losing 4 games every season?

Seems like the more plausible answer could be that humans suffer from a series of biases that may lead us to less than optimal conclusions under certain conditions. Not the Sagarin or any computer rating system should be taken as gospel, but there their to help us correct for things that we're generally poor at recognizing for ourselves.

[Professor Chaos]

At this point in time EWU's FBS win over Wash St.trumps our Iowa win! I think voters are taking into consideration how the Bison are winning ...by the hair of their chinny chin chin....If we run the table and don't get a top 2 seed well, then we have something to complain about.
The problem with this logic is they dropped NDSU from #1 to #4 for losing by the hair of their chinny chin chins to SDSU. If these voters are going to discount the wins because they're close they should be discounting the loss as well. I don't think they should discount either.

The truth is these "major" national FCS polls just slot vote, especially by this time of year. No team moves up unless a team in front them loses and, by the same token, no team moves down unless they lose. However, the selection committee is different. At the end of the 2011 regular season, due to the week 11 loss to YSU, NDSU was #4 in both "major" polls behind Georgia Southern and UNI (who I'm sure, as you'd recall, the Bison had beaten less than a month before that) but they were seeded #2. GSU was #3 (and their fans sure didn't like it) and UNI was seeded #5 with Montana being #4.

Like I said before, Thursday afternoon when the selection committee releases their first top 10 ranking is going to be very interesting.

[FCS Nation]

In my vote in the Stats Poll I have kept y'all at #1 and I am not one of the 3 #1 votes for The Citadel. Believe me I would love to vote the Cadets #1 but I take my responsibility VERY seriously.

[NDSUstudent]

I do have some concerns with the committee...I remember a few years back they seeded UNH ahead of NDSU because they had lost earlier in the season. Yes, that was really the logic they used. That said we didn't beat UNH that year, even though we did crush them in the semifinals the season before. We should be seeded over EWU.

[Christopher Moen]

Only argument you could make is that EWU lost to a better opponent... but that happens to be NDSU.

It could also be argued that NDSU beat themselves a bit in the SDSU game.

[MrSnuffleupagus]

On my AGS poll, I have EWU #1 and NDSU #2. If they could come into Fargo, arguably the toughest place to play in FCS football, and go to overtime (they could have won it in regulation remember), who's to say they wouldn't win on a neutral field or at their place? The rest of my top five is #3 Citadel, #4 JSU, and #5 SHSU.

So you're rankings are based off of 'well, they maybe could beat us if they were home'?

I find it funny that people rank a team that NDSU beat, above NDSU.

[CAS4127]

So you're rankings are based off of 'well, they maybe could beat us if they were home'?

I find it funny that people rank a team that NDSU beat, above NDSU.

So we shouldn't be ranked above SDSU?

[Vet70]

So we shouldn't be ranked above SDSU?

Only if they were 7-1.

[MrSnuffleupagus]

So we shouldn't be ranked above SDSU?

Is SDSU 7-1? If they are, sure.


The fact of the matter is they are not. They are 5-3. EWU is 7-1, as are we. If you are comparing two teams that are both 7-1 and one of those team's loss is to the other team you're comparing; they are the better ranked team. This should be hard to understand...

[RonMexico]

On my AGS poll, I have EWU #1 and NDSU #2. If they could come into Fargo, arguably the toughest place to play in FCS football, and go to overtime (they could have won it in regulation remember), who's to say they wouldn't win on a neutral field or at their place? The rest of my top five is #3 Citadel, #4 JSU, and #5 SHSU.

And who is the say NDSU wouldn't win again? By Putting EWU #1, you aren't saying they could win on a neutral field you are saying they WOULD win on a neutral field.

[thebootfitter]

A 10-1 Bison team will be the #1 team in the bracket, that's all that matters. Keep winning and we are in perfect shape.


A 10-1 Bison team should be the #1 team in the bracket, that's all that matters. Keep winning and we are in perfect shape.

Fixed your post, don't trust the committee on anything
Yep, don't count on it, Bison03. Look at JSU last year. Look at SHSU in 2011.

[Mayville Bison]

Yepper. NDSU beats a better P5 school, beats EWU, and plays in a better conference. You can't make this stuff up.

