Week 10 Polls

[NDSUstudent]

AGS
1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 2099 83 1
2 North Dakota State Bison 1959 6
3 McNeese State Cowboys 1860 1 7
4 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1834 9
5 Illinois State Redbirds 1736 2
6 William & Mary Tribe 1651 10
7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 1321 11
8 Richmond Spiders 1316 5
9 Portland State Vikings 1285 3
10 Charleston Southern Buccaneers 1282 14
11 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1241 15
12 Chattanooga Mocs 1218 4
13 James Madison Dukes 1179 13
14 Northern Iowa Panthers 947 17
15 The Citadel Bulldogs 902 18
16 Eastern Washington Eagles 843 8
17 Harvard Crimson 817 16
18 Sam Houston State Bearkats 674 12
19 Fordham Rams 478 20
20 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 413 30
21 Youngstown State Penguins 411 21
22 North Carolina A&T Aggies 352 23
23 Dartmouth Big Green 231 24
24 Towson Tigers 212 28
25 Central Arkansas Bears 203 29

Most Significant Win: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Most Significant Loss: Portland State Vikings

ORV:
26 Dayton Flyers 172 26
27 Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 152 33
28 Montana Grizzlies 85 31
29 South Dakota Coyotes 67 36
30 Western Carolina Catamounts 63 37
31 Eastern Kentucky Colonels 62 19
32 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 61 32
33 Western Illinois Leathernecks 34 25
34 New Hampshire Wildcats 31 NR
35 North Dakota 29 35
36 Eastern Illinois Panthers 28 27
37 Villanova Wildcats 13 NR
38T Grambling State Tigers 8 NR
38T Liberty Flames 8 38
40 Colgate Raiders 7 NR

Fell Out Of Poll:
Indiana State Sycamores 22
Southern Illinois Salukis 34

[Bison 4 Life]

15-25 were brutal. I just started putting anyone with a winning record in.

[NDSUBowler]

STATS poll

Rank School Votes Prev
1 Jacksonville State (8-1) 4012 (149) 1
2 North Dakota State (7-2) 3739 6
3 McNeese State (9-0) 3613 (12) 9
4 Coastal Carolina (8-1) 3344 8
5 South Dakota State (7-2) 3311 11
6 Illinois State (7-2) 3180 2
7 William & Mary (7-2) 2862 12
8 Chattanooga (7-2) 2510 3
9 Richmond (7-2) 2433 5
10 Eastern Washington (6-3) 2349 4
11 Charleston Southern (8-1) 2312 15
12 Harvard (8-0) 2285 13
13 Sam Houston State (6-3) 2111 7
14 James Madison (7-2) 2082 14
15 Portland State (7-2) 1780 10
16 Fordham (8-2) 1602 16
17 UNI (5-4) 1529 17
18 Southern Utah (7-2) 1405 20
19 North Carolina A&T (8-1) 1292 19
20 Youngstown State (5-4) 779 21
21 Citadel (7-2) 690 25
22 Montana (5-4) 621 22
23 Dartmouth (7-1) 518 24
24 Eastern Kentucky (5-4) 352 18
25 Grambling State (7-2) 304 NR

[NDSUBowler]

Coaches Poll

RANK TEAM RECORD POINTS LAST
1 Jacksonville State (25) 8-1 649 1
2 McNeese State (1) 9-0 617 5
3 North Dakota State 7-2 598 5
4 Coastal Carolina 8-1 556 8
5 South Dakota State 7-2 543 11
6 Illinois State 7-2 499 2
7 William & Mary 7-2 473 12
8 Charleston Southern 8-1 433 13
9 Chattanooga 7-2 401 3
10 Eastern Washington 6-3 373 4
11 James Madison 7-2 352 14
12 Richmond 72 339 7
13 Harvard 8-0 308 15
14 North Carolina A&T 8-1 282 16
15 Southern Utah 7-2 281 18
16 Portland State 7-2 266 9
17 Fordham 8-2 253 17
18 Sam Houston State 6-3 250 9
19 Northern Iowa 5-4 212 20
20 The Citadel 7-2 168 22
21 Youngstown State 5-4 138 21
22 Montana 5-4 83 22
23 Bethune-Cookman 8-2 80 25
24 Dartmouth 7-1 49 NR
25 Northern Arizona 6-3 44 NR

[MNLonghorn10]

Combined, how many ranked teams has jsu and msu played so far? Jw so I can laugh

[Professor Chaos]

How Coastal is ranked above both SDSU and Illinois St in the Coaches and STATS polls just blows my mind.

[Bison 4 Life]

How Coastal is ranked above both SDSU and Illinois St in the Coaches and STATS polls just blows my mind.

Slot voting.

[thebootfitter]

How Coastal is ranked above both SDSU and Illinois St in the Coaches and STATS polls just blows my mind.
'Dat record, 'do!

[Bison 4 Life]

Combined, how many ranked teams has jsu and msu played so far? Jw so I can laugh

I think 2-3 combined? Sam Houston I believe is/was the only ranked team MSU played unless SELA was still falling out of the top 25 then. Jacksonville only played Chatty, another suspect team.

[AKCBOXERZ]

Mcneese football schedule is a joke. No wonder they undefeated. Who have they played other than Sam Houston? That cake schedule is gonna bite them in the ass once they play sums actually good come playoff time.

[tjbison]

NDSU just needs the wins, it will all work out after that

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[Bison 4 Life]

Redbird tears are delicious.

[Bisonville GasMan]

McNeese St. versus NDSU at the Fargodome would be a fun game.

[Mr Meaty]

We win out and minimum #2 seed after this last weekend. Thank you SDSU Jackrabbits. Meat and Cheese platter is on the way.

[Mayville Bison]

McNeese St. versus NDSU at the Fargodome would be a fun game.

Have the game down at McNeese so the boys can get ready for some warm weather outdoor football :D

Either way would be a slaughter.

[BisonNation11]

We win out and minimum #2 seed after this last weekend. Thank you SDSU Jackrabbits. Carrot and radish platter is on the way.

FIFY...... :biggrin:

[tony]

I'd certainly like NDSU to get another shot at Montana.

[Bison bison]

FIFY...... :biggrin:

That's not nice.

Especially when what they really want is a salt lick.




Dammit. We just lost Izzy.

[StL Bison Fan]

That's not nice.

Especially when what they really want is a salt lick.


Dammit. We just lost Izzy.
One of those little circle ones you put a string in and hang on the cage... :bunnyb:

[Bison 4 Life]

Bottom line, if you have McNeese at 2, you should have Harvard at #1

[Kevin]

Bottom line, if you have McNeese at 2, you should have Harvard at #1

I was surprised to see Kolpack put McNeese at #2. Dom got it right, at least.

[thebootfitter]

We win out and minimum #2 seed after this last weekend. Thank you SDSU Jackrabbits. Meat and Cheese platter is on the way.
Be prepared to be disappointed then. If McNeese wins out, I'd be willing to bet they'll be seeded higher than everyone except probably Jax St. Whether they SHOULD be or not is another question, but history suggests they will be.


I was surprised to see Kolpack put McNeese at #2. Dom got it right, at least.
Right? Or right? See above. Regardless of strength of schedule, the playoff committee has favored undefeated teams from a "decent" conference in the past.

[Bison 4 Life]

Be prepared to be disappointed then. If McNeese wins out, I'd be willing to bet they'll be seeded higher than everyone except probably Jax St. Whether they SHOULD be or not is another question, but history suggests they will be.


Right? Or right? See above. Regardless of strength of schedule, the playoff committee has favored undefeated teams from a "decent" conference in the past.

Then why aren't they #1? Like I said, if record is important Harvard or Dayton should be #1

[Kevin]

Be prepared to be disappointed then. If McNeese wins out, I'd be willing to bet they'll be seeded higher than everyone except probably Jax St. Whether they SHOULD be or not is another question, but history suggests they will be.


Right? Or right? See above. Regardless of strength of schedule, the playoff committee has favored undefeated teams from a "decent" conference in the past.


It's that southcoast bias.

[bisonaudit]

Bottom line, if you have McNeese at 2, you should have Harvard at #1

It's worse than that. Harvard @ #1 is less of a miss than McNeese @ #2.

[GRAFTONBISON]

Be prepared to be disappointed then. If McNeese wins out, I'd be willing to bet they'll be seeded higher than everyone except probably Jax St. Whether they SHOULD be or not is another question, but history suggests they will be.


