2016 Sagarin Says

[SoCalBison]

Pre-season is out, and the Bison are #44 heading into Charleston Southern.

The following has the FCS teams in the top 100 as well as 2 other Bison opponents. (Home field advantage adds 2.61)

17 Iowa 85.12
44 NDSU 75.45
70 UNI 68.71
87 SDSU 64.67
91 Sam Houston 63.78
92 Chattanooga 63.77
97 Illinois State 62.86
100 Jacksonville State 62.34
145 Charleston Southern 51.00

Go Bison!

[MNLonghorn10]

Iowa by 10? fuck em...thats achievable

[SoCalBison]

Iowa by 10? fuck em...thats achievable

With home field advantage, it's 12.18--but same conclusion.

[MNLonghorn10]

Gonna be awesome when they go into Iowa city and leave with a 12.19 point win

[IzzyFlexion]

Gonna be awesome when they go into Iowa city and leave with a 12.19 point win

Ya see.....we're in Iowa.
So you gotta let me score 12.19 points.
If we were in Germany,
I'd have to score 2 touchdowns.
But we're in Iowa, so you gotta give me 12.19.
............It's regulation.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-InIzN0EAwYk/Uwv18W8VZWI/AAAAAAAACvs/tbrPkOZmDCs/s1600/cruiser.jpg

[Hammerhead]

NDSU rated higher than 4 teams in the Big Ten West. :) Also highest-rated non-conference opponent for Iowa.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/conference/

[Gothmog]

NDSU rated higher than 4 teams in the Big Ten West. :) Also highest-rated non-conference opponent for Iowa.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/conference/

Not that it means much at this point, but they're rated higher than 4 SEC teams.

[SoCalBison]

Just a reminder and comparison, Bison ended last season at #36.

[garbageman]

Maybe they don't have southern speed

[Rock]

Is this new? Thought Sagarin used to wait until week 8?

[bisonaudit]

Is this new? Thought Sagarin used to wait until week 8?

I don't think he's ever waited that long. He's published earlier with the disclosure that the model isn't well connected. And just the last few years he's published preseason.

[bucs90]

I'll never understand why the Big 10 and Big 12 folks keep scheduling you guys haha. Have they not learned yet?

[EC8CH]

I'll never understand why the Big 10 and Big 12 folks keep scheduling you guys haha. Have they not learned yet?

Big10 has. This one against Iowa is the last one that was scheduled before Delany made a rule that said no more FCS games for the Big10.

[Hammersmith]

And here we go again. I had to make some updates to the spreadsheet thebootfitter made for me to account for conference changes. I think I got it right, but those of you who really follow this can double check to see if something slipped through. The conference changes are that UMass is now an FBS independent and CCU is the only FCS independent. Standard caveat that this doesn't mean much until four to six weeks into the season.


Sagarin's 2016 Week 0 Predictions


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
44 North Dakota State 75.45
145 Charleston Southern 51.00 +27.06
133 Eastern Washington 53.59 +24.47
17 Iowa 85.12 -12.28
97 Illinois State 62.86 +15.20
189 Missouri State 40.27 +32.57
87 South Dakota State 64.67 +13.39
123 Western Illinois 55.77 +17.07
70 Northern Iowa 68.71 +4.13
109 Youngstown State 58.87 +19.19
157 Indiana State 48.04 +30.02
143 South Dakota 51.66 +21.18

140 Southern Illinois 51.93

Total Diff: +0.00
Home Field 2.61


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 44 75.45 North Dakota State
2 70 68.71 Northern Iowa
3 87 64.67 South Dakota State
4 91 63.78 Sam Houston State
5 92 63.77 Chattanooga
6 97 62.86 Illinois State
7 100 62.34 Jacksonville State
8 103 60.96 Richmond
9 104 60.56 Harvard
10 109 58.87 Youngstown State
11 115 57.23 Northern Arizona
12 117 56.92 William & Mary
13 119 55.92 The Citadel
14 123 55.77 Western Illinois
15 124 55.67 McNeese State
16 126 54.99 Montana
17 128 54.86 James Madison
18 130 54.01 Pennsylvania
19 132 53.90 Eastern Kentucky
20 133 53.59 Eastern Washington
21 134 52.91 Villanova
22 136 52.35 Portland State
23 139 51.99 Eastern Illinois
24 140 51.93 Southern Illinois
25 143 51.66 South Dakota


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 82.33 11
2 PAC-12 79.27 9
3 BIG 12 78.55 7
4 ACC 76.89 10
5 BIG TEN 73.80 8
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 71.85 2
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.94 2
8 MWC 62.74 2
9 MAC 59.99 1
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.69 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 56.93 1
12 SUN BELT 55.82 1
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 47.31 1
14 COLONIAL 47.10 1
15 BIG SKY 46.92 1
16 SOUTHERN 45.14 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.29 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 44.24 1
19 BIG SOUTH 40.44 1
20 PATRIOT 40.42 1
21 SOUTHLAND 38.02 1
22 NORTHEAST 34.78 1
23 MID-EASTERN 30.40 1
24 SWAC 24.56 1
25 PIONEER 19.57 1

[No_Skill]

Obligatory

https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/139/319073031_a5043c89be.jpg

[Professor Chaos]

Only 8 MVFC teams in Sagarin's FCS top 25???

[yopaulie]

Wow - that has us ranked higher than all MAC, Sunbelt, Conference USA, and Mountain West teams other than Boise St.

[Strategery]

Wow - that has us ranked higher than all MAC, Sunbelt, Conference USA, and Mountain West teams other than Boise St.

And all of the AAC other than Houston. Not bad.

[Christopher Moen]

Looks like the F'hawkers left too much doubt for Sagarin to consider them top-25.

[Twentysix]

Looks like the F'hawkers left too much doubt for Sagarin to consider them top-25.

The model doesn't consider the weight room until week 4.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0.. 6.2%
10-1 35.6%
9-2.. 38.1%
8-3.. 16.1%
7-4.... 3.5%
6-5.... 0.4%
5-6.... 0.03%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00004%
2-9.... 0.000001%
1-10.. 0.000000005%
0-11.. 0.00000000001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.CSU. 97.7%.. -27.06
v.EWU. 97.7%. -27.08
@Iowa 18.2%. +12.28
v.Ill St. 90.6%. -17.81
@Mo St 99.1%. -32.57
v.SDSU 83.9%. -13.39
@W Ill. 89.6%. -17.07
@UNI... 62.0%.. -4.03
v.YSU... 92.1% -19.19
v.Ind St 98.6%. -30.02
@USD.. 94.1%. -21.18

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
@Iowa. 18.2%.+12.28
@UNI... 62.0%.. -4.03
v.SDSU 83.9%. -13.39
@W Ill. 89.6%. -17.07
v.Ill St. 90.6%. -17.81
v.YSU... 92.1% -19.19
@USD.. 94.1%. -21.18
v.CSU. 97.7%.. -27.06
v.EWU. 97.7%. -27.08
v.Ind St 98.6%. -30.02
@Mo St 99.1%. -32.57

[JDZ]

@W Ill. 89.6%. -17.07
v.Ill St. 90.6%. -17.81
v.YSU... 92.1% -19.19
@USD.. 94.1%. -21.18
v.CSU. 97.7%.. -27.06
v.EWU. 97.7%. -27.08


LOL at ISUr, YSU, and EWU. :)

[MrSnuffleupagus]

LOL at ISUr, YSU, and EWU. :)

Yeah...but what was the Sagarin prediction for the USD game last year? Just sayin...

[MNLonghorn10]

Yeah...but what was the Sagarin prediction for the USD game last year? Just sayin...

Believe it was

"USD....0%. +3"

[bisonaudit]

Believe it was

"USD....0%. +3"

v.USD.. 96.3% -24.5

[THEsocalledfan]

Yeah...but what was the Sagarin prediction for the USD game last year? Just sayin...

And remember it is am mathematical model; it can't account for injuries until after the injury happens.

[bisonaudit]

And remember it is am mathematical model; it can't account for injuries until after the injury happens.

It actually doesn't do that at all. Not in any direct sense.

[MNLonghorn10]

v.USD.. 96.3% -24.5

Wrong. NDSU had 0% chance of winning that game. Sagarin nailed it

[THEsocalledfan]

It actually doesn't do that at all. Not in any direct sense.

I hear what you are saying and agree, but if performance of the overall team is affected leading to differences of variables that go into the model........

[MrSnuffleupagus]

And remember it is am mathematical model; it can't account for an injury until after the injury happens.



I hear what you are saying and agree, but if performance of the overall team is affected leading to differences of variables that go into the model........


Which one is it? A loss because of one injury, or a team effort?

[No_Skill]

Wait, this thing isn't correct 100% of the time. This is bullcrap!

http://i.imgur.com/cXjGqGp.jpg

[FrozenTech]

Which one is it? A loss because of one injury, or a team effort?

The USD loss, like the Montana loss was a combination of factors. But a big part of it, in my opinion was Carson being unable to play to his potential due to being (unknowingly) injured. Carson is and was an amazing player and I truly believe that prior to his wrist injury some of the team was in coast mode, because as long as they played *just well enough* Carson and his arm could get them through with enough points. It wasn't *just* Carson going down in either Montana or USD that caused the loss, but it was that, and perhaps a not quite focused enough team effort that helped create the environment for the losses.

Because the next week, and every week after up to the NC game, that team was a completely different beast. Almost like an on switch was flipped.

It my hope that this year the switch gets flipped to on, and then torn straight off the wall from game one.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0. 2.6%.. -3.6%
10-1 19.3% -16.4%
9-2 36.2%.. -1.9%
8-3 28.1% +12.1%
7-4 11.1%. +7.6%
6-5.. 2.4%. +2.0%
5-6.. 0.3%. +0.3%
4-7 0.02%
3-8 0.001%
2-9 0.00001%
1-10 0.00000005%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.EWU.. 90.1%. -17.5.. -7.6% +9.5
@Iowa.. 16.3% +13.5.. -1.9% +1.0
v.Ill St.. 91.9%. -19.0. +1.3% -1.0
@Mo St. 98.8%. -31.0. -0.3% +1.5
v.SDSU. 71.4%.. -7.5. -12.5% +6.0
@W Ill.. 77.1%. -10.0. -12.5% +7.0
@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0
v.YSU.. 81.2%.. -12.0 -10.9% +7.0
v.Ind St 98.5%. -29.5. -0.1%. +0.5
@USD. 93.6%.. -20.5. -0.5%. +0.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
... @Iowa.. 16.3% +13.5
... @UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0
... v.SDSU. 71.4%.. -7.5
... @W Ill.. 77.1%. -10.0
+1 v.YSU.. 81.2%.. -12.0
+2 v.EWU.. 90.1%. -17.5
-2 v.Ill St.. 91.9%. -19.0
-1 @USD. 93.6%.. -20.5
... v.Ind St 98.5%. -29.5
... @Mo St. 98.8%. -31.0

[MrSnuffleupagus]

@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0

eff you.

:'(

[THEsocalledfan]

Is Washington St. particularly horrible? I would thought EWU would get more of a bounce.

[bisonaudit]

Is Washington St. particularly horrible? I would thought EWU would get more of a bounce.

They're at 70.66 today. Don't know where they were last week.

[Bison 4 Life]

@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0

eff you.

:'(

It is going to be an uphill climb. I don't entirely disagree on that one.

[Christopher Moen]

They're at 70.66 today. Don't know where they were last week.

They were ranked #41 (76.32).

[semobison]

Is Washington St. particularly horrible? I would thought EWU would get more of a bounce.

Wash St. Was suppose to be on the rise. They went 9-4 last year for their first winning record in over 10 years and beat Miami Fla. in the Sunbowl. One of their losses however was in the opener to Portland State.

[bisonaudit]

The Sagarin line on EWU v Wash St was 25.5 and EWU won by 3 so that's 28.5 different from the prior expectation.

Following the game EWU's rating improved more than 6 points and Wash St decreased a little less than 6 points. The model priced in about 40% of the result.

[GOBISON123]

@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0

eff you.

:'(

They have atleast 10 FBS transfers in their starting line-up. All 4 backfield D backs are FBS transfers. This game ain't nothing but another FBS transfer game

[Hammersmith]

NDSU dropped quite a bit. No longer favored in every FCS game(UNI). Haven't looked at it more than that. Just slapped it together once I got home from work.

Sagarin's 2016 Week 2 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
59 North Dakota State 71.93
126 Charleston Southern 55.00 +19.54 +7.00 -12.54
108 Eastern Washington 59.70 +14.84
23 Iowa 82.62 -13.30
114 Illinois State 58.16 +16.38
197 Missouri State 38.31 +31.01
80 South Dakota State 66.93 +7.61
109 Western Illinois 59.31 +10.01
66 Northern Iowa 70.40 -1.08
95 Youngstown State 62.56 +11.98
176 Indiana State 45.00 +29.54
154 South Dakota 48.68 +20.64

141 Southern Illinois 51.92

Total Diff: -12.54
Home Field 2.61


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 59 71.93 North Dakota State
2 66 70.40 Northern Iowa
3 77 67.31 Richmond
4 80 66.93 South Dakota State
5 95 62.56 Youngstown State
6 98 61.78 Sam Houston State
7 99 61.78 Chattanooga
8 102 61.28 James Madison
9 104 60.34 Jacksonville State
10 108 59.70 Eastern Washington
11 109 59.31 Western Illinois
12 112 58.57 Harvard
13 114 58.16 Illinois State
14 124 55.73 Northern Arizona
15 125 55.05 William & Mary
16 126 55.00 Charleston Southern
17 128 54.87 The Citadel
18 131 53.83 Villanova
19 133 53.69 McNeese State
20 134 53.48 Montana
21 136 52.52 Eastern Kentucky
22 137 52.33 Coastal Carolina
23 139 52.02 Pennsylvania
24 141 51.92 Southern Illinois
25 144 50.37 Portland State


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.69 11
2 PAC-12 77.83 11
3 BIG 12 79.37 9
4 ACC 76.96 12
5 BIG TEN 73.68 11
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.32 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.02 4
8 MWC 61.51 3
9 MAC 59.36 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.77 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.50 1
12 SUN BELT 55.95 1
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 52.33 1
14 COLONIAL 48.20 1
15 BIG SKY 47.17 1
16 SOUTHERN 45.80 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.22 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 42.27 1
19 BIG SOUTH 42.03 1
20 PATRIOT 41.05 1
21 SOUTHLAND 37.73 1
22 NORTHEAST 32.80 1
23 MID-EASTERN 29.10 1
24 SWAC 24.86 1
25 PIONEER 19.52 1

[MNLonghorn10]

good lord...that was a free fall we havent seen in quite some time after a win...i dont think NDSU fell that far after losing to South Dakota

[Mayville Bison]

I'm guessing it had something to do with the 2013 season dropping out of the calculation while it was probably in there for the pre-season calculation. If early in the year it looks at the last 3 years (with different weights on them), that would be a partial explanation. Anyone know how much of a drop-off we saw after the Montana loss in week 0 last year?