If NDSU and EWU were playing their P5 games this weekend instead of 7 weeks ago, would you still say NDSU is playing the better P5 school? I've already said my piece about the NDSU/EWU game, and I get that is my opinion, so I won't force that on you. Better conference? Honestly not sure. I haven't looked up all the OOC games this year, but I'm pretty sure the Big Sky has the edge in head to heads. So if that's your criteria #1 for NDSU or EWU ranked higher, you'd have to use that here as well, wouldn't you? Top to bottom, yeah the MVFC is better. Take out EWU and NDSU, I'd probly lean BSC


So, UNI has figured out how to game the Sagarin ratings buy strategically losing 4 games every season?

Seems like the more plausible answer could be that humans suffer from a series of biases that may lead us to less than optimal conclusions under certain conditions. Not the Sagarin or any computer rating system should be taken as gospel, but there their to help us correct for things that we're generally poor at recognizing for ourselves.

You know damn well that's not what I said. I compared it to RPI as you can influence your ranking there without winning just as you can with Sagarin's ranking.

[Mayville Bison]

So you're rankings are based off of 'well, they maybe could beat us if they were home'?

I find it funny that people rank a team that NDSU beat, above NDSU.

I'm basing my rankings of both results and how teams are playing right now. I'm not going to move ISUr into my rankings based off beating a top ten team because I have to factor in the entire schedule. While remembering that NDSU did in fact beat EWU (on the road, in overtime, without their best player for half the game), the way both teams are playing right now, I'd have to give the edge to EWU on a neutral field. Their resume is just as good as ours (#3 SOS vs #1 SOS if I recall correctly), but they are doing it impressively instead of holding on at the end.

I find it funny that people are judging a seasons ranking by one game that happened almost 2 months ago.

[THEsocalledfan]

If NDSU and EWU were playing their P5 games this weekend instead of 7 weeks ago, would you still say NDSU is playing the better P5 school? I've already said my piece about the NDSU/EWU game, and I get that is my opinion, so I won't force that on you. Better conference? Honestly not sure. I haven't looked up all the OOC games this year, but I'm pretty sure the Big Sky has the edge in head to heads. So if that's your criteria #1 for NDSU or EWU ranked higher, you'd have to use that here as well, wouldn't you? Top to bottom, yeah the MVFC is better. Take out EWU and NDSU, I'd probly lean BSC.

I'll concede you WSU vs Iowa point. But the issue of Sky vs. MVC is the top to bottom issue you mention. MVFC has 10 teams. Of those 10, 6, yes count the SIX are in the top 25 per Sagarin. That is 60% of the conference. Big Fluffy? 13 teams with only 5 in the top 25. Only 38% of teams in.

BAM...respond to that!

[Mayville Bison]

Is SDSU 7-1? If they are, sure.


The fact of the matter is they are not. They are 5-3. EWU is 7-1, as are we. If you are comparing two teams that are both 7-1 and one of those team's loss is to the other team you're comparing; they are the better ranked team. This should be hard to understand...

Where would you put Cal Poly and UND? Both teams are 7-2 with an FBS loss. Cal Poly lost to UND. Most rankings have Cal Poly ahead of UND.

Where would you put UCA and Samford? Both teams have 1 loss in the FCS (Samford has an FBS loss). UCA lost to Samford. Most rankings have have UCA ahead of Samford.

[Mayville Bison]

And who is the say NDSU wouldn't win again? By Putting EWU #1, you aren't saying they could win on a neutral field you are saying they WOULD win on a neutral field.

I by no means would bet against NDSU, but it would be a similar feeling I had on the drive down to Iowa.

[Mayville Bison]

I'll concede you WSU vs Iowa point. But the issue of Sky vs. MVC is the top to bottom issue you mention. MVFC has 10 teams. Of those 10, 6, yes count the SIX are in the top 25 per Sagarin. That is 60% of the conference. Big Fluffy? 13 teams with only 5 in the top 25. Only 38% of teams in.

BAM...respond to that!

Weber State 49, South Dakota 52 (1-0) (forgot about this one to be honest)
Eastern Washington 44, North Dakota State 50 (2-0)
Northern Arizona 20, Western Illinois 34 (3-0)
Montana 20, Northern Iowa 14 (3-1)
South Dakota 44, North Dakota 47 (3-2)
Cal Poly 38, South Dakota State 31 (3-3)
Northern Iowa 30, Eastern Washington 34 (3-4)

Slight edge to the Big Sky especially since they didn't lose either of their 2 home games. Are they hands down better? No, but to definitively state it the other way is arguable at best.