Right? Or right? See above. Regardless of strength of schedule, the playoff committee has favored undefeated teams from a "decent" conference in the past.

It won't matter if McNeese gets the #2 seed instead of us. They would lose in the quarters to possibly another MVFC team if they even make it that far. if NDSU can take care of their business in the early rounds of the playoffs, the semifinal game will be in Fargo either way.

If we stub our toe this weekend, all bets are off.

[thebootfitter]

Then why aren't they #1? Like I said, if record is important Harvard or Dayton should be #1
Rankings in various polls and playoff committee seeds are casually correlated at best. While they do look at strength of schedule, the metrics that they use to determine strength of schedule may not be as robust as we'd like them to be. And to be fair, with an 11 or 12 game season, it is a hard statistic to peg with any skill.

[bisonaudit]

Rankings in various polls and playoff committee seeds are casually correlated at best. While they do look at strength of schedule, the metrics that they use to determine strength of schedule may not be as robust as we'd like them to be. And to be fair, with an 11 or 12 game season, it is a hard statistic to peg with any skill.

It's not any harder than ranking the teams. Of course they're not very good at that either. But what should we expect from a group of people who feel like they have to pretend (even to themselves) that they're not considering certain things while they are actually considering them.

[thebootfitter]

It's not any harder than ranking the teams. Of course they're not very good at that either. But what should we expect from a group of people who feel like they have to pretend (even to themselves) that they're not considering certain things while they are actually considering them.
Amen, brother audit!

[westnodak93bison]

Cute poll. Imho if the coaches were asked which team they would least like to play it would be The Bison.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[Bisonville GasMan]

Cute poll. Imho if the coaches were asked which team they would least like to play it would be The Bison.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

This here is true.

[DM05]

Assuming the big 3 in the MVFC win out, which of these scenarios would be the easier road to Frisco for the Bison?
1. McNeese as a 2 seed and NDSU at the three (possible semifinal on the road if McNeese gets there, semifinal at home if they don't), with ISUr and SDSU in the other bracket as the 4 and 5.
2. NDSU at #2 and ISUr at 3, with a possible home semifinal against the Redbirds.

I only ask because if NDSU deserves to be ahead of McNeese (and we should), then ISUr and SDSU should be as well. I think if we play well, the only teams that have a shot at us are UNI, ISUr, and SDSU.

[bisonaudit]

5 of the 7 computers have published. It looks like NDSU will be #1 in the next GPI.

Prediction

NDSU
Jax St
SDSU
Ill St
Harvard
McNeese
W&M
JMU
Coastal
S Utah

[Professor Chaos]

Assuming the big 3 in the MVFC win out, which of these scenarios would be the easier road to Frisco for the Bison?
1. McNeese as a 2 seed and NDSU at the three (possible semifinal on the road if McNeese gets there, semifinal at home if they don't), with ISUr and SDSU in the other bracket as the 4 and 5.
2. NDSU at #2 and ISUr at 3, with a possible home semifinal against the Redbirds.

I only ask because if NDSU deserves to be ahead of McNeese (and we should), then ISUr and SDSU should be as well. I think if we play well, the only teams that have a shot at us are UNI, ISUr, and SDSU.
#1 easily because I doubt a 2 seeded McNeese would make the semis thus giving NDSU homefield until Frisco anyway and if SDSU and ISUr are on the other side of the bracket its likely UNI is as well.

[bisonaudit]

#1 easily because I doubt a 2 seeded McNeese would make the semis thus giving NDSU homefield until Frisco anyway and if SDSU and ISUr are on the other side of the bracket its likely UNI is as well.

I don't know, ISUr is probably the next best team in the draw. I think I'd want to play them in our building and in scenario #2 we'd be guaranteed home field no matter who the opponent is.

[FFBison]

I don't know, ISUr is probably the next best team in the draw. I think I'd want to play them in our building and in scenario #2 we'd be guaranteed home field no matter who the opponent is.

By "our building", I'm assuming you mean Toyota Stadium? :)

[AKCBOXERZ]

Really only MVFC teams scare me come playoffs. Hoping we get @least 3 teams in this year. I'm willing to bet they will open a can of whoop ass on most teams & go far...until we have to play eachother again. I want us to play Jacksonville State just cuz I want to see if they the real deal? I feel if they didn't play Auburn close like they did, well yea they wouldn't be sitting on top as they have a fluffy schedule as well.

[NDSUstudent]

JMU scared me when they had Lee, they were just a machine on offense but now not so much since their defensive issues are much more prevalent. W&M could be an interesting match up, they play more like a Valley team with a good defense and running the ball. JSU is another interesting team, they had a nice win at Chatty and should have beat Auburn...I think the OVC is a bit better than usual as well and probably stronger then the Southland. Which brings me to McNeese, defensively they seem stout but offensively they don't see to pose much of a threat. They've played an embarrassing schedule...I think they are one and done unless they get a Big Sky or SLC team in round 1.

[sbark]

How Coastal is ranked above both SDSU and Illinois St in the Coaches and STATS polls just blows my mind.

as always.......its that "southern speed" they always want to factor in.

[JSUBison]

A team nobody is talking about that much in terms of getting a top 4 seed is William and Mary. 7-2 overall, with a 4-0 record against top 25. FBS loss to Virgina by 6 points. 1 point loss @ Delaware. SOS and Sagarin a bit worse than NDSU's right now. However, their next two games are against top 10 Richmond and top 25 Towson. If W&M win those two, they have to be in the mix as well for a top 4 seed.

[td577]

Really only MVFC teams scare me come playoffs. Hoping we get @least 3 teams in this year. I'm willing to bet they will open a can of whoop ass on most teams & go far...until we have to play eachother again. I want us to play Jacksonville State just cuz I want to see if they the real deal? I feel if they didn't play Auburn close like they did, well yea they wouldn't be sitting on top as they have a fluffy schedule as well.

I am with you. It is really only the valley teams that seem significantly scary. That is why I hate the regional matchups the committee is enamored with. Schools in the valley play their asses off for the entire conference schedule only to see conference foes in the first couple of rounds. The other side to that is if you put the top four from the valley in the four corners of the brackets, it is conceivable you have a valley only semis and finals. While the committee might not like that, wouldn't that be the best four teams left in the country? And if it isn't four valley teams, wouldn't the last four teams left pretty much had to play a valley team to get there? There would be no questions about the teams who got through to the end being worthy of being there.

[awBison]

I'm still unsure on Nessy and Coastal. It is so hard to tell how good they really are with the opponents that they are playing. They are definitely good, but I question how they will hold up to more physical teams. If I had to guess, I'd say that they probably will not be able to win most games against us. I'm not really concerned about any of the valley teams either. Maybe ISU a little but I think that we can cover them if we are on point. In other words, I think we are the better team.

However, I don't see how anyone can discount Jacksonville in any way. If you've watched them play a few games, you know they are an extremely good team. I really think that they would beat us 8/10 games from what I've seen so far. We need to improve if we are going to beat them. They are solid and they are the real deal. You don't take on a top 10 FBS team and come close to beating them without some serious skill. They have a great QB, great receivers, great run game and blocking to go with it, great defense, fast play, and great coaching. They are solid everywhere but the thing that really stands out to me is their shear speed and precision on offense. If you are going to compete with them your pass coverage has got to be nearly perfect. I have not seen that out of the Bison yet though we have made huge progress from the first few games this year. The last two games in particular have been getting to the level that I think we may be able to compete and possibly win. I think we'll need everything to win it though. Good special teams, better kicking, and most importantly fewer penalties. We won't beat Jacksonville if we are giving up penalty yards.

[Bison 4 Life]

I'm still unsure on Nessy. It is so hard to tell how good they really are with the opponents that they are playing. They are definitely good, but I question how they will hold up to more physical teams. If I had to guess, I'd say that they probably will not be able to win most games against us.