[Hammerhead]

2015 preseason rating was 79.73 or #32 in the nation. After the Montana game we dropped to 69.51 or #69 in the nation while still remaining the highest-rated team in the FCS.

[DakotaOkie]

Week #3..dropped to #67.
EWU moved up to #99 after yesterday's game.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 3 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
67 North Dakota State 70.25
131 Charleston Southern 53.94 +18.92 +7.00 -11.92
99 Eastern Washington 61.63 +11.23 +6.00 -5.23
13 Iowa 85.55 -17.91
97 Illinois State 61.98 +10.88
189 Missouri State 41.67 +25.97
91 South Dakota State 64.00 +8.86
102 Western Illinois 61.35 +6.29
88 Northern Iowa 64.76 +2.88
93 Youngstown State 63.45 +9.41
175 Indiana State 45.55 +27.31
166 South Dakota 47.22 +20.42

138 Southern Illinois 52.01

Total Diff: -17.15
Home Field 2.61


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 67 70.25 North Dakota State
2 79 67.12 Richmond
3 88 64.76 Northern Iowa
4 89 64.44 Chattanooga
5 90 64.34 Jacksonville State
6 91 64.00 South Dakota State
7 93 63.45 Youngstown State
8 97 61.98 Illinois State
9 98 61.97 Sam Houston State
10 99 61.63 Eastern Washington
11 102 61.35 Western Illinois
12 103 61.18 James Madison
13 113 58.76 Harvard
14 116 58.05 Montana
15 127 54.88 Northern Arizona
16 129 54.15 The Citadel
17 130 54.03 McNeese State
18 131 53.94 Charleston Southern
19 133 53.77 Coastal Carolina
20 134 52.98 William & Mary
21 136 52.46 Samford
22 137 52.21 Pennsylvania
23 138 52.01 Southern Illinois
24 139 51.99 Villanova
25 140 51.96 Eastern Illinois


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.70 14
2 PAC-12 78.24 11
3 BIG 12 78.09 9
4 ACC 76.39 12
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.81 3
6 BIG TEN 72.94 11
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 68.18 6
8 MWC 61.79 3
9 MAC 59.05 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.16 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 57.50 3
12 SUN BELT 56.26 2
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 53.77 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.13 1
15 COLONIAL 47.97 1
16 BIG SKY 47.23 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 45.00 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 42.45 1
19 BIG SOUTH 40.95 1
20 PATRIOT 40.67 1
21 SOUTHLAND 39.19 1
22 NORTHEAST 34.28 1
23 MID-EASTERN 29.79 1
24 SWAC 25.51 1
25 PIONEER 20.67 1

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0. 1.6%.. -1.0%
10-1 18.5% -0.8%
9-2 35.5%.. -0.7%
8-3 29.0% +0.9%
7-4 12.2%. +1.2%
6-5.. 2.8%. +0.4%
5-6.. 0.3%. +0.1%
4-7 0.02%
3-8 0.001%
2-9 0.00001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
@Iowa.. 9.3% +18.0 -7.0% +4.5
v.Ill St.. 84.1% -13.5 -6.8% +5.5
@Mo St. 97.2% -26.0 -1.6% +5.0
v.SDSU. 74.4% -9.0 +3.0% -1.5
@W Ill.. 68.0% -6.5 -9.1% +3.5
@UNI.. 58.5% -3.0 +11.7% -4.0
v.YSU.. 75.7% -9.5 -5.5% +2.5
v.Ind St 97.8% -27.5 -0.7% +2.0
@USD. 93.4% -20.5 -0.2% +0.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
... @Iowa.. 9.3% +18.0
... @UNI.. 58.5% -3.0
+1 @W Ill.. 68.0% -6.5
-1 v.SDSU. 74.4% -9.0
... v.YSU.. 75.7% -9.5
... v.Ill St.. 84.1% -13.5
... @USD. 93.4% -20.5
+1 @Mo St. 97.2% -26.0
-1 v.Ind St 97.8% -27.5

[MrSnuffleupagus]

Gotta love that 68% chance of winning at Western Illinois. uffda.

[THEsocalledfan]

This does feel like a two or three loss team and numbers agree.

[BisonNation11]

This team reminds me of the 2011/2012 teams. The potential is there, but you never know from week to week how it's going to go. Yeah, it's early, but that's the feeling I get.

[tjbison]

We beat 2 top 25 teams to Start the season in OOC, Iowa game makes no difference, just need to get out without injuries.

if it all goes like it looks we be facing 7 of 10 opponents ranked in the top 25 and 1 FBS top 25 team, we win the conference we will be a top 2 seed. Lots of work but its a good start

[wtffootballfan]

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2016&sub=11605

[SDbison]

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2016&sub=11605 9 of 10 Missouri Valley teams in the top 34.

[Bison03]

This team reminds me of the 2011/2012 teams. The potential is there, but you never know from week to week how it's going to go. Yeah, it's early, but that's the feeling I get.
Remember week 1 vs Montana last year? How bad did the defense look. Then compare that to how the defense played in the playoffs. No reason not to think the same thing will happen again this year.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 4 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
54 North Dakota State 73.48
134 Charleston Southern 53.64 +22.54 +7.00 -15.54
89 Eastern Washington 63.74 +12.44 +6.00 -6.44
19 Iowa 82.79 -12.01 +2.00 +14.01
108 Illinois State 60.05 +16.13
191 Missouri State 41.33 +29.45
105 South Dakota State 60.59 +15.59
96 Western Illinois 61.96 +8.82
86 Northern Iowa 64.59 +6.19
93 Youngstown State 62.64 +13.54
172 Indiana State 46.95 +29.23
167 South Dakota 47.75 +23.03

139 Southern Illinois 52.84

Total Diff: -7.97
Home Field 2.70


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 54 73.48 North Dakota State
2 86 64.59 Northern Iowa
3 87 63.97 Chattanooga
4 89 63.74 Eastern Washington
5 92 62.71 Sam Houston State
6 93 62.64 Youngstown State
7 96 61.96 Western Illinois
8 97 61.92 Jacksonville State
9 104 60.78 James Madison
10 105 60.59 South Dakota State
11 108 60.05 Illinois State
12 110 59.61 Richmond
13 116 58.42 Harvard
14 117 58.09 Montana
15 121 56.18 Coastal Carolina
16 128 55.23 Cal Poly-SLO
17 129 54.80 Eastern Illinois
18 130 54.80 Villanova
19 132 54.40 Northern Arizona
20 133 53.67 William & Mary
21 134 53.64 Charleston Southern
22 135 53.40 The Citadel
23 137 53.12 Samford
24 138 52.96 Colgate
25 139 52.84 Southern Illinois


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.32 11
2 PAC-12 78.29 11
3 BIG 12 78.22 9
4 ACC 76.91 10
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 76.72 4
6 BIG TEN 72.91 8
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.29 3
8 MWC 61.83 3
9 MAC 60.80 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.72 1
11 SUN BELT 56.36 1
12 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 56.18 1
13 CONFERENCE USA 55.99 1
14 COLONIAL 49.22 1
15 SOUTHERN 48.31 1
16 BIG SKY 47.48 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 45.16 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 42.51 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.43 1
20 PATRIOT 41.37 1
21 SOUTHLAND 39.81 1
22 NORTHEAST 34.53 1
23 MID-EASTERN 29.57 1
24 SWAC 25.52 1
25 PIONEER 20.34 1

[MNLonghorn10]

Weak bump. Thought a top 30 win would put NDSU back into the 40s. Just gotta kick the shit out of isur and right the ship

[No_Skill]

Weak bump. Thought a top 30 win would put NDSU back into the 40s. Just gotta kick the shit out of isur and right the ship

Still not fully connected. Just look at UNI. They barely fell after two losses.

[bisonaudit]

Still not fully connected. Just look at UNI. They barely fell after two losses.

They lost a road game by 4 this week that the model thought they should have won by less than a point. They shouldn't have fell very much.

And they dropped 6 rating points after the Montana loss.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0 31.4% +29.9%
10-1 41.6% +23.1%
9-2.. 21.0%. -14.5%
8-3.... 5.2%. -23.8%
7-4.... 0.7%. -11.5%
6-5.... 0.05%. -2.8%
5-6.... 0.002% -0.3%
4-7.... 0.00003%
3-8.... 0.0000002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.Ill St.. 91.6% -18.5.. +7.5% -5.0
@Mo St. 98.5% -29.5.. +1.3% -3.5
v.SDSU. 87.5% -15.5 +13.1% -6.5
@W Ill.. 74.3%.. -9.0.. +6.3% -2.5
@UNI... 67.7%.. -6.0.. +9.2% -3.0
v.YSU... 84.2% -13.5.. +8.5% -4.0
v.Ind St 98.4% -29.0.. +0.6% -1.5
@USD.. 95.5% -23.0.. +2.1% -2.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
... @UNI... 67.7%.. -6.0
... @W Ill.. 74.3%.. -9.0
+1 v.YSU... 84.2% -13.5
-1 v.SDSU. 87.5% -15.5
... v.Ill St.. 91.6% -18.5
... @USD.. 95.5% -23.0
+1 v.Ind St 98.4% -29.0
-1 @Mo St. 98.5% -29.5

[thebootfitter]

Still not a cakewalk, but according to the statistics, it appears we've gotten over a hump in the road.

Sent from my ONE A2005 using Tapatalk

[SoCalBison]

Still not fully connected. Just look at UNI. They barely fell after two losses.

I'm disappointed. After all, we dropped 15 slots after our first WIN this season. Beat #11 in FBS and move up 13?

[Buffalo.Rider]

NDSU is ranked 27th in the latest AP poll, tied with UCLA.

If NDSU played UCLA, I think they would kick UCLA's a*@$. The people in some of those west coast schools (and east coast schools) like to refer to this part of the USA as the "fly-over zone" which smacks of condescension and perhaps some serious arrogance.

[SoCalBison]

Bison move up to #50 in Sagarin (from 54) during the bye week.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 5 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
50 North Dakota State 74.37
117 Charleston Southern 56.19 +20.58 +7.00 -13.58
87 Eastern Washington 64.66 +12.11 +6.00 -6.11
25 Iowa 82.31 -10.34 +2.00 +12.34
113 Illinois State 57.36 +19.41
188 Missouri State 41.62 +30.35
105 South Dakota State 60.13 +16.64
97 Western Illinois 62.17 +9.80
88 Northern Iowa 64.58 +7.39
96 Youngstown State 62.18 +14.59
158 Indiana State 48.23 +28.54
167 South Dakota 46.32 +25.65

134 Southern Illinois 52.99

Total Diff: -7.35
Home Field 2.40


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 50 74.37 North Dakota State
2 85 64.91 Jacksonville State
3 87 64.66 Eastern Washington
4 88 64.58 Northern Iowa
5 90 64.24 Chattanooga
6 96 62.18 Youngstown State
7 97 62.17 Western Illinois
8 103 60.61 Sam Houston State
9 104 60.31 James Madison
10 105 60.13 South Dakota State
11 110 57.89 Harvard
12 111 57.75 Richmond
13 112 57.60 Montana
14 113 57.36 Illinois State
15 115 57.05 Coastal Carolina
16 117 56.19 Charleston Southern
17 124 55.34 Cal Poly-SLO
18 125 54.90 Villanova
19 129 54.37 Wofford
20 131 53.24 The Citadel
21 132 53.13 Dartmouth
22 134 52.99 Southern Illinois
23 137 52.67 Northern Arizona
24 138 52.58 Eastern Illinois
25 139 52.24 Central Arkansas


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.18 10
2 BIG 12 78.27 9
3 PAC-12 78.20 10
4 ACC 77.07 10
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.79 3
6 BIG TEN 72.06 7
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 68.96 4
8 MWC 60.58 2
9 MAC 59.47 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.24 1
11 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 57.05 1
12 SUN BELT 55.48 1
13 CONFERENCE USA 55.10 1
14 SOUTHERN 47.72 1
15 COLONIAL 47.54 1
16 BIG SKY 46.44 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.81 1
18 IVY LEAGUE 41.72 1
19 BIG SOUTH 41.57 1
20 PATRIOT 40.35 1
21 SOUTHLAND 40.20 1
22 NORTHEAST 34.84 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.95 1
24 SWAC 24.64 1
25 PIONEER 20.52 1

[Bison Bridge Guy]

So is Western Illinois legit? Do we need to worry about them?

[Twincitybizon]

So is Western Illinois legit? Do we need to worry about them?

Sure seems like it, but we'll have to see them finish games better before I'll believe.

[THEsocalledfan]

Paging Audit. Need to know our percentage chance of winning.

[Bisonator98]

So is Western Illinois legit? Do we need to worry about them?

This week will give us some more insight on both WIU and SDSU.

[VirginiaBison]

Need to worry about every team/game. Once you stop worrying because it is "in the bag", you are toast. Trust the process. 1-0 every week. Stay humble. its worked for 6 years. Don't screw it up.

[bisonaudit]

Paging Audit. Need to know our percentage chance of winning.