[RedRiver]

Where would you put Cal Poly and UND? Both teams are 7-2 with an FBS loss. Cal Poly lost to UND. Most rankings have Cal Poly ahead of UND.

Don't sell UND's resume short, after all they have wins over a 1-8, 2-6 and 2-6 teams. Oh yes, they also have a loss to a 1 - 7 BCS team. Nothing more needs to be said without head to head matchups against EWU & CP.

[bisonaudit]

Weber State 49, South Dakota 52 (1-0) (forgot about this one to be honest)
Eastern Washington 44, North Dakota State 50 (2-0)
Northern Arizona 20, Western Illinois 34 (3-0)
Montana 20, Northern Iowa 14 (3-1)
South Dakota 44, North Dakota 47 (3-2)
Cal Poly 38, South Dakota State 31 (3-3)
Northern Iowa 30, Eastern Washington 34 (3-4)

Slight edge to the Big Sky especially since they didn't lose either of their 2 home games. Are they hands down better? No, but to definitively state it the other way is arguable at best.

It's hard to defeat arguments based on all of the data by only using some of the data. There is no edge, slight or otherwise for the Big Sky. The data strongly indicates that the MVFC is the superior conference. Sagarin Central Mean is like 9.5 points higher. More playoff caliber teams. Etc.

[MrSnuffleupagus]

Where would you put Cal Poly and UND? Both teams are 7-2 with an FBS loss. Cal Poly lost to UND. Most rankings have Cal Poly ahead of UND.

Where would you put UCA and Samford? Both teams have 1 loss in the FCS (Samford has an FBS loss). UCA lost to Samford. Most rankings have have UCA ahead of Samford.

You are missing the point. I am not saying that the teams with the best records are automatically higher seeds (although that's how it is IRL). Im saying that of the teams with the strength of schedule to back it up, then the comparison I made earlier is warranted.

A middle of the road MVFC would run a train on Sam Houston in my opinion.

[thebootfitter]

No justification for EWU being ranked above NDSU.

Seriously?

[MrSnuffleupagus]

Seriously?

I'm curious, what is the justification then? Almost winning?

[CAS4127]

I'm curious, what is the justification then? Almost winning?

Their kicker has improved.???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wagsabison]

Weber State 49, South Dakota 52 (1-0) (forgot about this one to be honest)
Eastern Washington 44, North Dakota State 50 (2-0)
Northern Arizona 20, Western Illinois 34 (3-0)
Montana 20, Northern Iowa 14 (3-1)
South Dakota 44, North Dakota 47 (3-2)
Cal Poly 38, South Dakota State 31 (3-3)
Northern Iowa 30, Eastern Washington 34 (3-4)

Slight edge to the Big Sky especially since they didn't lose either of their 2 home games. Are they hands down better? No, but to definitively state it the other way is arguable at best.

All those games were very competitive... just by looking at the final score.

[EC8CH]

https://www.bisonmediazone.com/listen-new-fcs-playoffs-chair-explains-playoff-rankings/

Playoff Chair indicates that strong non conference schedule will be very important in their rankings. Pretty clear indication that SHSU won't be ranked ahead of NDSU when they release their rankings on Thursday.

[THEsocalledfan]

Weber State 49, South Dakota 52 (1-0) (forgot about this one to be honest)
Eastern Washington 44, North Dakota State 50 (2-0)
Northern Arizona 20, Western Illinois 34 (3-0)
Montana 20, Northern Iowa 14 (3-1)
South Dakota 44, North Dakota 47 (3-2)
Cal Poly 38, South Dakota State 31 (3-3)
Northern Iowa 30, Eastern Washington 34 (3-4)

Slight edge to the Big Sky especially since they didn't lose either of their 2 home games. Are they hands down better? No, but to definitively state it the other way is arguable at best.

But you ignore the hot mess the rest of the conference is. The fundamental difference of why the MVFC is better is the top to bottom nature. The only traditional "lay ups" are Misery St. and Indiana St.; no one else. The Big Sky is riddled with lay up teams for the elite. So, if you combine your comparison of the interconference play with the horrible bottom of the Big Fluffy, there is no way to say they are better.

[ByeSonBusiness]

In a direct, head-to-head game, EWU lost. This is a fact. It is not opinion or supposition.