However, I don't see how anyone can discount Jacksonville in any way. If you've watched them play a few games, you know they are an extremely good team. I really think that they would beat us 8/10 games from what I've seen so far. They are solid and they are the real deal. You don't take on a top 10 FBS team and come close to beating them without some serious skill. They have a great QB, great receivers, great run game and blocking to go with it, great defense, fast play, and great coaching. They are solid everywhere but the thing that really stands out to me is their shear speed and precision on offense. If you are going to compete with them your pass coverage has got to be nearly perfect. I have not seen that out of the Bison yet though we have made huge progress from the first few games this year. The last two games in particular have been getting to the level that I think we may be able to compete and possibly win. I think we'll need everything to win it though. Good special teams, better kicking, and most importantly fewer penalties. We won't beat Jacksonville if we are giving up penalty yards.


http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2817947/billbored.gif

[awBison]

I am with you. It is really only the valley teams that seem significantly scary. That is why I hate the regional matchups the committee is enamored with. Schools in the valley play their asses off for the entire conference schedule only to see conference foes in the first couple of rounds. The other side to that is if you put the top four from the valley in the four corners of the brackets, it is conceivable you have a valley only semis and finals. While the committee might not like that, wouldn't that be the best four teams left in the country? And if it isn't four valley teams, wouldn't the last four teams left pretty much had to play a valley team to get there? There would be no questions about the teams who got through to the end being worthy of being there.

What team in the valley do you think would beat us? I think we have all of them covered if we play well. You really SDSU can take us if we're on? Illinois? Depends on the day but I still think we're the better team overall.

[td577]

What team in the valley do you think would beat us? I think we have all of them covered if we play well. You really SDSU can take us if we're on? Illinois? Depends on the day but I still think we're the better team overall.

First of all, I think if we are on, there aren't too many teams anywhere that can beat us. I think when we are not on, the door opens for just about any one of those teams. I honestly think the top four teams in the valley are probably somewhere in the top 6 in the nation. Since the 2010 EWU game, only one loss has come outside the conference. Two playoff games have been scary that didn't involve valley teams. CCU and GSU. History has shown the toughest matchups, on average, have been valley teams. I don't know what to think about SDSU because when they aren't playing the Bison, they are a very good team. ISUr has had a good season and while not as dominating as last year, they are winning. UNI always plays us tough because they create a bad matchup. For the most part, valley teams are willing to stick it out in an ugly game. The rest of the country has never struck me as being that way. We can turn a game ugly and make a team grind it out to win. Towson couldn't hang. SHSU couldn't hang. Wofford didn't have enough to hang. James Madison didn't know what hit them. Give the Bison anyone other than a valley team and it becomes a game the opponent has no clue what it really is about until it is too late to do anything about it. Plus, the conference games get chippy.

I think the Bison can play with anyone, but given the choice, lets make it someone new. Against the field, we might not look as imposing as we normally have, but when you take an opponent individually and match them up, it will still take a pretty special team to knock the Bison out.

[CentennialBison]

I'm still unsure on Nessy and Coastal. It is so hard to tell how good they really are with the opponents that they are playing. They are definitely good, but I question how they will hold up to more physical teams. If I had to guess, I'd say that they probably will not be able to win most games against us. I'm not really concerned about any of the valley teams either. Maybe ISU a little but I think that we can cover them if we are on point. In other words, I think we are the better team.

However, I don't see how anyone can discount Jacksonville in any way. If you've watched them play a few games, you know they are an extremely good team. I really think that they would beat us 8/10 games from what I've seen so far. We need to improve if we are going to beat them. They are solid and they are the real deal. You don't take on a top 10 FBS team and come close to beating them without some serious skill. They have a great QB, great receivers, great run game and blocking to go with it, great defense, fast play, and great coaching. They are solid everywhere but the thing that really stands out to me is their shear speed and precision on offense. If you are going to compete with them your pass coverage has got to be nearly perfect. I have not seen that out of the Bison yet though we have made huge progress from the first few games this year. The last two games in particular have been getting to the level that I think we may be able to compete and possibly win. I think we'll need everything to win it though. Good special teams, better kicking, and most importantly fewer penalties. We won't beat Jacksonville if we are giving up penalty yards.

No just no. 8/10? 4-5/10 maybe, and I am not even sure about that. I watched them play 4 games.

[bloodmakesthegrassgrow]

Good thing they don't use the Coaches Poll.

[Christopher Moen]

I'm still unsure on Nessy and Coastal. It is so hard to tell how good they really are with the opponents that they are playing. They are definitely good, but I question how they will hold up to more physical teams. If I had to guess, I'd say that they probably will not be able to win most games against us. I'm not really concerned about any of the valley teams either. Maybe ISU a little but I think that we can cover them if we are on point. In other words, I think we are the better team.

However, I don't see how anyone can discount Jacksonville in any way. If you've watched them play a few games, you know they are an extremely good team. I really think that they would beat us 8/10 games from what I've seen so far. We need to improve if we are going to beat them. They are solid and they are the real deal. You don't take on a top 10 FBS team and come close to beating them without some serious skill. They have a great QB, great receivers, great run game and blocking to go with it, great defense, fast play, and great coaching. They are solid everywhere but the thing that really stands out to me is their shear speed and precision on offense. If you are going to compete with them your pass coverage has got to be nearly perfect. I have not seen that out of the Bison yet though we have made huge progress from the first few games this year. The last two games in particular have been getting to the level that I think we may be able to compete and possibly win. I think we'll need everything to win it though. Good special teams, better kicking, and most importantly fewer penalties. We won't beat Jacksonville if we are giving up penalty yards.


http://media2.giphy.com/media/HlFDE0DEp9Gq4/giphy.gif

[awBison]

No just no. 8/10? 4-5/10 maybe, and I am not even sure about that. I watched them play 4 games.

I'll stand by it. We've been playing inconsistently in a lot of areas and they have not. Special teams, penalties, pass coverage, and finishing tackles. I have been impressed with our progress; it has cleaned up a lot from where we started but there are still things that need to be improved if we are going to win it against Jacksonville. I do think that we can be the more physical team when we're on but I think that they are faster, more experienced, and just more refined in their play then we are. There is a reason they are #1. I think if we continue to improve at the pace we've been improving at that the odds will swing in our favor. At least I'm hoping so.

[bloodmakesthegrassgrow]

When the dust settles, NDSU will be sitting with number 5. You can take it to the bank.

[NDSUSR]

When the dust settles, NDSU will be sitting with number 5. You can take it to the bank.

Disagree.
10char

[JDZ]

Jacksonville.
I think we all know you are actually talking about Jacksonville State. But it would be less confusing and more intelligent-sounding if you referred to them as such. Since Jacksonville University is another school with a FCS football team.

[awBison]

When the dust settles, NDSU will be sitting with number 5. You can take it to the bank.

Lets hope you're right (assuming you're talking championships not rankings).

[Mayville Bison]

I'll stand by it. We've been playing inconsistently in a lot of areas and they have not. Special teams, penalties, pass coverage, and finishing tackles. I have been impressed with our progress; it has cleaned up a lot from where we started but there are still things that need to be improved if we are going to win it against Jacksonville. I do think that we can be the more physical team when we're on but I think that they are faster, more experienced, and just more refined in their play then we are. There is a reason they are #1. I think if we continue to improve at the pace we've been improving at that the odds will swing in our favor. At least I'm hoping so.

Comparing the two teams' stats despite not having the same schedule
Special Teams
Kick offs - JSU (41) allowing 19.45 y/r. NDSU (69) allowing 21.07 y/r
Kick off Returns - JSU (86) 19.5 y/r. NDSU (16) 23.57 y/r
Punting - JSU (58) 35.43 net y/p. NDSU (7) 39.21 net y/p
Punt Return Defense - JSU (48) 7.73 y/r allowed. NDSU (83) 10 y/r allowed.
Punt Returns - JSU (66) 8.1 y/r. NDSU (69) 7.57 y/r.
Analysis of special teams? Ben outkicks his punt coverage. Everything else pretty much a wash. I didn't include FGs as that is more a result of the offensive production or lack of production. I'm not worried about Cam. He's had one (maybe two) bad game.

Penalties
Total Penalties - JSU (80) 61 or 6.8/game. NDSU (28t) 48 or 5.3/game
Total Yards - JSU (69t) 525 or 58.3y/game. NDSU (25t) 422 or 46.9y/game
Analysis? Bonnet will get his 2 false starts every game. Outside of that, there isn't a repetitive penalty happening. Maybe CJ with his PI calls, but that's just how he plays man coverage. I wouldn't want him to change anything.

