NDSU Grad's Picks/Hensley Ratings

[Captain Cat]

It seems a graduate from NDSU has picked UNI to win. I did some research and this guy is 98% correct. Pretty smart people up there.

http://www.hensleyratings.com/schedule/2014/week-11/fcs/2

[Nel360]

So are the guys in Vegas. NDSU -9

[El_Chapo]

Cappy come find me b4 game, ill give you 10 points. $20.

[GOBISON123]

Maybe everybody knows this, but I thought this was interesting ..I am watching this game against UNI last year and 1st play of the game UNI with a big special team play force a fumble. ....also looking at how UNI won against redbirds last week....putting these two togther.....UNI special team is scary.

[Captain Cat]

I should give you points.

[THEsocalledfan]

Cappy come find me b4 game, ill give you 10 points. $20.

That not the real Cappy......

[Bison 4 Life]

His rating is skewed by the FBS schedule.

If this game is within 10 pts I'd be surprised.

[Hammerhead]

We fumbled 2 kick returns inside our own 30 last year and UNI only managed to turn those into field goals.


Maybe everybody knows this, but I thought this was interesting ..I am watching this game against UNI last year and 1st play of the game UNI with a big special team play force a fumble. ....also looking at how UNI won against redbirds last week....putting these two togther.....UNI special team is scary.

[stevdock]

His rating is skewed by the FBS schedule.

If this game is within 10 pts I'd be surprised.

Widest spread since we joined the Valley is 15 pts (3-8 year), with most games being 10 points or less. So odds are you are going to be surprised.

[THEsocalledfan]

Widest spread since we joined the Valley is 15 pts (3-8 year), with most games being 10 points or less. So odds are you are going to be surprised.

Lets use UN_ style transitive properties. We killed ISU (the real B12 one). ISU beat Iowa. Iowa beat UNI.

Thus, we kill UNI. pretty simple.

[Bison 4 Life]

Widest spread since we joined the Valley is 15 pts (3-8 year), with most games being 10 points or less. So odds are you are going to be surprised.

Maybe but the shape they are in now if NDSU is focused and Polasek stops dicking around at the beginning of the game, it shouldn't be close.

[bisonaudit]

It seems a graduate from NDSU has picked UNI to win. I did some research and this guy is 98% correct. Pretty smart people up there.

http://www.hensleyratings.com/schedule/2014/week-11/fcs/2

His computer program is agnostic about who's playing the actual games so I don't assign any kind of disloyalty to the programmer. What do you want him to do, stick a line of code in there that 'fixes' all of NDSU's predicted outcomes?

I looked at his paper. I like the idea of the strength of victory calculation. I didn't see where he tested the predictive power of the model anywhere. He did test it against the polling and the average performance of other computer models but I didn't see where he tested the model's predictions against actual outcomes for games.

[JDZ]

this guy is 98% correct.

98% correct at what? Predicting future games? Fitting his results to past games? Predicting the end of the world?

[SoCalBison]

I didn't take the time to read his methodology (sue me), but the only advantage he gives to UNI is strength of schedule. And by a narrow margin. On that basis he awards UNI with an upset. Sorry, but I don't see it. If you want to pretend to use a computer model to hide your own picks, that's fine. But predicting an upset when the numbers show otherwise--I don't see it.

[Captain Cat]

His rating is skewed by the FBS schedule.

If this game is within 10 pts I'd be surprised.

Me too....UNI 37 ndsu 28

[CaBisonFan]

Me too....UNI 37 ndsu 2837...:rofl:...

[Mr Meaty]

Me too....UNI 37 ndsu 28

Capt Kitty meant to add the 3 and 7 together for a score of
Purple Kitties 10
Bison 28

[yopaulie]

98% correct at what? Predicting future games? Fitting his results to past games? Predicting the end of the world?

Yes, where did you come up with the 98%? I'm already starting to think about retiring on a beach somewhere with my future winnings....