Playoff outlook

[missingnumber7]

Updated after 10/25 games. Teams are placed in order of Conf standings to give view of eliminated teams still vying for conference championships.
7 wins Must win out or win conferenceEliminatedConference Champ/Autobid winner
Big Sky
EWU
NAU
ID St
Montana St
Poly
UM
Sacramento St

Big South
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Charleston Southern



CAA
New Hampshire
Villanova
James Madison
Richmond
William & Mary
Albany


MEAC
North Carolina A&T
Bethune-Cookman
SC State
Morgan St WTF
NC Central


MVFC
NDSU
Illinois St
Northern Iowa
Indiana St
SDSU
Youngstown St



NEC
Sacred Heart
Bryant
Wagner


OVC
Jacksonville St
Eastern Kentucky
Tenn-Martin

Patriot
Fordham
Bucknell


Pioneer
San Diego
Drake
Dayton


Southern
Chattanooga
Samford
Western Carolina


Southland
Southeastern Louisiana
Sam Houston
Stephen F. Austin
Lamar


SWAC
Alabama St



I have updated so that only the teams that have a chance to either win their conference or become playoff eligible are listed.

Only 1 team left playing that could reach (probably will) 7 wins, Cal Poly. Everything else is finalized.

Who's In
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
CAA: New Hampshire
MEAC: Morgan St
MVFC: North Dakota St
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC: Jacksonville St
Patriot: Fordham
Pioneer: San Diego
Southern: Chattanooga
Southland: Sam Houston (I jumped the gun)
At Large
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Playoff Eligible Teams (30 teams currently eligible):
Montana St
Northern Arizona
Montana
Sacramento St
Coastal Carolina
Charleston Southern
Villanova
Richmond
James Madison
William & Mary
Bethune-Cookman
North Carolina A&T
South Carolina St
North Carolina Central
Illinois St
Youngstown St
SDSU
Indiana St
Northern Iowa
Bryant
Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee Martin
Bucknell
Dayton
Drake
Samford
Western Carolina
SFA
Southeast Louisiana
Lamar

[Bison03]

Great thread. I hope you update this every week. It's cool to see what teams are still alive.

[missingnumber7]

Great thread. I hope you update this every week. It's cool to see what teams are still alive.

I will do that, I will also update who's gonna win conferences or what the countdown to win is.

[taper]

Could drop the SWAC if you want, they won't be in. Or add the Ivy's if you want to be complete.

[NDSUstudent]

Technically a SWAC team could make it if they don't qualify for the SWAC title game.

Grambling and Southern though obviously disqualify themselves by scheduling a game during the playoffs.

[MNLonghorn10]

pop quiz...who can reel off what state these colleges are in off the top of their heads?

Im fucked after the Big sky, missouri valley, Ohio valley and parts of the southland

[HerdBoy]

Stetson? Has to be Texas. Valerie Perrine, I mean Valparaiso is Ohio?

[bisonpride4ever]

Stetson? Has to be Texas. Valerie Perrine, I mean Valparaiso is Ohio?

Stetson is in Florida


Sent using both a Speak-n-Spell and an Etch-a-Sketch

[IzzyFlexion]

Stetson? Has to be Texas. Valerie Perrine, I mean Valparaiso is Ohio?

Valparaiso is in Valparaiso, Indiana (NW Indiana.)
Some argue that it is one of the NW Indiana Chicago suburbs but it's a little east of that mess.
It's one of those "you must sign a morality clause" schools.

[IndyBison]

Valparaiso is in Valparaiso, Indiana (NW Indiana.)
Some argue that it is one of the NW Indiana Chicago suburbs but it's a little east of that mess.
It's one of those "you must sign a morality clause" schools.

It's still pretty of what is known as The Region. They associate more with Chicago than the state of Indiana. It's a love-hate relationship. Very good school.

Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk

[Flow 2-3-4-5]

Valparaiso is in Valparaiso, Indiana (NW Indiana.)
Some argue that it is one of the NW Indiana Chicago suburbs but it's a little east of that mess.
It's one of those "you must sign a morality clause" schools.


So I'm guessing you didn't get accepted to Valparaiso. ;-)

[THEsocalledfan]

Technically a SWAC team could make it if they don't qualify for the SWAC title game.

Grambling and Southern though obviously disqualify themselves by scheduling a game during the playoffs.