Pass Coverage
Yards/Game allowed - JSU (11) 164.4 y/g. NDSU (38) 197.9
3rd Down % Defense - JSU (10) 29%. NDSU (2) 26%
Sacks - JSU (19t) 24 or 2.67/game. NDSU (50t) 19 or 2.11/game
Analysis? Yes, we've given up some big pass plays recently. It looks like those were because of communication issues. That's going to happen with a true frosh and sophomore as safeties. We need to figure out some 3rd down disguise blitzes to prevent those 3rd and long conversions we saw in the SIU game. Those are the type of plays that can kill momentum and keep your defense on the field forever. Make the QB either get rid of the ball quick or take off running for his life.

Outside of the first half game @EIU, they haven't been challenged in 6 games, so we really don't know how good they are or aren't. This is the one matchup I want to see at some point. Doesn't matter to me if it's in Frisco or if we get a 4-seed and go to their place, I just want it to happen.

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin says: NDSU 63% Jax St 37% on a neutral field.

[Bison 4 Life]

Sounds like another southern speed team.

[jacksfan29]

Outside of the first half game @EIU, they haven't been challenged in 6 games, so we really don't know how good they are or aren't. This is the one matchup I want to see at some point. Doesn't matter to me if it's in Frisco or if we get a 4-seed and go to their place, I just want it to happen.

You will never see them because they won't make it out of the quarters. OVC teams do not survive when they begin to hit real competition from the major conferences. Think about how good NDSU, SDSU, ISUr, UNI would look if they played OVC competition every week?

[Mayville Bison]

You will never see them because they won't make it out of the quarters. OVC teams do not survive when they begin to hit real competition from the major conferences. Think about how good NDSU, SDSU, ISUr, UNI would look if they played OVC competition every week?

What happens if NDSU/SDSU/ISU are ranked 3/6/7 which is a really good possibility leaving all of them on one side and not much on the other? That leaves JSU and the CAA champ to come out of the other side.

[BisonNation11]

What happens if NDSU/SDSU/ISU are ranked 3/6/7 which is a really good possibility leaving all of them on one side and not much on the other? That leaves JSU and the CAA champ to come out of the other side.

If that happens, Patty V better be kicking in doors and busting some heads with the decision makers.

[southcliffbison]

If that happens, Patty V better be kicking in doors and busting some heads with the decision makers.

She should/could/probably won't..........

[SDbison]

She should/could/probably won't.......... I saw Patty V. in the breakfast bar area of our hotel after the loss in Missoula. Somehow I resisted the urge to tell her what I thought of her efforts to represent the MVFC. Likely because some of the fans around me would not have understood, and more likely because I did not want to embarrass my wife.

[jack power]

I saw Patty V. in the breakfast bar area of our hotel after the loss in Missoula. Somehow I resisted the urge to tell her what I thought of her efforts to represent the MVFC. Likely because some of the fans around me would not have understood, and more likely because I did not want to embarrass my wife.
Can't do it.........too easy

[bri-dog]

What the hell -- she DID say for better or for worse didn't she?

[JDZ]

I did a little stat comparison of NDSU offense vs Jacksonville State defense, and vice versa. I will list the FCS rank and the actual stat as reported by the NCAA. At the end, I have used the stats to approximate a game between the two teams.

----------

Total Offense vs. Total Defense, Rank - ypg

NDSU Off, 22 - 445
JSU Def, 2 - 258

NDSU Def, 14 - 298
JSU Off, 6 - 490

----------

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense, Rank - ppg

NDSU Off, 19 - 34.7
JSU Def, 5 - 14.6

NDSU Def, 20 - 18.9
JSU Off, 17 - 35.0

----------

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense, Rank - ypg

NDSU Off, 13 - 232
JSU Def, 6 - 93

NDSU Def, 9 - 100
JSU Off, 9 - 264

----------

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense, Rank - ypg

NDSU Off, 57 - 213
JSU Def, 11 - 164

NDSU Def, 38 - 198
JSU Off, 43 - 226

----------

First Downs Gained vs. First Downs Allowed - First Downs per game

NDSU Off - 23.2
JSU Def - 14.7

NDSU Def - 13.4
JSU Off - 25.3


I did not calculate the rankings for these numbers, as NCAA only ranks the teams by total first downs in the season. The rankings are thrown off by teams playing differing numbers of games.

----------

Third Down offense vs. Third Down Defense, Rank - .pct

NDSU Off, 3 - .526
JSU Def, 10 - .290

NDSU Def, 2 - .260
JSU Off, 35 - .421

----------

Adjusting for Sagarin's strength of schedule, approximately a 53.9% skew towards NDSU, approximates the following result:

Stat, NDSU-JSU

Total yards, 359-387
Rush yards, 168-176
Pass yards, 190-211
1st Downs, 19-19
3rd Dn pct, .417-.334

Final Score, 25-26

Bottom line, it could be a pretty close game. Jacksonville State would be the toughest out-of-conference opponent NDSU has faced in the last three years, at least.

[Hammerhead]

Then the championship game will be the semifinal with ISUr @ NDSU. :)


What happens if NDSU/SDSU/ISU are ranked 3/6/7 which is a really good possibility leaving all of them on one side and not much on the other? That leaves JSU and the CAA champ to come out of the other side.

[Bison 4 Life]

Until JSU has to play a decent schedule, I will not worry about them one bit. They pad their stats on substandard competition.

[bisonaudit]

Until JSU has to play a decent schedule, I will not worry about them one bit. They pad their stats on substandard competition.

Sagarin says it's a 5 1/2 point game on a neutral field. That's close enough for me to worry.

[Bison 4 Life]

Sagarin says it's a 5 1/2 point game on a neutral field. That's close enough for me to worry.

Remember EIU and their 2 seed? They made it to the quarters, where OVC teams go to die.

[bisonaudit]

Remember EIU and their 2 seed? They made it to the quarters, where OVC teams go to die.


Sure. They're like any other team. They have to get to us first. And we have to get to them.

I didn't mean to imply I'm actively worried about them, at this moment. Currently my worry is occupied by YSU and my fantasy QBs lacerated kidney. But if the time comes, I'll be ready.

[Mr Meaty]

Sagarin says it's a 5 1/2 point game on a neutral field. That's close enough for me to worry.

Frisco is not a neutral field!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bison 4 Life]

Sure. They're like any other team. They have to get to us first. And we have to get to them.

I didn't mean to imply I'm actively worried about them, at this moment. Currently my worry is occupied by YSU and my fantasy QBs lacerated kidney. But if the time comes, I'll be ready.

That kid needs a new last name.

[cbline]

Frisco is not a neutral field!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rep to you!!!

[bisonaudit]

Frisco is not a neutral field!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Those 3 points won't do much for the knot in the pit of my stomach.

[bisonaudit]

That kid needs a new last name.

The trouble is, his middle name is 'bad'.

[Christopher Moen]

I did a little stat comparison of NDSU offense vs Jacksonville State defense, and vice versa. I will list the FCS rank and the actual stat as reported by the NCAA. At the end, I have used the stats to approximate a game between the two teams.

----------

Total Offense vs. Total Defense, Rank - ypg

NDSU Off, 22 - 445
JSU Def, 2 - 258

NDSU Def, 14 - 298
JSU Off, 6 - 490

----------

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense, Rank - ppg

NDSU Off, 19 - 34.7
JSU Def, 5 - 14.6

NDSU Def, 20 - 18.9
JSU Off, 17 - 35.0

----------

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense, Rank - ypg

NDSU Off, 13 - 232
JSU Def, 6 - 93

NDSU Def, 9 - 100
JSU Off, 9 - 264

----------

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense, Rank - ypg

NDSU Off, 57 - 213
JSU Def, 11 - 164

NDSU Def, 38 - 198
JSU Off, 43 - 226

----------

First Downs Gained vs. First Downs Allowed - First Downs per game

NDSU Off - 23.2
JSU Def - 14.7

NDSU Def - 13.4
JSU Off - 25.3


I did not calculate the rankings for these numbers, as NCAA only ranks the teams by total first downs in the season. The rankings are thrown off by teams playing differing numbers of games.