Sorry guys I'm in Olympic National Forrest most of this week so there may not be an update for a bit.

[Christopher Moen]

Need to worry about every team/game. Once you stop worrying because it is "in the bag", you are toast. Trust the process. 1-0 every week. Stay humble. its worked for 6 years. Don't screw it up.

I agree. The last time NDSU lost a game, there might have been a feeling among the team that the game would be "in the bag." If the Bison brings their best every week, there are not too many teams, regardless of classification, that can beat them.

[stevdock]

I agree. The last time NDSU lost a game, there might have been a feeling among the team that the game would be "in the bag." If the Bison brings their best every week, there are not too many teams, regardless of classification, that can beat them.

Just the team?? The crowd was pretty pathetic too (including myself). No energy in the dome until it was too late.

[Christopher Moen]

Just the team?? The crowd was pretty pathetic too (including myself). No energy in the dome until it was too late.

I'm not bringing that up again. I kind of got slammed for being critical of us fans for not being into it too. This was my take despite being 1,000 miles away and watching the game at a Bison Watch Party.

I'll just say we all (team and fans) got a lot better right away.

[56BISON73]

I agree. The last time NDSU lost a game, there might have been a feeling among the team that the game would be "in the bag." If the Bison brings their best every week, there are not too many teams, regardless of classification, that can beat them.

Didnt we jump out to a 14-0 lead?

[Christopher Moen]

Didnt we jump out to a 14-0 lead?

Yes we did: http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400795735

However, it just seemed like everyone was "out" of it after having so many emotional games in a row. This included myself while sitting by myself at a watch party and never getting emotionally into the game. I didn't realize the game was in danger until the Bison got a personal foul after accidentally knocking the helmet off the USD's QB during a sack on third down.

[56BISON73]

Yes we did: http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400795735

However, it just seemed like everyone was "out" of it after having so many emotional games in a row. This included myself while sitting by myself at a watch party and never getting emotionally into the game. I didn't realize the game was in danger until the Bison got a personal foul after accidentally knocking the helmet off the USD's QB during a sack on third down.

The team let off the gas. No focus or enthusiasm. Klieman said he could see it all week. The fans had nothing to do with the loss.

[Christopher Moen]

The team let off the gas. No focus or enthusiasm. Klieman said he could see it all week. The fans had nothing to do with the loss.

No, the loss isn't on the fans. However, sometimes we can be the catalyst to spark the team to do better.

[56BISON73]

No, the loss isn't on the fans. However, sometimes we can be the catalyst to spark the team to do better.

Not that weekend.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0 37.0% +5.6%
10-1 41.5%. -0.1%
9-2.. 17.6%. -3.5%
8-3.... 3.6%. -1.6%
7-4.... 0.4%. -0.3%
6-5.... 0.02%
5-6.... 0.001%
4-7.... 0.00001%
3-8.... 0.00000004%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.Ill St.. 94.7% -22.0 +3.1%. -3.5
@Mo St. 98.7% -30.5 +0.2%. -1.0
v.SDSU. 89.0% -16.5 +1.5%. -1.0
@W Ill.. 76.6% -10.0 +2.3%. -1.0
@UNI... 70.8%.. -7.5 +3.1%. -1.5
v.YSU... 86.0% -14.5 +1.8%. -1.0
v.Ind St 98.2% -28.5. -0.2% +0.5
@USD.. 97.0% -25.5 +1.5%. -1.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
... @UNI... 70.8%.. -7.5
... @W Ill.. 76.6% -10.0
... v.YSU... 86.0% -14.5
... v.SDSU. 89.0% -16.5
... v.Ill St.. 94.7% -22.0
... @USD.. 97.0% -25.5
... v.Ind St 98.2% -28.5
... @Mo St. 98.7% -30.5

[1993bison]

Not that weekend.
I've noticed our fans kind of go into hiding if the Bison play like shit.

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[unbison]

I've noticed our fans kind of go into hiding if the Bison play like shit.

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Everyone but you I'm sure

[1993bison]

Everyone but you I'm sure
How could you be sure?

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[THEsocalledfan]

Love how being idle actually increased our odds of a better record. Note undefeated is starting to gain traction....

[Hammersmith]

Small bump, no thanks to Iowa. The Hawkeyes dropped to 32, so the Bison no longer have a top-30 win. UNI reclaims the #2 spot. Missouri St and USD are now considered about equal, while ISUb is the worst team in the conference.

(Sagarin changed the name of Army to Army West Point, so if you have any automated spreadsheets, you many need to update them.)

Sagarin's 2016 Week 6 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
48 North Dakota State 74.47
111 Charleston Southern 57.60 +19.46 +7.00 -12.46
Bye
86 Eastern Washington 65.40 +11.66 +6.00 -5.66
32 Iowa 79.28 -7.40 +2.00 +9.40
Bye
120 Illinois State 56.27 +20.79 +21.00 +0.21
166 Missouri State 47.14 +24.74
92 South Dakota State 64.06 +13.00
113 Western Illinois 56.80 +15.08
79 Northern Iowa 66.17 +5.71
100 Youngstown State 61.07 +15.99
179 Indiana State 44.37 +32.69
162 South Dakota 47.80 +24.08

135 Southern Illinois 52.64

Total Diff: -8.51
Home Field 2.59


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 48 74.47 North Dakota State
2 79 66.17 Northern Iowa
3 84 65.86 Jacksonville State
4 86 65.40 Eastern Washington
5 91 64.31 Chattanooga
6 92 64.06 South Dakota State
7 93 63.57 Sam Houston State
8 97 61.65 James Madison
9 100 61.07 Youngstown State
10 103 59.42 Montana
11 110 57.69 Villanova
12 111 57.60 Charleston Southern
13 112 56.97 Coastal Carolina
14 113 56.80 Western Illinois
15 119 56.29 Richmond
16 120 56.27 Illinois State
17 124 55.27 The Citadel
18 125 54.94 Harvard
19 130 54.40 Cal Poly-SLO
20 131 54.24 Wofford
21 133 53.70 Central Arkansas
22 134 52.75 Samford
23 135 52.64 Southern Illinois
24 141 50.29 Liberty
25 142 50.24 McNeese State


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.22 10
2 PAC-12 78.13 9
3 BIG 12 77.76 9
4 ACC 77.21 10
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.43 3
6 BIG TEN 72.21 6
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 68.59 4
8 MWC 60.05 2
9 MAC 58.81 3
10 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 56.97 1
11 MISSOURI VALLEY 56.71 1
12 SUN BELT 56.07 1
13 CONFERENCE USA 55.17 1
14 COLONIAL 47.55 1
15 SOUTHERN 47.49 1
16 BIG SKY 46.63 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.47 1
18 BIG SOUTH 42.80 1
19 IVY LEAGUE 41.78 1
20 PATRIOT 40.78 1
21 SOUTHLAND 39.83 1
22 NORTHEAST 36.19 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.95 1
24 SWAC 25.06 1
25 PIONEER 19.86 1

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0 38.9% +1.9%
10-1 42.0% +0.5%
9-2.. 16.0%. -1.5%
8-3.... 2.9%. -0.7%
7-4.... 0.3%. -0.1%
6-5.... 0.01%
5-6.... 0.0002%
4-7.... 0.000001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
@Mo St. 96.5% -24.5. -2.2% +6.0
v.SDSU. 83.2% -13.0. -5.8% +3.5
@W Ill.. 86.7% -15.0 +10.1% -5.0
@UNI.... 66.4%. -5.5. -4.4% +2.0
v.YSU... 88.1% -16.0. +2.1% -1.5
v.Ind St. 99.2% -32.5 +1.0% -4.0
@USD... 96.2% -24.0. -0.8% +1.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... @UNI... 66.4%.. -5.5
+2 v.SDSU. 83.2% -13.0
.-1 @W Ill.. 86.7% -15.0
.-1 v.YSU... 88.1% -16.0
.... @USD.. 96.2%. -24.0
+1 @Mo St. 96.5% -24.5
.-1 v.Ind St 99.2%. -32.5

[Hammersmith]

We pretty much nailed the prediction for last week, so no surprise we didn't move. Pretty sure we're now well-connected and not using data from previous years.

Sagarin's 2016 Week 7 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
48 North Dakota State 74.60
111 Charleston Southern 57.87 +19.20 +7.00 -12.20
Bye
83 Eastern Washington 64.64 +12.43 +6.00 -6.43
32 Iowa 79.23 -7.10 +2.00 +9.10
Bye
128 Illinois State 54.79 +22.28 +21.00 -1.28
169 Missouri State 46.61 +25.52 +24.00 -1.52
94 South Dakota State 63.41 +13.66
125 Western Illinois 55.31 +16.82
89 Northern Iowa 63.88 +8.25
92 Youngstown State 63.68 +13.39
178 Indiana State 45.28 +31.79
148 South Dakota 50.80 +21.33

138 Southern Illinois 52.47

Total Diff: -12.33
Home Field 2.47


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 48 74.60 North Dakota State
2 81 65.03 Jacksonville State
3 83 64.64 Eastern Washington
4 89 63.88 Northern Iowa
5 91 63.73 Chattanooga
6 92 63.68 Youngstown State
7 94 63.41 South Dakota State
8 98 61.33 Sam Houston State
9 102 60.25 James Madison
10 105 59.48 Montana
11 108 58.49 Villanova
12 111 57.87 Charleston Southern
13 115 57.34 Coastal Carolina
14 122 56.34 Richmond
15 124 55.32 The Citadel
16 125 55.31 Western Illinois
17 127 54.93 Cal Poly-SLO
18 128 54.79 Illinois State
19 129 54.57 Wofford
20 131 54.11 Samford
21 132 54.08 Harvard
22 133 53.90 Central Arkansas
23 137 52.72 North Dakota
24 138 52.47 Southern Illinois
25 142 51.93 Lehigh


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.41 9
2 PAC-12 78.60 9
3 BIG 12 77.80 9
4 ACC 77.51 10
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.04 3
6 BIG TEN 72.16 7
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.01 4
8 MWC 60.56 2
9 MAC 59.69 3
10 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 57.34 1
11 MISSOURI VALLEY 56.61 1
12 SUN BELT 56.39 1
13 CONFERENCE USA 56.19 1
14 SOUTHERN 47.77 1
15 COLONIAL 47.37 1
16 BIG SKY 47.15 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.69 1
18 BIG SOUTH 43.44 1
19 IVY LEAGUE 41.25 1
20 PATRIOT 40.83 1
21 SOUTHLAND 40.21 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.98 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.54 1
24 SWAC 25.43 1
25 PIONEER 20.75 1

[Mr Pep Band]

Iowa #32....


NDSU #49.......




.......Oregon #50 :nod:

[BYZEN]

Iowa #32....


NDSU #49.......




.......Oregon #50 :nod:

Oregon new they would be irrelevant in 2020 so they figured why wait???:hide:

[tjbison]

Iowa needs to get it together

[THEsocalledfan]

Is this the first time the knuckleheads have been Sagarin top 25?

[SDbison]

Is this the first time the knuckleheads have been Sagarin top 25? Does anybody care?

[cbline]

Is this the first time the knuckleheads have been Sagarin top 25?

Irrelevant. It's hockey season.

I see the F'n Hawks played Canisius over the weekend. Is "Canisius" an STD, or was it a Roman general from the 1st century?

[THEsocalledfan]

Does anybody care?

Ha, ha.....

So the real question is are they really in the top 25, if no one is in the woods to hear it?

[Vet70]

Irrelevant. It's hockey season.

I see the F'n Hawks played Canisius over the weekend. Is "Canisius" an STD, or was it a Roman general from the 1st century?

Highest level :rofl:.

[Hammerhead]

Is this the first time the knuckleheads have been Sagarin top 25?

Probably. Last year the Fawkers were #34 at the end of the regular season and moved up to #30 after the championship game.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0 43.1% +4.2%
10-1 40.4%. -1.6%
9-2.. 14.0%. -2.0%
8-3.... 2.3% -0.6%
7-4.... 0.2% -0.1%
6-5.... 0.01%
5-6.... 0.00004%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.SDSU. 84.4% -13.5 +1.2%. -0.5
@W Ill.. 89.3% -17.0 +2.6%. -2.0
@UNI.... 73.1%. -8.5 +6.7%. -3.0
v.YSU... 83.8% -13.5. -4.3% +2.5
v.Ind St. 99.0% -32.0. -0.2% +0.5
@USD... 94.2% -21.5. -2.0% +2.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... @UNI... 73.1%.. -8.5
+2 v.YSU... 83.8% -13.5
.-1 v.SDSU. 84.4% -13.5
.-1 @W Ill.. 89.3% -17.0
.... @USD.. 94.2%. -21.5
.... v.Ind St 99.0%. -32.0

[stevdock]

Is this the first time the knuckleheads have been Sagarin top 25?

Unless they win out (or maybe even if they do) I expect to play them for our first game of the playoffs (assuming they win the play-in game). In the Big Sky they don't play EWU or Montana.

[Bison03]

Unless they win out (or maybe even if they do) I expect to play them for our first game of the playoffs (assuming they win the play-in game). In the Big Sky they don't play EWU or Montana.

Not a guarantee this year. The committee has said they will no longer regionalize early rounds of the payoffs. Also, with them not playing Montana or E. Washington; the committee would easily put them playing them. They say they try and avoid conference matchups, but have scheduled matchups potential matchups if the team haven't played each other that year.

[1993bison]

Irrelevant. It's hockey season.

I see the F'n Hawks played Canisius over the weekend. Is "Canisius" an STD, or was it a Roman general from the 1st century?
It's a Federal Prison in Quebec, oh wait, that's Quinnipiac.

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[MNLonghorn10]

So pelini has a better shot at beating ndsu than the rabbits? Did anyone notify thumper about this?

[bisonaudit]

Not a guarantee this year. The committee has said they will no longer regionalize early rounds of the payoffs. Also, with them not playing Montana or E. Washington; the committee would easily put them playing them. They say they try and avoid conference matchups, but have scheduled matchups potential matchups if the team haven't played each other that year.