Why do they have a title game rather than go in the playoffs? Grambling St., for example, despite recent problems, is a program with some history; you'd think they'd want the exposure of ESPN, etc.

[bisonaudit]

Why do they have a title game rather than go in the playoffs? Grambling St., for example, despite recent problems, is a program with some history; you'd think they'd want the exposure of ESPN, etc.

The conference title is on ESPNU.

[missingnumber7]

Why do they have a title game rather than go in the playoffs? Grambling St., for example, despite recent problems, is a program with some history; you'd think they'd want the exposure of ESPN, etc.

Grambling and Southern play the Classic on NBC I believe or it has been in the past.

[missingnumber7]

Could drop the SWAC if you want, they won't be in. Or add the Ivy's if you want to be complete.

As NDSUstudent stated, SWAC could make the playoffs if there was a team that quilified that wasn't already scheduled to play the first week of the playoffs. The way things look this year there won't be an eligible team, especially with 4 teams inelligible for the playoffs.

The Ivy does not allow teams to participate in the postseason because of the timing of the games.

[bisonaudit]

As NDSUstudent stated, SWAC could make the playoffs if there was a team that quilified that wasn't already scheduled to play the first week of the playoffs. The way things look this year there won't be an eligible team, especially with 4 teams inelligible for the playoffs.

The Ivy does not allow teams to participate in the postseason because of the timing of the games.

The Ivy thing is interesting. Harvard actually competes in more intercollegiate sports than any other institution in the country. 41 of the 42 teams they field compete in the post season. Only football does not. The no post season football thing goes all the way back to the founding of the conference in the middle 1950s and apparently there's no appetite among its members to change it.

[missingnumber7]

The Ivy thing is interesting. Harvard actually competes in more intercollegiate sports than any other institution in the country. 41 of the 42 teams they field compete in the post season. Only football does not. The no post season football thing goes all the way back to the founding of the conference in the middle 1950s and apparently there's no appetite among its members to change it.

I would like to play one of those guys just to see where they really are at. They don't play to much over their head in OOC games, usually Patriot an occational CAA, NEC, that kinda stuff.

[bisonaudit]

I would like to play one of those guys just to see where they really are at. They don't play to much over their head in OOC games, usually Patriot an occational CAA, NEC, that kinda stuff.

Yeah, they stay pretty close to home, too. Harvard just played @ Georgetown the other weekend. It was their 4th game ever below the Mason-Dixon line, and one of the other three was last year (maybe 2 years ago) @ San Diego.

[missingnumber7]

Yeah, they stay pretty close to home, too. Harvard just played @ Georgetown the other weekend. It was their 4th game ever below the Mason-Dixon line, and one of the other three was last year (maybe 2 years ago) @ San Diego.

I thought what Army did for Yale was pretty cool, and then Yale beats them, that visit ain't gonna happen again.

[missingnumber7]

I thought what Army did for Yale was pretty cool, and then Yale beats them, that visit ain't gonna happen again.

And it also gives us another dig over the Big Sky...even the Ivy League can beat an FBS school.

[JDZ]

As NDSUstudent stated, SWAC could make the playoffs if there was a team that quilified that wasn't already scheduled to play the first week of the playoffs. The way things look this year there won't be an eligible team, especially with 4 teams inelligible for the playoffs.
Has a SWAC team ever made the playoffs? If so, when was the last time?


The Ivy does not allow teams to participate in the postseason because of the timing of the games.
What is their argument with the timing of the games? Please 'splain.

[missingnumber7]

Has a SWAC team ever made the playoffs? If so, when was the last time?


What is their argument with the timing of the games? Please 'splain.

Jackson St in 1995 was the last one I ever found and they were conf champs that year.

Ivy does not participate because of an agreement between the school presidents in 1948. I'm not sure why they haven't changed it because the agreement was in place to keep them from playing in a bowl game to just make money when they weren't playing for a championship. The move to D1-AA and then FCS should over ride that rule, however the conference leadership argues tradition.
http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/705-plain-and-simple-the-ivy-playoff-ban-is-discrimination
That is a good article that talks about it more.

[56BISON73]

Jackson St in 1995 was the last one I ever found and they were conf champs that year.