----------

Third Down offense vs. Third Down Defense, Rank - .pct

NDSU Off, 3 - .526
JSU Def, 10 - .290

NDSU Def, 2 - .260
JSU Off, 35 - .421

----------

Adjusting for Sagarin's strength of schedule, approximately a 53.9% skew towards NDSU, approximates the following result:

Stat, NDSU-JSU

Total yards, 359-387
Rush yards, 168-176
Pass yards, 190-211
1st Downs, 19-19
3rd Dn pct, .417-.334

Final Score, 25-26

Bottom line, it could be a pretty close game. Jacksonville State would be the toughest out-of-conference opponent NDSU has faced in the last three years, at least.


These stats don't take into account the quality of teams JSU and NDSU have played. One plays a fairly tough schedule while the other had quality games against Chattanooga and Auburn. It will be interesting how they do against SE Missouri State, which had close games with SIU and Indiana State early in the season.

[ZHerd]

These stats don't take into account the quality of teams JSU and NDSU have played. One plays a fairly tough schedule while the other had quality games against Chattanooga and Auburn. It will be interesting how they do against SE Missouri State, which had close games with SIU and Indiana State early in the season.

Imo their two quality games are enough reason to take them very seriously. I think they are better than they were last year and they have taken a proper defense first mindset. They may end up proving to be overrated but I definitely don't think they are cupcakes

[Bison 4 Life]

Imo their two quality games are enough reason to take them very seriously. I think they are better than they were last year and they have taken a proper defense first mindset. They may end up proving to be overrated but I definitely don't think they are cupcakes

Absolutely do not think they are cupcakes but they always seem to come up wanting when actually tested in the playoffs.

[Bisonator98]

Imo their two quality games are enough reason to take them very seriously. I think they are better than they were last year and they have taken a proper defense first mindset. They may end up proving to be overrated but I definitely don't think they are cupcakes

I won't disagree but they really should have won that Auburn game. That loss isn't looking as good anymore. I definitely think they are a top 5 team.

[BisonNeil]

Mcneese football schedule is a joke. No wonder they undefeated. Who have they played other than Sam Houston? That cake schedule is gonna bite them in the ass once they play sums actually good come playoff time.

Totally agree. In fact, if they get the #2 seed I hope NDSU gets the #3 which will effectively mean NDSU is still home in the semis because McNeese will never get that far in the playoffs.

[BisonNeil]

U
I am with you. It is really only the valley teams that seem significantly scary. That is why I hate the regional matchups the committee is enamored with. Schools in the valley play their asses off for the entire conference schedule only to see conference foes in the first couple of rounds. The other side to that is if you put the top four from the valley in the four corners of the brackets, it is conceivable you have a valley only semis and finals. While the committee might not like that, wouldn't that be the best four teams left in the country? And if it isn't four valley teams, wouldn't the last four teams left pretty much had to play a valley team to get there? There would be no questions about the teams who got through to the end being worthy of being there.

I see your point. However, I would personally rather have new meat in a natty game and play a Valley team in the dome during the playoffs. I have been to seven national championship games and generally speaking the closest ones were played against conference foes. The exception was Sam Houston. New meat. I want new meat in Frisco.

[jacksfan29]

What happens if NDSU/SDSU/ISU are ranked 3/6/7 which is a really good possibility leaving all of them on one side and not much on the other? That leaves JSU and the CAA champ to come out of the other side.

I would expect, in that scenario the championship would include a CAA school. Just not sold on any OVC school. I don't see JSU making it out of the quarters.

I also don't see three MVFC schools getting seeds. If they all win out the three deserve it. I would be shocked if the committee did it. Too many politics involved. Either SDSU or ISUr will be playing a first round game.

[BisonNeil]

Until JSU has to play a decent schedule, I will not worry about them one bit. They pad their stats on substandard competition.

Many said the same thing last year about CC and that ended up being a pretty good quarterfinal game as I recall.

[Bison 4 Life]

Many said the same thing last year about CC and that ended up being a pretty good quarterfinal game as I recall.

Yes, but these teams have a habit of topping out at the quarterfinals.

[Mayville Bison]

I would expect, in that scenario the championship would include a CAA school. Just not sold on any OVC school. I don't see JSU making it out of the quarters.

I also don't see three MVFC schools getting seeds. If they all win out the three deserve it. I would be shocked if the committee did it. Too many politics involved. Either SDSU or ISUr will be playing a first round game.

Due to those same politics, SDSU will be the one in the first round. Not because they aren't worthy of a seed, but because they won't have a place to call home.

Sucks cuz it would be really nice to see someone other than MVFC teams in the playoffs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

I also don't see three MVFC schools getting seeds. If they all win out the three deserve it. I would be shocked if the committee did it. Too many politics involved. Either SDSU or ISUr will be playing a first round game.
I would've agreed with you before the upset extravaganza last Saturday. Now I don't really see how they can't seed all 3 if they all end up 9-2. Assuming the winner of Richmond and William & Mary is a lock for a seed along with JSU and McNeese after the 3 MVFC teams there's still two seeds left for teams like Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, JMU, and the winner of Southern Utah and Portland State. I don't see three of those teams getting a seed to bounce a 9-2 MVFC team from the seed line.

[Bisonator98]

I would've agreed with you before the upset extravaganza last Saturday. Now I don't really see how they can't seed all 3 if they all end up 9-2. Assuming the winner of Richmond and William & Mary is a lock for a seed along with JSU and McNeese after the 3 MVFC teams there's still two seeds left for teams like Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, JMU, and the winner of Southern Utah and Portland State. I don't see three of those teams getting a seed to bounce a 9-2 MVFC team from the seed line.

Agreed. If all 3 are 9-2 and in the top 8 of most polls I don't see how they can't seed all 3. They would have to really try hard to justify another team being seeded over them.

[BisonNation11]

I see your point. However, I would personally rather have new meat in a natty game and play a Valley team in the dome during the playoffs. I have been to seven national championship games and generally speaking the closest ones were played against conference foes. The exception was Sam Houston. New meat. I want new meat in Frisco.

I'd much prefer new meat at the Dome than Frisco. Obviously I'd like new meat at both places, but conference teams are used to playing in the dome. We lose that advantage. New teams hear about it, but are always taken aback by the actual environment. Can't worry about Frisco if you never get there.


I would expect, in that scenario the championship would include a CAA school. Just not sold on any OVC school. I don't see JSU making it out of the quarters.

I also don't see three MVFC schools getting seeds. If they all win out the three deserve it. I would be shocked if the committee did it. Too many politics involved. Either SDSU or ISUr will be playing a first round game.

If all three Valley schools win out, I don't see how they could not seed them. NDSU beat SDSU who beat ISUr. Please tell me what team you don't seed and what justification you have behind it. All three teams have two losses. SDSU has an FBS win (a win is a win is all I'm going to say about that). ISUr has an FBS loss. It's currently a perfect storm for Valley teams to almost have half the seeds and where they are ranked currently, you can't really argue with it. What would royally piss me off is if they are all on the same side of the bracket.

[Bison03]

So an honest question, please try and refrain your smack as hard as that may be; Does a 7-4 UND team make the playoffs?

[NDSUBowler]

So an honest question, please try and refrain your smack as hard as that may be; Does a 7-4 UND team make the playoffs?
I thought they would be on the bubble and would need as solid a resume builder as possible. Their key win was over PSU. If PSU went through the entire season (including 2 FBS wins) with their only loss being to UND, then that is a strong win for UND. Unfortunately for UND, PSU lost to lowly Northern Colorado last week and I think that diminishes UND's win quite a bit.

An FBS win over awful awful Wyoming won't hold too much water in the end, but it is something. A win over Montana State means little, because Montana State is not good. Losing to 2-7 Idaho State is a beyond awful loss.

There is just nothing to really get excited about w/r/t UND. I think a lot would have to go right for them to make the playoffs at 7-4.

[missingnumber7]

So an honest question, please try and refrain your smack as hard as that may be; Does a 7-4 UND team make the playoffs?

I think they do easily at 7-4, but with everything that has been happening the last couple weeks, I will again reiterate that we could see a 6 win team get in with another weekend like this past weekend.