Their modest changes to supposedly de-regionalize the tournament will do nothing to our chances of playing UND.

The two things they did were: 1) allow the committee to add a flight in order to prevent 4 teams from the same conference playing on the same side of the bracket, and 2) tell the committee to avoid regular season rematches the first weekend as long as it doesn't add a flight. Arguably these changes would increase the odds of us playing UND since they aren't in our conference and we didn't play them during the year; but since they're 70 miles up the road I'm not sure the odds could get any higher.

[THEsocalledfan]

Their modest changes to supposedly de-regionalize the tournament will do nothing to our chances of playing UND.

The two things they did were: 1) allow the committee to add a flight in order to prevent 4 teams from the same conference playing on the same side of the bracket, and 2) tell the committee to avoid regular season rematches the first weekend as long as it doesn't add a flight. Arguably these changes would increase the odds of us playing UND since they aren't in our conference and we didn't play them during the year; but since their 70 miles up the road I'm not sure the odds could get any higher.

Agree 100%. Honestly, with how soft their schedule is, I'll be shocked if we don't play in the Bison first game. (Unless UN_ chokes first round)

[Thumper 76]

So pelini has a better shot at beating ndsu than the rabbits? Did anyone notify thumper about this?

Yeah, oh well. I'm over it. Bet those numbers change after we rightfully take the Marker back


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[TransAmBison]

Yeah, oh well. I'm over it. Bet those numbers change after we rightfully take the Marker back


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk"Rightfully" take the Marker back? The Marker isn't a participation award that everybody gets...it has to be earned...which is why it stays in Fargo.

[Thumper 76]

"Rightfully" take the Marker back? The Marker isn't a participation award that everybody gets...it has to be earned...which is why it stays in Fargo.

Well yeah, cause this is our year. We decided apparently we need to pass to beat you guys.

Of course we've never "really" beat you guys according to bison fans. It's always been the refs or you beat yourselves. So there's that.


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[TransAmBison]

Well yeah, cause this is our year. We decided apparently we need to pass to beat you guys.

Of course we've never "really" beat you guys according to bison fans. It's always been the refs or you beat yourselves. So there's that.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkOr you've beaten us with a qb with a concussion.

[BisonHorns]

Thumper76 wth? I havent read the whole thread but you are coming off a little tense. Let's have the kids play the game and they will determine the results. I am sure you have a good team but they can prove it with or without your banter. If you want people to see it your way go to rabbitville.

[bri-dog]

Well yeah, cause this is our year. We decided apparently we need to pass to beat you guys.

Of course we've never "really" beat you guys according to bison fans. It's always been the refs or you beat yourselves. So there's that.


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At least North Dakotans don't jerk and drive. So there's that. :)

[X-Factor]

Well yeah, cause this is our year. We decided apparently we need to pass to beat you guys.

Of course we've never "really" beat you guys according to bison fans. It's always been the refs or you beat yourselves. So there's that.


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Gawd, if I had a nickel for every time I've heard a Jack fan spout that over the last decade...

The other one we hear?......"we are due". As if participation automatically entitles you to wins. LMFAO

[CaBisonFan]

Well yeah, cause this is our year. We decided apparently we need to pass to beat you guys.

Of course we've never "really" beat you guys according to bison fans. It's always been the refs or you beat yourselves. So there's that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We don't take turns.

[VirginiaBison]

There are no "byes" for the Bison. The Bison win because they are the best, not because of schedule ... you want to be the best, then you have to beat the best. In 5 years the Bison have been the best against all comers. The day will come when it will end, but not today! Not this year! Not with this senior class! See you all in Frisco Jan 2017.

[Thumper 76]

At least North Dakotans don't jerk and drive. So there's that. :)
That's cause you can't multi task

Gawd, if I had a nickel for every time I've heard a Jack fan spout that over the last decade...

The other one we hear?......"we are due". As if participation automatically entitles you to wins. LMFAO

You'd have, what, 50 cents?

And I'm not pregnant so I'm not due for anything ;)


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[CAS4127]

Some on here come across like FBS fans do to us during that particular week. SDSU has a legit chance to beat us, as do most MVFC teams. Why act so arrogant? Also, Thumper is a good shit and deserves a bit more respect, as do the Jacks.

All IMO of course.


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[Thumper 76]

Or you've beaten us with a qb with a concussion.
Wasn't that game both? It was pretty awesome though.

Thumper76 wth? I havent read the whole thread but you are coming off a little tense. Let's have the kids play the game and they will determine the results. I am sure you have a good team but they can prove it with or without your banter. If you want people to see it your way go to rabbitville.
Oh my, you are delicate. It's Marker Week. And just like any other I'll be around before and I'll stop by quickly after either way. But if you expect me to bow at the alter of the bison then you're sorely mistaken.



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[BisonHorns]

Wasn't that game both? It was pretty awesome though.

Oh my, you are delicate. It's Marker Week. And just like any other I'll be around before and I'll stop by quickly after either way. But if you expect me to bow at the alter of the bison then you're sorely mistaken.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The altar does have a lot of trophies on it. You do come across a bit rabid. You can purchase little plastic containers that have the days on the week so you dont forget your meds as often.

[MNLonghorn10]

Well yeah, cause this is our year. We decided apparently we need to pass to beat you guys.

Of course we've never "really" beat you guys according to bison fans. It's always been the refs or you beat yourselves. So there's that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I honestly dont even know what year it was the last time SDSU beat NDSU. 09? How do you know what NDSU fans said post game whether it was the refs or NDSU beat themselves...the bison were pretty mediocre those years so hard to beat themselves when they were never going to win the game anyways

[CAS4127]

I honestly dont even know what year it was the last time SDSU beat NDSU. 09? How do you know what NDSU fans said post game whether it was the refs or NDSU beat themselves...the bison were pretty mediocre those years so hard to beat themselves when they were never going to win the game anyways

I think we were ranked #1 and undefeated when they last beat us.


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[MNLonghorn10]

I think we were ranked #1 and undefeated when they last beat us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

that was 07, and they beat them in the Mertens years

[56BISON73]

that was 07, and they beat them in the Mertens years

Walker was the QB. They played in Brookings. The bunnys beat us in the trenches that day. Which was surprising because our Oline was great that year.

[MontBison]

Walker was the QB. They played in Brookings. The bunnys beat us in the trenches that day. Which was surprising because our Oline was great that year.

I'll never forgot that day. I thought for sure walker was going to work one final miracle or how about that 4 and 1 they stuffed rohl on. I remember when they broke the huddle he was bouncing around like he was going to run through the whole dam team if he need to get that yard. And then he didn't. Longest 2 hr car ride home ever.

[MNLonghorn10]

Walker was the QB. They played in Brookings. The bunnys beat us in the trenches that day. Which was surprising because our Oline was great that year.
And they won in 08 & 09. Nobody remembers what happened in those games besides thumper

[TransAmBison]

And they won in 08 & 09. Nobody remembers what happened in those games besides thumperBerry sure doesn't remember the win in the dome.

[SDbison]

Some on here come across like FBS fans do to us during that particular week. SDSU has a legit chance to beat us, as do most MVFC teams. Why act so arrogant? Also, Thumper is a good shit and deserves a bit more respect, as do the Jacks.

All IMO of course.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes, but you are a big Montana fan now and rarely go to Bison games so all your opinions are suspect.

[runtheoption]

I remember when we beat the USD Jackrabbits at Howard Wood Field in Sioux Falls. Stig and the boys should have stayed in Vermillion.

[Thumper 76]

Some on here come across like FBS fans do to us during that particular week. SDSU has a legit chance to beat us, as do most MVFC teams. Why act so arrogant? Also, Thumper is a good shit and deserves a bit more respect, as do the Jacks.

All IMO of course.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hey thanks :D. I expect to catch boatloads of crap when I come here though too, I don't need any special treatment. I'll see you guys on Saturday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Thumper 76]

The altar does have a lot of trophies on it. You do come across a bit rabid. You can purchase little plastic containers that have the days on the week so you dont forget your meds as often.

You think I'm competent enough to be left in charge of my own medication? You are sorely mistaken.....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[56BISON73]

I think we were ranked #1 and undefeated when they last beat us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There was talk amongst some very deluuuuuusional fans that if we won they were looking at us to go to a bowl game. :biggrin: No not the playoffs a freaking bowl game.

[1993bison]

There was talk amongst some very deluuuuuusional fans that if we won they were looking at us to go to a bowl game. :biggrin: No not the playoffs a freaking bowl game.
I think there was talk in the media about a chance?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[TransAmBison]

There was talk amongst some very deluuuuuusional fans that if we won they were looking at us to go to a bowl game. :biggrin: No not the playoffs a freaking bowl game.NDSU people were talking about it as well.

[SDbison]

NDSU people were talking about it as well. Just read some comments in a youtube video of the ndsu - iowa game where some B1G or Big 12 fan commented the Bison should be invited to a bowl game. So its still out there.

[SDbison]

I think we were ranked #1 and undefeated when they last beat us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk And your point is? I get it, you Griz fans are hoping for a Bison loss.

[1998braves64]

There was talk amongst some very deluuuuuusional fans that if we won they were looking at us to go to a bowl game. :biggrin: No not the playoffs a freaking bowl game.



Are bison fans (fanatics) ever in reality? I just assumed we're all in some form of delusion?! :biggrin:

I mean we spend thousands of dollars to go watch a bunch of teenage boys becoming men run at each other to try to get an air filled pigskin across a line...

[56BISON73]

I think there was talk in the media about a chance?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

There was no chance and the media knew it. But that doesnt stop them from stirring he pot.:biggrin:.

[56BISON73]

NDSU people were talking about it as well.

With the rumor started then NDSU was asked about it and then they had to respond.

[TransAmBison]

With the rumor started then NDSU was asked about it and then they had to respond.They could have squashed it...and they did no such thing. Don't take this as I thought it was going to happen...but I have to admit when NDSU people were talking about it I wondered if there was an outside chance. I realize how little respect FCS gets so that made it slim, but I believe that year there was a hard time finding enough FBS schools with enough wins to qualify. It was something fun going on during the transition when we had no chance to see if we could win it all.

[1993bison]

I heard there was a chance but whatever, we lost to the Wabbits.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[tony]

There was no chance and the media knew it. But that doesnt stop them from stirring he pot.:biggrin:.

There's a lot of "blah, blah, blah Bison fans are delusional" talk but I've noticed that the most outrageous comments about NDSU come from non-NDSU fans. Not sure that media guys in, say, Oklahoma or California are really trying to stir the pot when they say something over-the-top about NDSU.

Besides, to me the most delusional Bison fans are the ones who think that they are better playcallers than Polasek (any any Bison OC that NDSU has ever had.) :)

[CAS4127]

There's a lot of "blah, blah, blah Bison fans are delusional" talk but I've noticed that the most outrageous comments about NDSU come from non-NDSU fans. Not sure that media guys in, say, Oklahoma or California are really trying to stir the pot when they say something over-the-top about NDSU.

Besides, to me the most delusional Bison fans are the ones who think that they are better playcallers than Polasek (any any Bison OC that NDSU has ever had.) :)

Don't recall anyone say they think or are better a better playcaller. That said, he certainly leaves himself open to criticism at times with some head-scratching calls.. More delusional would be to think he's perfect and the next Belichick.


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[Hammersmith]

4 out of the top 5 Sag FCS are from the Valley. SDSU moved up to #2.


Sagarin's 2016 Week 8 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
53 North Dakota State 72.76
119 Charleston Southern 57.03 +18.15 +7.00 -11.15
Bye
86 Eastern Washington 64.76 +10.42 +6.00 -4.42
33 Iowa 78.89 -8.55 +2.00 +10.55
Bye
129 Illinois State 55.16 +20.02 +21.00 +0.98
166 Missouri State 46.61 +23.73 +24.00 +0.27
82 South Dakota State 65.20 +9.98 -2.00 -11.98
127 Western Illinois 55.55 +14.79
91 Northern Iowa 63.91 +6.43
87 Youngstown State 64.66 +10.52
176 Indiana State 45.56 +29.62
145 South Dakota 51.45 +18.89

138 Southern Illinois 52.59

Total Diff: -15.75
Home Field 2.42


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 53 72.76 North Dakota State
2 82 65.20 South Dakota State
3 86 64.76 Eastern Washington
4 87 64.66 Youngstown State
5 91 63.91 Northern Iowa
6 94 62.71 Montana
7 95 62.54 Jacksonville State
8 96 62.33 Chattanooga
9 104 59.78 Sam Houston State
10 105 59.51 James Madison
11 107 59.42 Richmond
12 112 58.35 Central Arkansas
13 115 57.53 The Citadel
14 116 57.10 Coastal Carolina
15 117 57.09 Cal Poly-SLO
16 119 57.03 Charleston Southern
17 121 56.31 Samford
18 126 55.70 Villanova
19 127 55.55 Western Illinois
20 129 55.16 Illinois State
21 131 54.22 North Dakota
22 133 53.91 Wofford
23 134 53.38 Lehigh
24 138 52.59 Southern Illinois
25 141 52.33 Northern Arizona


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.13 10
2 PAC-12 78.70 11
3 BIG 12 77.85 9
4 ACC 77.49 10
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.94 3
6 BIG TEN 72.53 9
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 68.97 4
8 MWC 60.96 2
9 MAC 59.44 3
10 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 57.10 1
11 MISSOURI VALLEY 56.99 1
12 SUN BELT 56.12 1
13 CONFERENCE USA 56.05 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.11 1
15 COLONIAL 47.45 1
16 BIG SKY 47.18 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.71 1
18 BIG SOUTH 42.86 1
19 IVY LEAGUE 41.07 1
20 PATRIOT 40.91 1
21 SOUTHLAND 39.42 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.22 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.84 1
24 SWAC 25.90 1
25 PIONEER 20.36 1

[THEsocalledfan]

Whenever I look at this thread, it reminds me:

1. MVFC is so much better than the rest of FCS, and even some G5 leagues.
2. The question really is will a team outside the valley ever win a title again!