Ivy does not participate because of an agreement between the school presidents in 1948. I'm not sure why they haven't changed it because the agreement was in place to keep them from playing in a bowl game to just make money when they weren't playing for a championship. The move to D1-AA and then FCS should over ride that rule, however the conference leadership argues tradition.
http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/705-plain-and-simple-the-ivy-playoff-ban-is-discrimination
That is a good article that talks about it more.

A very good read!!!

[missingnumber7]

A very good read!!!

I find the use of words, interesting. I can't say that I agree with his side, but I definately don't agree with the Conf Commissioner's side of, this is how it has always been. Some of my biggest beef with military stuff is, its always been this way so why change now.

[bisonaudit]

I find the use of words, interesting. I can't say that I agree with his side, but I definately don't agree with the Conf Commissioner's side of, this is how it has always been. Some of my biggest beef with military stuff is, its always been this way so why change now.

The discrimination angle seems a little ginned up and clunky. Apparently the point was to emphasize the connection between the original bowl game ban and segregationist money rather than the notions of tradition and academics which are often sited in defense of continuing not to participate in an NCAA sanctioned post season tournament.

[56BISON73]

I find the use of words, interesting. I can't say that I agree with his side, but I definately don't agree with the Conf Commissioner's side of, this is how it has always been. Some of my biggest beef with military stuff is, its always been this way so why change now.

Whats interesting is they are using the SAME reasoning that the NCAA has used for years for not having a playoff. But they allow bowl games and all the other sports have National Championships. Not to mention Championships at every division level for every sport. Except the big schools will lose class room time if they have to play 15 games? But basketball players wont lose classroom time when they play 30 games?
:biggrin:

[bisonaudit]

Whats interesting is they are using the SAME reasoning that the NCAA has used for years for not having a playoff. But they allow bowl games and all the other sports have National Championships. Not to mention Championships at every division level for every sport. Except the big schools will lose class room time if they have to play 15 games? But basketball players wont lose classroom time when they play 30 games?
:biggrin:

For a bunch of smart guys, they don't make a damn bit of sense.

[CAS4127]

For a bunch of smart guys, they don't make a damn bit of sense.

Sounds like some of the self-proclaimed smart guys here!


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[IzzyFlexion]

So I'm guessing you didn't get accepted to Valparaiso. ;-)

You would be correct about that.

http://www.morethings.com/fan/saturday_night_live/jon_lovitz/jon_lovitz-devil-snl-36.jpg

[missingnumber7]

Updated after games yesterday.

[SDSUAlum08]

Thanks for updating this. State should be underlined now. They'll have to win out to get a shot at the playoffs.

[missingnumber7]

Thanks for updating this. State should be underlined now. They'll have to win out to get a shot at the playoffs.

While they have to win out for a legitimate shot at the playoffs, they can still withstand 1 loss to reach playoff eligibity because they redefined the playing down to a Non-D1 team win can count towards the 7 win total.

[THEsocalledfan]

While they have to win out for a legitimate shot at the playoffs, they can still withstand 1 loss to reach playoff eligibity because they redefined the playing down to a Non-D1 team win can count towards the 7 win total.

While in theory you are right, I just don't see it with another loss and who would be above them.

[CAS4127]

While they have to win out for a legitimate shot at the playoffs, they can still withstand 1 loss to reach playoff eligibity because they redefined the playing down to a Non-D1 team win can count towards the 7 win total.

I thought it had to be D2 at least for game to count? Is that inaccurate?


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[THEsocalledfan]

I thought it had to be D2 at least for game to count? Is that inaccurate?


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I did forget they were D3......my goodness.....

[missingnumber7]

I thought it had to be D2 at least for game to count? Is that inaccurate?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Ok, so here is what I found. It appears they have just changed the requirement to 6 D1 wins

1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket. Per NCAA
Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record,
(2) strength of schedule, and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents;
5. If a committee member’s institution is under consideration, that committee member will not be allowed in the room during
discussions involving his/her team and may not vote for his/her team during the voting process. Similarly, a committee
member from a conference office may not be present during discussions, nor vote for any team from his/her conference.

Also.

Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are also not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

[Mayville Bison]

Here is a good playoff watch from someone I've been following for a while: Chris Lang. I don't even remember where I got tipped off on his blog, but he's very knowledgeable when it comes to FCS. A little biased towards the east-coast, but does a good job none-the-less.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/fcs-playoff-watch-three-weeks-out/article_cb3e7b5c-62b2-11e4-9777-0017a43b2370.html

Says SDSU has to win out while UNI could get in with 5 losses since they beat ISUr.