There are 53 teams that can get to 7 wins of those teams there will be 10 autobids leaving 43 teams for 14 spots. Of those 43 teams:
6 are MEAC- 1 MEAC will make the Celebration bowl, they may be eligible for an auto bid but they would be a 1 bid if that, Bethune-Cookman/NC A&T that leaves
37 for 13/14 spots
4 are NEC, 1 will get the auto bid, they won't get an at large that leaves
34 for 13/14 spots
3 are Patriot, 1 will get auto bid, Fordham will probably get an at large bid that leaves
32 for 12/13 spots
4 are Pioneer, 1 will get auto bid, no 2nd bid that leaves
28 for 12/13 spots
4 are SWAC, no auto, none will get in that leaves
24 for 12/13 spots


Big South has 3 possible teams, CSU has already clinched the auto bid, Liberty plays Charleston Southern and Coastal Carolina. Big South will get 1 at large, not 2. That leaves
22 for 11/12 spots
OVC has 3 possible teams, with 1 autobid they have 1 with 7 wins (JSU), TN-Martin plays EIU which could eliminate them or make their final game vs SEMO a must win, EIU must win both (TN Martin and EKU), IMO OVC will only get 1 bid, but for all practical purposes I will leave this open.
22 of 11/12 spots
Southern has 3 eligible teams, with 1 autobid they have 2 with 7 wins (Chattanooga, The Citadel), WCU plays TX A&M and VMI they must win one to be eligible. That said, they only get one at large, leaving
21 for 10/11 spots
Southland has 3 eligible teams, McNeese has already won autobid, SHSU needs win over Northwestern St or Central Arkansas, Central Arkansas needs to beat Nicholls and SHSU. I only see 1 at large.
20 for 9/10 spots

Big Sky has 8 possible teams, 3 already with 7 wins (SUU, EWU, PSU), NAU needs 1 of 2 wins, UM/Weber all play teams that all have 7 wins or already eliminated, UND plays UNC so that will leave 7 at most with 1 auto bid that will leave
20 for 9/10 spots
CAA has 6 possible teams, with someone getting the autobid they have 3 with 7 wins (Richmond, JMU, W&M), Towson needs 1 of 2 (they play URI & W&M), Nova and UNH have already played each other but must win out. that leaves
20 for 9/10 spots
MVFC has 6 possible teams, with 1 autobid they have 3 with 7 wins (NDSU, ISUR, SDSU), none of the other 3 play each other, that leaves
20 of 9/10 spots

Of the 9/10 slots
EWU/SUU/PSU are in essentially
as are Richmond/JMU/W&M
and NDSU/ISUR/SDSU

That leaves 3/4 slots because of auto bids and it will come down to NAU/UM/Weber/UND/UNC/YSU/USD/UNI/Towson/Nova/UNH
NAU has 1 quality win in EWU, also beat Weber
UM has 1 quality win in NDSU, also beat UND, win out will include a win over EWU
Weber no quality wins, beat UND, UM
UND has 1 FBS win (Wyoming), 1 quality win in PSU
UNC has 1 quality win PSU
YSU no quality wins, win over USD, if YSU wins out and is eligible will have win over NDSU
USD has 1 quality win NDSU, if USD wins out will have wins over SDSU and ISUR
UNI has 2 quality wins EWU, SDSU, has win over USD
Towson no quality wins, win over Nova
Nova no quality wins, win over Fordham, win out will include wins over Richmond and JMU
UNH 1 quality win Richmond, win over Colgate (Patriot autobid)

[bisonaudit]

I don't know if they will get in or not but I can tell you, if I got a vote there are at least 15 teams I'd put between them and the last at-large.

[Bison03]

UND is currently in 7th place in the Big Sky and at 7-4 could still finish 6th or 7th. If UND is in, the 5-6 teams above them would probably think they should be as well.

[jacksfan29]

I'd much prefer new meat at the Dome than Frisco. Obviously I'd like new meat at both places, but conference teams are used to playing in the dome. We lose that advantage. New teams hear about it, but are always taken aback by the actual environment. Can't worry about Frisco if you never get there.



If all three Valley schools win out, I don't see how they could not seed them. NDSU beat SDSU who beat ISUr. Please tell me what team you don't seed and what justification you have behind it. All three teams have two losses. SDSU has an FBS win (a win is a win is all I'm going to say about that). ISUr has an FBS loss. It's currently a perfect storm for Valley teams to almost have half the seeds and where they are ranked currently, you can't really argue with it. What would royally piss me off is if they are all on the same side of the bracket.


Not saying it wouldn't be justified if the three win out and I can't make an argument against any of the three being seeded. I just don't see the committee doing it. Pretty jaded when it comes to how they treat the MVFC. I think NDSU gets a top 2 seed, deservedly so. I think ISUr and SDSU fight for another seed in the top 8 while the third gets a home game against a OVC or BSC 2nd to 3rd entry.

Not saying it is fair, just saying I think that's the route the committee would go if the three win out.

[Bisonator98]

UND is currently in 7th place in the Big Sky and at 7-4 could still finish 6th or 7th. If UND is in, the 5-6 teams above them would probably think they should be as well.

Yeah I don't see them leaping over the top 3 teams and I don't see the BSC getting 4 this year but stranger things have happened I suppose.

[BisonTru]

Not saying it wouldn't be justified if the three win out and I can't make an argument against any of the three being seeded. I just don't see the committee doing it. Pretty jaded when it comes to how they treat the MVFC. I think NDSU gets a top 2 seed, deservedly so. I think ISUr and SDSU fight for another seed in the top 8 while the third gets a home game against a OVC or BSC 2nd to 3rd entry.

Not saying it is fair, just saying I think that's the route the committee would go if the three win out.

Last weekend helped a bunch with Coastal, Chattanooga, and Portland St losing. If all three win out, I think they all get seeded. It's really hard to come up with an argument that any of the three are not top 8 in the country.

[RedRiver]

[QUOTE=missingnumber7;1060756]I think they do easily at 7
Easily? I don't think so they would be one of the last teams in. It's quite probable that they don't end up playing the top 3 teams in the Big Sky and definitely won't finish in the top 3 of the conference standings. If Portland St. drops another game which is likely, where are the quality wins? If they get in it will be 22-24 seed.

[RedRiver]

Portland St could easily drop there next two games, home with Southern Utah and at Eastern Washington.

[td577]

Yeah I don't see them leaping over the top 3 teams and I don't see the BSC getting 4 this year but stranger things have happened I suppose.

Here is what could happen in the Big Sky
Southern Utah: 7-4 (6-2 conference) Most significant win against Weber State. Losses against Utah State, SDSU, Portland State, and NAU. (PSU and NAU would be the last two games yet)
EWU: 7-4 (6-2) Win against Weber State. Losses against Oregon, UNI, NAU, and Montana in this scenario.
Montana: 7-4 (6-2) Wins against NDSU, NAU, UN_, and EWU (in this scenario)
Portland State: 8-3 (5-3) Wins against Washington State, Montana, and Southern Utah. Losses against UN_, Northern Colorado, and EWU.
NAU: 7-4 (5-3) Wins against SFA, Weber State, EWU, and Southern Utah to close season. Losses against Arizona, Montana, and UC Davis.
UND: 7-4 (5-3) Wins against Wyoming and Portland State. Losses against NDSU, Idaho State, Weber State, and Montana.

So it gets pretty messy if all of these 6 teams finish with 7 wins or better, which is quite plausible. I didn't look up all their tiebreakers, but there would end up being three teams tied with only two having played each other. One of those three would get the AQ. You would think Portland State would get in with 8 wins. There still might be 4 teams left with 7 wins each. If Montana wins the AQ, then it would be Southern Utah, NAU, EWU, and UND left for a third bid. Southern Utah and EWU doesn't have any wins against any of those other schools mentioned. NAU has 2 wins and UN_ has 1 win and a FBS win.

If everything fell into place like I mentioned, un_ has a shot. The big fluffy could get so confusing they committee might feel they have no choice but to bring four. I don't know if they will so far as pulling maps out, but that would help the whioux. 7 wins isn't automatic but it puts schools in the conversation. It would be better for everyone if the big fluffy had three schools make it to 8 wins and call it good at that. Even though they are probably the second best conference, as a whole, another conference will get punished for a big fluffy fourth school.

[NorthernBison]

UND is currently in 7th place in the Big Sky and at 7-4 could still finish 6th or 7th. If UND is in, the 5-6 teams above them would probably think they should be as well.

Look closer. If UND wins out (big if) they are at 7 D1 wins including an FBS.

SUU, PSU, and NAU all have a DII so drop a win when the selection committee looks at records.

SUU plays both PSU and NAU to close the season. PSU also plays EWU. NAU needs to win out just to get to 7 countable wins. Weber is ahead of UND but has only one game left and is 5-5.