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0. 0.0%. -43.1%
10-1 41.7%. +1.3%
9-2. 41.9% +27.9%
8-3. 14.3% +12.0%
7-4... 2.0%. +1.8%
6-5... 0.1%. +0.1%
5-6... 0.001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
@W Ill.. 86.3% -15.0 -3.0% +2.0
@UNI... 68.3%.. -6.5 -4.8% +2.0
v.YSU... 78.2% -10.5 -5.6% +3.0
v.Ind St 98.5% -29.5 -0.5% +2.5
@USD... 91.8% -19.0 -2.4% +2.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... @UNI... 68.3%.. -6.5
.... v.YSU... 78.2% -10.5
.... @W Ill.. 86.3% -15.0
.... @USD.. 91.8%. -19.0
.... v.Ind St 98.5%. -29.5

[bisonaudit]

Whenever I look at this thread, it reminds me:

1. MVFC is so much better than the rest of FCS, and even some G5 leagues.
2. The question really is will a team outside the valley ever win a title again!


If Sagarin Ratings determined the at-large bids, seedings and matchups the projected chance of an all MVFC final is about 1 in 3 and the projected chance of an MVFC team winning the tournament is about 75% right now.

Of course the MVFC isn't going to get as many teams into the tournament as Sagarin is currently projecting and the seeding and match ups will not be as favorable. So, of course a team from outside the valley will win another title, as they inevitably would even in the even if completely objective measures of team quality were employed in assembling the tournament field.

[No_Skill]

That loss really hurt our chances of going undefeated.

[bisonmike2]

That loss really hurt our chances of going undefeated.

Never say never.

[IzzyFlexion]

That loss really hurt our chances of going undefeated.

No big whoop.

College Gameday wont care.

They'll be here........................they'll be here.

[StL Bison Fan]

That loss really hurt our chances of going undefeated.

As long as we are undefeated in the playoffs...

[thebigund]

Whenever I look at this thread, it reminds me:

1. MVFC is so much better than the rest of FCS, and even some G5 leagues.

Best check that OOC record from this year against the fluffy ones.

[THEsocalledfan]

Best check that OOC record from this year against the fluffy ones.

Best check Sagarin. I know you don't get much math at UN_ since it is a liberal arts college, but please try to follow along.

[TransAmBison]

Best check Sagarin. I know you don't get much math at UN_ since it is a liberal arts college, but please try to follow along.I don't think you have much of an argument this year. Sure, our conference has the higher ranking on paper, but so far I believe head to head competition favors them this year.

[thebigund]

Best check Sagarin. I know you don't get much math at UN_ since it is a liberal arts college, but please try to follow along.

Sagarin is still weighted from last years OCC so live in the past you must.

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin is still weighted from last years OCC so live in the past you must.

6 weeks in; probably not.

[THEsocalledfan]

Sagarin is still weighted from last years OCC so live in the past you must.

Roasted by Audit. Love when undies is wrong!

[Christopher Moen]

Roasted by Audit. Love when undies is wrong!

But is he wrong if he doesn't realize he's wrong? Kind of like, how does a mole know he's blind?

[thebigund]

6 weeks in; probably not.

Then explain UNI.

[THEsocalledfan]

I don't think you have much of an argument this year. Sure, our conference has the higher ranking on paper, but so far I believe head to head competition favors them this year.

They have one top tier team. They have one other good team. They have one average team destined to be destroyed in Fargo. The rest is hot garbage as always. And their top tier team lost in Fargo, and needed trickery to beat UNI.

[THEsocalledfan]

Then explain UNI.

They beat a Big 12 school.

The lost to the only two decent teams in the sky. They lost to two teams in the Valley ON THE ROAD. (never shame losing close in the Valley outside of Indiana St. and Misery St.)

Are they the top of the Valley this year? No, but Sagarin has figured that out. They are still better than most of the Valley.

UNDies, I know you have trouble accepting how accurate Sagarin is each year. Just accept it and move on. If I did balloting, I will always just submit the Sagarin top 25 with few exceptions.

[MrSnuffleupagus]

They beat a Big 12 school.

The lost to the only two decent teams in the sky. They lost to two teams in the Valley ON THE ROAD. (never shame losing close in the Valley outside of Indiana St. and Misery St.)

Are they the top of the Valley this year? No, but Sagarin has figured that out. They are still better than most of the Valley.

UNDies, I know you have trouble accepting how accurate Sagarin is each year. Just accept it and move on. If I did balloting, I will always just submit the Sagarin top 25 with few exceptions.

Notice how USD isn't on that short list anymore. Good job, South Dakota!

[Grizzled]

Notice how USD isn't on that short list anymore. Good job, South Dakota!

That would blow up the argument.

[THEsocalledfan]

Notice how USD isn't on that short list anymore. Good job, South Dakota!

That team is clearly better. That is the difference in the Valley; USD is no where near a top tier team, yet they barely lost to a supposed elite sky team, and beat UNI.

[MrSnuffleupagus]

That team is clearly better. That is the difference in the Valley; USD is no where near a top tier team, yet they barely lost to a supposed elite sky team, and beat UNI.

And that's great. Honestly I have zero problems with the Yotes...aside from their horrible...'stadium?' Their fans seem vastly better than their counterparts a few hours north.

[StL Bison Fan]

And that's great. Honestly I have zero problems with the Yotes...aside from their horrible...'stadium?' Their fans seem vastly better than their counterparts a few hours north.

Outside of their ticket 'sales', I like USD

[bisonaudit]

Then explain UNI.

Difficult schedule and close losses. Same as it ever was. Humans have been selling them short for several years now because the evolutionary biases that have allowed us to survive and thrive as a species fail us when it comes to predicting the true talent of football teams. We pay way too much attention to not losing.

You should be heartened by the fact that Sagarin thinks UND is a playoff team at the moment.

[abc123]

They have one top tier team. They have one other good team. They have one average team destined to be destroyed in Fargo. The rest is hot garbage as always. And their top tier team lost in Fargo, and needed trickery to beat UNI.
Just curious where Cal Poly fits into your hierarchy. I mean they did steamroll the vaunted SDSU defense in Brookings to the tune of 600+ yards and 38 points, both right around double what NDSU was able to manage in the Fargodome. I assume SDSU is an elite MVFC team, so that must embarrassing to lose to a hot garbage Big Sky team at home.

The top tier Big Sky team missed a field goal at the end of regulation to win the game and had one of the best players in the FCS injured during the game. Seems like it was a pretty close match-up to me.

[THEsocalledfan]

Just curious where Cal Poly fits into your hierarchy. I mean they did steamroll the vaunted SDSU defense in Brookings to the tune of 600+ yards and 38 points, both right around double what NDSU was able to manage in the Fargodome. I assume SDSU is an elite MVFC team, so that must embarrassing to lose to a hot garbage Big Sky team at home.

The top tier Big Sky team missed a field goal at the end of regulation to win the game and had one of the best players in the FCS injured during the game. Seems like it was a pretty close match-up to me.

You are right. Big Sky has 1 elite team, 1 okay team, and 2 average teams. Rest is hot garbage. I do admit I forgot Cal Poly not being hot garbage.

[Mr. Burgundy]

Just curious where Cal Poly fits into your hierarchy. I mean they did steamroll the vaunted SDSU defense in Brookings to the tune of 600+ yards and 38 points, both right around double what NDSU was able to manage in the Fargodome. I assume SDSU is an elite MVFC team, so that must embarrassing to lose to a hot garbage Big Sky team at home.

The top tier Big Sky team missed a field goal at the end of regulation to win the game and had one of the best players in the FCS injured during the game. Seems like it was a pretty close match-up to me.

I agree with you, and if UND was on this streak against good teams, it would be very impressive and they would be looking at hosting a playoff game. They will not lose again, as they do not play a quality team coming up. You can try to spin it, but with the schedule the have this season, they couldn't lose early. Soft schedule kills schools on selection sunday.

[abc123]

I agree with you, and if UND was on this streak against good teams, it would be very impressive and they would be looking at hosting a playoff game. They will not lose again, as they do not play a quality team coming up. You can try to spin it, but with the schedule the have this season, they couldn't lose early. Soft schedule kills schools on selection sunday.
Massey has their SoS at 23rd and Sagarin has it at 44th bunched in with a ton of other teams. No one has argued it is the hardest schedule out there but far from a soft schedule. I'm sure it is a fun narrative though.

[THEsocalledfan]

Massey has their SoS at 23rd and Sagarin has it at 44th bunched in with a ton of other teams. No one has argued it is the hardest schedule out there but far from a soft schedule. I'm sure it is a fun narrative though.

You play the sky. By definition, soft.

[abc123]

You play the sky. By definition, soft.

4-3 OOC record against the MVFC with 2 of the losses coming in OT/2OT on the road and 5 of the 7 games being hosted by the MVFC team. Doesn't seem too bad to me.

[THEsocalledfan]

4-3 OOC record against the MVFC with 2 of the losses coming in OT/2OT on the road and 5 of the 7 games being hosted by the MVFC team. Doesn't seem too bad to me.

Lost out the wins and teams if you want me to show the fallacy of your argument. It will not be hard.

[stevdock]

4-3 OOC record against the MVFC with 2 of the losses coming in OT/2OT on the road and 5 of the 7 games being hosted by the MVFC team. Doesn't seem too bad to me.

What quality win do you have?? Yes you have wins but whats the best one??

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Massey has their SoS at 23rd and Sagarin has it at 44th bunched in with a ton of other teams. No one has argued it is the hardest schedule out there but far from a soft schedule. I'm sure it is a fun narrative though.


LOL at the Sioux fan becoming emboldened by winning a few games against crème puffs. Get back to me when you beat a decent team. Of the remaining teams on your schedule, only one has a winning record. Your SOS will fall as the season progresses.

[abc123]

Lost out the wins and teams if you want me to show the fallacy of your argument. It will not be hard.

How about this week's Sagarin ratings since that is what this thread is about:

Big Sky wins:
15 over 2 (at MVFC)
6 over 5 (at MVFC)
3 over 5 (at Big Sky)
21 over 26 (at Big Sky)

MVFC wins:
1 over 3 (OT, at MVFC)
19 over 25 (at MVFC)
26 over 50 (2OT, at MVFC)

[THEsocalledfan]

How about this week's Sagarin ratings since that is what this thread is about:

Big Sky wins:
15 over 2 (at MVFC)
6 over 5 (at MVFC)
3 over 5 (at Big Sky)
21 over 26 (at Big Sky)

MVFC wins:
1 over 3 (OT, at MVFC)
19 over 25 (at MVFC)
26 over 50 (2OT, at MVFC)

Yep, just as I thought. As the typical Big Sky fan fails to recognize, you completely omit all hot garbage from your post. The point every sky fan fails to recognize is your league is top heavy. Again, you have 1 elite team, 1 good team, and 2 average teams. The rest is hot garbage. (Northern Arizona is hot garbage.) South Dakota, probably the third worst team in the Valley could roll most of your teams outside the top 4.

[NDSU1980]

Massey has their SoS at 23rd and Sagarin has it at 44th bunched in with a ton of other teams. No one has argued it is the hardest schedule out there but far from a soft schedule. I'm sure it is a fun narrative though.

I remember bigund/geaux sioux coming here and BRAGGING about what an easy schedule you guys would be having this year. Now all of a sudden it's far from a soft schedule. Can't have it both ways.

[abc123]

Yep, just as I thought. As the typical Big Sky fan fails to recognize, you completely omit all hot garbage from your post. The point every sky fan fails to recognize is your league is top heavy. Again, you have 1 elite team, 1 good team, and 2 average teams. The rest is hot garbage. (Northern Arizona is hot garbage.) South Dakota, probably the third worst team in the Valley could roll most of your teams outside the top 4.
After claiming the Big Sky didn't have any quality wins, that is what you take from the post? Also, I'm not exactly sure how you come up with USD (who is ranked below 5 Big Sky teams) being able to easily roll anyone outside the top 4 when it took them 2OT to beat the 7th ranked team in the Big Sky in Vermillion.

[mtoutfitter]

After claiming the Big Sky didn't have any quality wins, that is what you take from the post? Also, I'm not exactly sure how you come up with USD (who is ranked below 5 Big Sky teams) being able to easily roll anyone outside the top 4 when it took them 2OT to beat the 7th ranked team in the Big Sky in Vermillion.

What about the question above......."What is your quality win"?

[abc123]

What about the question above......."What is your quality win"?
What exactly does UND have to do with any of it, other than indirectly. The conversation was about Big Sky/MVFC and how they fared against each other this year.

Since it is apparently important, UND's best two wins are against 15 and 26.

[bisonaudit]

Yep, just as I thought. As the typical Big Sky fan fails to recognize, you completely omit all hot garbage from your post. The point every sky fan fails to recognize is your league is top heavy. Again, you have 1 elite team, 1 good team, and 2 average teams. The rest is hot garbage. (Northern Arizona is hot garbage.) South Dakota, probably the third worst team in the Valley could roll most of your teams outside the top 4.

To me this is more about the 7th best team in the MVFC actually being very good than it is about the 4th best team in the Big Sky being hot garbage. Northern Arizona and South Dakota are, according to Sagarin, both within striking distance of an at-large playoff birth.

[Mr. Burgundy]

To me this is more about the 7th best team in the MVFC actually being very good than it is about the 4th best team in the Big Sky being hot garbage. Northern Arizona and South Dakota are, according to Sagarin, both with striking distance of an at-large playoff birth.

Last year UND beat one team with a winning record. That resume didn't help them on selection Sunday. This year, they again lack any SOS. They will win out, and people will again say, who did they beat. This is where the Big Sky kills them. Especially on a year when they don't play the two good teams. Nebraska hasn't played anyone, and most good fans realize that. But, unlike UND, they eventually do play a couple of good teams (Wisconsin and Ohio State).

Currently NDSU has wins over the #5 team, #6 team, #13 Team (FBS), #18 team, a loss to the #12 team, and now play at #13. That is based on what they were when they played the game. Not in the sense where you are hoping a team like Stoney Brook ends up ranked at the end of the year.