As a voter, how could you disregard this fact and put more credence into a flight of fancy? Until they prove otherwise, EWU should be ranked below NDSU.

Very easy for a voter to justify it.

1. Best player played half the game or so?
2. Played on the road in a very hostile environment and lost in OT.

I believe in the early 90's, Notre Dame beat Florida State. Both finished 10-1, and they gave the title to Florida State. It's not exactly unprecedented. Don't agree with it but it is what it is

[thebootfitter]

I'm curious, what is the justification then? Almost winning?
Each individual voter in a poll may have different criteria. You may be more aligned with one individual's criteria than another's, and that's fine. But to say that there is NO justification? That's BS. There's already been a number of comments in this thread to show that there is some justification.

For one, EWU took NDSU to overtime at NDSU. It's hard to argue based on that one game that either team is clearly superior. Then, looking at their record, they've been beating some decent to good teams fairly comfortably. Their only loss is a "good" loss to NDSU in overtime at NDSU. Compare that to our games that have been closer than they should have been on paper, and our loss to SDSU -- which is a "good" loss, but not as good as EWU's loss to NDSU. Overall, our opponents are probably a bit better as a group, which makes our strength of schedule a bit tougher, but some folks don't consider that as much as others.

If you try to look at it completely objectively, the two teams both have legitimate justification to be ranked #1. I am a little surprised that NDSU is not getting more #1 votes in any of the polls, but to say there is NO justification is asinine.

[89MTBISON]

Where would UNI be in the Sagarin ratings if their win over Misery State had only been by Sagarin's predicted MOV? Seems like that blowout is giving them too much lift in the ratings. And yes I am not smart enough to figure it out myself.

[Mayville Bison]

But you ignore the hot mess the rest of the conference is. The fundamental difference of why the MVFC is better is the top to bottom nature. The only traditional "lay ups" are Misery St. and Indiana St.; no one else. The Big Sky is riddled with lay up teams for the elite. So, if you combine your comparison of the interconference play with the horrible bottom of the Big Fluffy, there is no way to say they are better.

I'll give you that. Their crappy teams are crappier than our crappy teams and they have more of them.

To change the goalposts a little which group would you take

NDSU EWU
SDSU UM
WIU UND
UNI CP
YSU NAU
USD SUU
ISUr WSU

Just grabbed the top 7 (arguably) of each to take out the layups. BTW, great conversation!

[bisonaudit]

Where would UNI be in the Sagarin ratings if their win over Misery State had only been by Sagarin's predicted MOV? Seems like that blowout is giving them too much lift in the ratings. And yes I am not smart enough to figure it out myself.

Don't know. Can't isolate a single result without access to all of the data and the algorithm.

However, UNI's rating improved by 2.61 points following that game.

[thebootfitter]

Where would UNI be in the Sagarin ratings if their win over Misery State had only been by Sagarin's predicted MOV? Seems like that blowout is giving them too much lift in the ratings. And yes I am not smart enough to figure it out myself.
I'd have to either go look it up or have BisonAudit or Hammersmith comment, as they are probably a bit more up on how it works than I am, but I'm pretty sure Sagarin limits the impact of margin of victory after a certain threshold. For example, if you're expected to win by 10 and you win by 40, the model doesn't give you a full 30 points more for the extra margin of victory. In other words, I believe that a win by, say... 20 and a win by 40 will be fairly similar in terms of the bump you receive.

If anyone wants to clarify or correct, I won't be offended.

Edited to add: Oops, BisonAudit beat me to it, and it looks like I may be off base anyway. (I thought I remembered reading an article that mentioned Sagarin limits the margin of victory weight at some point. But I might have been thinking about some other rating system.)

Seeing Sagarin's brief explanations (which don't have any details into the actual algorithms), I wonder if I was reading about the "Golden_Mean" score, and that had a limited impact for margin of victory after a certain threshold?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[89MTBISON]

Don't know. Can't isolate a single result without access to all of the data and the algorithm.

However, UNI's rating improved by 2.61 points following that game.

Thanks. Thought it would be more than that. They obviously get plenty of help from SOS.

[thebootfitter]

Thanks. Thought it would be more than that. They obviously get plenty of help from SOS.
This is not really the right way to look at it. They help themselves by playing teams close to or better than expected. If they had a poor strength of schedule, in theory, they'd still have around the same rating because they'd be beating the worse teams by more or beating them period instead of losing close games to good teams.