There is room to move up a lot if they win out.

[Bisonwinagn]

The committee doesn't pay any attention to how many teams get in from a conference so it's a mute point. If it comes down to UND they will be compared to all other potential teams accross the country. The Big Sky has nothing to do with anything.

[bisonaudit]

The committee doesn't pay any attention to how many teams get in from a conference so it's a mute point. If it comes down to UND they will be compared to all other potential teams accross the country. The Big Sky has nothing to do with anything.

Where is the purple?

[td577]

The committee doesn't pay any attention to how many teams get in from a conference so it's a mute point. If it comes down to UND they will be compared to all other potential teams accross the country. The Big Sky has nothing to do with anything.

That is a beautiful thought, but it isn't exactly true. While the committee isn't so transparent with their process, they have let on a little bit here and there about what goes on. They will come up with a master list of teams to consider and then create a draft of teams after placing the AQs in there. After a few drafts have been drawn up and plowed through, there is always attempt to negotiate by committee members. The Big Sky will be defended for who is not on the list, then it will be another team should really be added, and then it will be if you are going to take that team, this one really has a better overall portfolio in an attempt to get an additional team in. At some point it will be realized someone is trying to argue for 5 teams from a conference leaving out someone from another conference. The conversation will turn to there can't be more than 4 from there if we are going to have this one from here. Then it becomes an agreement about 4 because there are representatives from other conferences in there too. So then it goes back to what 4. So while it might be a mute point as in it isn't a stated criteria there is a limitation to how many teams get in, it isn't a moot point because reality doesn't always meet intentions. If this were a moot point, then the selection process would be a lot more transparent and besides seeding, I could create the field in 2 minutes. Remove the AQs, non participating schools, and any with less than 7 wins from the GPI and take the first 14. Done. The rest of the meeting would be spent seeding.

[bisonaudit]

That is a beautiful thought, but it isn't exactly true. While the committee isn't so transparent with their process, they have let on a little bit here and there about what goes on. They will come up with a master list of teams to consider and then create a draft of teams after placing the AQs in there. After a few drafts have been drawn up and plowed through, there is always attempt to negotiate by committee members. The Big Sky will be defended for who is not on the list, then it will be another team should really be added, and then it will be if you are going to take that team, this one really has a better overall portfolio in an attempt to get an additional team in. At some point it will be realized someone is trying to argue for 5 teams from a conference leaving out someone from another conference. The conversation will turn to there can't be more than 4 from there if we are going to have this one from here. Then it becomes an agreement about 4 because there are representatives from other conferences in there too. So then it goes back to what 4. So while it might be a mute point as in it isn't a stated criteria there is a limitation to how many teams get in, it isn't a moot point because reality doesn't always meet intentions. If this were a moot point, then the selection process would be a lot more transparent and besides seeding, I could create the field in 2 minutes. Remove the AQs, non participating schools, and any with less than 7 wins from the GPI and take the first 14. Done. The rest of the meeting would be spent seeding.

I think it's even simpler than that. Wins matter to the committee, and a lot of other people. So much so that this idea that there's a 7 win rule keeps coming up when it doesn't actually exist. But anyway. Wins matter and that means that conferences matter.

Also, if you're going to pick the field in 2 minutes using GPI, why stop there. You can seed the thing the same way and have the whole process done in 3 minutes.

[td577]

I think it's even simpler than that. Wins matter to the committee, and a lot of other people. So much so that this idea that there's a 7 win rule keeps coming up when it doesn't actually exist. But anyway. Wins matter and that means that conferences matter.

Also, if you're going to pick the field in 2 minutes using GPI, why stop there. You can seed the thing the same way and have the whole process done in 3 minutes.

7 wins is their guideline on their website.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[BisonTru]

7 wins is their guideline on their website.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk


The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;

That is from the NCAA Manual.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf


-Also, SHSU got into the field with only 6 D1 wins.

[abc123]

That is a beautiful thought, but it isn't exactly true. While the committee isn't so transparent with their process, they have let on a little bit here and there about what goes on. They will come up with a master list of teams to consider and then create a draft of teams after placing the AQs in there. After a few drafts have been drawn up and plowed through, there is always attempt to negotiate by committee members. The Big Sky will be defended for who is not on the list, then it will be another team should really be added, and then it will be if you are going to take that team, this one really has a better overall portfolio in an attempt to get an additional team in. At some point it will be realized someone is trying to argue for 5 teams from a conference leaving out someone from another conference. The conversation will turn to there can't be more than 4 from there if we are going to have this one from here. Then it becomes an agreement about 4 because there are representatives from other conferences in there too. So then it goes back to what 4. So while it might be a mute point as in it isn't a stated criteria there is a limitation to how many teams get in, it isn't a moot point because reality doesn't always meet intentions. If this were a moot point, then the selection process would be a lot more transparent and besides seeding, I could create the field in 2 minutes. Remove the AQs, non participating schools, and any with less than 7 wins from the GPI and take the first 14. Done. The rest of the meeting would be spent seeding.
Who's the one carrying the supposed water for the Big Sky?

[missingnumber7]

Look closer. If UND wins out (big if) they are at 7 D1 wins including an FBS.

SUU, PSU, and NAU all have a DII so drop a win when the selection committee looks at records.

SUU plays both PSU and NAU to close the season. PSU also plays EWU. NAU needs to win out just to get to 7 countable wins. Weber is ahead of UND but has only one game left and is 5-5.

There is room to move up a lot if they win out.

6 is the number you are meaning to refer to.
The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf
section 2-3 selection criteria

[NorthernBison]

6 is the number you are meaning to refer to.
The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf
section 2-3 selection criteriaI wasn't referring to any criteria other than how many wins it will likely take to get one of the 24 spots in the tournament. Maybe there have been years where a team with 6 wins gets selected but I doubt if this year will be one of them. 7 should, at least, get you into the conversation. If one of them is over an FBS, so much the better (even Wyoming). Drake won't help UND in the SOS though.

[tjbison]

Und vs Dayton opening round, winner comes to Fargo

That would equal epic

[bisonaudit]

6 is the number you are meaning to refer to.
The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf
section 2-3 selection criteria

Is that link right?

The NCAA SRS formula is basically in there. Basically a win counts 1 a loss -1. You get a quarter point bonus for road wins and a quarter point penalty for home losses. Comparatively the bonus/penalty for winning/losing up a level (FBS) or down a level (II) is only a tenth of a point.

Also, it says that the NCAA SRS does consider margin of victory with a cap of 21 points. No details on how exactly it's incorporated into the formula. I'd heard that was on the table and rejected at one point but I don't remember if it was for 2014 or 2015.

Also they seem think the word "independent" is synonymous with the concept of interdependence.

[BisonTru]

I wasn't referring to any criteria other than how many wins it will likely take to get one of the 24 spots in the tournament. Maybe there have been years where a team with 6 wins gets selected but I doubt if this year will be one of them. 7 should, at least, get you into the conversation. If one of them is over an FBS, so much the better (even Wyoming). Drake won't help UND in the SOS though.

This will be the first year we have 14 at larges and only an 11 game season. A six win team has a better shot than ever to get in this year. Not saying it happens, but it could.

[BisonTru]

Is that link right?

The NCAA SRS formula is basically in there. Also, it says that the NCAA SRS does consider margin of victory with a cap of 21 points. I'd heard that was on the table and rejected at one point but I don't remember if it was for 2014 or 2015.

Pg. 16 Sec 2.3

[bisonaudit]

Pg. 16 Sec 2.3

Yeah, I saw the bit about 6 wins.

I'd moved on to another question about the NCAA SRS.

[missingnumber7]

Is that link right?

The NCAA SRS formula is basically in there. Basically a win counts 1 a loss -1. You get a quarter point bonus for road wins and a quarter point penalty for home losses. Comparatively the bonus/penalty for winning/losing up a level (FBS) or down a level (II) is only a tenth of a point.

Also, it says that the NCAA SRS does consider margin of victory with a cap of 21 points. No details on how exactly it's incorporated into the formula. I'd heard that was on the table and rejected at one point but I don't remember if it was for 2014 or 2015.

Also they seem think the word "independent" is synonymous with the concept of interdependence.