......do you want to face a 6-5 UNI team in the playoffs?

[Christopher Moen]

......do you want to face a 6-5 UNI team in the playoffs?


I would rather deal with that than deal with a 3-4 UNI team at their home in the regular season. A lot of MVFC teams already fighting for their playoff lives.

[bisonaudit]

......do you want to face a 6-5 UNI team in the playoffs?

No. But I was under the impression that the idea was for the NCAA to reward the best teams rather than pave the road between Fargo and Frisco.

[thebigund]

What about the question above......."What is your quality win"?

Poly..........

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Poly..........


Well played, douchenozzle, well played............

[yellowstreak]

23-Oct-2016

- 34 Iowa 5-3
1 57 North Dakota State 6-1
2 77 Northern Iowa ???? 3-4
3 79 South Dakota State 5-2
4 83 Eastern Washington 6-1
5 89 Youngstown State 5-2
6 92 Jacksonville State 6-1
7 101 Chattanooga 7-1
8 102 Montana 5-2
9 104 Richmond 7-1
10 107 James Madison 6-1
11 108 Sam Houston State 7-0
12 112 Central Arkansas 6-1
13 115 Charleston Southern 4-2
14 117 The Citadel 7-0
15 123 Western Illinois 5-2
16 124 Villanova 6-2
17 125 Cal Poly-SLO 5-2
18 126 Samford 6-1
19 128 Lehigh 6-2
20 129 Coastal Carolina 5-2
21 131 Northern Arizona 4-4
22 132 Illinois State 3-5
23 136 Liberty 4-3
24 137 Nameless 6-2
25 138 Wofford 4-3
-- 142 South Dakota 4-3
-- 160 Indiana State 4-4
-- 184 Missouri State 3-4

[MNLonghorn10]

how in the flying fuck does UNI stay pat after having all of those shitty losses while NDSU wins and still drops?

[bisonaudit]

how in the flying fuck does UNI stay pat after having all of those shitty losses while NDSU wins and still drops?

Because they won by 50 something when the model thought they should win by probably 20 something and NDSU won by 8 when the model was expecting 15.

Also, not sure their losses were shitty.

It's not about W and L it's about the margin.

[MNLonghorn10]

Because they won by 50 something when the model thought they should win by probably 20 something and NDSU won by 8 when the model was expecting 15.

Also, not sure their losses were shitty.

It's not about W and L it's about the margin.

Yea i get that..but 4 losses would obviously= to 4 times being negative to the margin and I cant imagine they've played against many teams that have been higher than they have.

Im not going to argue that the formula is wrong, but it seems weird that a 4 loss FCS team is still the 2nd highest ranked FCS team around.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 9 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
57 North Dakota State 72.11
115 Charleston Southern 57.38 +17.15 +7.00 -10.15
Bye
83 Eastern Washington 65.75 +8.78 +6.00 -2.78
34 Iowa 78.79 -9.10 +2.00 +11.10
Bye
132 Illinois State 54.50 +20.03 +21.00 +0.97
184 Missouri State 43.82 +25.87 +24.00 -1.87
79 South Dakota State 66.10 +8.43 -2.00 -10.43
123 Western Illinois 56.24 +13.45 +8.00 -5.45
77 Northern Iowa 66.52 +3.17
89 Youngstown State 64.03 +10.50
160 Indiana State 47.05 +27.48
142 South Dakota 52.73 +16.96

148 Southern Illinois 51.11

Total Diff: -18.61
Home Field 2.42


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 57 72.11 North Dakota State
2 77 66.52 Northern Iowa
3 79 66.10 South Dakota State
4 83 65.75 Eastern Washington
5 89 64.03 Youngstown State
6 92 63.56 Jacksonville State
7 101 61.11 Chattanooga
8 102 60.97 Montana
9 104 59.92 Richmond
10 107 59.32 James Madison
11 108 59.08 Sam Houston State
12 112 58.10 Central Arkansas
13 115 57.38 Charleston Southern
14 117 57.25 The Citadel
15 123 56.24 Western Illinois
16 124 55.96 Villanova
17 125 55.83 Cal Poly-SLO
18 126 55.67 Samford
19 128 55.28 Lehigh
20 129 55.18 Coastal Carolina
21 131 54.83 Northern Arizona
22 132 54.50 Illinois State
23 136 53.56 Liberty
24 137 53.50 North Dakota
25 138 53.21 Wofford


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 79.67 11
2 PAC-12 78.86 11
3 BIG 12 77.82 9
4 ACC 77.14 10
5 BIG TEN 72.65 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 72.38 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.30 6
8 MWC 61.77 3
9 MAC 59.55 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.18 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 56.35 1
12 SUN BELT 56.32 1
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 55.18 1
14 BIG SKY 47.60 1
15 SOUTHERN 47.57 1
16 COLONIAL 47.19 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 44.65 1
18 BIG SOUTH 43.06 1
19 IVY LEAGUE 40.65 1
20 PATRIOT 40.54 1
21 SOUTHLAND 39.45 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.91 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.79 1
24 SWAC 25.63 1
25 PIONEER 20.65 1

[RadioBison]

Yea i get that..but 4 losses would obviously= to 4 times being negative to the margin and I cant imagine they've played against many teams that have been higher than they have.

Im not going to argue that the formula is wrong, but it seems weird that a 4 loss FCS team is still the 2nd highest ranked FCS team around.

The losses to EWU and YSU didn't cost them too much. The losses to USD and Montana did, but they made up for most of that yesterday against MSU. They are just about even with where they started.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
10-1 40.6%. -1.1%
9-2. 44.9%. +2.9%
8-3. 13.4%. -0.9%
7-4... 1.2%. -0.8%
6-5... 0.02% -0.1%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
@UNI... 59.3%.. -3.0 -9.0% +3.5
v.YSU... 78.2% -10.5. 0.0%.. 0.0
v.Ind St 97.8% -27.5 -0.7% +2.0
@USD.. 89.5% -17.0 -2.3% +2.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... @UNI... 59.3%.. -3.0
.... v.YSU... 78.2% -10.5
.... @USD.. 89.5%. -17.0
.... v.Ind St 97.8% -27.5

[Hammersmith]

Audit's numbers will be interesting this week. UNI was the hump between 10-1 and 9-2. Should see a massive swing toward 10-1 now.

Sagarin was amazing accurate this week for NDSU/UNI. In fact, Sagarin has been very consistent for most of the games. 8/8 have been within 2 TDs, 5/8 have been within 1 TD, and 4/8 have been within a FG. (looking at it retroactively, not using the prediction of the week)

Anyway, here's week 10.

Sagarin's 2016 Week 10 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
56 North Dakota State 72.32
120 Charleston Southern 56.61 +18.15 +7.00 -11.15
Bye
77 Eastern Washington 66.98 +7.78 +6.00 -1.78
33 Iowa 79.14 -9.26 +2.00 +11.26
Bye
119 Illinois State 56.63 +18.13 +21.00 +2.87
176 Missouri State 44.89 +24.99 +24.00 -0.99
93 South Dakota State 63.11 +11.65 -2.00 -13.65
121 Western Illinois 56.16 +13.72 +8.00 -5.72
83 Northern Iowa 66.27 +3.61 +4.00 +0.39
95 Youngstown State 62.60 +12.16
159 Indiana State 48.48 +26.28
143 South Dakota 52.80 +17.08

150 Southern Illinois 50.16

Total Diff: -18.77
Home Field 2.44


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 56 72.32 North Dakota State
2 77 66.98 Eastern Washington
3 83 66.27 Northern Iowa
4 86 64.46 Jacksonville State
5 93 63.11 South Dakota State
6 95 62.60 Youngstown State
7 97 62.36 James Madison
8 102 60.92 Chattanooga
9 103 60.06 Central Arkansas
10 104 60.01 Sam Houston State
11 105 59.96 Montana
12 106 59.73 Richmond
13 113 57.80 The Citadel
14 118 56.64 Samford
15 119 56.63 Illinois State
16 120 56.61 Charleston Southern
17 121 56.16 Western Illinois
18 124 55.81 Villanova
19 127 55.56 Lehigh
20 128 55.44 Coastal Carolina
21 131 54.77 Northern Arizona
22 134 54.39 Cal Poly-SLO
23 137 53.66 Wofford
24 139 53.15 North Dakota
25 141 52.94 Liberty


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 79.36 11
2 PAC-12 78.85 11
3 BIG 12 77.51 9
4 ACC 76.79 10
5 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.34 3
6 BIG TEN 73.26 9
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.43 4
8 MWC 61.82 3
9 MAC 59.24 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.07 1
11 SUN BELT 56.42 1
12 CONFERENCE USA 56.06 2
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 55.44 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.14 1
15 BIG SKY 47.50 1
16 COLONIAL 47.18 1
17 OHIO VALLEY 43.97 1
18 BIG SOUTH 43.60 1
19 PATRIOT 40.30 1
20 IVY LEAGUE 40.27 1
21 SOUTHLAND 39.48 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.63 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.86 1
24 SWAC 25.10 1
25 PIONEER 20.62 1

[IzzyFlexion]

Northern Iowa's 3-5 record incredibly keeps them at #83. Amazing for an FCS school.
Quite a few FBS teams above them with the same or worse records.

Really an eye grabber that Iowa State (#84) is one click below UNI at 1-7!!

The next team listed at 1-7 is Kansas at #140.

[Mr Meaty]

Northern Iowa's 3-5 record incredibly keeps them at #83. Amazing for an FCS school.
Quite a few FBS teams above them with the same or worse records.

Really an eye grabber that Iowa State (#84) is one click below UNI at 1-7!!

The next team listed at 1-7 is Kansas at #140.

UNI SOS is helping Iowa st out right now.

[unbison]

Northern Iowa's 3-5 record incredibly keeps them at #83. Amazing for an FCS school.
Quite a few FBS teams above them with the same or worse records.

Really an eye grabber that Iowa State (#84) is one click below UNI at 1-7!!

The next team listed at 1-7 is Kansas at #140.
Makes a person snicker at these rankings

[Gully]

Makes a person snicker at these rankings

Another way to look at it is that records are overrated when considering how well a team does. It's really about performance relative to others if what you're looking for is a good prediction of outcomes.

[bisonaudit]

Another way to look at it is that records are overrated when considering how good a team does. It's really about performance relative to others if what you're looking for is a good prediction of outcomes.

shhhhhhhh. Dumb money alert. Don't let them in on the 'secret'.

[Hammersmith]

For the sake of argument, here is the UNI version of what I do for NDSU. What I notice is that outside of 3 games, UNI plays close to the prediction. The thing is that their margin was so thin for many of their games, that it don't take much for them to be on the wrong end. Four of their predictions were within a TD, and one was just a bit more. In these close predicted games, they came out on the right side for Iowa State, but the wrong side for EWU, YSU & NDSU. For their ability, they only had two bad games; Montana and USD. In both of those they underperformed by 2 TDs. If they played exactly to Sag predictions, they'd be 5-3 with losses to Iowa St, EWU & NDSU.


Sagarin's 2016 Week 10 Prediction (UNI)


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
83 Northern Iowa 66.27
84 Iowa State 65.71 -1.88 +5.00 +6.88
105 Montana 59.96 +8.75 -6.00 -14.75
77 Eastern Washington 66.98 -3.15 -4.00 -0.85
150 Southern Illinois 50.16 +18.55 +21.00 +2.45
143 South Dakota 52.80 +11.03 -3.00 -14.03
95 Youngstown State 62.60 +1.23 -4.00 -5.23
176 Missouri State 44.89 +23.82 +54.00 +30.18
56 North Dakota State 72.32 -3.61 -4.00 -0.39
159 Indiana State 48.48 +15.35
121 Western Illinois 56.16 +7.67
93 South Dakota State 63.11 +5.60

Total Diff: +4.26
Home Field 2.44

[THEsocalledfan]

Another way to look at it is that records are overrated when considering how well a team does. It's really about performance relative to others if what you're looking for is a good prediction of outcomes.

Yep, this has always been the accurate way to look at things. Great example is I thought AP top 25 talk was silly for this team, but I am still passed 2013 team was not in top 25. Shows the farce of most polls.

[RadioBison]

Sagarin was amazing accurate this week for NDSU/UNI. In fact, Sagarin has been very consistent for most of the games. 8/8 have been within 2 TDs, 5/8 have been within 1 TD, and 4/8 have been within a FG. (looking at it retroactively, not using the prediction of the week)



I may be slightly off here, but I have Rating predicting at 75.68% this week, with a standard deviation of 15.9. If I apply them retroactively this week, the numbers don't change too much, at 79.28% and 13.1. I was expecting more of a swing based on my system, but I guess not.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
10-1 71.2% +30.6%
9-2.. 26.3% -18.6%
8-3... 2.5%. -10.8%
7-4... 0.1%.. -1.1%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.YSU... 81.6% -12.0 +3.4%. -1.5
v.Ind St 97.3% -26.5. -0.5% +1.0
@USD.. 89.6% -17.0 +0.1%.. 0.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... v.YSU... 81.6% -12.0
.... @USD.. 89.6%. -17.0
.... v.Ind St 97.3% -26.5

[Bison 4 Life]

Does the above take into account the harvest helmet factor? I think that's worth at least 10 pts

[THEsocalledfan]

Math/science make me happy. If anyone is ambitious, it would be fun to go back to 2011 and see how this team compares. Season is reminding me so much of that year.

[Professor Chaos]

Math/science make me happy. If anyone is ambitious, it would be fun to go back to 2011 and see how this team compares. Season is reminding me so much of that year.
Hopefully the YSU game turns out differently this year...

[bisonaudit]

Math/science make me happy. If anyone is ambitious, it would be fun to go back to 2011 and see how this team compares. Season is reminding me so much of that year.

At this point in the season in 2011 NDSU was 8-0 Sagarin: #1 FCS, #59 overall 71.24. That's the Predictor column. Today's Predictor column we're 7-1 #1 #59 71.85.

[THEsocalledfan]

At this point in the season in 2011 NDSU was 8-0 Sagarin: #1 FCS, #59 overall 71.24. That's the Predictor column. Today's Predictor column we're 7-1 #1 #59 71.85.