[missingnumber7]

Here is a good playoff watch from someone I've been following for a while: Chris Lang. I don't even remember where I got tipped off on his blog, but he's very knowledgeable when it comes to FCS. A little biased towards the east-coast, but does a good job none-the-less.



You've just described 75% of the FCS writers out there.

[missingnumber7]

Big Sky:
Eastern Washington

[missingnumber7]

Big South:
Liberty

[Mayville Bison]

You've just described 75% of the FCS writers out there.

I threw that in there as a habit. Seeing his reasoning and playoff projections, he has more of a clue to what's going on than most when it comes to FCS.

Dom's FCS Poll is a mess. He jumps Richmond up quite a bit for beating his #2 Nova (although still behind Nova even with a similar resume) but doesn't jump up Cal Poly after beating his #8 MSU. Cal Poly is #23 while MSU/UM is 14/15? I'm also going to skip right past Coastal at #2 being ahead of New Hampshire.

[bisonaudit]

I know its a little early, but I'm gonna look at teams that still have a chance for a conference championship/autobid.

Big Sky: Holy Freaking crap the sky is falling...Could legitimately end up with 3 or 4 way tie.
EWU:UM 11/8, @Port St 11/21...lost to NAU
Poly: @Id St 11/8, Davis 11/15, @San Diego 11/22....lost to NAU
ID St: Poly 11/8, @ MSU 11/15, Weber 11/22...lost to EWU
UM: @ EWU 11/8, @ SUU 11/15, MSU 11/22...lost to Poly
MSU: PSU 11/8, ID ST 11/15, @ UM 11/22...lost to Poly
NAU: Davis 11/8, @ UND 11/15, SUU 11/22...lost to UNC

Easiest path...NAU
Toughest...UM

Tie breakers:
1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Record against common SCHEDULED CONFERENCE opponents in descending order.
3. Record vs. common Conference opponents played as NON-CONFERENCE games in descending order.
4. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents.
5. Sagarin Ratings.
6. Coin Flip

Non-Conf games count in head to head.

The coin flip may be redundant. He only publishes to two decimals but the teams are ranked in order and I don't think I've ever seen a flat footed tie. Of course I haven't been looking for one either.

[missingnumber7]

CAA:
UNH: @ Maine
Nova:@ Del

Not really sure why they haven't declared a conf champ. If UNH were to lose to Maine and Nova win, there is no way that Richmond would end up ahead of Maine and thus UNH would win under tiebreaker #2.

4.03. Tie-Breaking formats.
1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each
other, the win-loss percentage is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a
group rather than individually.
2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When
arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied
teams as a group rather than individually.
3. Jeff Sagarin “ELO_CHESS” computation. (Located on USAToday.com & Sagarin ratings page)
4.04 Tie-Breaker Operating principles.
1. All ties are broken in descending order.
2. Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts back to the beginning with the
remaining tied teams.
4.05 For non-automatic qualifier purposes, multiple tied teams will be recognized as conference champions.

[missingnumber7]

MEAC:
Morgan ST

[missingnumber7]

Mvfc:
Ndsu

[missingnumber7]

NEC:
Sacred Heart

[missingnumber7]

OVC:
Jacksonville St

[missingnumber7]

Patriot
Fordham

[missingnumber7]

Pioneer
San Diego

[missingnumber7]

Southern
Chattanooga

[missingnumber7]

SWAC: I'm going to put these in here with the understanding that the West and East winners will play for the conf championship, also that Grambling/Southern cannot be in due to the Classic.
East:
Alcorn: Arkansas P-B, Jackson St
Alabama St: @Grambling, Stillman
West:
Grambling: Alabama St, No Game, @ Southern
Southern: MVSU, No game, Grambling