There's 2 parts of it though. Its the SOS which pulls in the 21 point cap, and the WL which is the 1/-1 for neutral .75/-1.25 for home, 1.25/-.75 for road, 1.35/-.65 FBS road, .65/-1.35 for D2 home.

I'm adding that piece to my massey spreadsheet. I'm not sure where they pull the SOS from. I am looking to see if last years are published.

[bisonaudit]

There's 2 parts of it though. Its the SOS which pulls in the 21 point cap, and the WL which is the 1/-1 for neutral .75/-1.25 for home, 1.25/-.75 for road, 1.35/-.65 FBS road, .65/-1.35 for D2 home.

I'm adding that piece to my massey spreadsheet. I'm not sure where they pull the SOS from. I am looking to see if last years are published.

It doesn't say the margin of victory only applies to SOS. It says it's part of the SRS, but it's totally silent on how it's incorporated or what weight it's given.

The SOS is the average of your opponents SRS ratings which consist of 2 parts WL factor and 1 part SOS (again no word on where or at what weight margin of victory is considered, seems like they just tacked it onto the end which makes me wonder if they're actually doing it at all).

[td577]

Going by last year's SRS and forgetting about regional matchup and just seeding by the ranking system. The field should have looked something like this:

SE Louisiana/Idaho State vs. 1. NDSU
Liberty/Montana vs. 2. Jax State
Sacred Heart/ISUb vs 3. CCU
Eastern Kentucky/Sam Houston vs. 4. ISUr
Fordham/Bethune-Cookman vs 5. New Hampshire
UNI/Richmond vs 6. EWU
James Madison/San Diego vs. 7. Villanova
SDSU/Morgan State vs. 8. Chattanooga

When you put back in the regional business, it really isn't too far off. I would say the selection committee stayed pretty true to the SRS. They did mess with some of the seedings, but the top 8 seeds were the top 8 in the SRS, just not the same order.

There were really only two instances where the committee strayed from the SRS and I didn't go back and look at the seasons that these four teams had which might have swayed their decision. Montana State and SFA were in while Idaho State and Bethune/Cookman were out despite having ratings which should have suggested otherwise. Idaho State being the most glaring omission as they were ahead in the SRS, GPI, and just about every other poll over both schools that were selected.

The bottom line is that I would be fairly confident in saying the committee stays pretty true to the SRS and it would take the bottom of the system to see where there might be differences from the rating to who they select. This actually goes against what I said earlier when committee members in past years making it seem like they was some serious lobbying to get their schools or conferences a second look. Maybe the system is what it is and we aren't giving the selection committee enough credit for using the tools they have. I would say they would have done a little better by using the SRS for seeding as having seen the actual top four in NDSU, ISUr, and CCU; there seedings were a bit off. Without seeing all the methodology of the SRS, like how the score differential now plays a part, it would be difficult to replicate what will coming in about 11 days. The GPI and SRS do not reflect that well, so the GPI, whenever updated this week, would not be a very close indicator. A person could replicate last year's SRS system but would be taking a stab at the magnitude of scoring margins for this year.

[td577]

There's 2 parts of it though. Its the SOS which pulls in the 21 point cap, and the WL which is the 1/-1 for neutral .75/-1.25 for home, 1.25/-.75 for road, 1.35/-.65 FBS road, .65/-1.35 for D2 home.

I'm adding that piece to my massey spreadsheet. I'm not sure where they pull the SOS from. I am looking to see if last years are published.

The SOS part of the SRS is a simple average of all the opponents. That is how the wording seems to me.

"A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season."

[td577]

It doesn't say the margin of victory only applies to SOS. It says it's part of the SRS, but it's totally silent on how it's incorporated or what weight it's given.

The SOS is the average of your opponents SRS ratings which consist of 2 parts WL factor and 1 part SOS (again no word on where or at what weight margin of victory is considered, seems like they just tacked it onto the end which makes me wonder if they're actually doing it at all).

This is all I got from it. Am I missing something?

"Finally, new for the 2015 season, margin of victory will be factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating. This component is
capped at 21 points."

[bisonaudit]

This is all I got from it. Am I missing something?

"Finally, new for the 2015 season, margin of victory will be factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating. This component is
capped at 21 points."

No. You're not missing anything. Their document is.

Which is where my questions started because I remember seeing something somewhere else about adding margin of victory to the SRS that said they considered it and rejected it. What I don't remember how long ago that was. It could have been before the 2014 season, and they could have reconsidered and actually added it for 2015. Or it could have been after the 2014 season and the document we're looking at wasn't updated for the decision to not actually incorporate margin of victory.

[missingnumber7]

The SOS part of the SRS is a simple average of all the opponents. That is how the wording seems to me.

"A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season."
I'm definitely interested in how the weighting for margin of victory is.

Currently the big sky WL numbers are:
SUU 5.15
EWU 3.75
PSU 5.85
NAU 3.25
UM .75
Weber 1.1
UND .85
UNC .65
MSU -1.35
Poly -2.15
Sac St -4.75
ISU -4.15
Davis -6.55

The best UND could do is 2.85

[bisonaudit]

I found the reference to them considering and rejecting margin of victory. It was in the summer of 2014. So maybe it really is going to be in the SRS for this year.

[bisonaudit]

I found the reference to them considering and rejecting margin of victory. It was in the summer of 2014. So maybe it really is going to be in the SRS for this year.

Confirmed. Found the minutes on NCAA.org for June 2015 meeting approving the addition of margin of victory to the SRS.

[NDSUBowler]

Why has the GPI poll not been released yet? It's always released on Tuesday but there is nothing that I can find.

[missingnumber7]

Why has the GPI poll not been released yet? It's always released on Tuesday but there is nothing that I can find.

The computers broke after last Saturday?

[89MTBISON]

nice little article http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/963-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-10-2015

[CaBisonFan]

nice little article http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/963-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-10-2015Thanks for the link. Good read.

[BisonNeil]

Well, Jacksonville State is not your typical OVC team, according to this STATS article.

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20151112111210939637204

[Bison 4 Life]

Well, Jacksonville State is not your typical OVC team, according to this STATS article.

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20151112111210939637204

Neither was EIU or 2014 Jacksonville St.

[td577]

Why has the GPI poll not been released yet? It's always released on Tuesday but there is nothing that I can find.

Still no GPI.


The computers broke after last Saturday?

You may be right.

[Bison 4 Life]

Maybe they don't want to show us on top again.

[tjbison]

Well, Jacksonville State is not your typical OVC team, according to this STATS article.

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20151112111210939637204

They get the 1 and lose the opener....

[bruinbison]

nice little article http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/963-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-10-2015

One interesting comment from this article is the following:



X-No. 5 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-2 Missouri Valley) at South Dakota (5-4, 3-3), 2 p.m. - The winning coach, either South Dakota State's John Stiegelmeier or USD's Joe Glenn, may become the favorite for Missouri Valley coach of the year.

[ByeSonBusiness]

One interesting comment from this article is the following:

Both of them would have strong arguments.

[missingnumber7]

Both of them would have strong arguments.

If USD wins out I think Glenn is hands down coach of year.

[td577]

If USD wins out I think Glenn is hands down coach of year.

I agree. I would say if USD wins out, Glenn would get attention for national recognition. He would have as many quality wins as anyone and basically forced themselves into the playoffs with a program that got something like 10 total votes between all the polls before the season started.

[Bison bison]

What makes you think SDSU and ISUr are going to choke like the Bison did?

[missingnumber7]

What makes you think SDSU and ISUr are going to choke like the Bison did?

What makes you think its about SDSU and ISUr choking and not about USD performing at a high level?

[td577]

What makes you think SDSU and ISUr are going to choke like the Bison did?

I think SDSU and ISUr are heavy favorites and should win. I also think if USD pulls off a couple of victories to finish the year, then Glenn has done an incredible job this year and any recognition would be deserved.

[THEsocalledfan]

I think SDSU and ISUr are heavy favorites and should win. I also think if USD pulls off a couple of victories to finish the year, then Glenn has done an incredible job this year and any recognition would be deserved.

I'd love to see Coach Glenn beat SDSU and ride off into the sunset. What he has done in Vermin town is nothing short of remarkable.

[El_Chapo]

NDSU Back at #1 gpi index https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=469229133263768&id=173056579547693

[Mr Pep Band]

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20151110gpi.html

[Bison 4 Life]

but but but USD!