WOW! Remarkably the same. Yes, we had not lost yet, but very similar in ranking which is exactly how this team feels. We are very close to when they team typically "flips the switch" into PO mode. Let's hope it comes soon.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 11 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
55 North Dakota State 73.45
136 Charleston Southern 53.90 +21.95 +7.00 -14.95
Bye
66 Eastern Washington 69.55 +6.30 +6.00 -0.30
39 Iowa 76.96 -5.91 +2.00 +7.91
Bye
120 Illinois State 56.54 +19.31 +21.00 +1.69
173 Missouri State 45.54 +25.51 +24.00 -1.51
90 South Dakota State 63.45 +12.40 -2.00 -14.40
126 Western Illinois 55.70 +15.35 +8.00 -7.35
76 Northern Iowa 66.99 +4.06 +4.00 -0.06
98 Youngstown State 61.69 +14.16 +21.00 +6.84
159 Indiana State 46.75 +29.10
145 South Dakota 51.92 +19.13

147 Southern Illinois 50.61

Total Diff: -22.13
Home Field 2.40


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 55 73.45 North Dakota State
2 66 69.55 Eastern Washington
3 76 66.99 Northern Iowa
4 88 63.78 James Madison
5 89 63.52 Jacksonville State
6 90 63.45 South Dakota State
7 98 61.69 Youngstown State
8 103 60.88 Chattanooga
9 104 60.79 Central Arkansas
10 105 59.71 Montana
11 106 59.22 Sam Houston State
12 107 58.89 Richmond
13 108 58.80 The Citadel
14 113 57.27 Samford
15 118 56.75 Villanova
16 120 56.54 Illinois State
17 125 55.70 Coastal Carolina
18 126 55.70 Western Illinois
19 128 55.35 Lehigh
20 129 55.26 Northern Arizona
21 131 54.47 Wofford
22 132 54.36 Cal Poly-SLO
23 135 53.95 North Dakota
24 136 53.90 Charleston Southern
25 138 53.58 Princeton


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 79.12 10
2 PAC-12 78.76 10
3 BIG 12 77.19 9
4 ACC 76.46 9
5 BIG TEN 72.55 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 71.65 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.90 6
8 MWC 62.04 3
9 MAC 59.04 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 56.81 1
11 SUN BELT 56.49 1
12 CONFERENCE USA 55.78 2
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 55.70 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.21 1
15 BIG SKY 47.60 1
16 COLONIAL 46.99 1
17 BIG SOUTH 43.99 1
18 OHIO VALLEY 43.19 1
19 PATRIOT 39.81 1
20 SOUTHLAND 39.25 1
21 IVY LEAGUE 39.10 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.25 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.44 1
24 SWAC 24.63 1
25 PIONEER 20.70 1

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
10-1 90.6% +19.4%
9-2... 9.3%. -17.0%
8-3... 0.1%... -2.4%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.Ind St 98.4% -29.0 +1.1% -2.5
@USD.. 92.1% -19.0 +2.5% -2.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... @USD.. 92.1% -19.0
.... v.Ind St 98.4% -29.0

[Hammerhead]

Math/science make me happy. If anyone is ambitious, it would be fun to go back to 2011 and see how this team compares. Season is reminding me so much of that year.

I have the Sagarin ratings for each week from every season going back about 10 years if anyone wants them. There might be a couple of weeks missing when we were on vacation and I forgot to copy the text from the website.

[FCS Nation]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 11 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
55 North Dakota State 73.45
136 Charleston Southern 53.90 +21.95 +7.00 -14.95
Bye
66 Eastern Washington 69.55 +6.30 +6.00 -0.30
39 Iowa 76.96 -5.91 +2.00 +7.91
Bye
120 Illinois State 56.54 +19.31 +21.00 +1.69
173 Missouri State 45.54 +25.51 +24.00 -1.51
90 South Dakota State 63.45 +12.40 -2.00 -14.40
126 Western Illinois 55.70 +15.35 +8.00 -7.35
76 Northern Iowa 66.99 +4.06 +4.00 -0.06
98 Youngstown State 61.69 +14.16 +21.00 +6.84
159 Indiana State 46.75 +29.10
145 South Dakota 51.92 +19.13

147 Southern Illinois 50.61

Total Diff: -22.13
Home Field 2.40


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 55 73.45 North Dakota State
2 66 69.55 Eastern Washington
3 76 66.99 Northern Iowa
4 88 63.78 James Madison
5 89 63.52 Jacksonville State
6 90 63.45 South Dakota State
7 98 61.69 Youngstown State
8 103 60.88 Chattanooga
9 104 60.79 Central Arkansas
10 105 59.71 Montana
11 106 59.22 Sam Houston State
12 107 58.89 Richmond
13 108 58.80 The Citadel
14 113 57.27 Samford
15 118 56.75 Villanova
16 120 56.54 Illinois State
17 125 55.70 Coastal Carolina
18 126 55.70 Western Illinois
19 128 55.35 Lehigh
20 129 55.26 Northern Arizona
21 131 54.47 Wofford
22 132 54.36 Cal Poly-SLO
23 135 53.95 North Dakota
24 136 53.90 Charleston Southern
25 138 53.58 Princeton


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 79.12 10
2 PAC-12 78.76 10
3 BIG 12 77.19 9
4 ACC 76.46 9
5 BIG TEN 72.55 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 71.65 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.90 6
8 MWC 62.04 3
9 MAC 59.04 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 56.81 1
11 SUN BELT 56.49 1
12 CONFERENCE USA 55.78 2
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 55.70 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.21 1
15 BIG SKY 47.60 1
16 COLONIAL 46.99 1
17 BIG SOUTH 43.99 1
18 OHIO VALLEY 43.19 1
19 PATRIOT 39.81 1
20 SOUTHLAND 39.25 1
21 IVY LEAGUE 39.10 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.25 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.44 1
24 SWAC 24.63 1
25 PIONEER 20.70 1


DAMN the Southland is rated lower than the Patsy league...

[oldmantutters]

DAMN the Southland is rated lower than the Patsy league...
And has two ranked teams according to the newest nobowls.com bracket.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[SoCalBison]

Bison hold at #55 this week. Iowa is at 31 after beating Michigan. Need the Hawkeyes to finish strong next week so we regain our top 30 win.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 12 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
55 North Dakota State 73.22
124 Charleston Southern 55.89 +19.62 +7.00 -12.62
Bye
69 Eastern Washington 68.76 +6.75 +6.00 -0.75
31 Iowa 78.93 -8.00 +2.00 +10.00
Bye
107 Illinois State 58.41 +17.10 +21.00 +3.90
183 Missouri State 43.03 +27.90 +24.00 -3.90
90 South Dakota State 63.04 +12.47 -2.00 -14.47
126 Western Illinois 55.59 +15.34 +8.00 -7.34
76 Northern Iowa 66.52 +4.41 +4.00 -0.41
98 Youngstown State 61.54 +13.97 +21.00 +7.03
165 Indiana State 46.73 +28.78 +24.00 -4.78
143 South Dakota 52.45 +18.48

146 Southern Illinois 50.63

Total Diff: -23.34

Home Field 2.29


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 55 73.22 North Dakota State
2 69 68.76 Eastern Washington
3 76 66.52 Northern Iowa
4 81 64.68 James Madison
5 89 63.23 Jacksonville State
6 90 63.04 South Dakota State
7 98 61.54 Youngstown State
8 103 59.64 Sam Houston State
9 104 59.36 Central Arkansas
10 105 58.88 Chattanooga
11 106 58.75 Richmond
12 107 58.41 Illinois State
13 109 57.84 The Citadel
14 110 57.64 Montana
15 120 56.21 Samford
16 121 56.06 Wofford
17 122 55.92 Villanova
18 124 55.89 Charleston Southern
19 126 55.59 Western Illinois
20 128 55.45 Lehigh
21 129 54.83 North Dakota
22 130 54.81 Coastal Carolina
23 133 54.59 Princeton
24 134 54.44 Northern Arizona
25 142 52.52 Cal Poly-SLO


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 79.07 10
2 PAC-12 79.02 8
3 BIG 12 77.20 9
4 ACC 76.83 10
5 BIG TEN 72.76 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 71.89 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.73 7
8 MWC 61.87 3
9 MAC 58.92 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 56.99 1
11 SUN BELT 56.60 1
12 CONFERENCE USA 55.64 2
13 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 54.81 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.30 1
15 BIG SKY 47.49 1
16 COLONIAL 46.58 1
17 BIG SOUTH 43.74 1
18 OHIO VALLEY 42.90 1
19 PATRIOT 39.90 1
20 IVY LEAGUE 39.05 1
21 SOUTHLAND 38.73 1
22 NORTHEAST 35.79 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.11 1
24 SWAC 24.40 1
25 PIONEER 20.25 1

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
10-1 91.4% +0.8%
9-2... 8.6%. -0.7%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
@USD 91.4% -18.5 -0.7% +0.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
.... @USD 92.1% -19.0

[Hammersmith]

Will update somewhat after the bracket is released. Seems pretty clear that there's no bonus for a top-30 win. Those columns must just be for informational purposes.

Sagarin's 2016 Round 1 Prediction


Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
56 North Dakota State 72.70
112 Charleston Southern 57.19 +17.86 +7.00 -10.86
Bye
72 Eastern Washington 67.55 +7.50 +6.00 -1.50
29 Iowa 80.56 -10.21 +2.00 +12.21
Bye
104 Illinois State 58.72 +16.33 +21.00 +4.67
189 Missouri State 41.37 +28.98 +24.00 -4.98
81 South Dakota State 65.14 +9.91 -2.00 -11.91
132 Western Illinois 54.56 +15.79 +8.00 -7.79
83 Northern Iowa 64.68 +5.67 +4.00 -1.67
89 Youngstown State 63.22 +11.83 +21.00 +9.17
169 Indiana State 46.77 +28.28 +24.00 -4.28
140 South Dakota 53.31 +17.04 +7.00 -10.04

146 Southern Illinois 51.59

Total Diff: -26.98
Home Field 2.35


Sagarin FCS Top-25


Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 56 72.70 North Dakota State
2 72 67.55 Eastern Washington
3 80 65.31 James Madison
4 81 65.14 South Dakota State
5 83 64.68 Northern Iowa
6 84 64.22 Jacksonville State
7 89 63.22 Youngstown State
8 94 62.52 Sam Houston State
9 101 60.38 Chattanooga
10 104 58.72 Illinois State
11 107 57.68 The Citadel
12 108 57.62 Villanova
13 109 57.45 Central Arkansas
14 112 57.19 Charleston Southern
15 114 57.17 Coastal Carolina
16 116 56.81 Wofford
17 120 56.17 Lehigh
18 121 56.03 Richmond
19 126 55.40 North Dakota
20 127 55.33 Montana
21 128 54.97 Princeton
22 132 54.56 Western Illinois
23 137 54.15 Samford
24 140 53.31 South Dakota
25 142 52.76 Cal Poly-SLO


Sagarin Conference Ranking


Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 PAC-12 78.94 9
2 SEC 78.30 10
3 ACC 76.91 10
4 BIG 12 76.90 8
5 BIG TEN 73.24 10
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 72.12 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 69.94 7
8 MWC 62.27 3
9 MAC 59.04 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 57.31 1
11 I-AA INDEPENDENTS 57.17 1
12 SUN BELT 56.67 1
13 CONFERENCE USA 55.81 2
14 SOUTHERN 48.67 1
15 BIG SKY 48.07 1
16 COLONIAL 46.65 1
17 BIG SOUTH 43.45 1
18 OHIO VALLEY 43.24 1
19 PATRIOT 40.16 1
20 IVY LEAGUE 39.09 1
21 SOUTHLAND 38.88 1
22 NORTHEAST 36.32 1
23 MID-EASTERN 27.12 1
24 SWAC 25.16 1
25 PIONEER 20.45 1

[SoCalBison]

Bison slip 1 spot to 56 this week, despite the Iowa win again counting as a top 30 victory.

[MNLonghorn10]

yet UNI loses by 20 at home and only drops 7 spots

[Hammersmith]

yet UNI loses by 20 at home and only drops 7 spots

For this time of year, 7 spots is a lot.

[MNLonghorn10]

For this time of year, 7 spots is a lot.

with 6 losses and to be ranked third is a testament ot the rest of FCS then, huh

[Hammersmith]

with 6 losses and to be ranked third is a testament ot the rest of FCS then, huh

It's more like an unlucky team. It's something Pomeroy(MBB rankings) actually has a column for. Sagarin predictions basically have a +/- 7pt margin for error. Law of averages would expect a team to break even on those margins. UNI has seemed to be an unlucky team and come out on the wrong end of those margins at the wrong times(when the margin leads to a loss).

Why does it happen? Good question. Is it play calling in tight games? Is it players playing poorly under pressure? Is it just bad luck? Unknown. But UNI is a better team than their record indicates. Just like other teams might be worse than their records indicate.

[THEsocalledfan]

It's more like an unlucky team. It's something Pomeroy(MBB rankings) actually has a column for. Sagarin predictions basically have a +/- 7pt margin for error. Law of averages would expect a team to break even on those margins. UNI has seemed to be an unlucky team and come out on the wrong end of those margins at the wrong times(when the margin leads to a loss).

Why does it happen? Good question. Is it play calling in tight games? Is it players playing poorly under pressure? Is it just bad luck? Unknown. But UNI is a better team than their record indicates. Just like other teams might be worse than their records indicate.

I agree with Hammer 100%. UNI is way better than their record. I think Sagarin has them about in the right spot ending the year. Always thought they were just a bit high until now.

[TransAmBison]

I agree with Hammer 100%. UNI is way better than their record. I think Sagarin has them about in the right spot ending the year. Always thought they were just a bit high until now.I don't think so this year...too many losses. They match up so well with us, but even USD beat them.

[THEsocalledfan]

I don't think so this year...too many losses. They match up so well with us, but even USD beat them.