All teams included have a chance to reach 6 D1 wins this season. In the East the team that doesn't make the Championship game would be eligible for the playoffs as an at large entrant.
The tiebreaker is for Conference Championship consideration only.
1. TWO TEAM TIE
a. Head‐to‐head competition between the two tied teams.
b. Records of the tied teams within the division.
c. Head‐to‐head competition versus the team within the division with the best
overall (divisional and non‐divisional) Conference record and proceeding through
the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
d. Overall record versus non‐division teams.
e. Combined record versus all common non‐divisional teams.
f. Record versus common non‐divisional team with the best overall Conference
(divisional and non‐divisional) record and proceeding through other common
non‐divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
g. Coin flip
2. THREE (OR MORE) TEAM TIE
(Once the tie has been reduced to two teams, go to the two‐team tie breaker format)
a. Head‐to‐head competition between the two tied teams.
b. Records of the tied teams within the division.
c. Head‐to‐head competition versus the team within the division with the best
overall (divisional and non‐divisional) Conference record and proceeding through
the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
d. Overall record versus non‐division teams.
e. Combined record versus all common non‐divisional teams.
f. Record versus common non‐divisional team with the best overall Conference
(divisional and non‐divisional) record and proceeding through other common
non‐divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
g. Best point differential between the tied teams in head‐to‐head matchups
h. Coin Flip

[missingnumber7]

I threw that in there as a habit. Seeing his reasoning and playoff projections, he has more of a clue to what's going on than most when it comes to FCS.

Dom's FCS Poll is a mess. He jumps Richmond up quite a bit for beating his #2 Nova (although still behind Nova even with a similar resume) but doesn't jump up Cal Poly after beating his #8 MSU. Cal Poly is #23 while MSU/UM is 14/15? I'm also going to skip right past Coastal at #2 being ahead of New Hampshire.

Most FCS bloggers/writers are blind of FCS as a whole outside of the conference/school they write about. Even Dom gets that way sometimes, other than BSC/MVFC teams and teams NDSU has played in the past he really doesn't have a good feel for other conferences.

Poly's loss at NAU is a headscratcher, I think they should be ranked higher, but the BSC is a mess, especially when you look at how many of the teams with good records happen to avoid each other.

[Tatanka]

Most FCS bloggers/writers are blind of FCS as a whole outside of the conference/school they write about. Even Dom gets that way sometimes, other than BSC/MVFC teams and teams NDSU has played in the past he really doesn't have a good feel for other conferences.

Poly's loss at NAU is a headscratcher, I think they should be ranked higher, but the BSC is a mess, especially when you look at how many of the teams with good records happen to avoid each other.


In the bsc several teams have good records because they avoid each other and they get a weekly buffet of cupcake.

[missingnumber7]

Southland:

SHSU

[A1pigskin]

When will the first playoff game be?

[missingnumber7]

When will the first playoff game be?

Nov 29th for the all but 8 teams that make the playoffs.

[1998braves64]

Nov 29th for the all but 8 ranked teams that make the playoffs.


Fixed for clarity.

[JDZ]

Fixed for clarity.

Nice try.

Here's my try for correctness:


Nov 29th for all but the 8 seeded teams that make the playoffs.

[El_Chapo]

can you update the original post # 1 please? awesome.

[1998braves64]

Nice try.

Here's my try for correctness:

Lol fail on my part :facepalm:

[missingnumber7]

Original post has been updated (again, I updated yesterday) to include Auto bid winners in Patriot and Southern Conferences.

[missingnumber7]

Everything has been updated to include tiebreakers that have been found on the website. The only one I cannot find is CAA.

[missingnumber7]

And the winner of the go buy a lottery ticket award is the Morgan St coach. He needed everything to fall in to place as there was only one way for them to win...and that was a 5 way tie....and it happened. I told you all no one wanted to win the MEAC.

[bisonpride4ever]

Craig Haley's play off predictions after today:

Stephen F. Austin-Montana State winner at No. 1 seed North Dakota State

Fordham-Liberty winner at No. 8 seed Coastal Carolina

Indiana State-Eastern Kentucky winner at No. 5 seed Villanova

Southeastern Louisiana-South Dakota State winner at No. 4 seed Illinois State

William & Mary-Richmond/Sam Houston State winner at No. 3 seed Jacksonville St

San Diego-Montana winner at No. 6 seed Eastern Washington

Sacred Heart-Northern Iowa winner at No. 7 seed Chattanooga

Morgan State-James Madison winner at No. 2 seed New Hampshire

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/writers/infcshuddle/archive/haley_11_22_2014.htm


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[SDSUAlum08]

MissingNumber, are you doing this again this year?

[missingnumber7]

MissingNumber, are you doing this again this year?

Give me a couple days and I'll get this going again.