Strength of schedule in computer rating systems is more a function of the results than it is an input that determines the ratings.

[89MTBISON]

Thanks to Hammersmith, I thought this was telling:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
83 Northern Iowa 66.27
84 Iowa State 65.71 -1.88 +5.00 +6.88
105 Montana 59.96 +8.75 -6.00 -14.75
77 Eastern Washington 66.98 -3.15 -4.00 -0.85
150 Southern Illinois 50.16 +18.55 +21.00 +2.45
143 South Dakota 52.80 +11.03 -3.00 -14.03
95 Youngstown State 62.60 +1.23 -4.00 -5.23
176 Missouri State 44.89 +23.82 +54.00 +30.18
56 North Dakota State 72.32 -3.61 -4.00 -0.39
159 Indiana State 48.48 +15.35
121 Western Illinois 56.16 +7.67
93 South Dakota State 63.11 +5.60

Total Diff: +4.26
Home Field 2.44
That one win over Misery state wiped out their two large loss differentials and took them from a large negative differential to a smallish positive differential. Does that have any bearing on their Sagarin rating? We beat em so....maybe none of this matters, just curious as to why UNI hangs around with 4 losses.

[Vet70]

Very easy for a voter to justify it.

1. Best player played half the game or so?
2. Played on the road in a very hostile environment and lost in OT.

I believe in the early 90's, Notre Dame beat Florida State. Both finished 10-1, and they gave the title to Florida State. It's not exactly unprecedented. Don't agree with it but it is what it is

This has been raised a few times and at least for me, that may not have made any difference. As I recall practically everyone Gabrud threw to in the second half caught the ball and scored.

[thebootfitter]

That one win over Misery state wiped out their two large loss differentials and took them from a large negative differential to a smallish positive differential. Does that have any bearing on their Sagarin rating? We beat em so....maybe none of this matters, just curious as to why UNI hangs around with 4 losses.
Imagine trying to come up with a rating system where that differential is as small as possible for all ~250 teams that play D-I college football. In a team sport where play of a single individual can sway the outcome. It is very unpredictable by nature, but he is accurately predicting outcomes around 75-80% of the time.

That's essentially what he is doing. Given that the system is the same for all teams, some teams may have a bigger differential at some point in the season than others. Teams that are on an upswing or downswing might see their differential increasing or decreasing week to week.

[bisonaudit]

Thanks to Hammersmith, I thought this was telling:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
83 Northern Iowa 66.27
84 Iowa State 65.71 -1.88 +5.00 +6.88
105 Montana 59.96 +8.75 -6.00 -14.75
77 Eastern Washington 66.98 -3.15 -4.00 -0.85
150 Southern Illinois 50.16 +18.55 +21.00 +2.45
143 South Dakota 52.80 +11.03 -3.00 -14.03
95 Youngstown State 62.60 +1.23 -4.00 -5.23
176 Missouri State 44.89 +23.82 +54.00 +30.18
56 North Dakota State 72.32 -3.61 -4.00 -0.39
159 Indiana State 48.48 +15.35
121 Western Illinois 56.16 +7.67
93 South Dakota State 63.11 +5.60

Total Diff: +4.26
Home Field 2.44
That one win over Misery state wiped out their two large loss differentials and took them from a large negative differential to a smallish positive differential. Does that have any bearing on their Sagarin rating? We beat em so....maybe none of this matters, just curious as to why UNI hangs around with 4 losses.


The way I think about the differentials (I don't know if this is right or not, it's just what I think) is if each game result is a point on graph the differential is a measure of how far above or below a line of best fit that point is. The algorithm is trying to minimize the differentials by drawing the best fitting line it can for every college football game in the data set (all 1,500 or so).

[89MTBISON]

Imagine trying to come up with a rating system where that differential is as small as possible for all ~250 teams that play D-I college football. In a team sport where play of a single individual can sway the outcome. It is very unpredictable by nature, but he is accurately predicting outcomes around 75-80% of the time.

That's essentially what he is doing. Given that the system is the same for all teams, some teams may have a bigger differential at some point in the season than others. Teams that are on an upswing or downswing might see their differential increasing or decreasing week to week.