USD is a decent team this year. You are falling into the Big Sky fan trap of forgetting how tough Valley play is.

[Bisonator98]

USD is a decent team this year. You are falling into the Big Sky fan trap of forgetting how tough Valley play is.

This years UNI team was the weakest I've seen in a long time, maybe ever. Their dline got manhandled and their offense was pathetic as usual. Farley should be fired over the way he has handled the offense the last several years. They are not a good team this season.

[THEsocalledfan]

This years UNI team was the weakest I've seen in a long time, maybe ever. Their dline got manhandled and their offense was pathetic as usual. Farley should be fired over the way he has handled the offense the last several years. They are not a good team this season.

I completely agree. But they are still better than most of the playoff field. That is how bad other conferences are.

[TransAmBison]

USD is a decent team this year. You are falling into the Big Sky fan trap of forgetting how tough Valley play is.No, they are not. Saying so makes us feel good, but it just isn't true.

[grizlandbisonfan]

I agree with Hammer 100%. UNI is way better than their record. I think Sagarin has them about in the right spot ending the year. Always thought they were just a bit high until now.

I think we want (need?) UNI to be this great team to help our own narrative and support our own credibility. In the last 5 years, UNI has finished the season with at least 5 losses every single year... 27 losses in 5 years! They've made the playoffs twice in that time period. That is the resume of a very mediocre team.

It seems to me that we want UNI to be a juggernaut so badly that we make excuses for them being a mediocre team, year after year after year. I think we psych ourselves out playing them.

[IzzyFlexion]

Being in the top 100 with a losing record has likely never before been achieved by an FCS school.

Interesting to me that the next highest ranking for an FCS team with a losing record is #140 (4-6)......................................South Dakota.

[Christopher Moen]

The UNI team that plays NDSU is far different than the UNI team that plays anyone else.


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[bisonaudit]

I think we want (need?) UNI to be this great team to help our own narrative and support our own credibility. In the last 5 years, UNI has finished the season with at least 5 losses every single year... 27 losses in 5 years! They've made the playoffs twice in that time period. That is the resume of a very mediocre team.

It seems to me that we want UNI to be a juggernaut so badly that we make excuses for them being a mediocre team, year after year after year. I think we psych ourselves out playing them.

I don't think that Sagarin or Massey or the NCAA's SRS give a shit about our narrative.

[Bisonator98]

The UNI team that plays NDSU is far different than the UNI team that plays anyone else.


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Much like the posers up north. Beat the Bison and your season is a success. Hell they even rush the field. :facepalm:

[THEsocalledfan]

No, they are not. Saying so makes us feel good, but it just isn't true.

They have a completely legit QB....one of the best we've seen. They had numerous games slip away at the end. You think UND really is much better than them? Seriously?

[TransAmBison]

They have a completely legit QB....one of the best we've seen. They had numerous games slip away at the end. You think UND really is much better than them? Seriously?No. I don't think either of them are good teams.

[THEsocalledfan]

No. I don't think either of them are good teams.

And my comment was UNI is better than most teams in the playoffs. UND is a 7 seed from cripes sake.

I think you doth forget just how crappy most FCS teams are.

[TransAmBison]

And my comment was UNI is better than most teams in the playoffs. UND is a 7 seed from cripes sake.

I think you doth forget just how crappy most FCS teams are.There is truth in that...

[THEsocalledfan]

There is truth in that...

I don't mean to be negative, but even NDSU is really not NDSU this year. Not even sure they are as good as 2011.....if they had less injuries, perhaps I would think they were better. I still get a kick out of Iowa being so stubborn that they didn't just allow Bethard destroy us in the second half.

[bisonaudit]

Team.............................. Rd1..... Rd2..... Qtr.. Semi... Final

72.70 (1) North Dakota State....... 97.2% 76.8% 61.1% 43.7%
52.76 Cal Poly-SLO.......... 71.9%.. 2.4%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%. 0.0%
47.27 San Diego.............. 28.1%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

65.14 (8) South Dakota State...... 84.0%. 20.9% 10.2%. 5.2%
57.62 Villanova............... 87.7%. 15.6%.. 1.8%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
44.23 Saint Francis-Pa. .... 12.3%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%


62.52 (5) Sam Houston State....... 73.0% 29.3%.. 7.5%. 3.3%
60.38 Chattanooga........... 87.0% 26.0%.. 9.0%.. 1.6%. 0.6%
47.47 Weber State........... 13.0%.. 0.9%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

65.31 (4) James Madison............ 88.2%. 58.7% 18.7%. 9.7%
50.48 New Hampshire...... 40.2%.. 2.9%.. 0.5%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
56.17 Lehigh................... 59.8%.. 8.9%.. 2.5%.. 0.3%. 0.1%



64.22 (3) Jacksonville State........ 71.0%. 53.3% 24.2%. 8.6%
63.22 Youngstown State.... 80.1% 26.4% 16.3%.. 6.6%. 2.2%
54.15 Samford................ 19.9%.. 2.7%.. 1.0%.. 0.2%. 0.0%

57.68 (6) The Citadel................. 66.3%. 20.3%.. 6.0%. 1.2%
56.81 Wofford................. 55.8%. 18.6%. 5.3%.. 1.3%. 0.2%
57.19 Charleston Southern 44.2%. 15.2%.. 3.9%.. 1.0%. 0.2%


55.40 (7) North Dakota............... 66.9% 12.8%.. 3.8%. 0.6%
56.03 Richmond............... 78.4% 29.3%.. 6.0%.. 1.8%. 0.3%
47.79 North Carolina A&T.. 21.6%.. 3.8%.. 0.3%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

67.55 (2) Eastern Washington...... 85.6%. 73.4% 52.6% 23.4%
57.45 Central Arkansas..... 45.5%.. 6.0%.. 3.0%.. 1.0%. 0.2%
58.72 Illinois State........... 54.5%.. 8.4%.. 4.5%.. 1.6%. 0.4%

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin's take on the lines for Round 1. The home team gets 2.35 per the current Sagarin model and I'm also giving Illinois State 2.61 as they're coming off a bye.

Cal Poly-SLO -8 v San Diego
Villanova -15.5 v Saint Francis-Pa.
Chattanooga -15.5 v Weber State
Lehigh -3.5 @ New Hampshire
Youngstown State -11.5 v Samford
Wofford -2 v Charleston Southern
Richmond -10.5 v North Carolina A&T
Illinois State -1.5 @ Central Arkansas

[grizlandbisonfan]

I don't think that Sagarin or Massey or the NCAA's SRS give a shit about our narrative.

Can't disagree there. But UNI loses games... lots of them. Maybe they just don't lose by enough, but at some point you have to judge a team by their ability to win, not by their ability to lose by only a little bit.

[Mr Pep Band]

Team.............................. Rd1..... Rd2..... Qtr.. Semi... Final

72.70 (1) North Dakota State....... 97.2% 76.8% 61.1% 43.7%
52.76 Cal Poly-SLO.......... 71.9%.. 2.4%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%. 0.0%
47.27 San Diego.............. 28.1%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

65.14 (8) South Dakota State...... 84.0%. 20.9% 10.2%. 5.2%
57.62 Villanova............... 87.7%. 15.6%.. 1.8%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
44.23 Saint Francis-Pa. .... 12.3%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%


62.52 (5) Sam Houston State....... 73.0% 29.3%.. 7.5%. 3.3%
60.38 Chattanooga........... 87.0% 26.0%.. 9.0%.. 1.6%. 0.6%
47.47 Weber State........... 13.0%.. 0.9%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

65.31 (4) James Madison............ 88.2%. 58.7% 18.7%. 9.7%
50.48 New Hampshire...... 40.2%.. 2.9%.. 0.5%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
56.17 Lehigh................... 59.8%.. 8.9%.. 2.5%.. 0.3%. 0.1%



64.22 (3) Jacksonville State........ 71.0%. 53.3% 24.2%. 8.6%
63.22 Youngstown State.... 80.1% 26.4% 16.3%.. 6.6%. 2.2%
54.15 Samford................ 19.9%.. 2.7%.. 1.0%.. 0.2%. 0.0%

57.68 (6) The Citadel................. 66.3%. 20.3%.. 6.0%. 1.2%
56.81 Wofford................. 55.8%. 18.6%. 5.3%.. 1.3%. 0.2%
57.19 Charleston Southern 44.2%. 15.2%.. 3.9%.. 1.0%. 0.2%


55.40 (7) North Dakota............... 66.9% 12.8%.. 3.8%. 0.6%
56.03 Richmond............... 78.4% 29.3%.. 6.0%.. 1.8%. 0.3%
47.79 North Carolina A&T.. 21.6%.. 3.8%.. 0.3%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

67.55 (2) Eastern Washington...... 85.6%. 73.4% 52.6% 23.4%
57.45 Central Arkansas..... 45.5%.. 6.0%.. 3.0%.. 1.0%. 0.2%
58.72 Illinois State........... 54.5%.. 8.4%.. 4.5%.. 1.6%. 0.4%

Looks like Sam Houston and UN_ should be on upset alert in 2 weeks! :evil::praying::rofl:

[bisonaudit]

Looks like Sam Houston and UN_ should be on upset alert in 2 weeks! :evil::praying::rofl:

Perhaps but they're be catching 5 points or so between being at home and having a week off. And in the case of our friends to the North, Richmond lost their starting QB to an ACL tear Saturday and of course the model is completely ignorant of those kinds of facts and circumstances.

[Mr Pep Band]

Perhaps but they're be catching 5 points or so between being at home and having a week off. And in the case of our friends to the North, Richmond lost their starting QB to an ACL tear Saturday and of course the model is complete ignorant of those kinds of facts and circumstances.

That is true, the computer doesn't care about individuals, just the score, location, bye weeks, history, and a few other things I'm not aware of.

However, it will be fun to see those games as they look to be the tightest games in the second round.

Oh, and The Citadel also, but they're a southern team :biggrin:


..........and of course I forgot about the Fighting Pelini's and Y State. Maybe their defense can snuff out Cocky State.









..... ah hell, I'm just glad the playoffs are here and get to see some quality football games!!!

[bisonaudit]

That is true, the computer doesn't care about individuals, just the score, location, bye weeks, history, and a few other things I'm not aware of.

However, it will be fun to see those games as they look to be the tightest games in the second round.

Oh, and The Citadel also, but they're a southern team :biggrin:


..........and of course I forgot about the Fighting Pelini's and Y State. Maybe their defense can snuff out Cocky State.









..... ah hell, I'm just glad the playoffs are here and get to see some quality football games!!!


Agree. Just had to work the disclaimers in there.

[bisonaudit]

Team.................................. Rd2..... Qtr.. Semi... Final

72.83 (1) North Dakota State. 98.1% 77.9% 61.5% 44.6%
49.36 San Diego................... 1.9%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
65.15 (8) South Dakota State 82.5%. 20.0%.. 9.5%. 5.0%
57.46 Villanova................... 17.5%.. 1.9%.. 0.5%. 0.2%

62.73 (5) Sam Houston State. 67.7% 26.7%.. 6.8%. 3.1%
61.48 Chattanooga............... 32.3% 11.7%.. 2.3%. 1.0%
65.70 (4) James Madison...... 89.7%. 59.5% 19.2% 10.3%
53.49 New Hampshire.......... 10.3%.. 2.1%.. 0.2%. 0.0%


64.31 (3) Jacksonville State.. 66.2%. 49.8% 23.4%. 8.2%
63.60 Youngstown State........ 33.8% 20.7%.. 8.8%. 2.9%
57.74 (6) The Citadel........... 66.8%. 20.2%.. 6.2%. 1.2%
56.83 Wofford..................... 33.2%.. 9.3%.. 2.4%. 0.4%

55.12 (7) North Dakota......... 58.1% 11.3%.. 3.2%. 0.5%
57.31 Richmond.................. 41.9%. 10.0%.. 3.4%. 0.6%
67.17 (2) Eastern Washington 84.9%. 71.3% 50.0% 21.5%
58.11 Central Arkansas......... 15.1%.. 7.4%.. 2.4%. 0.5%

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin's take on the lines for Round 2. The home team gets 2.32 per the current Sagarin model and I'm also giving teams coming off a bye 2.61 points.

North Dakota State -28.5 v San Diego
South Dakota State -12.5 v Villanova
Sam Houston State -6 v Chattanooga
James Madison -17 v New Hampshire
Jacksonville State -5.5 v Youngstown State
The Citadel -6 v Wofford
North Dakota -2.5 v Richmond
Eastern Washington -14 v Central Arkansas

[THEsocalledfan]

Sagarin's take on the lines for Round 2. The home team gets 2.32 per the current Sagarin model and I'm also giving teams coming off a bye 2.61 points.

North Dakota State -28.5 v San Diego
South Dakota State -12.5 v Villanova
Sam Houston State -6 v Chattanooga
James Madison -17 v New Hampshire
Jacksonville State -5.5 v Youngstown State
The Citadel -6 v Wofford
North Dakota -2.5 v Richmond
Eastern Washington -14 v Central Arkansas

Oh boy.....note the smallest Sagarin line......

[roadwarrior]

52.76 Cal Poly-SLO.......... 71.9%..
47.27 San Diego.............. 28.1%..


How did this prediction work out?

[Mr Meaty]

How did this prediction work out?

Exactly, that is why you play the games on the field. No gimmie games this time of year.

[bisonaudit]

Exactly, that is why you play the games on the field. No gimmie games this time of year.

Of course.

It's a probabilistic model. It's going to get individual games wrong a fair amount of the time. Poly was an 8 point favorite and lost by 14. The standard deviation is around 14 points so a 22 point miss in a particular direction would be about a 1 in 20 event. That's like playing 2 numbers on a roulette spin.

[THEsocalledfan]

Exactly, that is why you play the games on the field. No gimmie games this time of year.

Yet, if you don't follow Audit and Hammers work closely, you may miss that 28.1% is an incredibly high number for a Pioneer league team. Remember, that means they had a 1 in 4 chance to win which is not bad at all. This is a better pioneer league team than usual and the question becomes how are they funding their players.