Got it. Thanks. They have a very good team, their persistently high rating perhaps speaks more to how poor the rest of our division really is. Seems like there really are only a handfull of FCS teams who have a legit chance to win it all.

[thebootfitter]

This has been raised a few times and at least for me, that may not have made any difference. As I recall practically everyone Gabrud threw to in the second half caught the ball and scored.
That's valid as well, but not all poll voters will see it the same way. The fact remains that Kupp was out of the game for a half, and right or wrong, that carries some weight with voters.

[bisonaudit]

Got it. Thanks. They have a very good team, their persistently high rating perhaps speaks more to how poor the rest of our division really is. Seems like there really are only a handfull of FCS teams who have a legit chance to win it all.

Football is wildly unpredictable so it probably depends on what you mean by legit chance.

The best score prediction systems in the world are going to miss about 1/3 of the games by 14 points or more in one direction or the other. The spread between the last at-large team into the playoff field and the best team in the field will probably be around 20 points.

[bisonaudit]

I'll give you that. Their crappy teams are crappier than our crappy teams and they have more of them.

To change the goalposts a little which group would you take

NDSU EWU
SDSU UM
WIU UND
UNI CP
YSU NAU
USD SUU
ISUr WSU

Just grabbed the top 7 (arguably) of each to take out the layups. BTW, great conversation!

Using today's Sagarin ratings if every team in one column played a home and home with every team in the other column the expected record would be:

MVFC 64 Big Sky 34

[thebootfitter]

Got it. Thanks. They have a very good team, their persistently high rating perhaps speaks more to how poor the rest of our division really is. Seems like there really are only a handfull of FCS teams who have a legit chance to win it all.

That's not what I take from it, but perhaps it's valid to stretch to that.

I think it is more that they play a lot of tough teams (MVFC is tough, as evidenced by our OOC record the past few years). And they play those tough teams close (win or lose, it shows they are also quite good). Against lower rated teams, they generally win by a lot, which also supports their high rating.

I doubt that Sagarin has a way to measure and compare the "clutch" factor (if any such thing exists) for teams that just know how to win the game. For some of Sagarin's measures, it doesn't even matter which team wins... just the number of points they win or lose by in relation to the expectations from the previous week's ratings.

[Hammersmith]

That's not what I take from it, but perhaps it's valid to stretch to that.

I think it is more that they play a lot of tough teams (MVFC is tough, as evidenced by our OOC record the past few years). And they play those tough teams close (win or lose, it shows they are also quite good). Against lower rated teams, they generally win by a lot, which also supports their high rating.

I doubt that Sagarin has a way to measure and compare the "clutch" factor (if any such thing exists) for teams that just know how to win the game. For some of Sagarin's measures, it doesn't even matter which team wins... just the number of points they win or lose by in relation to the expectations from the previous week's ratings.

I like what Ken Pomeroy does for basketball. He actually has a "luck" factor that is a result of predicted vs. actual results. Teams that win many games they shouldn't, end up with a high luck rating. A team like UNI would have a poor luck rating because many of the games where the actual score differential is within a TD of the predicted score differential, but the result of the game often ended in a UNI loss.

IOW, the predicted score was a 3pt UNI win, but UNI loses by 1. The difference between the two scores is only 4pts, but it was enough to tip the balance against them. Enough games like that and you end up with a poor luck rating.

[Hammersmith]

The way I think about the differentials (I don't know if this is right or not, it's just what I think) is if each game result is a point on graph the differential is a measure of how far above or below a line of best fit that point is. The algorithm is trying to minimize the differentials by drawing the best fitting line it can for every college football game in the data set (all 1,500 or so).

Yeah, my differential columns are pretty meaningless. They're mainly there for my own amusement. It helps me see in what games the team appeared to over or underperform. The total differential has even less meaning, but seems to point to possible irregularities if it gets too high. High numbers in either direction can be caused by a very inconsistent team with wild swings. Or they can come from a team consistently missing a bit high or a bit low.

I wouldn't put any real stock in the total diff number at all.

[Scooter1]

No justification for EWU being ranked above NDSU.

Exactly. I don't give a shit where the game was played as long as it wasn't played on paper.

How many rematches can you name that NDSU has lost?

[b1son]

Only argument you could make is that EWU lost to a better opponent... but that happens to be NDSU.

Also EWU lost earlier in the year to us, the later in the year a team loses the more it hurts them.